League stage statistics with the probability on rank class and past results of clubs. Based on a simulation of remaining match results with club strength based on draw pots (and thus loosely based on UEFA coefficients). For more details see below.
| Europa League 2024/25 |
pld | pnts | probability on rank | results | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-8 | 9-16 | 17-24 | 25-36 | avg | std | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||||||
| Tottenham Hotspur | Eng | 2 | 6 | 75 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | W | W | ||||||||
| Lazio | Ita | 2 | 6 | 73 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 6.5 | 5.9 | W | W | ||||||||
| Olympique Lyon | Fra | 2 | 6 | 67 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | W | W | ||||||||
| Ajax | Ned | 2 | 4 | 56 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 9.3 | 7.3 | W | D | ||||||||
| Slavia Praha | Cze | 2 | 4 | 56 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9.4 | 7.2 | W | D | ||||||||
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Ger | 2 | 4 | 47 | 30 | 16 | 7 | 10.8 | 7.8 | D | W | ||||||||
| Glasgow Rangers | Sco | 2 | 3 | 38 | 32 | 20 | 11 | 12.7 | 8.3 | W | L | ||||||||
| Fenerbahçe | Tur | 2 | 4 | 30 | 31 | 24 | 15 | 14.4 | 8.6 | W | D | ||||||||
| Manchester United | Eng | 2 | 2 | 30 | 31 | 23 | 16 | 14.5 | 8.6 | D | D | ||||||||
| Anderlecht | Bel | 2 | 6 | 28 | 32 | 25 | 15 | 14.7 | 8.3 | W | W | ||||||||
| Olympiakos Piraeus | Gre | 2 | 3 | 28 | 31 | 24 | 16 | 14.9 | 8.6 | L | W | ||||||||
| FCSB | Rom | 2 | 6 | 25 | 32 | 27 | 16 | 15.2 | 8.3 | W | W | ||||||||
| Sporting Braga | Por | 2 | 3 | 25 | 30 | 25 | 19 | 15.8 | 8.8 | W | L | ||||||||
| Bodø/Glimt | Nor | 2 | 4 | 23 | 30 | 26 | 21 | 16.3 | 8.8 | W | D | ||||||||
| FC Porto | Por | 2 | 1 | 22 | 30 | 26 | 22 | 16.6 | 8.8 | L | D | ||||||||
| Galatasaray | Tur | 2 | 4 | 20 | 29 | 27 | 24 | 17.0 | 8.8 | W | D | ||||||||
| FC Midtjylland | Den | 2 | 4 | 20 | 29 | 28 | 23 | 17.1 | 8.7 | D | W | ||||||||
| AZ Alkmaar | Ned | 2 | 3 | 18 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 18.0 | 9.0 | W | L | ||||||||
| Athletic Bilbao | Esp | 2 | 4 | 14 | 26 | 29 | 31 | 19.0 | 8.7 | D | W | ||||||||
| AS Roma | Ita | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 19.0 | 9.1 | D | L | ||||||||
| Malmö FF | Swe | 2 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 29 | 32 | 19.3 | 9.0 | L | W | ||||||||
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Ger | 2 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 30 | 38 | 20.6 | 8.6 | D | W | ||||||||
| Viktoria Plzen | Cze | 2 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 27 | 41 | 21.3 | 8.8 | D | D | ||||||||
| IF Elfsborg | Swe | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 44 | 22.0 | 8.7 | L | W | ||||||||
| Real Sociedad | Esp | 2 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 27 | 48 | 22.7 | 8.8 | D | L | ||||||||
| Ferencváros | Hun | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 26 | 50 | 23.5 | 8.6 | L | L | ||||||||
| Maccabi Tel-Aviv | Isr | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 52 | 23.8 | 8.5 | L | L | ||||||||
| Ludogorets Razgrad | Bul | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 55 | 24.2 | 8.4 | L | D | ||||||||
| FC Twente Enschede | Ned | 2 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 55 | 24.3 | 8.4 | D | D | ||||||||
| Union Saint-Gilloise | Bel | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 55 | 24.5 | 8.4 | L | D | ||||||||
| PAOK Thessaloniki | Gre | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 58 | 25.0 | 8.3 | L | L | ||||||||
| Qarabag FK | Azb | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 67 | 26.9 | 7.8 | L | L | ||||||||
| OGC Nice | Fra | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 70 | 27.3 | 7.6 | D | L | ||||||||
| Dynamo Kyiv | Ukr | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 71 | 27.7 | 7.6 | L | L | ||||||||
| RFS Riga | Lat | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 78 | 29.1 | 6.8 | L | D | ||||||||
| Besiktas | Tur | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 78 | 29.3 | 6.9 | L | L | ||||||||
The probability on rank class is calculated by 50.000 random sets of remaining match results. Clubs are divided into the same pots as used by the draw of the league stage. A weight factor of 2 for scoring goals is used between clubs of the highest and the lowest pots, while other clubs have a weight factor in between. The number of goals in a match result is determined by a pseudo zero-inflated Poisson distribution with an average of about 3 goals per match.