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Europa League Stage Statistics 2024/25

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League stage statistics with the probability on rank class and past results of clubs. Based on a simulation of remaining match results with club strength based on draw pots (and thus loosely based on UEFA coefficients). For more details see below. The table is sorted by the average ranking position in the simulation. Results are ordered by the opponents draw pots (away and home), and the superscript number denotes the matchday.

Europa League
2024/25		 pld pnts probability on rank results
1-8 9-16 17-24 25-36 avg std 1A 1H 2A 2H 3A 3H 4A 4H
Lazio Ita 8 19 100 0 0 0 1.0 0.0 W6 W4 L8 W7 W1 D5 W3 W2
Athletic Bilbao Esp 8 19 100 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 D1 W3 W6 W2 W4 W8 L7 W5
Manchester United Eng 8 18 100 0 0 0 3.0 0.0 D2 W7 D3 W4 W6 W5 W8 D1
Tottenham Hotspur Eng 8 17 100 0 0 0 4.0 0.0 D6 D5 W2 W3 L4 W1 W7 W8
Eintracht Frankfurt Ger 8 16 100 0 0 0 5.0 0.0 L8 W4 L6 W7 W5 D1 W2 W3
Olympique Lyon Fra 8 15 100 0 0 0 6.0 0.0 W2 W6 D7 W1 W5 D8 D4 L3
Olympiakos Piraeus Gre 8 15 100 0 0 0 7.0 0.0 W7 D4 L1 W2 W3 W8 D5 D6
Glasgow Rangers Sco 8 14 100 0 0 0 8.0 0.0 L7 D6 D4 L2 W1 W8 W5 W3
Bodø/Glimt Nor 8 14 0 100 0 0 9.0 0.0 L5 W1 W3 W7 D2 L4 D8 W6
Anderlecht Bel 8 14 0 100 0 0 10.0 0.0 W6 D5 W2 W1 L7 W3 D4 L8
FCSB Rom 8 14 0 100 0 0 11.0 0.0 L3 L8 W2 D5 W7 W4 D6 W1
Ajax Ned 8 13 0 100 0 0 12.0 0.0 D2 L6 L5 W4 W3 W8 L7 W1
Real Sociedad Esp 8 13 0 100 0 0 13.0 0.0 L7 W5 W3 W8 L4 W6 D1 L2
Galatasaray Tur 8 13 0 100 0 0 14.0 0.0 L8 W4 D5 W1 D6 D7 D2 W3
AS Roma Ita 8 12 0 100 0 0 15.0 0.0 D5 W8 L7 W6 D4 W3 L2 D1
Viktoria Plzen Cze 8 12 0 100 0 0 16.0 0.0 D1 L6 D3 W4 W5 D2 L8 W7
Ferencváros Hun 8 12 0 0 100 0 17.0 0.0 L7 L2 L6 W8 W4 W5 L1 W3
FC Porto Por 8 11 0 0 100 0 18.0 0.0 L4 D2 W8 L7 L1 W6 D5 W3
AZ Alkmaar Ned 8 11 0 0 100 0 19.0 0.0 L3 W7 L8 W4 D6 D5 L2 W1
FC Midtjylland Den 8 11 0 0 100 0 20.0 0.0 L6 L5 W2 D8 W7 W3 L4 D1
Union Saint-Gilloise Bel 8 11 0 0 100 0 21.0 0.0 L8 D4 L1 W7 L3 D2 W5 W6
PAOK Thessaloniki Gre 8 10 0 0 100 0 22.0 0.0 L4 W7 L8 W6 L1 D3 W5 L2
FC Twente Enschede Ned 8 10 0 0 100 0 23.0 0.0 D1 L3 D6 D2 W7 L5 D4 W8
Fenerbahçe Tur 8 10 0 0 100 0 24.0 0.0 W5 D3 L4 D7 D8 W1 D2 L6
Sporting Braga Por 8 10 0 0 0 100 25.0 0.0 L6 W8 L2 W1 L7 L3 D4 W5
IF Elfsborg Swe 8 10 0 0 0 100 26.0 0.0 L8 W2 L1 D4 L3 W6 L5 W7
1899 Hoffenheim Ger 8 9 0 0 0 100 27.0 0.0 L3 L7 L5 D4 D1 W2 W8 D6
Besiktas Tur 8 9 0 0 0 100 28.0 0.0 L1 L2 W3 L5 L6 W4 L8 W7
Maccabi Tel-Aviv Isr 8 6 0 0 0 100 29.0 0.0 L4 L8 L1 L3 L7 L2 W5 W6
Slavia Praha Cze 8 5 0 0 0 100 30.0 0.0 L4 D2 L7 L5 W1 D8 L3 L6
Malmö FF Swe 8 5 0 0 0 100 31.0 0.0 D8 L1 L5 L3 W2 D6 L4 L7
RFS Riga Lat 8 5 0 0 0 100 32.0 0.0 L3 W7 L6 L5 L8 D2 L1 D4
Ludogorets Razgrad Bul 8 4 0 0 0 100 33.0 0.0 D5 L1 D8 D6 D2 L7 L3 L4
Dynamo Kyiv Ukr 8 4 0 0 0 100 34.0 0.0 L3 L1 L6 L4 D7 L5 L2 W8
OGC Nice Fra 8 3 0 0 0 100 35.0 0.0 L2 L5 L3 D1 L6 D8 L7 D4
Qarabag FK Azb 8 3 0 0 0 100 36.0 0.0 L1 L3 L8 L5 W4 L2 L6 L7

The probability on rank class is calculated by 50.000 random sets of remaining match results. Clubs are divided into the same pots as used by the draw of the league stage. A weight factor of 2 for scoring goals is used between clubs of the highest and the lowest pots, while other clubs have a weight factor in between. The number of goals in a match result is determined by a pseudo zero-inflated Poisson distribution with an average of about 3 goals per match.

Bert Kassies
bert@kassiesa.net