League stage statistics with the probability on rank class and past results of clubs. Based on a simulation of remaining match results with club strength based on draw pots (and thus loosely based on UEFA coefficients). For more details see below.
| Champions League 2024/25 |
pld | pnts | probability on rank | results | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-8 | 9-16 | 17-24 | 25-36 | avg | std | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||||||
| Borussia Dortmund | Ger | 2 | 6 | 74 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 6.1 | 5.5 | W | W | ||||||||
| Liverpool | Eng | 2 | 6 | 68 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 7.1 | 6.0 | W | W | ||||||||
| Juventus | Ita | 2 | 6 | 56 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 8.9 | 6.7 | W | W | ||||||||
| Benfica | Por | 2 | 6 | 56 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 8.9 | 6.7 | W | W | ||||||||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Ger | 2 | 6 | 56 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 9.0 | 6.7 | W | W | ||||||||
| Internazionale | Ita | 2 | 4 | 52 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 9.8 | 7.1 | D | W | ||||||||
| Manchester City | Eng | 2 | 4 | 49 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 10.2 | 7.2 | D | W | ||||||||
| Arsenal | Eng | 2 | 4 | 36 | 34 | 21 | 9 | 12.6 | 7.8 | D | W | ||||||||
| Atalanta | Ita | 2 | 4 | 34 | 34 | 22 | 10 | 13.0 | 7.9 | D | W | ||||||||
| Bayern München | Ger | 2 | 3 | 34 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 13.1 | 8.0 | W | L | ||||||||
| FC Barcelona | Esp | 2 | 3 | 33 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 13.2 | 8.0 | L | W | ||||||||
| Real Madrid | Esp | 2 | 3 | 30 | 34 | 24 | 12 | 13.9 | 8.1 | W | L | ||||||||
| Paris Saint-Germain | Fra | 2 | 3 | 30 | 34 | 24 | 12 | 13.9 | 8.1 | W | L | ||||||||
| Aston Villa | Eng | 2 | 6 | 25 | 34 | 28 | 13 | 14.7 | 7.8 | W | W | ||||||||
| Atlético Madrid | Esp | 2 | 3 | 23 | 32 | 27 | 18 | 15.9 | 8.4 | W | L | ||||||||
| Stade Brestois | Fra | 2 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 31 | 17 | 16.0 | 7.8 | W | W | ||||||||
| Club Brugge | Bel | 2 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 29 | 21 | 16.8 | 8.4 | L | W | ||||||||
| Sporting CP Lisbon | Por | 2 | 4 | 16 | 29 | 31 | 24 | 17.6 | 8.2 | W | D | ||||||||
| Lille OSC | Fra | 2 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 32 | 32 | 19.6 | 8.4 | L | W | ||||||||
| RB Leipzig | Ger | 2 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 32 | 32 | 19.8 | 8.4 | L | L | ||||||||
| AS Monaco | Fra | 2 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 32 | 34 | 20.1 | 8.2 | W | D | ||||||||
| Celtic | Sco | 2 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 32 | 35 | 20.4 | 8.4 | W | L | ||||||||
| Feyenoord | Ned | 2 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 39 | 21.1 | 8.3 | L | W | ||||||||
| Sparta Praha | Cze | 2 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 32 | 39 | 21.2 | 8.0 | W | D | ||||||||
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukr | 2 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 45 | 22.4 | 8.2 | D | L | ||||||||
| AC Milan | Ita | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 30 | 47 | 22.9 | 8.2 | L | L | ||||||||
| PSV Eindhoven | Ned | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 24.8 | 7.7 | L | D | ||||||||
| Dinamo Zagreb | Cro | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 62 | 25.8 | 7.6 | L | D | ||||||||
| Red Star Belgrade | Srb | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 65 | 26.4 | 7.4 | L | L | ||||||||
| Bologna | Ita | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 68 | 26.9 | 7.2 | D | L | ||||||||
| VfB Stuttgart | Ger | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 73 | 27.8 | 6.9 | L | D | ||||||||
| Young Boys | Sui | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 72 | 27.9 | 7.0 | L | L | ||||||||
| Girona FC | Esp | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 78 | 29.1 | 6.5 | L | L | ||||||||
| FC Salzburg | Aut | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 79 | 29.2 | 6.5 | L | L | ||||||||
| Sturm Graz | Aut | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 83 | 29.9 | 6.0 | L | L | ||||||||
| Slovan Bratislava | Svk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 83 | 30.0 | 6.1 | L | L | ||||||||
The probability on rank class is calculated by 50.000 random sets of remaining match results. Clubs are divided into the same pots as used by the draw of the league stage. A weight factor of 2 for scoring goals is used between clubs of the highest and the lowest pots, while other clubs have a weight factor in between. The number of goals in a match result is determined by a pseudo zero-inflated Poisson distribution with an average of about 3 goals per match.