League stage statistics with the probability on rank class and past results of clubs. Based on a simulation of remaining match results with club strength based on draw pots (and thus loosely based on UEFA coefficients). For more details see below. The table is sorted by the average ranking position in the simulation. Results are ordered by the opponents draw pots (away and home), and the superscript number denotes the matchday.
| Champions League 2024/25 |
pld | pnts | probability on rank | results | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-8 | 9-16 | 17-24 | 25-36 | avg | std | 1A | 1H | 2A | 2H | 3A | 3H | 4A | 4H | ||||||
| Liverpool | Eng | 4 | 12 | 95 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | W3 | 5 | W1 | W4 | 8 | 7 | 6 | W2 | ||
| Internazionale | Ita | 4 | 10 | 80 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 5.3 | 4.4 | D1 | 5 | 6 | W4 | W3 | W2 | 7 | 8 | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Ger | 4 | 9 | 70 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 6.9 | 5.3 | L3 | 6 | W1 | 8 | 5 | W2 | 7 | W4 | ||
| FC Barcelona | Esp | 4 | 9 | 69 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 6 | W3 | 7 | 8 | W4 | W2 | L1 | 5 | ||
| Sporting CP Lisbon | Por | 4 | 10 | 51 | 35 | 13 | 0 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 7 | W4 | 6 | 5 | D2 | W1 | W3 | 8 | ||
| AS Monaco | Fra | 4 | 10 | 37 | 40 | 23 | 1 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 8 | W1 | 6 | 5 | D2 | W3 | W4 | 7 | ||
| Atalanta | Ita | 4 | 8 | 37 | 37 | 23 | 4 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 8 | 6 | W2 | D1 | 5 | D3 | W4 | 7 | ||
| Arsenal | Eng | 4 | 7 | 36 | 37 | 23 | 5 | 12.0 | 6.8 | L4 | W2 | D1 | W3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | ||
| Manchester City | Eng | 4 | 7 | 36 | 36 | 23 | 6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 7 | D1 | 6 | 8 | L4 | 5 | W2 | W3 | ||
| Stade Brestois | Fra | 4 | 10 | 30 | 41 | 27 | 2 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | D3 | W2 | 6 | W4 | W1 | ||
| Aston Villa | Eng | 4 | 9 | 27 | 38 | 30 | 5 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 6 | W2 | L4 | 5 | W1 | 8 | 7 | W3 | ||
| Bayern München | Ger | 4 | 6 | 28 | 37 | 27 | 8 | 13.9 | 7.0 | L3 | 5 | 6 | W4 | 7 | W1 | L2 | 8 | ||
| Real Madrid | Esp | 4 | 6 | 25 | 37 | 29 | 8 | 14.2 | 7.0 | 5 | W3 | 6 | L4 | L2 | 7 | 8 | W1 | ||
| AC Milan | Ita | 4 | 6 | 24 | 37 | 30 | 10 | 14.6 | 7.1 | W4 | L1 | L2 | W3 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Ger | 4 | 7 | 23 | 37 | 31 | 10 | 14.6 | 7.1 | L4 | 6 | 7 | W2 | W1 | 5 | D3 | 8 | ||
| Juventus | Ita | 4 | 7 | 22 | 36 | 33 | 10 | 14.9 | 7.0 | W2 | 6 | 7 | 8 | D4 | W1 | 5 | L3 | ||
| Lille OSC | Fra | 4 | 7 | 17 | 35 | 35 | 12 | 15.8 | 7.0 | 7 | W2 | W3 | D4 | L1 | 8 | 5 | 6 | ||
| Benfica | Por | 4 | 6 | 18 | 34 | 35 | 13 | 16.0 | 7.1 | L4 | 7 | 8 | W2 | W1 | L3 | 5 | 6 | ||
| Celtic | Sco | 4 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 34 | 14 | 16.0 | 7.1 | L2 | W4 | D3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | W1 | ||
| Atlético Madrid | Esp | 4 | 6 | 18 | 33 | 34 | 16 | 16.4 | 7.3 | W4 | W1 | L2 | 7 | 8 | L3 | 5 | 6 | ||
| Club Brugge | Bel | 4 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 38 | 24 | 18.5 | 7.2 | 8 | L1 | L3 | 7 | 5 | 6 | W2 | W4 | ||
| Dinamo Zagreb | Cro | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 40 | 24 | 18.8 | 7.0 | L1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | W3 | 6 | W4 | D2 | ||
| Paris Saint-Germain | Fra | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 40 | 33 | 20.7 | 6.8 | 5 | 7 | L2 | L4 | 6 | D3 | 8 | W1 | ||
| Feyenoord | Ned | 4 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 38 | 35 | 20.8 | 6.8 | 5 | 7 | W3 | L1 | 8 | L4 | W2 | 6 | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Ned | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 38 | 39 | 21.4 | 6.7 | D3 | 8 | L1 | 5 | 7 | D2 | 6 | W4 | ||
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukr | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 48 | 23.2 | 6.4 | 8 | 6 | L3 | L2 | 5 | W4 | D1 | 7 | ||
| VfB Stuttgart | Ger | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 68 | 26.3 | 5.7 | L1 | 8 | W3 | L4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | D2 | ||
| Sparta Praha | Cze | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 76 | 27.5 | 5.2 | L3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 6 | W1 | D2 | L4 | ||
| RB Leipzig | Ger | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 78 | 28.1 | 4.9 | 5 | L3 | L1 | L2 | L4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | ||
| Girona FC | Esp | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 85 | 29.0 | 4.7 | L1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | L4 | L2 | 5 | W3 | ||
| FC Salzburg | Aut | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 85 | 29.1 | 4.8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | W4 | L3 | L1 | L2 | ||
| Young Boys | Sui | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 95 | 31.7 | 3.8 | L2 | L3 | L4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | L1 | ||
| Red Star Belgrade | Srb | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 95 | 31.8 | 3.8 | L2 | L4 | 6 | L1 | 8 | 7 | L3 | 5 | ||
| Bologna | Ita | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 96 | 32.0 | 3.6 | L2 | 7 | 6 | D1 | 8 | 5 | L3 | L4 | ||
| Sturm Graz | Aut | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 97 | 32.7 | 3.3 | L4 | 8 | 7 | L2 | 6 | L3 | L1 | 5 | ||
| Slovan Bratislava | Svk | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 99 | 33.7 | 2.8 | 8 | L2 | 6 | 5 | L1 | L4 | L3 | 7 | ||
The probability on rank class is calculated by 50.000 random sets of remaining match results. Clubs are divided into the same pots as used by the draw of the league stage. A weight factor of 2 for scoring goals is used between clubs of the highest and the lowest pots, while other clubs have a weight factor in between. The number of goals in a match result is determined by a pseudo zero-inflated Poisson distribution with an average of about 3 goals per match.