Forum

Author: eye1
Date: 16-08-2017, 16:09

I am wondering why is UEFA dividing clubs to groups before draws at qualification rounds and what are the criteria for this division?
I think it is unfair a seeded or a not seeded club to be drawn to certain unseed or seeded clubs only and not to all possible. Even worse there is just one draw which reflects to all groups. If higher seeded club of a group is drawn against the higher unseed club this should be in all groups.

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 16-08-2017, 16:23
Edited by: Forza-AZ
at: 16-08-2017, 16:24

UEFA makes these groups to prevent clubs from the same country drawing each other, and also to prevent clubs from "hostile countries" (Russia/Ukraine, Serbia/Kosovo, Armenia/Azerbaijan) to draw each other.

If you have an open draw this would get a rather mess if you have to select all possible opponents each time.

How exactly UEFA draws the teams into these groups is not known. For Q1 it is somewhat regional, for later rounds not. So it is still possible to draw each unseeded team for a certain seeded team (except same country and "hostile country" clubs).

Drawing for multiple groups at once is just to save time. They do randomize the teams in the groups, so not for each group the top seed would draw the top unseed if numbers 1 and 6 play each other.

Author: eye1
Date: 16-08-2017, 16:38

They can put balls of each club in a pot then draw home club of first pair. Then draw the away club. If there is conflict (both seeded/unseed, same country, etc) this club goes home team to second pair and draw again away club for first pair. If there is conflict with first pair again goes to second pair and if there is confict goes home club to third pair. It is really very easy procedure and surely more fair to all clubs

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 16-08-2017, 16:51

They could do it that way, but I don't see why it should be more fair then now? And it would take much more time and can get complicated fore the last pair(s) if a conflict will arise there.
It is still possible to draw each opponent, however UEFA splits the draw in 2 parts, a closed draw to set up the groups and then an open draw.

I agree it would be nice if UEFA gives the exact conditions they use to draw the groups, or make that part also open for everybody to see.

Author: elkjiaer
Date: 19-01-2018, 11:30

I would like to take the chance to ask about how the order of those two-legged ties in the qualification are decided.

I always thought that in all CL and EL qualification rounds, the order of legs (which team plays the first home match home) was random. Now I started digging into data and I have noticed some strange facts.

With focus on Europa League from 2009/2010: 4 qualification rounds are played. Teams are divided into seeded and unseeded and paired. Below you find for each qualification round the number of two-legged ties played and the percentage of times that the seeded team played the return match home (so first match away):

EL-Q1: 337 two-legged ties, 48% of return matches at home for seeded teams
EL-Q2: 339 two-legged ties, 51% of return matches at home for seeded teams
EL-Q3: 279 two-legged ties, 55% of return matches at home for seeded teams
EL-Q4: 271 two-legged ties, 61% of return matches at home for seeded teams

The difference between the rounds is statistically significant (p-value{0.01)

Question 1: is there any rule I am unaware of? why is that that in Q3 and Q4 most of the seeded teams are playing the return match at home?
Question 2: if the order of matches is random (no rule about which team plays the first match home), how do we explain this difference, which is statisticall significant?

When I looked at individual seasons from 2010 to 2018 some "unusual" behaviours where shown:

2012, EL-Q2: 90% of seeded teams played the return match at home
2013: EL-Q4: 84% of seeded teams played the return match at home
2014: EL-Q1: 74% of seeded teams played the return match at home
EL-Q4: 70% of seeded teams played the return match at home
2015: EL-Q4: 71% of seeded teams played the return match at home
2017: EL-Q3: 66% of seeded teams played the return match at home
EL-Q4: 64% of seeded teams played the return match at home

Anyone can kindly help explaining those results?

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 19-01-2018, 12:33

Question 1: is there any rule I am unaware of? why is that that in Q3 and Q4 most of the seeded teams are playing the return match at home?
There is no rule about seeding.

Question 2: if the order of matches is random (no rule about which team plays the first match home), how do we explain this difference, which is statisticall significant?

Since UEFA draws the matches in groups (5 or 6 matches at the same time by assigning numbers to the teams), a small difference in the draw makes a bigger difference in the number of matches with seeded away first.

So it is just random the difference you found.

Only other explanation I can think of is that the 2 balls (seeded and unseeded) are not mixed enough, so the person to draw can try to follow the seeded ball and takes it out last. We had this some years ago in the Dutch Cup in which in round 1 almost always the seeded teams were drawn at home.

Re: Draw procedure at qualification rounds
Author: elkjiaer Date: 19-01-2018, 13:07 Edited by: elkjiaer at: 19-01-2018, 13:17	Thanks for the kind and detailed explanation. Regarding EL it must be as you say. I think the most unusual result was achieved in 2011-2012 for EL-Q2. 38 out 40 seeded teams were drawn to play the return match at home, with the probability of this to happen being in the order of 1 over millions (or more)

Re: Draw procedure at qualification rounds
Author: elkjiaer Date: 22-01-2018, 08:52	Does anyone know if it possible somehow to see the following page also for the previous seasons? https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/seedcl2017.html I have tried changing from 2017 to 2016 in the link, but i got an error. I think it would be very interesting to be able to see those data

Re: Draw procedure at qualification rounds
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 22-01-2018, 09:29	See the History section: https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/history/index.html

Re: Draw procedure at qualification rounds
Author: amirbachar Date: 24-01-2018, 22:44	@elkjiaer, I'm not sure you understood what was being said. The teams are divided to groups of 5-6 teams, and then all 5 team groups are being drawn simultaneously. For example the draw is 1st seeded vs 3rd unseeded - the 1st seeded in each group would host the first leg. Your 1 in a million analysis assumes independence, and that is not the case.

Re: Draw procedure at qualification rounds
Author: ththth10 Date: 03-02-2018, 00:34	> (Russia/Ukraine, Serbia/Kosovo, Armenia/Azerbaijan) Kosovo is not a country but a province of Serbia. Temporarily governed by United Nations. That's all Enjoy this forum!

Re: Draw procedure at qualification rounds
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 03-02-2018, 09:46	About Kosovo, that depends who you ask. A lot of countries see Kosovo as independant country. Other countries (and UN) have a different opinion. But let's not make a political discussion in this football forum. Kosovo is member of UEFA, and so is a football-country just like all other UEFA-members.

Scroll Up

Add Reply