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Ranking uefa, seeded and other
Author: Pixel Date: 04-06-2017, 16:00	Hello, this is my first message...forgive my english. I would have some doubts about the uefa ranking...a few weeks ago in the europa league section there was this situation http://i.imgur.com/upAIO5b.png Well, how are the limits set ''unseeded'' and ''seeded'' ?? Depends perhaps on the current situation in the first round?? thank you

Re: Ranking uefa, seeded and other
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 04-06-2017, 16:28	This depends on the teams that still have to qualify from countries which didn't finish their league yet. Right now only Poland and Bulgaria have still matches to play tonight. So depending on the results in these countries the seeding limit can still change.

Author: Pixel
Date: 04-06-2017, 16:57

very clear ;-)

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If allowed, I would like to include some questions here

a) Have you ever manually calculated the various coeff uefa (country, team) ??

b) To establish seeded and unseeded of EL 17/18 they are used the Team Coefficients from 2012/13 to 16/17 ??

c) bert kassies (Which i think) on his site in the section seeding EL hypothesizes than to overcome Q1,Q2,ecc... are the teams seeded?? For me it yes , I wanted to confirm
d) You know some sites with calculations of the various rankings??

thank you :-)

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 04-06-2017, 17:14

a) Have you ever manually calculated the various coeff uefa (country, team) ??

Yes, I did. It's not difficult. For details check UEFA Coefficients calculation method.

b) To establish seeded and unseeded of EL 17/18 they are used the Team Coefficients from 2012/13 to 16/17 ??

Yes, that's correct. See UEFA Team Ranking 2017

c) bert kassies (Which i think) on his site in the section seeding EL hypothesizes than to overcome Q1,Q2,ecc... are the teams seeded?? For me it yes , I wanted to confirm

Not sure if I fully understand this question. Do you mean is it sure that those teams are seeded/unseeded? Then the answer is no. The seeding lists are only valid within the constraints that are written in the yellow boxes above the lists.

d) You know some sites with calculations of the various rankings??

A very good site may be found at kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl. What do you need more?

An alternative site is at uefa.com.

Re: Ranking uefa, seeded and other
Author: AlanK Date: 04-06-2017, 17:22	Of course Bert has already answered the questions asked by Pixel. As a user, I'll add my two cents worth-- Yes, I constantly calculate coefficients manually. Being obsessive-compulsive helps! Bert's website is constantly updated to reflect the latest figures--often when uefa.com does NOT update their own website!

Author: Pixel
Date: 04-06-2017, 17:41

Mr. kassies, what honor...

- I have in the past tried the calculation with the Italian clubs (Taking inspiration from his ''tables'').

- I understood the question c) {{Below it is assumed that the seeded teams of the 3rd qualifying round qualify for the 4th qualifying round, and unseeded teams of the 3rd qualifying round od the Champions League qualify for the 4th qualifying round. If other teams qualify some teams may shift to the seeded or unseeded pot>>
Although it is a bit farraginous...

- Never had any doubt about his famous site

Re: Ranking uefa, seeded and other
Author: Pixel Date: 04-06-2017, 23:13	Now i would have a question exclusively for bert kassies I would know the maximum number of teams of the English_Premier_League who can go to Europe?? I knew it was max 7 (4 cl + 3 el or 5 cl + 2 el)...it is true we could have 9?? Could write a scenario as an example?? The double cup (EFL + FA cup )confuses me

Re: Ranking uefa, seeded and other
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 04-06-2017, 23:40	It is 9 teams. For this to happen both the CL-winner and EL-winner have to be from England, while both of them didn't qualify for CL or EL via the national league or Cups.

Author: forgive_forget
Date: 05-06-2017, 07:28
Edited by: forgive_forget
at: 05-06-2017, 07:41

Now i would have a question exclusively for bert kassies
I would know the maximum number of teams of the English_Premier_League who can go to Europe??
I knew it was max 7 (4 cl + 3 el or 5 cl + 2 el)...it is true we could have 9??

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2016-17
IF Leicester City won UCL and Southampton won UEL respectively, as bellow:

PL champions: Chelsea
FA Cup winners: Arsenal (5th in PL)
League Cup winners: Manchester United (6th)
UEFA Champions League winners: Leicester City (12th)
UEFA Europa League winners: Southampton (8th)

Then there will be 9 English teams participating in Europe next season.

UCL 5 teams：
Group Stage: Chelsea - Tottenham Hotspur (2nd) - Manchester City (3rd) - Leicester City
Play-off round: Southampton

UEL 4 teams:
Group Stage: Liverpool (4th) - Arsenal - Manchester United
Third qualifying round: Everton (7th)

Re: Ranking uefa, seeded and other
Author: Pixel Date: 05-06-2017, 10:44	@forgive_forget Thanks, very clear thanks Forza-AZ

Author: LorenzoDK
Date: 06-06-2017, 09:52

Hello everybody, this is my very first post, and I am so excited about it. I have been using this website for many years, but only discovered the forum recently (shame on me).
In the past few months I have developed a sort of obsession towards Team Ranking and Country Ranking and their ability to predict football match results and competitions (EL and CL) outcome. I would like to summarize what are my main thoughts with this regards and I really hope to receive some fruitful comments, feedback and maybe contributions to the matter

In layman's terms we can say that the Team Ranking is an index of the performances of individual teams in European football over the last 5 seasons. And the Country Ranking does the same, but for countries as a whole.
The assumption is that the highest the Team Ranking, the stronger is a team (i.e higher % of winning a match or a competition). Nevertheless some problems arise:
a) Each team receives a contribution to its coefficient equal to 20% of the Country Ranking. This is kind of negligible for the strong teams like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern or Juventus, but it means a lot for teams like Leicester City, which basically would have a Team Ranking equal to 0 if it wans?t for the Country Ranking part.
b) Looking back to the previous seasons, we have the problem that this Country Ranking contribution has changed over the years from 50% to 30% to 20%.
c) Both the Country Ranking and the Team Coefficient are calculated over a period of 5 years. We obviously know that luck/random plays a major role in football so that even the best teams may face a disappointing season. See Chelsea or PSG this year, as an example. On the other hand consider Ajax and Lyon: average performances in 4 of the 5 last seasons, but excellent performances in the current one.
d) The bonus system is puzzling me a lot, but it is indeed necessary. Think about it: a Team Winning the EL plays 15 matches while a team winning the CL plays only 13. If we assume both teams win all their matches, we will end up in a situation where the EL winner gets 30 coefficient points, while the CL one gets 26. Moreover, it is intuitively much easier to perform better (make more points) in the EL than in the CL. The bonus system aims to rewards CL teams to compensate for that. But again, the current system was introduced in 2009-2010, while before that it was quite different

I have been thinking about a number of experiments that could hopefully help sorting out some of the issues stated above.
1) Create a database with all the matches played in the CL since 2003-2004 (first season with the current format) and EL since 2009-2010 (first season with the current format). We could also include the qualification matches to get better statistics. I can retrive the data for each season from the forum, for example here: https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/match2017.html
2) Now for each individual match, we need to associate to each of the 2 teams its Country Ranking and Team Ranking. Here is where things get a little more complicated. It takes a lot of manual work to do that using the database from this forum. For example for the current season I would need to manually retrieve data from https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/trank2016.html and from https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2016.html. Does anyone have a database that could help me speeding up things? That would be highly appreciated! I would also very much like to know if it is somehow possibile to know the Team Ranking without the Country contribution (20% from 2009 and 30% from 2003). I know it is a minor thing, but it makes the two coefficients acting as a covariate and I would prefer avoiding that

What I intend to do is to run a Multinomial logistic regression considering as variables the difference of the Team ranking and Country Ranking for the 2 teams. Even better if the Team ranking was without the coutry tranking contribution as mentioned earlier.
Example from CL finale:
Juventus: Country Ranking: 70.439; Team Ranking: 107.087
Real Madrid: Country Ranking: 105.713; Team Ranking: 176.142

Juventus-Real Madrid: Diff CR: 70.439-105.713=-35.274; Diff TR: 107.087-176.142=-69.055. True Difference (without the CR contribution) would be something smaller than 69.055 (Real Madrid has a clear advantage in this perspective)

So:
Juventus-Real Madrid: -35.274; -69.055; 2 (Match outcome)
By running the Multinomial logistic regression we can determine which of the 2 coefficients has the highest predicitivity power, and what is the best combination of the two to estimate team strenght (for example Total Team Strenght=0.5*CR+TR)
But we can also run a number of other experiments: for example checking whether the best estimate for a team strenght is the results of the previous 3 or 5 years , like the current uefa method suggests.

I know this is a very long post, but as I said It would be great if anyone could help with comments, inputs and feedbacks. Thanks!

Author: kyto
Date: 06-06-2017, 17:08

Hi forgive_forget,

Everton, being the lowest ranked team (7th), will not be able to compete in Europa League.

Champions League 2017/18:
========================
IF Leicester won the UCL 2016/17, they will be in group phase.
IF Southampton were to win the UEL 2016/17, they too will be in group phase.
Chelsea, Tottenham & Man City (the top 3 teams in EPL 2016/17) will be in group phase.
Maximum is 5 teams per country.

Europa League 2017/18:
=====================
Arsenal (by virtue of winning the FA Cup)
Man United (by virtue of winning the League Cup)
Liverpool (by finishing 4th in EPL)

So, maximum England can field is 8 teams.

Regards,

Re: Ranking uefa, seeded and other
Author: MisterVaridoianis Date: 06-06-2017, 18:04 Edited by: MisterVaridoianis at: 06-06-2017, 18:04	Kyto, you're wrong and forgive_forget was indeed right. According to article 3.09c of the 2017�18 UCL regulations, in such a scenario, Liverpool would be automatically transferred to the UEL group stage, resulting in one additional team (i.e. a fourth team) in Europa League for England.

Re: Ranking uefa, seeded and other
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 06-06-2017, 20:09	Also Southampton would not be in CL-GS, but in CL-Q4 (since CL-winner wasn't qualified for CL-GS via their league).

Author: Cloakmaster
Date: 06-06-2017, 20:44

The Maximum of english (Spanish/german) Teams is indeed 9. 7 berths are fixed. But if the CL winner does not qualify for europe vie the domestic league or domestic Cup(s), that Nation gets an extra berth.
For EL this apllies as well.

So, If say, Chelsea wins CL, and fishes Premier League Say Rank #8 or Lower, ans not winning FA oder League Cup, ManU would still start in CL-GS.

If say, ManU wins EL, and fishes Premier League Say Rank #8 or Lower, ans not winning FA oder League Cup, ManU would still start in CL-q4 as the 5th english Team in CL.

So then we would have:
CL-Winner, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rank in CL-GS
EL-Winner in CL-q4.
4th, 5th and FA Cup winner in EL-GS
League Cup winner in EL-q4.

With the old Fair Play rule still in place, you could even have one more tam in Europe, with the FP-Winner starting in EL-q1.

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