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Author: joaol
Date: 17-12-2004, 04:12

Portugal is still ahead from holland...do you think that netherlands can reach portugal this year ? if not in how many years? do you think there is another strong country to fight for the 6th place besides portugal and the netherlands?..i think that the 8th place wil change a lot and maybe there can be a year that portugal falls to 10t place(maximum) but i think they fight the next year again for the 6 uefa teams...what do u think from all this

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: Osiris Date: 17-12-2004, 08:28	No doubt Portugal will keep the 6th place this and next year. Such a huge gap of more than 6 points (for 6 teams it equals to 38 points or 19 wins)couldn't be overcome in a short period of time.

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: Ricardo Date: 17-12-2004, 09:21	Compating Portugal and Holland: in 00/01 Portugal had 0.042 points more in 01/02 Netherlands 0.793 more 02/03 Portugal had 4.584 more 03/04 Portugal had 4.834 more 04/05 Netherlands 2.333 more To get even, Netherlands has a lot of cathing up to do, which I don't think happens before the 02/03 results fall off: at the end of season 07/08!

Author: Wilberto
Date: 17-12-2004, 11:29

When you look further, the struggle
for the sixth place is not between the Netherlands
and Portugal,but between Germany and the Netherlands
as the facts are at this moment.
Must say dat if a second division club can reach
the last 32 in Uefa cup Germany's future looks better than Portugal and the Netherlands. But with 1,5 point difference at this moment, this is too much to overcome this year, with 3 clubs of Portugal still competing. Thanks to the bad year of 2003/2004 Germany will be a candidate for 7th place in the future.

Standings 2008

5 Portugal 10.250 5.333 15.583
6 Germany 4.714 9.428 14.142
7 Netherlands 5.416 7.666 13.082

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: Ricardo Date: 17-12-2004, 11:41	No way Wilberto, Germany has shown this year that last year was an exception. For 02/07 they are even 3 points behind Portugal, but also still have 2.5 season to catch up, which they surely will do(Currently they are this year already almost 2 points ahead)

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: ralfinho Date: 17-12-2004, 19:21	Fully agree, Ricardo. If I'm right then Germany is already about 4 four points ahead of Portugal in the current season. I'm quite sure that at the end of this season, Germany will catch Portugal in the 2007 ranking. If not, then next season. As we have discussed it here several times, as long as Portugal starts with 6 teams they cannot repeat their outstanding results of 01/02, 02/03 and 03/04.

Author: Wilberto
Date: 17-12-2004, 20:57

It's true that it's easier to get a higher coefficient with four teams than six teams, especially when there's a traditional top 3,
as is the case in both Portugal and the Netherlands.
But with 6 teams you have 2 CL participants, this means since the regulations are changed, 3 extra bonuspoints per team when reaching the groupfase and 6 guaranteed matches.Instead of zero bonuspoints and chance of loosing in the first round in UC. This is an big advantage to 1 CL participant , as is the case when 4 teams are participating.
The advantage for the coefficient when four teams are participating is somewhat neutralised I think by this rule.
Next year both Portugal and Netherlands maybe have a non-seeded CL particpant in QR3 of CL:Boavista and AZ. Which will mean they have a big chance to loose bonuspoints.
Germany will have 3 seeded participants 3 in CL as it looks now and this means 9 bonuspoints, say
1 point extra coefficient even at the start.
I agree, but what if Wolfsburg or Hannover 96 have
an incidental good year and second half of competition and will be 2nd or 3rd in the bundesliga and Aachen wins the cup again? What if trend of the temptation of playing in the premiership and the spanish league will also be too much for the best players in the bundesliga?

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: anita Date: 17-12-2004, 21:59	Wilberto, Boavista (44,803) are guaranteed seeding if they end up in CLQR3. In a not too unrealistic scenario, Sporting (39.803) and Dynamo Kiev (38.869) may be fighting for the last seeded spot in CLQR3. On the other hand, Alkmaar are guaranteed non-seeding in CLQR3 (21,714).

Author: Wilberto
Date: 17-12-2004, 22:24

Anita,
sharp, indeed this is an extra dimension to the
game Feyenoord-Sporting. Nevertheless seeding based on the performance of five years is not a good measure for the strength of the team, which is the purpose of this system I think, three years will be better.
Chelsea is the best example of this, but also AZ.It's in the best intrest of the Netherlands looking at the coefficient that Ajax or Feyenoord will be second in the "Eredivisie", because of this.

Author: ralfinho
Date: 17-12-2004, 22:50

Wilberto,
I did not mean that it's in general a disadvantage to start with 6 teams. I mean that it's a disadvantage for Portugal .
If I look at the results of the Portuguese teams in the last years I see only Porto, Benfica and Boavista making more than a few points (sometimes also Sporting Lisbon). Three other teams lessen the average points. I assume this will repeat in the forthcoming seasons. As it was the case for Greece in the last years (not for Holland this season, see AZ and Heerenveen).

Coming to Germany:
- You are right that if Wolfsburg or Hanover will make it to CLQ3 they maybe will not qualify for GS. But I think this is rather improbable. I'm quite sure that the 3 German teams in CL will come from Bayern / Schalke / Stuttgart / Werder, maybe Hertha or Leverkusen.
- Aachen did not win the cup in 2004. Werder won it. Aachen was finalist and qualified for UC as Werder was qualified for CL. This will not repeat in 2005 because Aachen is already out. Do you know whom they lost? Vs. the second team of Bayern Munich (3rd divisionist). That was the revenge for last year.

- Well, no German club can compete with the salaries paid by Real, Barca etc. for superstars as Zidane, Ronaldinho etc. But at least we can compete for players like Roy Makaay.

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: anita Date: 17-12-2004, 23:12	Don't forget Russia when they had six teams. Catastrophy! Wilberto, if you want a rollercoaster table on Country and Team ranking, you may choose three years. But on Team ranking just one year abscence from EC may then have more impact and give a more unfair ranking.

Author: joaol
Date: 19-12-2004, 17:17

I can say i?m happy with portugal?s coefficient this year.. last time we took 6 teams to european competition we had 3,6 points!!!!well we can see if we only took 4 teams this year we would have almost 8 points..instead we have 5,3...but it?s ok...perfect shhould be having 7,5 points this year( 7.5x5(seasons)=37,5) perhaps the necessary to maintain 6th place forever). But 7,5-5.3=2.2(=2.2= 7 victories= 14 points in the current year)...it is possible if sporting porto and benfica have great europena results in the the following european matches)
Go Portugal!good luck...for us

Author: Wilberto
Date: 19-12-2004, 18:21

Anita, Rollercoasttable, nice term.
But my point is the last performance is in general the best indicator for the future. Now there are some clubs like Chelsea, which is considered one of the strongest club at this moment which because of this system are even in pot 3 at the seeding procedure for CL. Also Boavista has not performed the last two years, but will be seeded next year when qualifying voor QR3CL and the beautiful team of Rosenborg possibly not. But there are many more examples like Galatsary, or Leeds (will not qualify although)...
A system like the seedingprocedure in World Cup for lands is also a possibilty for a better en more fairer ranking. At this seeding procedure they take 3* performance of WC 4 years back, 2* performance of 8 years back and 1* performance of 12 years back.
For Teamranking Uefa counting the last performance for 100%, the performance 1 year back etc for 80% etc (5 years in total, OK) will be a better statistical measure for measuring the strength of a team.
And rollercoasting is fun....

Author: Wilberto
Date: 19-12-2004, 18:45

Ralphino,
Concerning the teams of Portugal, they were a bit unlucky this year in UCR1, Maritimo out after penalties against te strong Rangers, Sevilla was possible the worst draw possible for Nacional. If they had proceed
they definitely had get some points in groupfase.
Concerning the german teams, there's indeed a revival en all the teams looks very strong, but I don't think because of the attraction of the G3 leagues for the best players they will be entering this top 3 in the future. The Dutch teams are indeed "suffering" from this attraction now for years. But the fourth place is possible. Bayern Munchen is outsider for winning the CL.

Author: anita
Date: 19-12-2004, 19:04

Wilberto, I like the idea. With 100% of coeff for this year, 80% for last year, and then 60, 40 and 20 % for former year, the country ranking will be like this (Norwegian country names):

1 Spania 39,452
2 England 33,146
3 Italia 32,933
4 Frankrike 29,014
5 Tyskland 26,297
6 Portugal 24,958
7 Nederland 20,981
8 Skottland 18,850
9 Belgia 18,700
10 Hellas 18,648
11 Tyrkia 17,175
12 Tsjekkia 15,895
13 Ukraina 15,800
14 Russland 14,575
15 Israel 12,625
16 �sterrike 12,375
17 Norge 12,245
18 Polen 12,150
19 Serbia M'negro 11,916
20 Ungarn 11,065
21 Bulgaria 10,741
22 Sveits 10,725
23 Romania 10,483
24 Kroatia 10,175
25 Danmark 9,360
26 Sverige 8,043
27 Slovenia 6,599
28 Slovakia 5,866
29 Kypros 5,032
30 Bosnia 5,032
31 Latvia 4,965
32 Georgia 4,365
33 Finland 4,049
34 Moldavia 4,000
35 Litauen 3,966
36 Island 3,499
37 Liechtenstein 2,900
38 Makedonia 2,765
39 Irland 2,299
40 Belarus 2,232
41 Albania 1,932
42 Armenia 1,866
43 Malta 1,632
44 Estland 1,532
45 N.Irland 1,466
46 Luxemburg 0,966
47 Wales 0,899
48 Azerbaidsjan 0,700
49 F�r�yene 0,633
50 Kazakhstan 0,433
51 San Marino 0,000
52 Andorra 0,000

Author: anita
Date: 19-12-2004, 19:27

With same procedure for teams, it will be like this for 83 first teams. First column is place with present system:

1 1 Real Madrid 68,818
2 2 Valencia 65,418
3 3 Barcelona 62,218
5 4 AC Milan 61,267
4 5 Manchester United 59,938
7 6 Inter 57,867
9 7 FC Porto 56,235
12 8 Juventus 54,067
6 9 Liverpool 53,138
11 10 Arsenal 52,138
8 11 Deportivo La Coru�a 50,618
20 12 Newcastle 45,938
13 13 Olympique Lyon 45,174
10 14 Bayern M�nchen 43,877
22 15 Chelsea 42,738
14 16 PSV Eindhoven 42,724
19 17 Celtic 40,419
15 18 Roma 38,267
16 19 Panathinaikos 38,154
29 20 Monaco 37,974
17 21 Lazio Roma 37,467
24 22 Stuttgart 36,077
33 23 Villarreal 35,818
18 24 Bayer Leverkusen 35,477
21 25 Feyenoord 33,124
23 26 AC Parma 33,067
27 27 Bordeaux 31,174
42 28 Auxerre 31,174
32 29 Club Brugge 30,369
25 30 Borussia Dortmund 30,077
35 31 Ajax 29,524
41 32 Schalke '04 28,477
30 33 Paris Saint-Germain 28,174
26 34 Celta de Vigo 28,018
61 35 Sochaux 26,774
51 36 Dinamo Kiev 26,613
60 37 Benfica 26,435
57 38 Olympique Marseille 25,574
47 39 Werder Bremen 25,477
43 40 Olympiakos Pireus 25,354
40 41 Sparta Praha 25,043
46 42 Sporting Lisboa 25,035
36 43 Anderlecht 24,769
53 44 Besiktas 24,467
48 45 Zaragoza 24,418
37 46 AEK Athen 24,354
56 47 Lille 23,374
49 48 Real Mallorca 23,018
28 49 Leeds 22,938
39 50 Boavista 22,635
50 51 M�laga 22,618
31 52 Galatasaray 22,267
55 53 Rosenborg 22,240
44 54 Glasgow Rangers 22,019
65 55 Sevilla 22,018
38 56 Hertha BSC 21,877
64 57 Basel 21,537
68 58 Athletic Bilbao 21,018
34 59 CD Alav�s 20,218
54 60 Lokomotiv Moskva 20,209
75 61 Middlesbrough 19,938
69 62 Real Sociedad 19,418
63 63 Wisla Krak�w 19,409
62 64 Real Betis 19,018
92 65 Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 18,413
73 66 Lens 18,174
80 67 Partizan Beograd 18,132
59 68 Slavia Praha 17,844
58 69 PAOK Thessaloniki 17,754
86 70 Fenerbah�e 17,467
78 71 Perugia 17,267
67 72 Ipswich 17,138
98 73 Alkmaar 16,924
45 74 Nantes 16,774
77 75 Dinamo Zagreb 16,757
88 76 Aachen 16,677
87 77 Genclerbirligi 16,667
52 78 Rayo Vallecano 16,018
85 79 Heerenveen 15,924
83 80 Manchester City 15,738
76 81 Fulham 15,738
72 82 Udinese 15,667
94 83 Hearts 15,619

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: anita Date: 19-12-2004, 19:28	Yeah, I love the idea, Wiberto. Placing Rangers behind Rosenborg...

Author: ralfinho
Date: 20-12-2004, 00:46

I like the idea, too. Although it would hit Bayern.

And, Wilberto, why should Germany not reach the top 3 in some years? Had been the case in times when Italian and Spanish top clubs could pay much more than German ones.

Currently, the only problem is the coeff of 03/04 that will hit Germany four more years.
However, if you want to fight for something you have to start at a time. Let's see if Germany can save its current position among the top 3.

Author: Wilberto
Date: 20-12-2004, 19:18

Anita,
Nice work. It looks like this is a little bit better indicator to measure the real strength of a team, with full account of all last 5years-performances. Maybe we can send the proposal to the UEFA seeding commitee (on behalf of the site?) and ask for a reply, do you know the adress? Are you sure you like this self-made ranking concerning Rosenborg, looking at the ranking of Sochiaux, Marseille and Benfica....?

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: anita Date: 20-12-2004, 19:36	Indeed, Wilberto. I just re-calculated my Excel-sheets and copied it down here, but after taking a closer look on the results/outcome of your idea, I find it (much) more relevant and fair. If UEFA adopt it (fat chance!) as a X-mas gift, Intertoto Cup may get a bigger impact. Just look at Galatasaray falling from grace because they didn't participate in any European cup this season.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 20-12-2004, 23:18

oh ralfingo it is bad for Portugal to have 6 teams? Who are you to say that? I can assure you there?s no better thing than having 6 teams. What the hell do you know about portuguese football anyway? You don?t even know the name of the club Sporting CP! Watch the games... only results may play tricks on you.
This season Portugal have a lot of points to win, calm down don?t be so sure. Hitler also thought to rule but well he was doing drugs (not an excuse but a reason for maniacs). Also Bayern player thought they had that cup in Wien (feel like home) but gone with silver medals, well again in another final more recently. So why not trying to be less sure?
Anyway Portugal 6 teams (unlucky some of them, right) made already more points than last year german 6 teams! 4.714 for 5 years!!!!!
Don?t forget portuguese clubs except those that usualy play in Europe (and they are only 4 ehen they are NOT 6!!) are usaully unseeded. Things may change with one or two more years having 6 teams. Is there some of you that can?t imagine Mar�timo or whatever doing the same thins as Alemannia if seeded in UCR1? So with this system it takes some time to a countrry or a club to go up. Just calm down!
That system giving progressive importance to more recent seasons always was my favourite. Beneficts the good teams in recent times instead those that were good 4 or 5 years ago.

Author: anita
Date: 20-12-2004, 23:51

porto, I think ralfinho have the same opinion as me. It is great to have six teams in EC, and well done, Portugal (and mostly Porto) for achieving this.

But what concerns me (us?) is that maybe Portugal is overstretching with six teams? We watched Russia some years ago going down the drain, and Holland has not either been too comfortable with six teams. That is at least my angle for doubting that Portugal will manage to keep their UEFA-ranking for so many years. Absolutely no offense to Portuguese fotball.

I don't know whats going on in Portuguese league just now, but it is closer (and more teams) in the top than usual. Is it Porto that have slowed down, or do you have the impression that the other teams have generally improved?

PS: I have called the club Sporting Lisboa since early sixties, but thanks for information.

Author: Todor
Date: 21-12-2004, 10:55

Porto , I can't understand why are you so upset about the other users that don't share your opinions.
Of course it's better to have as many teams as possible , because this is the ultimate goal of the coefficient system. But having more teams inctreases the chance of having a really bad year , like Germany 03/04 , which combined with another bad one may slip the country down the order for 4-5 years.
I saw nothing so offending about Portuguese football in the previous posts. I personally don't believe Portugal teams are capable to maintain top level for 5 years , but they may prove me wrong.

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: anita Date: 21-12-2004, 13:29	Todor, Porto-1978 is a nice guy with lots of football knowledge, but he is a genuine chauvinist and always upset on behalf of his team(s). That's his nature. His only problem on this forum (as I see it) is that he have some trouble using the Enter key to make paragraphs. Sometimes I get out of breath reading his mail. Click twice (more often), porto! Cheers!

Author: ralfinho
Date: 22-12-2004, 02:38

porto,
oops, it seems you feel offended. Sorry for that, but, to be honest, I really cannot see any remarks in my previous posts that offended portuguese football.

As anita and Todor said, of course it's nice to have 6 teams in the EC's. But my point was indeed that in my view 6 teams will lessen the portuguese average coeff. In comparison to the years in which Portugal made outstanding results (01/02 to 03/04, always 4 teams). Same as with Russia in former years (as anita mentioned) and Greece in the last years. And that's the reason why I'm quite sure that Germany will catch Portugal soon in the ranking of the forthcoming years. No more, no less.

It's up to you to see things in an other way. I mean predictions, nothing else. In this case, I suggest that we talk each other again in 1 or 2 years.

And, some minor remarks:
You wrote "What the hell do you know about portuguese football anyway?"
I only referred to the results as shown on Bert's page. No matter what I look on Eurosport or whereever.

You wrote "You don?t even know the name of the club Sporting CP!"
Wrong. I used the name "Sporting Lisbon" as it is known all over Europe. Same as I use "Bayern Munich" as it is known in Europe and not "FC Bayern Munich" (full name) or "FC Bayern" (as supporters say).

You wrote "calm down"
No need to tell me. I'm always calmed. Except when I'm in the fancurve of the Olympiastadion.

You wrote "Also Bayern player thought they had that cup in Wien (feel like home) but gone with silver medals"
Wrong again. I can definitely assure you that no Bayern player underestimated Porto in 1987.

You wrote "Hitler also thought to rule but well he was doing drugs (not an excuse but a reason for maniacs)."
Sorry, Porto, but I really do not want to comment this.

Cheerio. Have a nice christmas.

Author: anita
Date: 22-12-2004, 04:08

ralfinho, talking about BayernM and thinking they had it all going for them; in Barcelona in -99 the whole world thought Bayern had it all wrapped up for them. They controled the match, and I rarely use the term 'deserved', but OK.

My favorite team won, Solskjaer scoring the winning goal on injury time, achieving the utmost glory a Norwegian player can ever reach, and just the ultimate wet dream for any kid, but for the first time in a long football life I felt sorry for a German team.

Author: conrad
Date: 22-12-2004, 09:59

Holland have since 97/98 6 teams. I think that they are the best subtop country.
I don't think that Portugal or Greece are strong enough to hold 6 teams for more then 5 years.
The top in this countries are to small

Holland can't pass Portugal fot the upcoming three years, because of the points in the seasons when Porto won CL and UC.
The match between Sporting and Feyenoord is very important for both countries.

Author: Wilberto
Date: 22-12-2004, 18:49

There is no reason to believe that Holland will compete with Portugal for the next years, even after the Porto-results will be not in the coefficients any more.
One reason is that the Portugese competition is very attractive for strong Brasilian players.
Sporting CP will take the place of Porto in a few years, and will be a candidate for finals (maybe even this year) Also they are financially very healthy and they have a hypermodern new stadium. There are at least 4 teams of very good European quality at the moment and in the near future. This is not the case in Holland, there are only two: Ajax and PSV.
Incidental their are some results of (this year)AZ-Alkmaar and Feyenoord. There's now way Feyenoord will repeat the succes of winning the cup in the near future.
Sporting CP will easily win two times of Feyenoord, because of their defenceproblems.

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: Joost Date: 22-12-2004, 19:49	Well Feijenoord defense is dramatic indeed. But we'll see. 4 good European teams in Portugal and 2 in Holland? Hmm, only Porto proved being good the last few years. Benfica never came far and Sporting also. Boavista had some results few years ago. Portugal are just a few years back so I think you're to self-confident. Other countries as Turkey etc will be back sometime also.

Re: Portugal vs Holland ( coefficients)
Author: ralfinho Date: 23-12-2004, 02:39	anita wrote "but for the first time in a long football life I felt sorry for a German team." Thanks, anita, I appreciate that. Have been in Barcelona. That's my last post this year. Holiday's waiting. I wish all of you a merry christmas and a happy new year. CU.

Author: anita
Date: 23-12-2004, 02:42

Just for the fun of it, if Netherland have had the same amount of teams as Portugal last five years, Netherland would have 41,667 points (counting three best in league + cup winner/loser and their points in EC). Portugal have 41,833. This is of course not absolutely relevant, since six teams guarantee two teams + one in CLQ3, and its normally harder to pick up points in CL than in UC. Well....anyway.

When it comes to dominating the point-picking for their country, counting the five last seasons (including present season):

Portugal have picked up 178 points. Portugal have had four teams every year except this season with six teams.

Points taken by teams participated and the percentage of all the points:

Porto 81 - 45,51%
Boavista 35 - 19,66%
Sporting 26,5 - 14,89%
Benfica 22 - 12,36%
Maritimo 6 - 3,37%
Leixoes 3,5 - 1,97%
Leiria 3 - 1,69%
Braga 1 - 0,56%
Funchal 0 - 0%

Netherland have taken 213 points. They have had six teams every year:

PSV - 62 - 29,11%
Feyenoord - 51,5 - 24,18%
Ajax - 39,5 - 18,54%
Heerenveen - 13 - 6,10%
Utrecht - 11 - 5,16%
Roda, Vitesse and Alkmaar, all 10 points (4,69%), and Twente 6 points (2,82%). NAC Breda and Nijmegen without points.

In season 99-00 Porto had 18 of 35 points (51,4%), and in 97/98 they had 14/37 (37,8%). Porto is (has been?) far more 'valuable' for their country than e.g Dynamo Kiev or Rosenborg for theirs.

Author: joaol
Date: 10-01-2005, 18:56

I think everybody as some difficulties in seeing the portuguese side of view of our football.If you look at Bert?s graph you will see that ranking below 10th place is almost considerated catastrofic for us.we have only been below the 10th line for about 6 years(late sixties-early seventies and late seventies-early eighties) in our entire football history.WHen we went 10th few years ago and the Champion hadn?t direct presence in the champions league every newspaper was talking of that.
I understand that you don?t know our history but my all-time ranking for countries is something like this:

1-England
2-Italy
3-Spain
4-Germany
5-Netherlands and Portugal
7-(I?m afraid of choosing a country here but France isn?t for sure ...they only have an european champions cup that it was even taken for them, they have great teams and great league, but they don?t have titles)
Portugal was severily atacked by the bosman rule and great players have left our country cause we haven?t economic power. Portuguese love football and it is only one of the few good things we have...so we are restructuring our football to return to our real potential. I can assure that our palce is beetween 5th and 8th(this is 6 teams),and never below that...it would be very dissapoint for us.
Go Sporting!!We are leaders now...
Go Portugal!I?m with Benfica and Porto in European competitions but Internally i really hate you...