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Author: anita
Date: 12-07-2004, 15:24

With present UEFA-rules, Portugal will have six teams in EC for at least three more years, probably 4-5. Calculated some percentages on portuguese teams last five years. Portugal have taken 181 points. In percentage (not using third decimal. Makes me sick):

Porto - 49.17%
Boavista - 23.20
Sporting - 11.32
Benfica - 8.84
Maritimo - 2.21
Leixoes - 1.93
Leiria - 1.66
V.Setubal - 1.10
Beira Mar - 0.51

As showed, Porto taking half the points for Portugal in EC. Benfica good last season, but if Porto "falls" out or underachieve couple of years, Portugal may end up like Russia. Portugal can still stay up there for four -five more years with their three later good EC-seasons, but no way they can gain around 10 points every year on the UEFA-ranking with six teams. Probably half of it.

Other interesting team percentages of country points last five years:

Dinamo Kiev - 51.41
Galatasaray - 48.18
Celtic - 46.69
Rosenborg - 46.07
Red Star - 44.63
Anderlecht - 42.45
Sparta Praha - 33.78

Rangers have 33.07 giving Old Firm 80% of Scottish points. And Rangers doing lousy couple of last years. Slavia (30.10) gives Slavia and Sparta 63.88%. Olympiakos (15.63) and Panathinaikos (31.00) give them 46.63. Feyenoord and PSV 27.63% each. Together with Ajax 19.31) give those three 74.57. Remember that Greece (except 01-02) and Holland have had six teams all the way. Club Brügge 35.91 gives them with Anderlecht 78.36 of Belgium points.

I am not out to prove anything, just confirming that other countries than Portugal, Ukraine and Norway have "lonely" teams with a high percentage of nation points, and looking at which countries may aspire to the three six-team-places behind G5-countries.

anita

Re: Portugal with six teams for many years?
Author: duncshine Date: 12-07-2004, 15:43	Anita, Good set of figures. How do Spain, Italy, England etc (ie the 'giants') look? I'd do the maths myself, but you're soooo good at it.... Dunc

Re: Portugal with six teams for many years?
Author: anita Date: 12-07-2004, 15:55	Hi dunc Real Madrid - 14.28 ManU - 22.05 Bayern M - 25.45 Milan - 18.65 Lyon - 17.38 Just took the highest ranked teams from each country, then expanded it for some nations. Some trouble with my PC last week unable to approach Excel, so just did these on hand calculator bored in front of telly.

Author: duncshine
Date: 12-07-2004, 16:06

Illustrates the point nicely, doesn't it?

As strong as we Real Madrid are, they only pick up one in seven of Spain's points. meaning that if Real Madrid were to have even a total disaster, Spain's coefficient would hold up pretty well.

Of course, Germany's disaster last year shows that no nation is completely bomb-proof, but places like Portugal and the Ukraine are on a perpetual knife edge.

Dunc

Author: anita
Date: 12-07-2004, 16:45

Indeed. Actually all G5-countries the same. My aim was to look at the 6-12 teams, and we all think that Scotland is just Old Firm. But look at opponents. Also got a lot of points through just two teams.

Scotland two teams - 79.71%
Belgium two teams - 78.36
Czech Republic two teams - 63.88

Will be very interesting to see what Banik Ostrava can achieve. Must be a good team and on the not-wanted-list for seeded CLQ3-teams.

Re: Portugal with six teams for many years?
Author: Kronsky Date: 12-07-2004, 16:54	Polish teams last 5 years then. Total amount of points: 57 (without country coff) Wisla Krakow 24p 42,11% Legia Warszawa 13p 22,81% Amica Wronki 9p 15,79% Groclin 5p 8,77% Widzew Lodz 3p 5,26% Polonia Wars. 2p 3,51% Lech Poznan 1p 1,75% Teams entering EC this season: Wisla, Legia, Amica (together 80,71% of all points past 5 years) and Lech.

Re: Portugal with six teams for many years?
Author: SHEV Date: 12-07-2004, 21:09	Ukraine is waiting for Shalhtar points for some years. Easy to predict that they'll come soon. I hope very soon because one day Dynamos magnificent achievement of seven time in a row qualifying for CL could come to an end.

Author: akis71
Date: 12-07-2004, 22:35

Anita is right. Portugal will have 6 teams for many years. For that season and next one that is for sure. Considering that the gap from 9th place is more than 9000 points it is pretty sure that even if Portugal earn 0 points of that year will be at top 8 teams surely so will have 6 teams for third year in row. Although I think that Portuguese clubs will be strong enough that season (not just Porto) and Portugal will keep 6th place easily and it seems easier to me to see Portugal 5th at the end of season than being 7th

Author: porto-1978
Date: 13-07-2004, 05:36

After a year with more than 10 points in 2003, the subject of wether Portugal will hold their place or not started in this forum. At the begining of last season i predicted a quofecient of about 9 points for Portugal. It was again more than 10. I admit to make a predition for next season, but this time is more dificult to predict (6 clubs instead of 4). I think 7 points are perfectly reachable, it?s my worst case scenario so i wouldn?t be surprised with more. But let?s see step by step...

Author: sr_sofisticacao
Date: 13-07-2004, 10:50

Don't forget one other thing. This year it won't happen, but from next year on, Portugal will have 2 teams directly in the CL and one in the 3rd qualifying round. And now, qualification to the CL gives automatically 3 points to each team! So... If Portugal holds up this year and does an average year, next year with a bit of luck (if our 3rd team is seeded) we can practically start the season with 1,5 (3 CL teams x 3 points / 6 teams), which is an advantage compared to the direct contesters (Greece, Netherlands, Turkey, Czech, etc...). So this change in the points scheme may have given Portugal a small advantage for the near future. Or am I completely wrong?

Author: duncshine
Date: 13-07-2004, 10:56

I agree with Shev and Porto,

I think the numerous years with six teams will have a positive effect.

One example, if quality players (Portuguese or foreign) know that European football will go to the top six teams in Portugal for a few years to come, then they are more likely to stay with or join teams like Marítimo, Nacional, Braga as well as Porto, Benfica, Sporting etc.

This will only help to improve Portugal's 'lesser' teams, with the effect that they will pick up more points to help the big guys.

Six clubs in Europe is a curse for one or two seasons, but if you can survive for a while, then the lesser teams start to pull their weight too.

I think the same is true of Scotland. If Celtic and Rangers have a few good seasons and get Scotland to six teams a year, then their performance will continue to be crucial while the other teams get up to Euro-speed.

Of course I'm not saying Rio Ave will necessarily become as big as Porto/Benfica etc. But look at Deportivo in Spain, or think back to Aberdeen and Dundee United in the 1980's...

Cheers

Dunc

Author: krdeluxe
Date: 13-07-2004, 12:21

In Holland we still profit from the fact that we have had 6 teams in Europe for more than 5 years. Outside the top-3 (Ajax, PSV, Feyenoord) we have 5 clubs with 6 or more individual points (Heerenveen & Twente 6, Utrecht 9 and Roda JC & Vitesse 10 points for next season). If these clubs qualify next year, there is a good chance they will be seeded in the draw for the 1st round of the UEFA Cup.

I don't understand people on this forum who say the best position for their country is 9th place, because than they probably get a better country coefficient. The best for me is that many clubs from Holland have succes in Europe. If we begin with 6 teams, this chance is bigger than if we start with 4 teams. But I rather have Heerenveen or Twente in Europe than NEC or NAC Breda, because draws are great when your team is seeded. But I'm still confident AZ will reach the group fase allthough they are not seeded in the first round. Hearts would be a great opponent, because I'm always a bit negative about Scottish football, except for Celtic (maybe they are not so bad as I think) and because Scotland is a opponent for 8th place.

Author: anita
Date: 13-07-2004, 14:11

Like sr_sofisticacao writes, season 05/06 and very likely 06/07 Portugal will have the advantage of two teams directly qualified and one in CLQ3. This gives extra bonus points, and of course six teams is a boost for the Por PL.

And looking at their opponents for the 6th place, they don't seem too frightening. Greece and Holland feeling the "burden" of six teams later years, and Scotland and Belgium just too few top class teams. Last five years Celtic and Rangers have never achieved in same season (a must if Scotland's gonna improve on ranking).

I think Turkey and Czech Republic will be interesting this season. Turkey showing up some new teams last season (though this season without Gala), and Banik Ostrava breaking the Praha dominance in Cze PL.

To kronsky, I counted all the points (with bonus) when I put up my percentages, giving Poland 87 points and Wisla Krakow 35.63%.

Looking at rankings from 6-12 and 13-23, I try to find some similarities or equations. I think it's important to have one or two bulldozer teams that can "show the way". But not the gap as in Scotland. Though two teams in Belgium and three teams in Holland taking most of the points in EC, their top positions in the domestic league are not given. Not even in Greece Olympiakos or Pana can subscribe on the two top places. And Turkey is an interesting country with 5-6-7 teams fighting for championship. But, as mentioned, may be a weakness.

And looking at the 23- Sweden is an eclatant example that their PL is changing so much every year that they don't have a top team to relate to (look up to). New teams in EC almost every year. And giving lousy seeding.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 13-07-2004, 14:38

The 3 bonuspoints for CL-participation does help Portugal ofcourse, but we discussed before that games in UC are 'easier' than in CL, so easier to gather points with. especially for a 3rd team of a country . If it is a pretty good team, it might be better off being seocnd in the UC-group than 3rd or even 4th in the CL-group.
krdeluxe, did you forget how many points the 5th and 6th team of Holland gathered last year? NEC and NAC both lost both their games!! 0 points. Only bringing the coefficient down. No, with teams like that 4 teams will be enough for Holland.

Author: anita
Date: 13-07-2004, 14:54

Yes, Ricardo, as mentioned several times, counting points (and better team and country ranking)I think lower-seeded teams (in CL)still will be better off going into UC-round 1 (seeded) and then to UC-Group Stage regardless of the three bonus points. Last year Rosenborg failed to qualify for CL, though getting nine points in UEFA-cup on six matches. Taking away two bonus points, I hardly think Rosenborg had been able to pick up seven points in CL Group Stage.

This year Rosenborg (if eliminated in CLQ3) will (if UC Group Stage) get six matches with good chance of eight against far weaker teams than in CL Group Stage. So theres still a "discrepancy"(unfairness?) in UEFA's system.

It's kind of if you want points, join the UEFA-cup. If you want money, go for CL. For mid-lower seeded teams, it's hard to get both.

Author: akis71
Date: 13-07-2004, 22:25

The third team qualifying to CL is good just for the team (financially)but I dont think it help at all the country or team points. For example that year Greece has 3 teams in CL and PAOK will probably qualify to CL groups. PAOK will earn the 3 points but the most possible is to loose all away game and lose from top seeded team at home so the best that can do is win the rest to teams which is still too hard. That mean PAOK will earn 7 points. If PAOK was in UEFA round A would probably have won both games and qualifierd to group phase where would have probably won both games at home and possible get points at away games. So the minimum I can count is 8 points when the best could get at CL is 7 points. Also being at UEFA cup groups it is pretty sure that will qualify to next round when it is hard to earn even the 3rd place at CL groups to continue to UC.

Re: Portugal with six teams for many years?
Author: SHEV Date: 14-07-2004, 21:53	akis > and PAOK will probably qualify to CL groups. Seriously doubt it. Usually some seeded teams fail. PAOK is just one of the main favourites to fail =) Even if they get decent draw.

Re: Portugal with six teams for many years?
Author: Malick Date: 15-07-2004, 08:04	PAOK is clear favourite only against Djurgardens and Ferencvaros, they need lucky draw to be calm that they will get to CL group phase without problems on the way.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 15-07-2004, 18:09

I agree PAOK is one of the seeded teams with less chances to qualify, but i don?t think it is really as Malick says. For me, PAOK is clear favourite only if draws with a not seeded team from Q2. Still, PAOK is quite favourite against 7 of 16 possibilities: Djugardens, Ferencvaros, FC Kobenhavn, Maccabi Tel-Aviv, Maccabi Haifa, Dinamo Bucaresti and CSKA Moscva. I see the follow teams as having more or less the same chances of qualifying as PAOK (if PAOK meet them in Q3):Banik Ostrava, Trabzonspor, Basel, Shakhtar Donetsk and Grazer. So, there?s 3 teams i see as having a bit more chances to qualify if they play with PAOK: Benfica, Wisla and Red Star. That?s quite subjective, just personal opinion, but for me those 3 teams are the more likely to "stole" the PAOK?s place in CL Group Stage. All together i see PAOK as having at least half of chances to qualify.

Author: anita
Date: 16-07-2004, 03:40

I've lived in Norway, experienced Rosenborg as the obvious wanted team to meet as seeded or unseeded. They have always gone through hence last year. PAOK Saloniki is a heck of a better team than most of the unseeded CLQ3-teams. Actually, none of the unseeded teams in CLQ3 may advance to CL. PAOK is better than all the unseeded, but I see the point. Maybe the best team to meet for the unseeded, but not changing the favorite brand.

Re: Portugal with six teams for many years?
Author: akis71 Date: 16-07-2004, 04:07	I live in Thessaloniki but I am not fan of PAOK. Personally I believe PAOK is much better than 6 of the possible opponents, has similar changes or maybe a bit more that 50% against 6 teams and just hoped to avoid 3-4 which seem to be better. But in any case it is just 2 games where a simple mistake may be too important about the qualification.