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Author: anita
Date: 19-04-2004, 22:52

Used 10 hours last nite to prove that all the norwegians teams (Stabæk, Odd, Glimt) will be seeded in next years seasons UCQ2, while both the swedish teams (Elfsborg and Hammarby) will guaranteed be unseeded.

And that the swedish try for CL (Djurgården)probably will be unseeded in CLQ2 if two of three, Bulgaria or Israel or Denmark are doing their job.

So Sweden may be in for a total catastrophy this year as well.

If someone wants proof that all the norwegian teams are seeded in QR2, just ask. Thats how you learn.

But I must admit, the worst case scenario is Glimt and Odd at 32nd seeded place. Butte donte worrye. 32 teams are seeded.

1st round getting worse, Another story.

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: erty Date: 20-04-2004, 07:12	And how is the stand for the 1st round for our teams in Norway?

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: kerrbhoy Date: 20-04-2004, 07:18	"If someone wants proof that all the norwegian teams are seeded in QR2, just ask. " OK let's see you prove this one. :-)

Author: anita
Date: 20-04-2004, 07:26

Hi erty

You are norwegian, I presume. Depends on the cup-winners. Stabæk has maximum 25 teams ahead of them in the QR2, and probably just around 20 when the domestic cups are over. Lots of probabilities there. Odd and Glimt have 31 ahead. Stabæk may have a chance, but then all the cards have to fall their way. Rosenborg will of course be seeded if they fail to qualify for CL.

But a lot of the nations around us on the ranking may have trouble as well in the seeding.

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: anita Date: 20-04-2004, 07:29	Hi kerrbhoy If you have an e-mail-adress, I can send it to you. I dont have a website. And welcome to Oslo, if you want.

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 20-04-2004, 07:30	Anita, just like Paul, I want to have a look at your "work" confirmation erty is from Norway Regards

Author: anita
Date: 20-04-2004, 07:48

Well, 36 teams attend QR2 + the winners from QR1. The norwegian teams are already ahead of Beveren (just Stabæk), Wil, Elfsborg, Hammarby and Rubin Kazan. Zeleznik from Serbia is almost guaranteed a second place.

Among the teams from QR1, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary have teams ranked before Norwegian teams. But Hungary can get maximum 2 teams, Romania one, and the chance for Inter Bratislava to qualify is next to nothing. Anyway, that means 29 teams ahead of Stabæk and 31 ahead of the other norwegian teams (worst case scenario). So already seeded.

In addition to this, a lot of the cup-winners in the different countries will attend CL, so there are a lot of teams from different countries that will "place" behind the norwegian teams.

I really hope I am right on this, because I spent a lot of "quality time" calculating it. Stupid me started out calculating the swedish teams, but they are both (Elfsborg and Hammarby)unmerited in EC the last 5 years, so they are definitively unseeded.

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: anita Date: 20-04-2004, 07:53	And in Serbia Red Star and Partizan will meet in one of the semifinals, and then will leave Buducnost or Obilic with a cup spot since Red Star and Partizan will take the two first places in the league and thereby qualify for CL and UEFA-cup

Author: vakho
Date: 20-04-2004, 09:12

Anita, leaving all the calculations -
isn't the 24th place in team ranking and 3 teams in Europe already a disaster for Sweden. Or this years overall 1.5 points?
Or all big players playing outside Sweden ?

Have seen yesterday yet another disappointing Djurgården's game (1:1).
Last year they made quite a good 2 ties with Partizan
and lost because of disappointing mistake.
This year they are weaker! Probably couple of points in Total.
Situation is changing within a single year in Sweden , team that are good in 03 aren't in 04.
Elfsborg or Hammarby are BAD ! this year. In two first
rounds Hammabby scored 0.
Elfsborg is weekest team in this year Allsvenskan.
(1:5 home game with Malmö yeasterday).
Maybe 2 points both , so totally around 1 point for Sweden in 04-05.

Author: duncshine
Date: 20-04-2004, 09:46

Hi Anita,

My hypothesis has Norway seeded and Sweden not in Q2 too. Though I think like Bert sometimes says "not quite guaranteed but very likely".

Just one point on Serbia. As I understand it, if the cup winner qualifies for the UEFA Cup, then the runner-up does not qualify, but an extra league place is created. This would alow Sartid in on 7.654 points. Still below the Norwegian teams, but I thought it worth clarifying/checking...

Cheers

Duncan

Author: Munja
Date: 20-04-2004, 11:25

This is what I calculated
I will use Serbian names for clubs

UEFA cup q2:

fp1
fp2
fp3
Sparta cze 55.773
Liberec cze 33.915
Sturm aut 30.971
Hapoel TA isr 26.012
Dinamo Z cro 25.734
Genclerbirligi tur 23.656
Levski bul 21.599
Servet swi 20.384
Legija pol 20.177
GAK aut 19.971
Partizan scg 18.654
Steaua rom 17.880
Amika pol 16.177
Debrecin hun 16.045
FK Kopenhagen den 15.758
CSKA Sofija bul 15.599
Dnjipro ukr 14.301
Rapid aut 12.971
Liteks bul 12.599
Standard bel 12.529
Groclin pol 12.177
Stabek nor 11.227
Danfermlajn sco 10.601
Zenit rus 9.572
Beveren bel 9.529
Metalurg ukr 9.301
OD Grenland nor 9.227
Bodo Glimt nor 8.227
Rapid Bukurest rom 7.880

Obilic scg 7.654
Vil swi 7.384
Slovan Bratislava svk 7.234
Maribor slo 7.024
Olimpija slo 7.024
Hapoel BS isr 7.012
Esbjerg den 6.758
Rijeka cro 6.734
Zeleznik scg 6.654
Rubin rus 6.572
FK Moskva rus 6.572
Ruzomberok svk 6.234
Elfsborg swe 5.516
Hamarbi swe 5.516
Kispest hun 5.045
Zimbru mol 4.245
and so on...

so, we came to same conclusions.
And all clubs can move one or two places up (because of TH place and fp place) and not all the clubs are sure to participate

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: larare Date: 20-04-2004, 12:06	Anita, Information concerning Djurgården and their seeding in CL Q2 can be found at http://difmotcl.stureplan.nu/

Author: Eurycantha
Date: 20-04-2004, 12:11

Munja,

Please, correct me if I am wrong

Concerning Dunfermline (Serb:Danfermlajn) Sco 10,601

Tonight: replay semifinal Dunfermline - Inverness CT
Lets say Dunfermline win, Geordiepar would be happy!)
22/05 final Celtic - Dunfermline
Lets say Dunfermline become Scottish cupwinner
(Geordiepar would be double happy)
Dunfermline will play UC in R1 with 10,601
and Hearts will play UC in QR2 with 17,601

In your list you suppose Dunfermline as loser in the
cupfinal and therefor change with Hearts?

Regards

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 20-04-2004, 12:48	Munja, It is not so important but Sparta Praha with 55,773 and Slovan Liberec with 33,915 is not correct the figures of teams of the same country behind the comma must always be the same: in my opinion Sparta has 54,915 (btw Slavia Praha has 49,915) Regards

Author: duncshine
Date: 20-04-2004, 12:55

Hi Munja

Great work. I had made a few different assumptions (Sparta Prague, not Slovan Liberec, to win cup) but here's my UEFA Q2

SEEDED
Sparta Prague 54.915
Slavia Prague 49.915
Besiktas 32.656
Hapoel Tel Aviv 26.012
Dinamo Zagreb 25.734
Brondby 21.758
Levski Sofia 21.599
FP England 20.428
Servette 20.384
Legia Warsaw 20.177
Grazer AK 19.971
Partizan Belgrade 18.654
Steaua Bucharest 17.88
Hearts 17.601
Amica Wronki 16.177
Debrecen 16.045
CSKA Sofia 15.599
Dnipro 14.301
Rapid Wien 12.971
Standard Liege 12.529
Groclin 12.177
Stabaek IF 11.227
Zenit St Petersburg 9.572
Beveren 9.529
Metalurh Donets'k 9.301
Odd Grenland 9.227
OB Odense 8.758
Bodø/Glimt 8.227
Obilic 7.654
FC Wil 7.384
Maribor 7.024
Olimpija Ljubljana 7.024

UNSEEDED
Hapoel Beer Sheva 7.012
Pasching 6.971
Rijeka 6.734
Zeleznik 6.654
Litex 6.599
Shinnik Yaroslavl 6.572
Rubin Kazan 6.572
Spartak Trnava 6.234
FP Denmark 5.758
Hammarby IF 5.516
IF Elfsborg 5.516
FP Sweden 5.516
Petrzalka 5.234
Kispest Honvéd 5.045
Otelul Galati 4.88
Tiraspol 3.024
AEL 2.969
Omonia 2.969
Haka Valkeakoski 2.938
Sarajevo 2.814
Sheriff 2.254
Birkirkara 2.099
FK Ventspils 1.979
Metalurgs Liepaja 1.979
Allianssi Vantaa 1.938
Borac 1.814
WIT 1.649
Torpedo Kutaisi 1.649
Sloga Jugomagnat 1.594
Sileks 1.594
Ekranas Panevezys 1.374
Zalgiris Vilnius 1.374

Cheers

Dunc

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 20-04-2004, 13:11	Duncan/Munja, Good work lads!! My list looks more like yours, Dunc Btw, congrat with the win of Portsmouth It is looking like another year in the EPL Good luck in advance for next season Regards

Author: Geordiepar
Date: 20-04-2004, 13:12

I think it is a fair assumption that even if Dunfermline beat Inverness tonight that they will be beaten by Celtic in the final, so Dunfermline in the Q2 and Hearts on round 1. In 14 games against Celtic since Martin O'Neill took over Dunfermline have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 13. Couldn't add up the goals against column as the numbers were too big for me.

Of course if we do win tonight I might be pleasantly surprised in the final!!!

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 20-04-2004, 13:40	Duncan, question concerning Austria and Sturm Graz I have seen at your list Grazer AK, Rapid Wien and SV Paching, but no Sturm Graz (with 30,971) Are you supposing they will lose the semi final against Austria? Regards

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 20-04-2004, 14:03	Duncan, next question concerning Bulgaria FC Lovech = FC Liteks (Litex) Lovech 12,599 In your list 6,599 (cp Bulgaria) Munja and you have much faith in Levski Sofia? Regards

Author: duncshine
Date: 20-04-2004, 15:20

Hi Eurycantha,

It's funny. When you are trying to 'guess' the entrants from about 50 separate countries, it is easier to forget exactly what assumptions you made. But here goes!

Bulgaria.
Title Holders: Plovdiv (go to UCL Q2)
2nd Place: Litex/Lovech (go to UEFA Q2)
3rd Place: CSKA Sofia (go to UEFA Q2)
Cup:
In the semi's are Lokomotiv Sofia, CSKA Sofia, Litex, Plovdiv.
If CSKA Sofia or Litex win, then an extra league place goes to UEFA Q2, so I guess Levski in 4th?
If Plovdiv win beating CSKA Sofia, then an extra league place goes to UEFA Q2, so again I guess Levski in 4th.
Of course, if Lokomotiv Sofia win, or lose to Plovdid in the final, then they go through and Levski are out. So for now I assume Levski, but after the cup semi-final 2nd leg, it may change again.

For Austria:
Austria Wien win and go to UCL Q2
Grazer AK and Rapid qualify for UEFA Q2 from league position.

Cup:
OK, I accept I'm struggling here! I have assumed for the moment that Austria Wien will beat Sturm Graz in the semi-final; and also that the winners of the Rapid/GAK quarter final will advance to the final. If ALL that happens, then an extra place would be forthcoming from the league, and Pasching are currently in 4th.

However, if Sturm, Ried or Kärnten win the Cup, then they are in.

Even I'm not sure if that works any more!!

In general, I try to assume the 'favourites' will win each match. Of course, when there are surprises, it turns everything upside down!

Oh, and Eurycantha, thanks for the kind words about Pompey beating Manchester United. We're not safe in the Premiership yet, but it was a massive step for us!

Cheers

Dunc

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Geordiepar Date: 20-04-2004, 15:25	dunc, were you at East End Park for the pre-season friendly between Dunfermline and Portsmouth :grin If Dunfermline can beat Portsmouth (albeit in a friendly) and Portsmouth can be Man Utd does that make Dunfermline a better team than Man Utd???? Sorry, just getting a bit excited about the SF replay tonight.

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 20-04-2004, 15:35	Duncan, thanks for explanation I agree with Levski Sofia I disagree for the time being with Pasching, only just because Sturm Graz has such a high cp In my opinion it is better to say you are now ranking 33rd (with Sturm Graz), and later on (when Austia Wien should beat Sturm), you're now ranked 32nd thean the other round with Pasching. But that's just my point of view! Cheers

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: duncshine Date: 20-04-2004, 15:42	Geordie, I'm afraid I didn't get up to the pre-season game, but I mam happy to agree with your logic. Dunfermline are clearly better than Man U! Good luck against ICT tonight! Dunc

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: duncshine Date: 20-04-2004, 15:45	Hi Eurycantha, I know what you mean about Austria. I guess you are picking favourites based on CP, while I am trying to pick favourites based on 'form'. Austria Wien are some 34 points ahead of Sturm. Still, Karnten will probably end up winning the cup and we'll both be wrong!!! Cheers

Author: Munja
Date: 20-04-2004, 18:47

To Eurycantha:

I made my lists looking at current standings.
But, for cup spots I had to guess.

I guessed that Dunfermline will qualify as cup loser.

In Bulgaria, Lokomotiva Plovdiv is currently 1st, Litex 2nd and CSKA 3rd And Levski is 4th and 7 pts ahead of Slavia and is playing cup sf. I dont think that Loko sofija can progress to final.

In Denmark, FK kopenhagen is currently 2nd so Brondbi is on CL Q2 position.

I guessed that one fp spot will get FK Bran and I used the worst case scenario for other two, so I gave them to Spain and England, so in my list all three fp teams are seeded.

And I mistook Sparta coeff. Sorry, I was in hurry.

Author: Eurycantha
Date: 20-04-2004, 22:56

Munja,

Thanks for your info
No problems with Sparta cp, we are here to help each-
other
I agree with the fp, I did the same
Will you please have a look at your 32nd position,
Rapid Bucuresti? Of course I may be wrong myself

Regards

Cup-results yesterday evening
Scotland: SF Dunfermline - Inverness 3-2
Congrat Geordiepar
Dunfermline in the final against Celtic (22/05)
Austria: QF Ried* - Karnten 2-2 * Ried win on penal-
ties, Duncan, out goes Karnten! Sorry, only joking!
Slovakia: QF Spartak Trvana - Lichortovce 0-1

Regards

Author: Eurycantha
Date: 20-04-2004, 23:10

Anita,

As you can see (Munja, Duncan) you have made a good
and tough job. All Norwegian teams on the safe side
in UC qr2, even if some changes may certainly occur.

If Sweden and/or England and another country will
enter with a team through the fairplay cup, will
the Swedish/English FA at last make some kind of
objection against the UNFAIR UEFA-handling?
I have read in an (English?) newspaper, that in
this case, the national association was asked
to boycot the fairplay cup.

Off topic: Eurycantha calcarata and/or horrida are
not from Australia, but from Indonesia and islands
between Indonesia and Australia; Australian phasmids
are a.o. Acrophylla wuelfingi and Extatosoma tiaratum;
and bugs are not related to phasmids, crickets and
grasshoppers (not from Zurich!!) do.

Regards

Author: duncshine
Date: 21-04-2004, 07:56

Hi Eurycantha

So the Pars are in Europe, seeded 67 in Round 1, so they'll need a shock to get to the Group, but I hope they manage it.

Shame about Karnten! I'll stick with Pasching in UEFA Q2 for now though!

And in Slovakia, Ruzomberok from the league and, for now, Petrzalka from the cup? No change to the seedings at my end for this one.

In England, Charlton missed the chance to go 4th last night and help Wisla Krakow get a seeding...

As to your point about the Fair Play, the English press are generally pretty smug that our consistently good fair play record keeps getting us extra places (Ipswich, Man City etc), so I don't think we'll be complaining as a National FA. The negative effect on our coefficient goes, as been discussed in other threads, pretty much unnoticed here!

Cheers

Duncan
Cheers

Dunc

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Geordiepar Date: 21-04-2004, 08:29	How happy am I!!!! Can someone please post a list of the teams they expect to be unseeded in the UEFA Q2, together with their countries. This would be very much appreciated. Thanks

Author: Eurycantha
Date: 21-04-2004, 08:54

Geordie,

Just look in this thread to Duncan's or Munja's
tough work. All the information about teams
(seeded and unseeded) are there. Questons?
Just ask!

Duncan,

You stick Pashing and I stick Sturm! It's fun!
I saw also that Munja and you have had different
choices about the Russian cupwinner. I will add
a third choice, and although i think i am rather
without much chance with Lokomotiv Moskva
(0-3 behind), I have to follow my cp-logic!

Cheers and regards

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Munja Date: 21-04-2004, 09:37	To Eurycantha About Rapid Bucurest You are right. I should have put some other team from cup sf. But it is stil possible that Rapid go to UEFA cup if Steaua win championship and Dinamo cup.

Author: duncshine
Date: 21-04-2004, 11:38

Well done Geordie,

Here are my calculations, but I warn you, I don't think I've taken account of whether teams enter as Cup Winners or Cup Losers. If we assume the worst, Dunfermline enter in Q2, not R1. I'm not sure how many other cup finals around Europe leave the same room for doubt. I'll have a look later today, but for now:

Q2 Seeded
Czech Republic - CW - Sparta Prague - 54.915
Czech Republic - UC2 - Slavia Prague - 49.915
Turkey - UC2 - Besiktas - 32.656
Israel - CW - Hapoel Tel Aviv - 26.012
Croatia - UC2 - Dinamo Zagreb - 25.734
Denmark - UC2 - Brondby - 21.758
Bulgaria - UC3 - Levski Sofia - 21.599
England - Fair Play - 20.428
Switzerland - UC2 - Servette - 20.384
Poland - CW - Legia Warsaw - 20.177
Austria - CW - Grazer AK - 19.971
Serbia - UC2 - Partizan Belgrade - 18.654
Romania - UC2 - Steaua Bucharest - 17.88
Poland - UC2 - Amica Wronki - 16.177
Hungary - UC2 - Debrecen - 16.045
Bulgaria - CW - CSKA Sofia - 15.599
Ukraine - CW - Dnipro Dnipropetrovs'k - 14.301
Austria - UC2 - Rapid Wien - 12.971
Belgium - UC2 - Standard Liege - 12.529
Poland - UC3 - Groclin - 12.177
Norway - UC2 - Stabaek IF - 11.227
Scotland - CL - Dunfermline - 10.601
Russia - UC2 - Zenit St Petersburg - 9.572
Belgium - CW - Beveren - 9.529
Ukraine - Metalurh Donets'k - 9.301
Norway - UC3 - Odd Grenland - 9.227
Denmark - CW - OB Odense - 8.758
Norway - CW - Bodø/Glimt - 8.227
Serbia - CW - Obilic - 7.654
Switzerland - CW - FC Wil - 7.384
Slovenia - UC2 - Maribor - 7.024
Slovenia - CW - Olimpija Ljubljana - 7.024

AND UNDSEEDED
Israel - UC2 - Hapoel Beer Sheva - 7.012
Austria - UC3 - Pasching - 6.971
Croatia - CW - Rijeka - 6.734
Serbia - UC3 - Zeleznik - 6.654
Bulgaria - UC2 - Litex - 6.599
Russia - CW - Shinnik Yaroslavl - 6.572
Russia - UC3 - Rubin Kazan - 6.572
Slovakia - UC2 - Ruzomberok - 6.234
Denmark - Fair Play - 5.758
Sweden - UC2 - Hammarby IF - 5.516
Sweden - CW - IF Elfsborg - 5.516
Sweden - Fair Play - 5.516
Slovakia - CW - Petrzalka - 5.234
Hungary - CW - Kispest Honvéd - 5.045
Romania - CW - Otelul Galati - 4.88
Moldova - CW - Tiraspol - 3.024
Cyprus - CW - AEL - 2.969
Cyprus - UC2 - Omonia - 2.969
Finland - CW - Haka Valkeakoski - 2.938
Bosnia - UC2 - Sarajevo - 2.814
Moldova - UC2 - Sheriff - 2.254
Malta - UC2 - Birkirkara - 2.099
Latvia - CW - FK Ventspils - 1.979
Latvia - UC2 - Metalurgs Liepaja - 1.979
Finland - UC2 - Allianssi Vantaa - 1.938
Bosnia - CW - Borac - 1.814
Georgia - UC2 - WIT - 1.649
Georgia - CW - Torpedo Kutaisi - 1.649
Macedonia - CW - Sloga Jugomagnat - 1.594
Macedonia - UC2 - Sileks - 1.594
Lithuania - UC2 - Ekranas Panevezys - 1.374
Lithuania - CW - Zalgiris Vilnius - 1.374

Eurycantha, Munja, any differences?

Cheers

Dunc

Author: Eurycantha
Date: 21-04-2004, 12:48

Duncan,

Confirmation, I do have the same 30 seeded teams,
only just like Munja I have put 3 FP-teams on top
of the seeded-list; as I explained in my opinion
it is nicer to say to the Slovenian teams (in
my list ranked 33rd and 34th, so unseeded) after
the FP-teams are known, that they will be seeded
than the other way round. But as I said before,
my point of view, to create first disappointment
which may turn in happiness, than the other way
round.

Regards

Author: duncshine
Date: 21-04-2004, 12:57

Eurycantha,

Yes, your method is at least as valid, if not more so, than my own!

I have another question for you though. We both have two Slovenian teams on the same points, but can searate them by 'countback' - ie, the team with the higher coefficient last year, then the year before.

However, imagine if a seeding line fell between, for example, Middlesbrough and Millwall in the UEFA cup. Since both teams have only their country's minimum coefficient, there is no way of separating them. Do you know what would happen in this instance?

Maybe priority would be decided by how they qualified... Cup Winner, Then League Position, The Cup Loser, then League Cup Winner ?

The situation could conceivably arise between BATE Borisov and Shaktior Saligorsk of Belarus in UEFA Q1...

Cheers

Duncan

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 21-04-2004, 13:06	Duncan, comparing the unseeded teams I have to correct my list (and your list?) of the seeded teams. Yesterday I mentioned FC Lovech = FC Litex Lovech But this team has a cp of 12,599, so has to be seeded?? There goes Wil!! I saw your question in a hurry, will come back to that later Regards

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: duncshine Date: 21-04-2004, 13:20	You're right, thanks Eury... Allowing for our different treatment of Fair Play, and a couple of 'cup final' issues, I think we now have the same lists. Of course, by the time the Fair Play draw is made, we will have a better idea of who needs to worry! Dunc

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 21-04-2004, 13:29	Duncan, I think you are right 1) cup winner 2) league position 3) cup loser 4) cup league winner so in England's case: Middlesbrough will always come in a position behind Millwall Regards

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: duncshine Date: 21-04-2004, 13:48	Thanks Eurycantha, Nice to have someone with whom to ceck these things!! Dunc

Author: anita
Date: 21-04-2004, 15:08

Thanks for input. Have been at work the last 25 hours (what a waste). I was somewhat afraid that I had messed up with the seeding for norwegian teams, but obviously not according to those of you that have bothered calculating.

To Duncan, yes, in Serbia you may call it 50% for Budocnost or Obilic to get a EC-spot, if the winner of the other semifinal win the series. But over all, the norwegian teams are pretty safe, but probably not according to Berts definitions: 99,9% is far from 100...

To vakho. Yes, last season was a disaster for Sweden, but my point is that this season may be as disastrous, especially if Djurgården fail to be seeded in CLQ2.

And as someone mentioned, when the FP-spots are announced, the picture is a little clearer what matters seeding in Round 1. And: a lot of the domestic cup-spots may be won by teams ranked lower than for instance the norwegian teams. Its to early, but I think the possibility for Norwegian teams to be seeded in Round 1, are relatively limited.

Regards, and thanks again for confirmation on my predictions.

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 21-04-2004, 15:14	Duncan, I have compared also the unseeded teams and one difference (Munja and myself have chosen Slovan Bratislava cp 7,234), but looking at the result of the first SF leg Slovan lost 1-3 and at HT in the second SF leg is trailing 0-1, so it looks like you are right with Petrzalka and we have to correct Slovan in Petrzalka Cheers

Author: anita
Date: 21-04-2004, 17:29

Hi Eurycantha and thanks for the info on phasmids. I dont know how I could have lived for one more day without that info...

And if you have seen some british newspapers writing about the inconsequence and unjustice on FP-spots. I have during the later years written to a lot of football associations (yes, UEFA as well, a lot of times) an sports desks about the stupidity.

The solution is simple. If UEFA calculate (count) the FP-team only by those occasions when the FP-team score more points than the average of the country, it would be fair, giving the country a chance to improve (just one example the last five years, Rayo Vallecano), but without losing ranking points (all the other examples the last five years!!)

Regards

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Munja Date: 21-04-2004, 18:36	But why wold enyone by unhappy when he gets an extra place? Hey, it is an extra place after all!!! If that club is weak, it can lower its country coefficient maybe 1 point or maybe even less, but it is uncomparable with an extra place!

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: anita Date: 21-04-2004, 18:52	Munja Norway have lost 1,300 points the last five years because of our FP-spots. So we would have had 18,000 points (instead of 16,700) and advancing from 19th to 16th (from start of season 2004-05), and that is important positions and important points. Its not fair losing points because you are fair, is it?

Author: Eurycantha
Date: 22-04-2004, 03:23

Munja,

Agree that the country gets one team more, but
as Anita has explained most countries are punished
for the simple reason that they got a team more
by a fair play cup. All fairplay teams are NOT
the strongest team of a coutry. They are ALWAYS
the less stronger (sometimes even the lest strongest)
of the country's highest (see for list of parti-
cipating fair play cup teams Bert's Fair Play Cup),
so in nearly all casec they are bringing their
country's cp down. So the fair play cup does have
a negativ influence on the cp. If UEFA should only
add the points and not add the team (or Anita's
proposal) it would be more fair.
By handling in the way UEFA has done during the past
years, the fair play cup has become a negativ gift.
Regards

Author: JPV
Date: 22-04-2004, 05:55

to demonstrate Eurycantha's & Anita's posts:

2004: RC Lens (fra), OB Odense (den), Man C (eng)

fra: 1.108
den: 0.425
eng: 0,428

2003: SK Brann (nor), Ipswitch & Olomouc

nor: 0.750
eng: 0.596
cze: 0.250

2002: Mypa-47 (fin), Slovakia (MŠK Ruzomberok), Soligorsk (Blr)

fin: 0.488
slo: 0
blr: 0.250

2001: Norrkoping (swe), Lierse SK, Rayo Vallecano

swe: 0.450
bel: 1.000
esp: .0485 (positive)

2000: Bodø/Glimt (nor), FC Tulevik Viljandi (est), Kilmarnock FC (sco)

Nor: .550
est: 0
sco: 1.375

esp: 0.0485 (positive)
est: 0.000
slo: 0.000
blr: 0.250
cze: 0.250
den: 0.425
eng: 0,428
swe: 0.450
fin: 0.488
eng: 0.596
bel: 1.000
fra: 1.108
nor: 1.300
sco: 1.375

effects on ranking:
new ranking (old ranking in first column):
1 Spain 78.928
2 England 62.499
3 Italy 59.186
4 Germany 49.489
5 France 48.576
6 Portugal 41.083
7 Greece 34.748
8 Netherlands 34.081
11 Scotland 33.500
9 Czech Republic 33.325
10 Turkey 32.291
12 Belgium 29.875
15 Norway 23.200
13 Switzerland 22.375
14 Ukraine 22.125
16 Poland 21.750
17 Israel 21.249
18 Austria 21.125
19 Serbia-Montenegro 20.165
20 Bulgaria 19.998

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: kerrbhoy Date: 22-04-2004, 06:08	So if it wasn't for Kilmarnock's Fair Play disaster, Scotland would have an automatic CL place for 2005/06! This is worth millions for Celtic, and it was probably Celtic who played a big part in getting Scotland high in the Fair Play Rankings!

Author: putzeijs
Date: 22-04-2004, 11:51

think you are right
In the Millwall - Middlesbrough case :

1) cup winner
2) league position
3) cup loser
4) cup league winner

so in England's case: Middlesbrough will always come
in a position behind Millwall

Would this decision not depent on the outcome of the cup-final? Millwall as cupwinner is in position 1, as cup loser in position 3. And as far as I think Middlesbrough is much better in league position (as Millwall are in D2)

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 22-04-2004, 12:04	Putzeijs/Duncan, In my opinion the winner of the league cup (Middlesbrough) will take the last available position (England's sixth/France's fifth). Now is it my turn to have a question: Millwall and Middlesbrough have the same cp, because they have no ec-history; if the fairplaycup-participant is English, with no ec-history, this team will be seeded behind Millwall and Middlesbrough? Regards

Author: anita
Date: 22-04-2004, 12:15

Thanks jeroen and my phasmidian friend Eurycantha.

Yes, I was afraid someone would ask me to prove the 1,300 points less for Norway. Its rather obvious, like Jeroen writes. And Norway is the country that have lost the most on this stupidstupid rule.

And I still think that my idea is OK. Of course the individual points will follow the FP-team (thats some of the reward), and those points must must be divided on the numbers of teams included the FP-team ( I mean 33% or 50% or whatever). But the other teams will get a nation score divided with the teams minus the FP-team, as long as the FP-team dont get more points than the nation average.

Have a feeling I am trying to explain something in a more and more difficult way that 99,9% of you already have understood, but then comes the "Gospel according to Bert", the 0,01%. The per mill that is the thrill of football (Deportivo-Milan) and the essence of all football statistics (the chance for Norway to get that 15th place after this season. Seemed very far fetched in october).

But anyway, to repeat myself repeatingly, I have spent a lot of energy explaining high and low how UEFA's system is working. On this forum it seems to be the basic knowledge to be allowed to participate.

Reason why I dont like to prove obvious things, are obvious. My Excel-based FP-spot updates itself with UEFA rules and with my ideas of rules. Btw, Jeroen, did you get my e-mail with attachment explaining "Ranking points system for dummies", which I have got more and more football journalists to understand?

Regards to all

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: JPV Date: 22-04-2004, 12:26	haven't recieved anything... you could send it to my e-mail adres mentioned in the other tread, if possible?

Author: anita
Date: 22-04-2004, 14:03

Hi Jeroen

Sent it to the adress with six'ers. Got no Daemon Mail, but give me a hint on your other thread. It was not to show off, I am eager to see how you consider my work and how you eventually have arranged your site, giving me eventual hints on simplifications in Excel. I am almost autodidact on Excel and have next to nothing friends that can explain me when I'm trying to improve.

Sometimes I have a feeling that its an easier way around.

But anyway, I've been at ..heertogenbosch (last year) and Prado (20 years ago) looking at one of my friends Jeroen van Aeken.

Regards

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: JPV Date: 22-04-2004, 14:07	jeroen _ coolsaet @ hotmail . com wil do better . the other one is mainly for spam.

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: duncshine Date: 22-04-2004, 14:15	Hi Eurycantha, Your point about a Fair Play team is well made. Charlton are currently leading Fair Play and would have the same coefficient and history in Europe as Middlesbrough and Millwall. My guess would be 1. Cup Winner 2. League Position 5th 3. League Position 6th 4. Cup Loser 5. League Cup Winner 5. Intertoto Entrant (though England hasn't entered) 6. Fair Play Entrant

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 22-04-2004, 14:17	Duncan, Í fully agree with that Regards

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: Eurycantha Date: 22-04-2004, 14:19	Anita, should be: 's-Hertogenbosch or "Den Bosch" FC Den Bosch is their team, at the moment playing in the first division, but sometimes in the past in the Dutch Eredivisie Regards

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: anita Date: 22-04-2004, 15:23	Hi Eurycantha Was a joke with.....hertoogenbosch, because I've been there last year looking at Jeroen van Aekens home. Just trying to make a joke about that famous painter that luckily took a latino name. Out of topics, sorry regards

Author: anita
Date: 22-04-2004, 15:59

Agree with Duncan with his ranking on no-merited teams. Seems logic, because I think (UEFA thinks, I mean) the Intertoto-team ought to be ranked before the FP-team, because the FP-teams are not dependant of the position in the League (Ipswich, ManC), but the Intertoto-teams cant attend if they have not achieved a high-ranked position in the league.

And since the cup-loser always rank behind the eventual third team amongst the nations 9-16, thats natural for other positions.

And finally, UEFA hates the League cup winner, so they rank where Duncan suggests.

Anyway, this may give the seeding in Round 1 an interesting twist.

Author: kerrbhoy
Date: 23-04-2004, 11:49

"Yes, I was afraid someone would ask me to prove the 1,300 points less for Norway. And Norway is the country that have lost the most on this stupidstupid rule"

Actually, Scotland has lost 1.375 points from the rule.

As noted elsewhere it ACTUALLY has cost Scotland an automatic CL place in 2005/06. Perhaps Norway/Rosenborg's losses (is there a difference?) have always been less significant.

Maybe in Northern Europe we should start diving about & assaulting referees like they do in the South and get rid of this Fair Play curse.

Re: Sweden v. Norway and seeding
Author: anita Date: 26-04-2004, 13:46	Hi kerrbhoy You are absolutely right about the loss on FP-spots. Norway has lost most in places, but as you mention, more points and more frustrating for Scotland, and accidentily less significant for Norway since Norway in their last match this season (Rozenborg- Benfica) managed to climb to 15th place and then getting two CLQ teams in 2005/06. Sorry and thanks for correction.