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Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: Ricardo Date: 28-02-2003, 09:38	With and Porto and Boavista trough. Portugal is going to be on th 7th spot! And poor Holland is dropping to 8. It is not looking like they will drop further, but Portugal, with next year again only 4 teams playing is going up and might challenge Greece for 6th place next year ....

Author: sr_sofisticacao
Date: 28-02-2003, 13:28

Hey, Ricardo!
I think you are being too optimistic. Ok, this year was historic for Portugal with two teams in the quarter finals, but to reach the 7th or 6th is too much. If you saw that Portugal is in 7th place in the "O JOGO" newspaper I think it's wrong... See the rankings in this site. I think these are the correct ones. Well, maybe next year, if Benfica keeps playing well and Porto doesn't sell Deco, maybe we can do ok, but Sporting always is lousy in Europe so we can never count on them for ranking purposes... And no Boavista next year in european cups next year... So I think Portugal will still be 8th (maybe 7th) but never 6th, unfortunately.
These last two years were very good for our ranking, but I think they were two freak years and will not repeat in the near future.
Who do you support?
And I think FC Porto and Boavista have good chances to go through, but I think Panathinaikos and Málaga will go to the semis... Hope I'm wrong!

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: Aramis Date: 28-02-2003, 13:54	Hey sr_sofisticacao, you should be more optimistic. I think we all must believe that's possible to reach higher places. With a strong Porto, a amazing Benfica and others (remember Leixões from 2nd division B!!!) all is possible. Some weeks ago I discuss with many that didn't believe that Boavista could reach the Quarter-Finals, and know look!

Author: jpcccc
Date: 01-03-2003, 05:46

Portugal is not 7th yet... But it is getting very near.

If you look at the provisional country ranking for 2004 (after dumping 98/99 results) in http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/crank04.html you can see that Portugal will be just below 6th placed Greece. Only two points below. Furthermore, in 2003/2004 Portugal will still have 4 teams while Greece will have 6 teams. So, it's very likely that Portugal will get over Greece in the ranking. Main problem is how to avoid a comeback from Netherlands, Turkey or Czech Republic (this last one also with 4 teams).

So, however still false, this topic is VERY possible. It all depends on how Sporting and Benfica will perform next year on Europe. If they act like in last years, Portugal will surely never get there...

On current CL access list, 6th place gets 3 CL spots (two direct, one in QR3) while 7th place gets only 2 CL spots (1direct, 1QR3) just like 9th spot !

So, maybe this can make Sporting and Benfica start playing like they should outside Portugal...

Author: sr_sofisticacao
Date: 03-03-2003, 15:21

Ok, maybe Portugal can go to 6th place, but I think it's too much... I think the overall value of the portuguese league isn't the 6th best in Europe.
If we put 4 teams in Europe it's ok, but when we put 6 again... well, I don't know.
For instance... Next year it's going to be FC Porto and Benfica in CL, and Sporting and some other in UEFA. If Sporting and Porto go to the cup final, then it's the 4th in league that goes to UEFA. But if Sporting or Porto meet before the final we risk having Moreirense or Varzim in UEFA cup. I saw what Leixões did this year, but they were luckier than most portuguese teams in their draws...
On the other hand, ok so in 6 teams we may have one that isn't that good that comes from the cup and the 5 best of Portugal... So maybe we can maintain the ranking after having 6 teams again. I don't know...
Let's hope FC Porto and Boavista can go to the semis (I don't believe it)and see if we can get those 6 teams again!
Still don't understand why are there no countries with 5 teams in UEFA...

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: Ricardo Date: 03-03-2003, 17:39	I'm from Holland and also don't think Holland should be 6th. We have 3 top teams (PSV, Ajax, Feyenoord) and the others can win against small teams. But I think it's with most Countries in this area: they have a few good teams, playing in the European cups (almost) every year. Never 6.

Author: ivar01
Date: 03-03-2003, 20:05

I'm from holland too, I think portugal has a big chance of advancing to 7th place because points Ajax will make are devided by 6 and the portugal points by 4 and there are 2 left so if they would get at least 2 wins they should be there provided that ajax wont reach quarter finals, which is possible too.

But the question is if portugal is able to get just as many points as holland with 6 teams in european leagues.......
(not that hard the way holland did this year)

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: JasonJC Date: 06-03-2003, 16:31	If Porto beats Panathinaikos they might have a chance to reach 6th place in a couple of years. If Panathinaikos go through the gap will be even bigger.

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: jpcccc Date: 06-03-2003, 17:08	I guess that JUST dumping the 98/99 results will put Portugal much nearer to Greece and above Netherlands, in 2004. The evolution from then on depends on match outcome, including Ajax's performance in CL and the Porto-Panathinaikos clash. The bottom line is still the same, however: it's better to be 9th than 8th or 7th. The only spot even better than 9th is 6th. Regards.

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: bert.kassies Date: 06-03-2003, 18:31	See country ranking graph

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: JasonJC Date: 07-03-2003, 10:33	This graph is very interesting – Bert you are full of surprises! It seems that if the Netherlands or Portugal can reach the 6th place they will take it from France and not Greece! Very interesting. Also quite interesting is the vast decline of Turkey which is expected since it depends on the performance of Galatasaray and they are not doing very good the last two years.

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: rod_c Date: 07-03-2003, 12:45	Very impressed with the graph - amazing leap award to Israel. I'd hope for Scotland to pass Belgium now (praying for a good result for Celtic v Liverpool). Looks like we need to keep up the performances or Israel could be passing us.

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: sr_sofisticacao Date: 07-03-2003, 15:56	Very nice graph! Can we choose only some countries to compare? What happened to Russia and Turkey? No doubt, its the fact that they had 6 teams. Their average dropped a lot...

Author: jpcccc
Date: 08-03-2003, 02:20

Amazing idea, Bert. A image is better than a lot of words. And you should be awarded a medal, maybe nº 1 spot in the ranking

. I have never seen this on an official site. Anyway, allow me to make a suggestion, if it is possible (i'm lousy with spreadsheets...):

Could rankings before 2003 (past and fixed), current 2003 ranking (present) and post-2003 rankings (future predictions) have different background colors ? Or highlighted as different in some other way ?

That would show that the only years that are true 5-year averages are those before 2003... Following years' data is still incomplete.

Regards.

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 08-03-2003, 12:06

sr_sofisticacao wrote: Can we choose only some countries to compare?
Unfortunately, that will not be possible at the moment. Without additional money my provider (xs4all.nl) will not allow me to use interactive webcontent. As you may have noticed this little forum is running on a remote (free) server. But (speaking technically) it's not possible to run the graphic program on that server.

jpcccc wrote: Could rankings before 2003 (past and fixed), current 2003 ranking (present) and post-2003 rankings (future predictions) have different background colors?
First of all that's not so easy done with this plotting program (ploticus). But I also hesitate to add more information to the graph (it's already very detailed). So I did put an extra vertical line at the current year to indicate the past and the future.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 10-03-2003, 08:09

Bert,
Fantastic, it great to see the rise and fall of nations!(well, only their soccerteams ofcourse).
Ofcourse the last entries are less complete. I don't think England will still fall in a couple of weeks, as they will gain some more points in the last rounds to come, while Germany is almost out completely.
Is it possible to mention that 2003 is almost 5 years, 2004 almost 4, 2005 almost 3 and 2006 almost 2??.
It is disturbing to see that even after not even 2 year the big 4(I already thought before I had to drop France) are on top. Only to strengthen themselves every year.

Bert, Will there be a shortcut to this graphic to have an updated view at every time?
Thanks

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: bert.kassies Date: 10-03-2003, 10:41	Ricardo, You're right. The graph could use some more explanation. The shortcut is now available in the main page header. The graph is designed to be automaticly updated each time the database is updated with new results.

Author: krdeluxe
Date: 11-03-2003, 12:37

jpcccc, why it's better to be 9th than to be 7th or 8th? I think it is better when your country has 6 teams in European cups than 4 teams, because it's good for the clubs (financial) and for their individual team coefficient. I agree 4 teams is better for the country coefficient. Every country will try to go as high as possible.

I think that it is best for a country (coefficient) the year it drops from 6 teams to 4 teams, because their team coefficients are still high and the teams are still seeded, so they can get a lot of points (with only 4 teams).

Author: jpcccc
Date: 12-03-2003, 01:30

Exactly. As you say, the country coefficient and ranking works best for 9th than for7th or 8th. And i was talking only about that... Not about number of teams or finantial income.

If a country has 7 or 8 great teams, that would not happen. However, most countries below 5th spot only have 3 or 4 teams able to compete in Europe without degrading country ranking. That is also Portugal's main problem... Last year we had 6 teams on Europe, i remember that Vitoria Setubal lost 7-0 to Rome and there were other embarrassing results. It was not very good to see last year's 5th placed team lose like that... but it was true.

If 7th and 8th spots only had 5 teams, the ranking would be more stable below 5th spot.

Regards.

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: blancjb15 Date: 12-03-2003, 21:23	Just note that it's the same problem for Greece: Greece has now 41 points for 6 teams : 6,833 If Greece had only 4 teams, they would have 38 points for 4 teams (because Xanthi and Iraklis scored only 3 points together). So the average would be 9,5! Largely upon Portugal!

Author: molosztash
Date: 14-03-2003, 10:36

i think it's better for country but, if we had 4 teams this year, we wouldn't have the joy of Denizli... also getting the last position of uefa places, denizli scored more than kocaeli, ankaragücü, fenerbahce or galatasaray...

football is the game of surprises, and we would have no surprise if always the same teams go to europe...

this year i hope Besiktas comes first, and Gençlerbirligi second in the league, to go to champions league (even i know galatasaray would do better in the CL).

Author: pollymac
Date: 14-03-2003, 12:30

re jpccc, 8th March: never seen this graph on an official site.

Only just started posting on this site a couple of days ago, I post on uefa.com/fanzone/forums as well (for past few months) and since UEFAs co-efficient info is hard to find I put in a link to this site on a post and they withdrew the damn thing.

Found a site in geocities with historical info on scottish clubs rankings and sequences going back to '74: http://uk.geocities.com/scottishfootballineurope
any plans to put historical data as far back as this for individual countries on a graph?
anyone else got links for other countries (particularly Greece - PAO 2nd fav. team)

Lastly, keep up the good work Bert, great site.

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: jpcccc Date: 21-03-2003, 01:08	Well, with two teams in the semis of UC, i guess now that it is very possible to reach 6th next year.

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: jpcccc Date: 21-03-2003, 01:11	... even 7th spot this year (it depends on the draw of both Portugese teams and of Ajax...)

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: bert.kassies Date: 21-03-2003, 09:04	Portugal just needs 1 point (ranking 0.25) to take the 6th position at the start of the next season.

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: benfica Date: 21-03-2003, 18:00	Its all well and good, but next year Boavista will probably not make Europe due to there poor play in domestic cup, Sporting never does anything in Europe, Benfica will again be in CL along with Porto, and 2 unknown Portuguese teams will also compete in UEFA Cup... Hopefully, next year will not be a disaster for Portuguese teams in Europe....

Re: Portugal 7th!, next year 6th ?!
Author: Ricardo Date: 26-03-2003, 08:53	Next year Portugal still has 4 entries don't they? so what do you mean by 2 unknown teams: Sporting and Guimaraes are not that unknown

Author: sr_sofisticacao
Date: 28-03-2003, 15:12

It won't be Sporting and Guimarães...
It will be Sporting or Guimarães through the 3rd place spot in the league and the finalist of the cup against Porto (they still aren't qualified to the final, but they are going to play a 2nd division team in Porto for the semi-finals).
The other semi-final is Leiria - Paços de Ferreira
I hope it's Leiria. This year in Intertoto, they won both games and were eliminated (they had a player that wasn't properly signed or something like that...)