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Author: yanivbm88
Date: 31-08-2013, 02:12
| I would like to mention a problem I have noticed today in EL GS draw.
I'm from Israel so I followed the Israeli teams draw, but I'm sure it happens to many other teams:
Israel has two teams, Maccabi Haifa in pot 3 and Maccabi tel Aviv in pot 4. Maccabi Haifa was drawn to group L, so Maccabi tel aviv had groups A-F avalible. That means that if Maccabi tel aviv will be drawn in the first 5 balls, they would get the similar group (A-E). However if they will be drawn in the last 7 balls, they will be in group F. Thats more than 50 percent for one group! Very distorted in my opinion.
It would be much better if each team's group will be drawn by a ball, than a team will have more chances of having more than one option eventually. Uefa try to shorten procedures but ruin the randomness of the draw. |
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Author: SirHenri
Date: 31-08-2013, 10:32
| Think over it, it'S mathematical corrct. It's never more than 50 % ;-) |
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Author: simonk
Date: 31-08-2013, 19:21
| You are right, but it's also random which teams have been drawn into group F before. |
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Author: yanivbm88
Date: 31-08-2013, 19:27
Edited by: yanivbm88
at: 31-08-2013, 19:31 | How did you figure out that it is not more than 50%?
If a team drawn in the last seven balls they will be in group F (in the conditions I mentioned).
Anyway it's better to draw the group by a ball, because than the first drawn teams will be distributed between sides, so a side-limited team will have more options in their side if they are being drawn late
@simonk
In any case the odds of being drawn to the last avalible group is extremely high. (If group F is unavalible than it would be group E) |
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Author: greenbay
Date: 31-08-2013, 20:07
Edited by: greenbay
at: 31-08-2013, 20:09 | You are right, but it's also random which teams have been drawn into group F before.
No, it's not. Frankfurt's chances of ending up in group F were also much higher, due to the being paired with Freiburg.
For Frankfurt and Tel-Aviv both to end up in group F, we need:
Step 1: Freiburg to group G to L from pot 2
Step 2: Frankfurt not drawn among the first five balls from pot 3
Step 3: Haifa to group G to L from pot 3
Step 4: Tel-Aviv not drawn among the first five balls from pot 4
Probabilities:
Step 1: 1/2
Step 2: 1/2 * 7/12
Step 3: 1/2 * 7/12 * 6/11 (F is blocked for Haifa if Step 2 happens)
Step 4: 1/2 * 7/12 * 6/11 * 7/12 = 9.2%
This 9.2% is already more than 1/12, the "natural" likelihood that Tel Aviv face Frankfurt in a open drawn without any TV pairings and without any country protection.
On top comes another 9.2% for the scenario that Freiburg and Haifa go to groups A to F with Frankfurt and Tel-Aviv both ending up in group G.
On top comes another 3.8% for the scenario that Freiburg and Haifa go into the same half of groups, with Frankfurt and Tel-Aviv meeting in one of the other 10 groups.
Total: 22.3% chance that Frankfurt and Tel-Aviv would face each other... |
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