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| Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 11-08-2013, 04:32 | Reasoning from those discussions: https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum/view.php?topic=20130720133946.xml https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum/view.php?archive=2012&topic=20120830192619.xml https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum/view.php?archive=2012&topic=20120901115141.xml :. SpainAtletico qualified this year. But even if TV wise it could likely be better to have the two Madrid sides (Real and Atletico) paired (hence not playing the same night), it is way more likely that the TVs top priority will still be to avoid the two big rivals Real and Barcelona playing in the same night, as AFAIK is has always been. Possible pairings: :. EnglandLast year qualified the same clubs, so let's consider possible the same pairings. Possible pairings: :. GermanyLast year Bayern and Borussia were paired, the same is possible this year. Possible pairings: :. ItalyWithout AC Milan the pairing will forcedly be Juventus with Napoli. With AC Milan it is instead likely that Juventus will be paired with AC Milan. Possible pairings: :. PortugalPorto and Benfica Lisboa will likely be the pairing. Possible pairings: :. FranceParis St-Germain with Olympique Marseille could maybe be the pairing, reasoning in terms of fan base, also with all three clubs qualified. But with all three clubs qualified the pairing could be something else: PSG with Lyon, or even the two Olympique paired. Possible pairings: :. Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Turkey Possible pairings: Cheers!  - nemesys |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: MudHen
Date: 11-08-2013, 08:45 | you have to realize that this process can include more than two clubs at a time. For example, in Spain, aside from putting Real and Barca in different halves of the draw, they will probably decide to let Real and Atletico play on different nights too. That is because, even if the two Madrid clubs will not play at home on the same week, confrontations between fans are possible. So, I'm saying a better way to look at it is by pairing the clubs by the day they are playing: Real and Sociedad vs Barca and Atletico. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: alexmorgan
Date: 11-08-2013, 12:43 Edited by: alexmorgan at: 11-08-2013, 12:45 | @ MudHen you have to realize that this process can include more than two clubs at a time That has never happened. There have been times in the past where two clubs from the same city were not paired and drawn in the same colour groups: 11/12: Manchester United and Manchester City drawn into groups C and A; played their GS matches on the same day; computer ensured that if one was at home, the other played away. 11/12: Chelsea and Arsenal drawn into groups E and F; played their GS matches on the same day; computer ensured that if one was at home, the other played away. 09/10: Real Madrid and Atletico drawn into groups C and D; played their GS matches on the same day; computer ensured that if one was at home, the other played away. Real Madrid and Barcelona have always been paired, regardless as to whether other Madrid or Barcelona clubs have qualified. @Nemesys I agree with your predicts entirely. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 11-08-2013, 14:42 Edited by: nemesys at: 11-08-2013, 15:02 | @MudHen Another way to look at it. In the case of four clubs from the same country, a first club drawn doesn't influence the destiny of all the other three: only one club is directly influenced**, the one is paired with. In your scenario: let say Real Madrid, first pick, goes AD. This would mean that automatically: - Barca is EH (paired) - Atletico is EH (same city) - Real Sociedad AD (you must have 2 red and two blue) Pairings put some noticeable limitations on the randomness of the draw, but not that much! **(EDIT: to be precise, all clubs are somehow influenced: if the first club picked goes in group A, none of the other three can go in group A. I was talking only red/blue wise: only one club, the club is paired with the club picked, has its destiny - red side or blue side - already "decided" when the first club is picked). @alexmorgan 11/12: Manchester United and Manchester City drawn into groups C and A; played their GS matches on the same day; computer ensured that if one was at home, the other played away. So in the 2011-12 season they were NOT paired. Thanks, nice to know that I just got confused between 2011-12 and 2012-13 pairings saying Manchester clubs weren't paired. A Bit OT: Sorry all for cross posting this subject from the other discussion: With Inter, AC Milan and Juventus qualified, the choice AFAIK was often pairing Inter and AC Milan (rather than pairing Juventus, the club most followed, with one of the two sides from Milan); I thought that this pairing (Inter and AC Milan) was also a need since the two clubs being located in the same city and sharing the stadium; but cleared out that sharing the stadium has actually nothing to do with pairings (in any case, both red, both blue, or one red and one blue, the week AC Milan plays home, Inter plays away), I guess it was chosen this way since it allowed to have the two rivals playing in different nights, and with two out the 3 clubs that would play in the same night anyways, they maybe considered that for Juventus matches was about the same good either playing in a different night than Inter, or in a different night than AC Milan. I would think the same for England about London and Manchester sides: even if it is not needed for location reasons (see above) I guess for TVs it could maybe be better to have Manchester sides (United and City) playing on different night, and London sides (Arsenal and Chelsea) as well. So, if you have any clue about it (and a bit of time to spend), can you maybe tell why back in 2011-2012 Manchester City and Manchester United were not paired? And hence as well Chelsea and Arsenal were not? Cheers! - nemesys Edit: corrected the name of the fourth Spanish club, added a note. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: MudHen
Date: 11-08-2013, 15:09 | I said it can happen Not that it has happened. That is how i would do it and for me it makes more sense this way. Whole economy would be boosted if teams in the same city played on different nights. The bars would be packed both nights with people watching the games. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: alexmorgan
Date: 11-08-2013, 15:14 | So, if you have any clue about it (and a bit of time to spend), can you maybe tell why back in 2011-2012 Manchester City and Manchester United were not paired? And hence as well Chelsea and Arsenal were not? When the draw was made, I was really shocked to see the two Manchester clubs in the same coloured group. I think this was purely based for TV. Manchester United won the Premier League the season before, Chelsea finished second. I dont think Manchester City was seen as a ratings puller at the time, it was their first qualification to the Champions League. Of course all that is different now, thats why we see Man Utd and City paired. The whole TV pairing arguement doesnt really hold up in England. We have two stations that show CL matches: - ITV (free, they show 1 match each matchday, on a Tuesday)[NOTE: ITV has first choice in picking the game to show> - Sky (pay, they show the remaining 15 matches, 7 on Tuesday, 7 on Wednesday, all can be viewed via interactive services [well, this was the case when I had Sky Sports>. So pairing for TV ratings doesnt really matter, as all games can be viewed (although you can only watch two live.....hmm.....) |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 11-08-2013, 15:44 | @MudHen Ah. I misunderstood your post then. @alexmorgan Thanks for your reply, What you say about City makes sense. (although you can only watch two live.....hmm.....) I could be wrong, but I __think__ this is the whole point! I suppose it is not about broadcasting all matches, it is more about maximizing the viewers I guess. In England probably fan % between clubs is more balanced than else where, but let's make it extreme with unreal big numbers. Let say a country qualifies in CL 2 really popular clubs (A and B) that can grab (each one) up to 90% of the population watching their game, and two other clubs (C and D) only 40% (each) in the best case (or just a third one, club C, without club D). The best number of viewers you can have is having A not playing the same night of B, hence with the two events not "stealing" viewer from each-other, so this is why I guess TVs wise to have the two main events (club A match and club B match) in different nights it should be better. Just my 2 cents from my logic. Cheers! - nemesys |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: MudHen
Date: 12-08-2013, 08:14 | About what Alex said (two different broadcasters have the first and second option each day), let's order the 4 teams by expected TV ratings: A, B, C, D. Let's assume ITV (in this case) picks the games of A and B. Then, Sky will want to pick C to play on the same day as B. But the choices are made after the draw on actual games. So if C or D play a stronger team, that game may be a first choice. But, as it may have been said here before, I am sure that this is done with three teams per country, especially when one of them has a greater fan base than the other two, but I'm not that sure this is the case with four teams. As you can see above, there are a lot of cases when teams from the same area have played on the same nights. On the other hand, even if some teams are better or worse over the course of the seasons, the main criteria in broadcasting games is the fan base. That's why Man City being the second force in England will not pair them with United. Although they may have more fans in the Manchester area, when it comes to the whole UK, the Devils make up for it and then some. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: ransborg
Date: 12-08-2013, 09:50 | You also have to remember that the TV rights are also sold outside of the UK. In Denmark 3+, which has first pick on a round, will almost always show Man United, even though they are playing some lousy team, unless a Danish team is playing, or one of the other big teams like Barcelona and Real Madrid are playing a more interesting match the same day. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 12-08-2013, 10:37 | @MudHen Thanks for the reply. But, as it may have been said here before, I am sure that this is done with three teams per country, especially when one of them has a greater fan base than the other two, but I'm not that sure this is the case with four teams. Yes. I agree. Take for example Portugal this year: having Benfica and Porto playing both Tuesday, and the other minor club (fan base wise, with all the respect for the club) playing alone on Wednesday, it wouldn't be the best scenario for TVs I guess. With four clubs it is a bit less probable to have two minor club, but it still possible: in Spain Barcelona and Real Madrid I guess have way more fans than any other club, even if not minor; and their matches I guess are anyways more appealing for "not fans" than some other club match. Last year (2011-12) in Serie A the final ranking IIRC was: Juventus, Milan, Udinese, Lazio. If Serie A would still have 3+1 CL spots and Lazio would qualify from PO, then having Milan and Juventus paired I guess it was important for TVs. The TV scenario here seems to me quite close to yours: Rai gets one match on Wednesday, with a Serie A club involved, viewable for free. While both Sky (satellite) and Premium (digital) gets all the CL matches in Pay per View. I don't believe TVs fight. And I guess the most viewers they get, the most they will pay Uefa for the product in the next contract. Hence, I guess, it is in the interest of both TVs and Uefa to don't have big events on the same night. And IMO it is not just about fans, but also about global interest of the event: Real and Barcelona playing the same night means that a Spanish fan of a club not in CL that would watch both Real and Barca matches in a CL week, cannot. I could be wrong, but I believe this is the target TVs (and hence Uefa) want to achieve pairing the clubs: maximizing the potential viewers. I assume (please correct me if I'm wrong) that being the most successful internationally, Manchester United and Liverpool should be both highly ranked in fan base and global interest in England. Having Liverpool and Manchester United playing the same night, while WestHam* and Fulham* playing the next one, I believe would get less total CL viewers that week across the country than having Manchester United and Liverpool playing on different nights. Even worse would be having Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea playing one night, and only a surprising Bolton* finishing 4th in EPL playing the next (since pairing also make sure that two clubs are red and two clubs are blue!). *(with all the respect for WestHam, Fulham, and Bolton). But I understand that in England the clubs are always the same (United, Arsenal, Chelsea, + Liverpool or Totthenham or City), all of them are strong enough to be potential main protagonists in the competition, and probably (con someone confirm?) have a fan base more evenly distributed than elsewhere; so maybe from England TVs point of view it doesn't really matter, and you (and as well alexmorgan) are likely perfectly correct saying that as long as there are two EPL matches every night, there are no big differences for TVs. And as in the previous post, just my two random cents from my logic! Cheers! - nemesys |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: MudHen
Date: 12-08-2013, 11:05 | The fact that people outside England, for example, would want to see both United and City doesn't make a difference. The pairings are made by the domestic broadcasters. I know that Barca's games have more viewers around the world than in Spain, but that's how it works. That is mainly because clubs receive shares out of the TV pool based on domestic ratings. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: executor
Date: 12-08-2013, 15:57 | MudHen: That is mainly because clubs receive shares out of the TV pool based on domestic ratings. Are you referring to the CL pool? Because that is divided according to league position, not domestic TV ratings. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 12-08-2013, 16:40 | I suppose the TV stations pay a lot and therefor can decide which teams they want to have on different days. only reasonable, not? They want to sell the most views, and therefor need to have certain teams seperated. If they get guaranteed that certain teams are seperated, they are able to sell more views, as people can't watch 2 teams at the same time. But if England watchers prefer to see Madrid and Barcelona seperated, they will have their influence on the parings. I can imagine. If only in SPain they want the Madrids seperated and all other countries all over the world Barca and Madrid, I think Barca and Madrid will be seperated. Spanish TV will pay less, but other countries more, right? So I think it's UEFA to gather all info on requested combination/seperations and make their decisions, based on money. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 12-08-2013, 17:03 Edited by: nemesys at: 12-08-2013, 17:09 | @MudHen Sorry, I used the wrong word. With "Global" (Interest) I meant "General", not "World-Wide". What I wanted to point out it is that there are popular clubs in any country which are more likely to be watched even by generic audience (instead of just fans of that specific club). A popular club match in CL is likely the argument of the next day conversations way more than a minor club CL match (except for the fans of that minor club, of course). Hence _IF_ there are two popular and two minor clubs qualified in CL for a country, I guess domestic TVs would likely welcome pairing the two popular and the two minor: having both the popular clubs playing on Tuesday would likely decrease the potential viewers in Wednesday. I'm pretty confident this could likely be the case in Italy, Spain, Germany, Portugal... ; but from what I read from your and alexmorgan posts I understand that this factor is not too relevant for England TVs, since you are explaining that any combination of matches (on Tuesday / Wednesday) played by United, City, Arsenal and Chelsea (or switching one of those four with Tottenham or Liverpool), at the end of that CL week would attract about the same sum of total viewers. Thanks to both for the info and explications. Sorry again for the misuse of the word Global, I wasn't meaning "Globally", the discussion was intended as England market related. Cheers! - nemesys EDIT: spelling correction, minor changes. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 12-08-2013, 17:22 | @Ricardo I'm not too sure. I guess that the pairing of the clubs from a specific country are decided by the TV that broadcasts in that country. I doubt there is an Europe-wide democracy of TVs interests (whatever this could mean, LOL). I'm pretty confident that the pairing of Serie A clubs are influenced by the will of Sky Italia, Mediaset Premium, and maybe Rai. I strongly doubt English, Spanish or other broadcasters would have the right to have a say on the issue: "pairing Inter with AC Milan, or Inter with Juventus, or AC Milan with Juventus?". But I'm not too sure, so maybe I'm wrong. Just my two cents. By the way, I like the fact that country with two or more clubs have the matches involving their clubs equally divided between Tuesday and Wednesday; but I'm actually not too enthusiastic of specific pairing of clubs for country with three or more, since it influence the randomness of the draw a bit too much, and TVs interests on my priority scale rank lower than most possible randomness of the draw. Of course, not a problem at all, only a personal side note: I just find kind of ironic that in this discussion seems like I'm defending the TVs interests with so much care, as if it was someone I care about, or myself (and unfortunately not), getting the money! Cheers! - nemesys |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: MudHen
Date: 12-08-2013, 20:33 | Well you have to realize that he who pays has the say. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 13-08-2013, 10:37 | @nemesys, I think the amount e.g. the Italian TV would pay less if their 'demand' is not happening is more than the sum of what the other countries will pay less if their 'Italian' demand is not becoming true. But I think, if UEFA is capitalistic and wise, it should be taken into account. But maybe it's too complex for UEFA, though it fits in the UEFA mysterie environment, lack of transperancy, etc.  If I had collected all those two cents you have dropped here on the forum I would have been a rich man! |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 13-08-2013, 16:01 Edited by: nemesys at: 13-08-2013, 16:05 | If I had collected all those two cents you have dropped here on the forum I would have been a rich man! Please, help yourself! I'm fine gifting people my opinions, they cost me nothing!  Cheers! - nemesys Edit: misspelling correction. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: alexmorgan
Date: 29-08-2013, 18:23 | Chelsea and Arsenal not paired!!!  |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: simonk
Date: 29-08-2013, 22:32 | 'Chelsea and Arsenal not paired!!!' - should they? |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 30-08-2013, 04:10 | @alexmorgan As you said, Chelsea and Arsenal were not paired. All the rest of the pairings were pretty expected. What is the true logic behind the English Premier League clubs pairings? It is like every season the priorities changes, or more likely, as you English users point out, as long as there are two EPL clubs playing every night, no big differences. I suppose the pairings were: 1) Spain Real Madrid with Barcelona Atletico Madrid with Real Sociedad 2) England Manchester United with Chelsea/Arsenal  Manchester City with Arsenal/Chelsea 3) Germany Bayern Munchen with Borussia Dortmund (I suppose) / Schalke Bayer Leverkusen with Schalke (I suppose) / Borussia Dortmund 4) Italy AC Milan with Juventus Napoli not paired All the other countries have less than 3 clubs. Cheers! - nemesys |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: greenbay
Date: 30-08-2013, 09:39 | The German pairing was Bayern/Dortmund. As Bayern were drawn to a "red group" before, they didn't put the remaining "red group" possibilites into the bowl as it was Dortmund's turn. |
| Re: Possible pairings in CL 2013-14 GS draw | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 30-08-2013, 10:19 | @greenbay Thanks for confirming. - nemesys |