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Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: Johnzon Date: 08-08-2013, 22:31	I think Bert archived this one too fast. So far so bad, after FC Utrecht, Vitesse carried on even though both were seeded.... PSV is on the wrong side of the draw. It is time for solemn prayer..

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: De_Republiek Date: 09-08-2013, 13:26	Just when you think it cant get any worse, Feyenoord draws the only team they needed to avoid while AZ doesn't have an easy opponent either. If we lose another team we will be in serious trouble on the country ranking list in a few years.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 09-08-2013, 13:35

I predicted it in the original topic. It was going to be another tough year. Sofar it has been even been worse as exopected with Utrecht and Vitesse. Now Feyenoord face elimination, though there was no team in thier group I would say they would have won (easily) from.
Atromitos-AZ will be a tough match. I hop eto see more of the AZ as played vs. Ajax, and not the on vs. Heerenveen. THis is not going to be easy
PSV has sofar been the only team that has surprised me. They are extremely young, and certainly won't make it vs. Milan, but at least they play a GS!. in there it will be over. They will lose vs. the better (motivated) teams and go out.
Ajax remains to be seen. It seems they stay together, that would be nice and gives some hope. With a better draw as the last 2 (Real Madrid(2x), Man. City, Bor. Dortmund, Lyon and Din. Zagreb) they maybe can go for a second round?

I fear we will go for another 5-coefficient this season....

Author: mspm89
Date: 09-08-2013, 14:05
Edited by: mspm89
at: 09-08-2013, 14:07

There's a range of possibilities. Even though Milan isn't what it used to be, one can assume they'll eliminate PSV. So it can go from: Ajax CLGS, Feyenoord, AZ and PSV in ELGS; to Ajax CLGS and only PSV in ELGS. I'd say the 1st scenario is more likely. Outside from the Moscow teams, Zenit and Rubin, you'll hardly remember a Russian team succeeding in Europe; as to Atromitos, they gave my favorite team Newcastle a run for their money a year ago, but the magpies were playing mostly their reserve team for the ELPO. Plus, Greek teams' performance in Europe is as much in crisis as the Netherlands'.

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: bert.kassies Date: 09-08-2013, 14:49	Ricardo is the perfect illustration why the Dutch economy struggles

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: mavano Date: 09-08-2013, 15:19	lol It's fair to say we're going through a rough patch, but the negativity from Ricardo is way over the top...

Author: putje
Date: 09-08-2013, 23:53

The pessimism of Ricardo seems apparently not only to me to strong. I looked into my previsions after a crazy night of EL Q.

In these tables I see 7.5 points for Holland this year. I admit that that is less (2 points) than the average of the past 4 years, but not that bad. These 7.5 points prove to be more than the average of the country's 10-12 close behind the Dutch. It looks like the gap between Holland and the 10th place will stay big enough for at least 3 years.

This table shows my prevision for this year and the difference between the same prevision at the start of the qualifications and the difference with last 4 year. The figures are rounded.

Country 5yr - 13-14 - pre season - last 4yr

Russia 49.75 - 13.2 - +0.7 - +4
Holland 45.9 - 7.5 - +0.5 - -2
Ukraine 45.3 - 12.2 - = - +3.9

Belgium 36.4 - 6.5 - -2.2 - -1
Turkey 35.7 - 8.2 - +1.2 - +1.33
Greece 31.8 - 4.3 - -0.3 - -2.6

Suisse 30.9 - 4.9 - = - -1.6
Austria 28.25 - 5.1 - +0.9 - -0.7
Czechs 25.5 - 4.1 - -2.4 - -1.2
Romania 24.7 - 4.3 - +1.4 - -0.8
Israel 24.5 - 3.4 - -1.4 - -1.9
Cyprus 24 - 3.5 - -0.9 - -1.6

With respect to the pre season figures, Belgium and the Czech made the worst impression. Both countries lost a team that should have made it into spring 2014.
With respect to the recent past, Holland and Greece are those who experience the biggest losses.

On the positive side are Russia and Ukraine. They do not gain that much since the start of the season, but playing with their best teams makes a positif difference with their recent history.

The position of Romania is a little bit special. They had to play with relatively new teams, so expectations pre seasons were low. The beat these expectations, but still misses the average of their recent history.