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Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: Johnzon Date: 10-06-2013, 11:30	This year can be crucial for the Dutch: Ajax in GS-CL with ???? (Real Madrid, PSG and Bayer Leverkusen?) PSV is unseeded in Q4-CL with very strong opponents. Feyenoord, Vitesse and FC Utrecht are unseeded in Q4-EL as well and only struggling AZ-Alkmaar is seeded. PSV may be the only one team for the Dutch in EL!

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 10-06-2013, 12:01	Feyenoord and/or Utrecht can still be seeded in EL Q4. They are just 1 and 2 spots below the line at this moment. A few surprises in the earlier rounds can get them seeded. A lot will also depend on the draws of course. Last year AZ had a terrible draw in EL Q4 with Anzhi.

Author: mavano
Date: 10-06-2013, 13:48
Edited by: mavano
at: 10-06-2013, 14:01

For the moment I consider last year a fluke. And the results the years before would indicate so.

Vitesse needed a bit of luck as an unseeded team. They got it on paper (lowest seed) but not in reality... They'll need it again, cause if they reach the group stage they could challenge for the top 2 spots.

Feyenoord is similar. They should've knocked out Dynamo Kiev based on chances and run of play, but were disappointing in ELQ4. They'll need to find a way to get in the GS. Once there, they can hold their own.

Heerenveen had no business in Europe. Had to sell their best players last summer and got nothing in return.

AZ had a bad year, but would've knocked out most unseeded teams and grabbed some points in the GS. Not Anzhi however... They're the smallest Dutch regular EL team. They can't hold their level year after year. But they look to be a bit better again next year.

PSV didn't care for the EL. They're celebrating their centennial this year and after 4 title-less years they had to win the title. They convinced themselves that European matches would only interfere. They picked their battles to test themselves (Napoli) and just let go of the other matches to be free of EL after the winter break. It didn't work and I get the impression that everybody realizes it was a stupid idea anyway. Especially now that they'll be unseeded in CLQ4... Still, I'd give them a fighting chance against most of the seeded teams.

Twente had a bad year. Not just in the EL. Starting with competitive matches at the end of June didn't help either. They'll be missed from a seeding perspective. Especially compared to Utrecht who they played for the final EL spot.

Ajax needs to catch a break. Seriously... Galatasaray reached the last 8 finishing behind the English #2 and beating a team that only had to finish above the English #3 to win the group. Ajax had to finish above the English #1 to just survive in the EL... Drawing the champions from the top 3 nations, and that as not even a pot 4 team, is just ridiculous. 8 of the last 9 teams they faced in the CL were from the big 5. They held their own with a deserved 3rd place and actually sold themselves short cause on MD1 shaky Dortmund was there for the taking. But that doesn't excuse the clunker in the EL. That was horrible out of pure arrogance...

Utrecht will most likely be like Heerenveen last year and not like the Utrecht from a couple years back that didn't lose in 4 matches against Liverpool and Napoli... Like Heerenveen last year they'll lose most of the players that helped them into Europe.

Draw will by important again next year. Vitesse and Feyenoord look regular Dutch participants for years to come, but you need a bit of help to get the coef going when you start at the bottom. AZ and PSV should contribute again like they always have. Ajax the same. Give them a normal CL group (without Real, thank you) and they'll challenge for a top 2 spot.

And in the great scheme of things there is no make-or-break year anyway. Thanks to last years disaster spot 6 is most likely gone for the foreseeable future. A 10+ season would've kept us very much in the hunt. And the gap to 10 is still huge. If anything, last year has put us back in boring 7-9 limbo. Little to win, little to lose...

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 10-06-2013, 14:21

If anything, last year has put us back in boring 7-9 limbo. Little to win, little to lose...

We have to wait and see what exactly will change in the access list from 2015 onwards. In the UEFA article it said that no country will get more then 3 EL-spots. What does that mean for countries 7-9? Will they lose a European spot or will some of them get an extra CL-spot?

If 7-9 will just get as many spots as 10-15, then there isn't much to battle for any more in the coefficient ranking once 6th place is out of reach.

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: mavano Date: 10-06-2013, 14:47	True. Although 1 less team could actually make it easier to challenge for spot 5/6. That 4th EL spot is as much a blessing as a coef-ranking curse. And guaranteed GS spots will help as well. We can only hope UEFA will offset some the changes from the past years that widened the gap between 5/6 to 7/8/9 to ridiculous proportions. But I'm not holding my breath tbh...

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: Lorric Date: 10-06-2013, 16:05	So PSV threw the Europa under the bus, did they? All theywould have needed is 6pts to get seeded. Of course, they could get lucky if Lyon or Zenit lose in Q3. Provided they win in Q3 as well of course. But I wouldn't hold out much hope, I think it is likely the seeded sides will sweep the unseeded ones. Maybe PAOK can spring a surprise.

Author: De_Republiek
Date: 10-06-2013, 19:03

As others have said I think Ajax and PSV will be able to score decent points and under normal circumstances should make it past winter break (february) in Europe.

Feyenoord, even if unseeded will have a chance against most seeded teams in EL Q4 in my opinion, and with some luck they could become seeded on their own. If that happens, they should be favorite to make it to the Groupstages.

AZ used to be a solid point scorer but failed last season and had a very difficult domestic season as well. The national cup saved their season. Even so, they should be a little better next season as they already have 3 new signings on much needed positions. If they avoid teams like Anzhi, they should be favorite for the Groupstages as well.

FC Utrecht will only have a very small chance to make it, provided they become seeded in EL Q4 with some luck and even then they wouldn't be favorite against most unseeded teams...provided they even make it past EL Q3 in the first place. It is indeed a shame Utrecht qualified instead of Twente, as the Utrecht of next season will probably have lost their entire squad.

Vitesse will need to make sure they have their new signings earlier then previous years (on 31th of august) this season or their european season will be over quickly again. A stronger side than Utrecht, but will definitely be unseeded in ELQ4, and with some bad luck even in EL Q3 if UEFA decides to expell some other teams. Vitesse will therefore have a minor chance to make it to the Groupstages.

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: quexho Date: 11-07-2013, 09:34	Overall, I think they don't stand a chance against the big clubs in Europe. The quality of football in Holland is too low to make something happen in the Champions League in my opinion.

Author: AnelZ
Date: 11-07-2013, 09:52

"The quality of football in Netherlands is too low" - what an understatement... The may not be able to cope with the biggest clubs right now in Europe, but to say that the quality of football is too low in Netherlands is just so wrong. What would you then say for football in countries like Poland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kazakhstan? Football isn't just played in the "big" leagues and the "big" clubs aren't the only one who exist and are worthy to follow.

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: mspm89 Date: 11-07-2013, 23:00	If Ajax finish 3rd; PSV, AZ and Feijenoord manage to qualify to EL last 32 (just to propose a scenario); this would be quite an improvement from last year. If Vitesse/Utrecht could at least reach the GS in addition, even better.

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: SirHenri Date: 12-07-2013, 10:20	I expect a descent 9-point-season from the Netherlands, I'm pretty sure this terrible last season won't be repeated in any way. A little luck in the draws might be good, but it can't get worse (remember double-Anzhi). First known match should be rather easy : Utrecht - Differdange.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 12-07-2013, 13:00

Top Clubs in Holland losing valuable players this summer. Ajax lost another defender and maybe Erikson. They got Bojan Krkic, which is a good player. Maybe they can reach same level as last year. With this year a little easier draw as last year, they stll are not favorit to reach second round CL. EL last 32 is possible.
PSV loses almost all valuable palyers. Maher is good new player, but won't be able to do this alone. I hope they will reach EL groupstage, but don't expect them to pass till after winter
Feyenoord is not that great, I don't think they'll pass groupstage
AZ is not a good team and losing their 2 only valuable players (Maher + Altidore) so I dont think they can accomplish something
Vitesse is the rich club that should be able to do something, but they too lost 2 valuable players, van Ginkel and Bony. Last year already could be seen that there is huge difference between with and without Bony. Currnetly I don't have too high hopes
Utrecht is one year great, other year less. As top teams lose valuable players, they buy their replacement at Utrecht. So Utrecht too wil lose. And there is no money to invest. This was a miracle team with a pretty low budget that probably wont replace the sold players.

So I might be too pessimistic, but I fear for another {5 coefficient this season(13/14)

Author: De_Republiek
Date: 25-07-2013, 23:07

@Ricardo

Our fears concerning Utrecht were accurate. Though to be honest it's not a really big deal Utrecht is already out in Q2, they would never have made it to the groupstages anyway, even if being seeded all the way. Indeed a real shame that Twente didn't qualify instead.

On the brighter side of things, it looks like Feyenoord will be seeded in Q4, thats actually much more worth than a weak Utrecht in Q3.

In my opinion the succes of a european cup season (for countries like Netherlands) is decided in EL Q4. Once there in the groupstages, our teams usually do well (except last season of course).

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: mspm89 Date: 25-07-2013, 23:55 Edited by: mspm89 at: 26-07-2013, 00:13	I know Luxembourger teams are not exactly bottom of the barrel these days, but it's equally disappointing. Any team that finished top half of the table in Eredivisie should be expected to prevail no matter what. My guess is that they'll be a laughingstock for a while in Netherlands.

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: paul7 Date: 26-07-2013, 07:13	Forza,i can' find Utrecht in the Berts lists,looking for them for 2 hours and still can't find them.do you know they will be seeded in play off round ?? Ps.sorry a bit for trolling.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 26-07-2013, 10:00

@De Republiek
Yes, first pessimistic step is taken. Next week we'll see how it will go in Q3. Sofar match reports of PSV seem to be above my expectation. But there are a lot of youngsters and they are by definition going up and down. Zulte will be underetimated for sure, read the topics on this site. But according to bookmakers Belgium has more chance on the WorldTitle as Holland, they are not to be underestimated....

Re: Make or break for the Netherlands?
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 26-07-2013, 10:45	And Vitesse also won't have an easy match in Q3 I think. Vitesse are not in good shape I think and Petrolul isn't an easy draw. Hope Vitesse can progress still, since we can't afford to lose 2 clubs before ELQ4.

Author: putje
Date: 31-07-2013, 22:01

And from who has those treat to come? I'm affraid we saw yesterday that the gap (at least on the field) between Holland and Belgium won't be closed in the near future.

OK, Zulte was probably our weakest link, but even then.

The gap between you and us is at the moment more or less 8 points.
My rankings based previsions 'predict' more than 8.5 points this season for Belgium, but I consider that as far to optimistic. 3 teams in Europe after the winter break, doesn't looks very realistic to me. Hollands stand on 7.5 in my calculations.

Perhaps that in the new entry scheme there will be a difference between 7 and 9 position. And if that is the case, you could be the first candidate for place 9.
But falling out of the top 9? No way in my opinion.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 06-08-2013, 15:24

We saw last weekend that for one half PSV played great, but still got 2 goals scored against them, so I wouldnt be surprised if Zulte would do that too, but things look good for PSV for Q3, but I don's see them winning against any seeded team in Q4. EL-GS could go anyway. I have more hope about PSV noa then a week ago. Vitesse has not reached their good performance of last year and have still 3 matches to go, they wont be seeded might they reach Q4, they could meet the Spurs or Sevilla and be out. With at least half of the seeded teams I wouldn't consider them favorites.
Feyenoord showed that Koeman is good for 1-2 years and then its over? I have seen this before, getting titles in the first 1-2 years and then its up, it was like that with Ajax, PSV, Benfica(?). Current Feyenoord must be lucky to be seeded, and then still are the lesser of a lot of teams. I hope they shape up!
Ajax seems to hold on to more players as I expected. Still some weeks to go, but it doesn't seem to bad. and with Bojan they have gained, I think.
AZ is a bit unknown to me, I expect them to be less without Maher and Altidore, they were pretty ok in teh first league match, but for European matches I think they won't succeed.

So with some bad luck there will be just Ajax and PSV in the GS, that I count as a terrible performance for Holland, a second one in a row.
That might be pessimistic, but i'm not realy hopefull, sorry (thouhj a little more optimistic since a week, after the downfall of Utrecht, I didnt expect them to reacht the GS, but still..... Luxmeburg...

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 06-08-2013, 16:59

@Ricardo

they were pretty ok in teh first league match,

I think you are confused with the Supercup match. That was OK from AZ, while the 1st league match was terrible.

A lot will depend on the draw AZ gets in Q4. I don't think there are teams stronger then Anzhi who we got last year, but still a lot of other teams wouldn't be easy to beat for AZ. Allthough there are also a lot of teams in which AZ should be the favorite.
And if we reach the GS a lot will depend on the draw again. AZ will be in Pot 2 most likely, but a lot of teams in Pots 3 and 4 will be (much) stronger. With a lucky draw there AZ might have a shot at 2nd place, but with a normal draw it would not be easy to get past the group stage.