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Changing of the guard?
Author: mjohnson1989 Date: 01-05-2013, 22:54	It's a question I've seen asked on Twitter a lot over the past week- are we now seeing the age of German domination? This is Bayern Munich's third final in four years and they totally outclassed Barcelona over two legs. Not only that, but Borussia Dortmund look like they could be a force for the next few years if they can keep most of their squad together

Re: Changing of the guard?
Author: Lorric Date: 01-05-2013, 23:08	A little early for that. Remember this? http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2013/mar/13/bayern-munich-champions-league-m atch-report If the Germans tear through the CL again next year then it's time to sit up and take notice.

Re: Changing of the guard?
Author: Zarastro Date: 02-05-2013, 01:22	I agree with Lorric, I believe the only conclusion of this years CL campaign is that the Bundesliga is finally back as one of Europes top leagues.

Re: Changing of the guard?
Author: spoonman Date: 02-05-2013, 01:49	Yes, I second that. The Bundesliga is Top 3, nothing more, nothing less. Time will tell if this season has been a one-off thing. At least we (the Bundesliga) have finally got a CL title again after 2001. But what's more important to me is that we (Bayern) finally win it again.

Author: Lorric
Date: 02-05-2013, 01:57
Edited by: Lorric
at: 02-05-2013, 01:58

It is interesting to note that Germany for the second season in the five year ranking will be number one. England has two number one seasons also, while Spain has one, but it's a massive one. That was last season when it was looking like Spain was set to dominate, getting 20.857pts, and look what has happened!

Next year is going to be interesting between England and Germany, even though it means nothing in terms of allocation of places. England will start with a very small lead over Germany.

I wonder what odds you could have got on Bayern beating Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate...

Re: Changing of the guard?
Author: rote.adler Date: 02-05-2013, 02:43	It will not be an age of German domination, but it certainly means that Germany left Italy behind for several years. And now there are 3 racing to the top, while not long ago it seems to be a fight between 2 with a close observer. And Lorric, England has no real first place in the last five years...

Re: Changing of the guard?
Author: Lorric Date: 02-05-2013, 03:28	What does that mean, no real first place in the last 5 years? I'm talking about the one season coefficient. I don't know how you could say no real first place, we've been number one until recently in the ranking, and Chelsea won the CL last year. And recently in the club ranking, Manchester United were the top seed. Under what conditions can England not have a number 1 in the last 5 years?

Author: duncshine
Date: 02-05-2013, 05:39

Actually it's true England has not been number one in any of the past five seasons...

2008/9. Ukraine top 16.625 (England 15.000)
2009/10. Germany top 18.083 (England 17.928)
2010/11. Portugal top 18.800 (England 18.357)
2011/12. Spain top 20.857 (England 15.250)
2012/13. Germany will be top after CL Final. England about 2 points behind

If you go back to 2007/8, then we (England) were top, but not since then...

Re: Changing of the guard?
Author: SirHenri Date: 02-05-2013, 12:44	I think Germany somewhat equalized or drew level with England and Spain. Not more and not less. I wouldn't go so far calling Germany the new Number 1 just because of some matches and an all german final. If this happens again next season, we can talk again, but for now we just joined the Top 3 "for real". At least one title was necessary for this :-)

Re: Changing of the guard?
Author: mjohnson1989 Date: 02-05-2013, 13:04	I'd agree that you can't conclusively talk about German dominance just yet. Last season was supposed to herald a 'shift of power' in England but look what's happened there! Similarly Barcelona look well set to reclaim La Liga after Real Madrid got 100 points last season

Author: nemesys
Date: 02-05-2013, 13:10

@rote.adler
It will not be an age of German domination, but it certainly means that Germany left Italy behind for several years. And now there are 3 racing to the top, while not long ago it seems to be a fight between 2 with a close observer.

Sure. Last 5 seasons: Germany about 80, avg 16pts/season. Italy about 65, avg 13pts/season. And in not even a single season Italy was able to battle with Germany in the season ranking.

Considering the better financial situation, and the fact the German clubs are more ready to face Financial FairPlay rules, it is extremely hard to predict Italy (or France, Portugal, Netherlands, Russia, Ukraine,...) having any chance to be an option for the top 3 spots any time soon.

Actually talking about a Top 6 Ranking Wise doesn't even make too much sense IMHO: there is a Top 3, and a group of Countries starting from Italy and ending with Netherlands, which follow. Sure Italy has way better chances to be 4th rather than not, but it is way more likely Italy dropping to 5th or 6th, rather than climbing to 3rd.

Juventus, PSG, Porto, could even win a CL in a perfect season, but Serie A, Ligue 1, and so on, fighting Ranking wise with La Liga, Premier and Bundesliga over a 5 years span ranking IMHO seems really unlikely in the near future.

This for ecomomical reasons, football generation reasons, organization and managment reasons. I think that now, _at least_ up to the 2016 ranking, things are immutable about which countries are going to be the top 3 in the Uefa ranking, and even for the following 2017 and 2018 seasons I doubt we should expect big surprises.

The only news from this season it is actually that Germany could not only be in the leading group ranking wise, as already did with regularity in last seasons, but also dominate at top level the most important trophy, bringing two clubs to the final.

As always just my two cents.

Cheers all!

- nemesys

Re: Changing of the guard?
Author: Lorric Date: 02-05-2013, 17:34 Edited by: Lorric at: 02-05-2013, 17:36	@ rote.adler, duncshine I double checked it as well, before making that post. My eyes! They betrayed me!!!

Author: nemesys
Date: 02-05-2013, 18:14

@Lorric
Well, in the 2008/09 and the 2010/11 England was actually "the best of the three" (Spa, Eng, Ger). So IMHO it was not such a bad stat data the one you pointed out.

I think England strength it is in its consistency and reliability no matter facing a kind of negative season: with ManUtd, ManCity, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Liverpool, IMHO England has a number of clubs on that level no other nation has. So, also in the season where its clubs perform a bit under their standards and a bit under the peak level, with German and Spanish top clubs performing better, there are so many England alternatives in the Uefa competitions generating good points for England that you still have an overall quite high output: no matter what, with 15.714 and one club left, also in this season England will still finish above Italy and of course any other country 5th or below; while in a positive season, England can likely compete to be "the best of the Top 3" for the seasonal ranking.

So it can be interesting somehow to see how the Top 3 ranking can internally evolve, but still, no matter what, for a good bunch of years now it looks to me that we won't have any pathos about which countries will qualify 3+1 clubs to the CL, with the only likely scenario for the near future being Spa, Eng, and Ger, in whatsoever order, leading the ranking with big gap over all the rest of the countries.

Cheers!

- nemesys

Author: Lorric
Date: 02-05-2013, 19:53

Thanks, Nemesys.

I thought about that myself, but I'd be telling a lie if I tried to say I was only counting the top three. I looked for the other nations putting up the top score and missed it twice. Perhaps I saw what I wanted to see.

But yes, since the battle between the top three nations is what does really matter here with the others cut far, far adrift of them, and is a big part of what the original topic was about, my stats would work as a straight comparison between the top three, but not including everyone.