|
|
This forum is read-only now. Please use Forum 2 for new posts
| xml |
No replies possible in the archive |
|
Author: amirbachar
Date: 24-03-2013, 22:27
| I've simulated the rest of the qualifying 100K times and here are the results:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.co.il/2013/03/fifa-world-cup-2014-european-qualifyi
ng.html |
|
Author: bugylibicska
Date: 24-03-2013, 23:10
| Super work! I`m very curious now, what if Montenegro wins on Tuesday. |
|
Author: Lorric
Date: 25-03-2013, 04:07
| I wonder what criteria you used. It's interesting you rated Ukraine and Poland to have better chances than Montenegro. It's close, Ukraine and Poland basically have 11pts like England as neither has played San Marino. |
|
Author: bugylibicska
Date: 25-03-2013, 04:50
Edited by: bugylibicska
at: 25-03-2013, 05:03 | I`ve played around with these numbers a bit, very interesting.
Here`re some thoughts: (of course the numbers following the country`s name mean the chances for 1st and 2nd place in their group)
Group 1:
Croatia 54% (45%), Belgium 46% (53%)
I think it`s fair, Croatia plays at home against Belgium.
Group 2:
Italy 70%(20%), Denmark 14%(34%), Czech R. 12%(30%), Bulgaria 3%(15%)
I`d think Italy`s chances are higher for winning, but no argument.
Group 3:
Germany 91% (8%), Sweden 8% (65%), Ireland 1% (24%), Austria 0% (3%)
I concede, Sweden`s chances are practically over, but I wonder, before their game against Ireland how high their chances were rated.
(Could you tell, please.)
Group 4:
Netherlands 91%(8%), Romania 7%(50%), Turkey 2%(24%), Hungary 1%(17%)
That`s how I think, too.
Group 5:
Switzerland 87%(10%),Norway 7%(44%),Iceland 3%(25%),Albania 3%(20%)
I agree, Switzerland practically are there, very interesting that Norway have more chances than Iceland & Albania (together).
Group 6:
Russia 95% (5%), Portugal 5% (84%), Israel 0% (11%)
Yes, Portugal lost their slim chance with the draw in Israel.
Group 7:
Bosnia 71% (28%), Greece 29% (70%), Slovakia 0% (2%)
Yes, that`s how I think, too.
Group 8:
England 78%(16%),Ukraine 11%(39%), Poland 7%(25%), Montenegro 5%(20%)
Well, I`ve a beef with this. If I see these numbers after an English victory over Montenegro on Tuesday, I`d not argue a bit, but...I accuse your computer of gross bias!!!
Group 9:
Spain 64% (36%), France 36% (62%)
I thought Spain has around 50% chance. |
|
Author: Lorric
Date: 25-03-2013, 05:14
| I would be stunned if Bosnia don't win their group. They can afford to drop 3pts and even if Greece win all their games they'll still win. The other teams in the group are weak, I just can't see Bosnia dropping 4pts to them, and Greece would still have to win all the matches, though they are certainly capable of it. |
|
Author: bugylibicska
Date: 25-03-2013, 06:34
| When you cheer a team (and I cheer for Bosnia) it`s a bit of a different perspective. You`re more worried about everything and every game seems like a potential pitfall. For a neutral, I agree, it all looks done and dusted. (Italy has the same rated chance as Bosnia, but I`m not worried about the Italians and pretty sure they`ll end up first.) Bosnia has to play in Slovakia and the chance to lose points there seems greater, than to win. And then, they still have to play Slovakia at home and in Lithuania and Latvia, knowing, they cannot afford to drop any more points! |
|
Author: amirbachar
Date: 25-03-2013, 10:47
| With Montenegro winning 1:0 tomorrow, their chances would climb to 14.02% (29.04%).
Sweden's chances before this weekend were 16.80% (65.87%) |
|
Author: Lusankya
Date: 25-03-2013, 13:50
| You said you simulated the results 100,000 times. What exactly is responsible for the variation of the results? I saw the formulas for the number of home and away goals, but how can this number change from one simulation to the other? |
|
Author: amirbachar
Date: 25-03-2013, 15:31
Edited by: amirbachar
at: 25-03-2013, 15:32 | Updated with playoffs results:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.co.il/2013/03/fifa-world-cup-2014-european-qualifyi
ng_25.html
@Lusankya
The formula is just for the average number of goal. I then use two independent Poisson random variables to simulate the actual goals for both teams.
See here:
http://clubelo.com/Articleshttp://clubelo.com/Articles/Improvingthepredictionmo
del.html |
|
Author: bugylibicska
Date: 25-03-2013, 15:39
| @amirbachar
Thanks for your response. I think, because Montenegro is a new member, their rating is skewed, unreasonably low and that`s how they even behind of Ukraine and Poland. |
|
Author: amirbachar
Date: 25-03-2013, 17:10
Edited by: amirbachar
at: 25-03-2013, 17:17 | The web query I made to get the results in England's group didn't work properly, so the some matches were missing.
Now it's fixed and Montenegro has about 27% chance of qualifying.
With a win tomorrow, their chances climb to 55.2%.
I should have known the numbers from before doesn't make sense... |
|
Author: bugylibicska
Date: 25-03-2013, 17:18
Edited by: bugylibicska
at: 25-03-2013, 17:22 | I see. Somewhat looks better, but let them decide their own fates on the pitch tomorrow. ``Lies, damned lies and statistics.``
P.S. OK, I`ve just seen your new numbers, quite a difference between 14% and 55%!! No wonder I`ve accused your computer of gross bias! |
|
Author: Lorric
Date: 25-03-2013, 17:38
| So what does that do for England then? |
|
Author: Lorric
Date: 26-03-2013, 23:46
| So, what's the calculation now?
Mini league between the 4 contenders, any of them could win this group, all have played 3 games, Ukraine have been deducted the 2pts they very thankfully dropped against Moldova:
Montenegro - 5pts
England - 3pts
Ukraine - 2pts
Poland - 2pts |
|
|