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Author: pembeci
Date: 16-03-2013, 22:34

(Previous 2012 thread here.)

I updated the tracker with three new data points (R32: EL cup matches only, R16: both CL and EL, b_QF (bonus points for reaching QF).

Rank changes during these rounds:

Czech Republic(+4) passed Israel(-2) at R32 for 17th place and
Romania(+3) passed Israel(-2) at R16 for 18th place (chart).
Switzerland(+3) passed Cyprus(0) at R32 for 13th place (chart).
Russia(+1) passed Netherlands(-2) at R32 for 8th place (chart).
Belarus(-1) passed Poland(-3) at R32 for 20th place (chart).

Rank changes since season start:

 +4 : Czech Republic {21->17}, Sweden {27->23}
 +3 : Switzerland(1) {16->13}, Slovenia {33->30}, Azerbaijan {35->32}
 +2 : Romania {20->18}, Scotland {26->24}, Luxembourg {48->46}
 +1 : France(1) {6->5}, Ukraine {8->7}, Russia(1) {9->8}, Belgium {11->10}, 
      Norway {28->27}, Moldova {36->35}, Montenegro {42->41}, Albania {44->43}, 
      Malta {45->44}, Armenia {51->50}

 0 : Spain(3) {1}, England(3) {2}, Germany(2) {3}, Italy(2) {4}, 
     Turkey(2) {12}, Cyprus {14}, Denmark {15}, Croatia {22}, Hungary {29}, 
     Lithuania {37}, Kazakhstan {38}, Latvia {39}, Iceland {40}, 
     Estonia {49}, San Marino {52}, Andorra {53}
    
-1 : Portugal(1) {5->6}, Greece {10->11}, Belarus {19->20}, Serbia {24->25}, 
     Georgia {30->31}, Finland {32->33}, Macedonia {41->42}, Northern Ireland {46->47}, 
     Wales {47->48}, Faroe Islands {50->51}
-2 : Netherlands {7->9}, Israel {17->19}, Ireland {34->36}, Liechtenstein {43->45}
-3 : Austria {13->16}, Poland {18->21}, Slovakia {23->26}, Bulgaria {25->28}, Bosnia-Herzegovina {31->34}

Author: pembeci
Date: 16-03-2013, 22:52
Edited by: pembeci
at: 16-03-2013, 23:01

R32 performances (as it appears in the tooltip):

Country	    coef     #teams	pts	%pts	coef gained
1.Spain	    85.025   (2)6/7	6/8	%75.00	0.857 --
2.England   79.249   (4)6/7	11/16	%68.75	1.571 ++
3.Germany   75.757   (4)7/7	5/16	%31.25	0.714 --
4.Italy	    61.648   (3)5/6	7/12	%58.33	1.167 ++
5.France    58.000   (2)3/6	4/8	%50.00	0.667
6.Portugal  56.835   (1)2/6	4/4	%100.00	0.667
7.Ukraine   49.591   (3)4/6	3/12	%25.00	0.500 --
8.Russia    44.832   (3)3/6	7/12	%58.33	1.167 ++
9.Netherlan 44.729   (1)1/7	2/4	%50.00	0.286
10.Belgium  34.400   (1)1/5	1/4	%25.00	0.200
11.Greece   34.000   (1)1/5	0/4	%0.00	0.000 --
12.Turkey   31.300   (1)2/5	3/4	%75.00	0.600
13.Switzerl 27.425   (1)1/4	3/4	%75.00	0.750 ++
14.Cyprus   26.833   0/4                        0.000
15.Denmark  25.700   0/5                        0.000
16.Austria  25.375   0/4                        0.000
17.Czech Rp 23.475   (2)2/4	5/8	%62.50	1.250 ++
19.Israel   22.875   0/4	    	        0.000
18.Romania  22.624   (2)2/5	2/8	%25.00	0.400 ++
20.Belarus  20.875   (1)1/4	1/4	%25.00	0.250
21.Poland   20.750   0/4	    	        0.000

++ : local max (did better than up and down opponent)
-- : local min (did worse than up and down opponent)

Author: pembeci
Date: 16-03-2013, 23:00

R16 performances:

Country	        coef	#teams	pts	%pts	coef gained
1.Spain	        86.311	5/7	9/20	%45.00	1.286 --
2.England	80.678	5/7	10/20	%50.00	1.429 ++
3.Germany	76.615	4/7	6/16	%37.50	0.857 --
4.Italy	        63.648	4/6	12/16	%75.00	2.000 ++
5.France	58.500	2/6	3/8	%37.50	0.500 --
6.Portugal	57.835	2/6	6/8	%75.00	1.000 ++
7.Ukraine	49.758	1/6	1/4	%25.00	0.167 --
8.Russia	45.832	3/6	6/12	%50.00	1.000 ++
9.Netherlands	44.729	0/7		        0.000
10.Belgium	34.400	0/5		        0.000
11.Greece	34.000	0/5		        0.000
12.Turkey	32.500	2/5	6/8	%75.00	1.200 ++
13.Switzerland	27.925	1/4	2/4	%50.00	0.500
14.Cyprus	26.833	0/4	 	        0.000
15.Denmark	25.700	0/5		        0.000
16.Austria	25.375	0/4		        0.000
17.Czech Rep.	23.725	1/4	1/4	%25.00	0.250
18.Romania	23.024	1/5	2/4	%50.00	0.400 ++
19.Israel	22.875	0/4		        0.000

Author: pembeci
Date: 16-03-2013, 23:29

QF bonus performances:

Country	        coef	#teams	pts	coef gained
1.Spain	        86.740	3/7	3	0.429
2.England	81.106	3/7	3	0.429
3.Germany	76.900	2/7	2	0.286 --
4.Italy	        63.981	2/6	2	0.333 ++
5.France	58.667	1/6	1	0.167
6.Portugal	58.001	1/6	1	0.167
7.Ukraine	49.758	0/6	0	0.000 --
8.Russia	45.999	1/6	1	0.167 ++
9.Netherlands	44.729	0/7	0	0.000
10.Belgium	34.400	0/5	0	0.000
11.Greece	34.000	0/5	0	0.000
12.Turkey	32.900	2/5	2	0.400 ++
13.Switzerland	28.175	1/4	1	0.250
14.Cyprus	26.833	0/4	0	0.000

Author: pembeci
Date: 17-03-2013, 01:25

Only three possible rank changes until the end of the season remained:

Portugal(1) will pass France(1) if Portugal gets 4 points more.
Turkey(2) will pass Greece(0) if Turkey gets at least 8 points.
Turkey(2) will pass Belgium(0) if Turkey gets at least 10 points

Following table shows max. coef a country can gain at the end of the season. Numbers in paranthesis are max. points that can be collected. Those numbers may need double checking.

                        coef now        coef max.
Spain(29)		86.311		90.454
England(29)		80.678		84.821
Germany(24)		76.615		80.043
Italy(28)		63.648		68.314
France(14)		58.500		60.833
Portugal(14)		57.835		60.168
Ukraine(0)		49.758		49.758
Russia(14)		45.832		48.165
Netherlands(0)		44.729		44.729
Belgium(0)		34.400		34.400
Greece(0)		34.000		34.000
Turkey(28)		32.500		38.100
Switzerland(14)		27.925		31.425