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| battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: Luka
Date: 21-11-2012, 22:26 Edited by: Luka at: 21-11-2012, 22:54 | I thought that we were missing this kind of topic. We had many country-related battles, but interestingly we may also see some interesting battle among top teams to be seeded in Pot A in the next CL edition. In theory you must be among top 7 (if the defending champion is ranked outside of top 7 teams) or 8 teams (if the defending champion is placed somewhere 1-7 in the team ranking). But practice shows, e.g., last season, that even being ranked 12th you can still make it to Pot A, as some top teams may also miss their CL qualification. Places 1-6 looks pretty stable (Arsenal getting 2+5 points tonight opens a solid 8 point gap over 7th Porto). Places from 7 to (somewhere 13-14) look like possible contenders: name of the team, country, points this season, total points, currently playing in 7 FC Porto Por 19.5166 102.000 CL - * = Benfica may get extra 5 points if they qualify to the CL play-off what would keep their illusory chances alive. - All EL teams would play tomorrow, but they can not count on extra bonus point until late spring. Issues to discuss: 1) For now, it looks like Porto and Inter are the favourites for the two remaining spots in the Top 8. Then comes Atletico, and later Valencia with Shakhtar. OL, Milan and Benfica are here just for courtesy, but still have their mathematical chances. 2) It may be too early to call, but it seems that all teams placed 1-6 should secure the qualification through their respective leagues. Any candidate to drop there? Arsenal? 3) how many points would guarantee Pot A seeding? This year it was absolutely low 89.996 (Milan, 12th). If Inter wins tomorrow, we should get to 100 point mark for 8th team. |
| Re: battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: reisanibal
Date: 22-11-2012, 12:56 | I think we can safely eliminate Milan from this group. They'll probably not be playing in CL next season. In addition, Benfica's chance to be in Pot 1 is very slim. Assuming Top6 makes it to CL, my favorite teams for other two places for Pot 1 are Porto, Inter and Atletico. And I think Pot 1 bottom limit would be around 105 points or so. |
| Re: battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: Luka
Date: 23-11-2012, 00:07 Edited by: Luka at: 23-11-2012, 07:21 | Update after MD5 in CL and EL (same format as above):
Practically no significant changes after EL. Inter's 0 points increase Atletico's chances to be in the top8. Points can be gained easier in the EL, but still you need to win the games - see Inter. |
| Re: battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: Judio1999
Date: 23-11-2012, 16:04 | Dont forget there is a possiblity that one of Arsenal and Chelsea will not be in the Champions League which means 9th would get the Top Seeding Pot |
| Re: battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: Luka
Date: 23-11-2012, 20:22 Edited by: Luka at: 23-11-2012, 20:22 | @Judio1999: see point 2 of my first post. |
| Re: battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: Luka
Date: 13-12-2012, 18:56 Edited by: Luka at: 13-12-2012, 18:57 | Report after MD6 in CL and EL:7 FC Porto Por 19.7500 102.233 CL I dropped Milan and Benfica who are definitely out of the game. Shakhtar is also practically out being 7 points behind the 8th spot. Then we have three EL teams who will play one more round (two games) in spring and with theoretically weaker opponents. Meanwhile, Porto and Valencia will be unseeded in the CL draw, but still should get 1-2 points in the next round - so the line in the sand will be somewhere at 102 point mark. |
| Re: battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: Luka
Date: 08-01-2013, 18:59 Edited by: Luka at: 08-01-2013, 19:01 | Following was the draw for the involved sides: FC Porto - Málaga CF (CL) Valencia - Paris Saint-Germain (CL) Internazionale - CFR Cluj (EL) Atlético Madrid - Rubin Kazan (EL) Tottenham Hotspur - Olympique Lyon (EL) Shakhtar Donetsk - Borussia Dortmund (CL) All CL participants are unseeded playing the second-leg away, but their games seems to be fairly balanced. Porto may have the easiest opponnent out of all three, which would help them to secure Pot A spot. In EL it should be walk in the park for Inter - helping them to overtake Valencia. Atletico should qualify too, which would leave them in the game. Hard draw for Lyon, possibly writes their chances off. So seem the chances of Shakhtar. |
| Re: battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 21-01-2013, 10:11 | Nice work.  Extending it to Pot B too would become even more interesting: IMHO the biggest gap draw-wise is between the last of Pot B (who will face clubs from Pots A, C, and D, which is two weaker and one stronger) and the first of Pot C (who will face clubs from Pots A, B, and D, which is two stronger and one weaker). Rk = Ranking Please point out any possible error. Thank you. Cheers!  - nemesys |
| Re: battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: Lorric
Date: 21-01-2013, 10:55 | It should be noted Inter are slipping away in Serie a, 4pts off 3rd having dropped significant points in their last few games. |
| Re: battle for Pot A in CL | |
| Author: Lorric
Date: 21-01-2013, 11:45 Edited by: Lorric at: 21-01-2013, 11:54 | Here is what the CL would/could look like if the leagues stopped today. It will be interesting to see how this changes at the end of the seasons. I checked the top 28 leagues: Pot A Barcelona - 150.833 Bayern - 131.008 Manchester United - 128.535 Real Madrid - 126.833 Chelsea - 120.535 Porto - 102.233 Atletico Madrid - 96.833 Lyon - 94.466 Pot B Shakhtar Donetsk - 93.818 Benfica - 86.233 Marseille - 78.466 *3 CSKA Moscow - 77.233 Manchester City - 69.535 PSG - 65.466 Juventus - 65.096 PSV Eindhoven - 64.888 *3 Pot C Braga - 62.233 *4 Tottenham - 60.535 *4 Twente - 58.888 Olympiakos - 57.800 Leverkusen - 53.008 Basel - 50.335 *3 Dortmund - 50.008 Galatasaray - 47.640 Pot D Copenhagen - 47.140 Napoli - 46.096 Anderlecht - 44.840 BATE Borisov - 38.125 *2 Celtic - 37.538 *2 Steaua Bucharest - 31.444 *2 Dinamo Zagreb - 25.916 *2 Viktoria Plzen - 23.445 *2 Braga - 62.233 *4 Tottenham - 60.535 *4 Lazio - 32.096 *4 Real Betis - 16.833 *4 Frankfurt - 15.008 *4 Marseille - 78.466 *3 PSV Eindhoven - 64.888 *3 Basel - 50.335 *3 Besiktas - 34.140 *3 PAOK - 28.800 *3 Salzburg - 28.075 *3 Dnipro - 22.818 *3 Anji - 15.733 *3 Nordsjaelland - 12.640 *3 Zulte Waregem - 6.840 *3 Anorthosis - 17.366 *3 Austria Wien - 16.575 *3 Grasshoppers - 6.835 *3 BATE Borisov - 38.125 *2 Celtic - 37.538 *2 Steaua Bucharest - 31.444 *2 Dinamo Zagreb - 25.916 *2 Viktoria Plzen - 23.445 *2 Partizan - 17.425 *2 Legia Warsaw - 13.650 *2 Slovan Bratislava - 8.341 *2 Elfsborg - 8.125 *2 Maccabi Tel Aviv - 8.075 *2 Molde - 7.835 *2 Ludogorets Razgrad - 3.450 *2 EDIT: Go, Tottenham! Pick up points in the Europa League! |