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Author: Bertrand
Date: 16-07-2012, 02:26
Edited by: Bertrand
at: 16-07-2012, 02:34

Which teams do you guys think have a better chance to be a winner from the unseeded teams in QR2 of CL & EL?

My guesses are:

CL:
Molde FK
Shamrock Rovers
Skenderbeu Korce
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Ludogorets Razgrad
Neftchi Baku
Buducnost Podgorica

Link 1
Link2

EL:
St. Johnstone
Skonto Riga
Renova
Zeta
Zimbru Chişinău
Tirana
KuPS Kuopio
Levadia Tallinn
Osijek
Videoton
Metalurgi Rustavi
Inter Baku
Honvéd
Sarajevo
Sligo Rove
Široki Brijegrs
Dila Gori
Olimpija Ljubljana

Link3
Link4

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: paul7 Date: 16-07-2012, 07:18	What about Zimbru your guess is totally wrong.im' Zimbru fan,but i think Young Boys are 5 times better as a team.if we loose 0-3 and let's say 0-1 at home,will be good result for as.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Bertrand Date: 17-07-2012, 21:26 Edited by: Bertrand at: 17-07-2012, 22:30	Some of the wins of the unseeded teams in CL: Dudelange - RB Salzburg 1:0! FK Neftchi - Zestafoni 3:0 Skenderbeu Korce - Debrecen 1:0 Dudelange's result might be the upset of the night. We'll see if Dudelange, Neftchi and Skenderbeu can hold on.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 17-07-2012, 23:19	Looks like the Azerbaijani champions will pull off their third unseeded Q2 victory in four years. Really deserve to be seeded but not really being damaged by the fact that they're not.

Author: Malko
Date: 17-07-2012, 23:33

F91- Red Bull :
okay, here i am...back from the stadium (sold out with 1600 people only).

It's a great evening for us. We do not even think about a qualification, but winning a match where everybody saw us lose, is jhust great. This was the team that threw out Paris SG last year.

Now, i must say that Austria Salzbourg, pardon, Red Bull Sazbourg, disappointed me. This team in no way played like a Ligue1 or Bundesliga1 -team....even : F91 was the better team and had even the 2-0 very close at the end of the game. The 1-0 is completely deserved. Okay, Salzburg could have equalized too on 1 or 2 occasions, but i saw today the best game of a luxemburgish side for very very long. they all played at 100 % and didn't let the austrians play.
Best players? ....all 11 i would say, but especially Da Mota, Joachim, Steinmetz and ...Payal, which was the very best for me.

Now, 1-0 will NOT qualify F91. Red Bull will prbably qualify, cause in a week, it's another match. nevertheless, F91 can be very proud of having beaten a team which was supposed to be so very better.

Now, i claim it again : Yes, F91 of this year could play in a second german Bundesliga.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 17-07-2012, 23:54 Edited by: Lorric at: 17-07-2012, 23:55	Hey Malko, you're aware if you pull this off, you'll be seeded in Q3, right? Get an away goal and they're in real trouble...

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 18-07-2012, 00:00	According to the stats on UEFA.com, Debrecen didn't have even a single shot in the entire match! http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2013/matches/round=2000344/match =2009404/postmatch/report/index.html#skenderbeu+beat+debrecen

Author: Bertrand
Date: 18-07-2012, 00:17
Edited by: Bertrand
at: 18-07-2012, 00:22

@Lorric: Yes, Skenderbeu overpowered Debrecen during all game long and should have been up by 2 or 3 goals. Albanian teams have had good results against Hungarian teams as Tirana has knocked off Zalaegerszegi few years back with a win in Hungary as well as Tirana winning over Ferencvárosi in Hungary while losing a penalty in the same game that would have qualified them. We'll see how the second legs play out.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Todor Date: 19-07-2012, 11:44	Neftchi and Molde are clear favourites now to win as unseeded in CL-Q2. The other two unseeded teams with an advantage after the first leg in the CL are surprizingly Skenderau and Dudelange.

Author: Bertrand
Date: 21-07-2012, 12:23

Some interesting results from the first leg of EL. Many good results for the unseeded teams. 8 unseeded teams hold the advantage after the first round!

Rosenborg - Ordabasy Shymkent 2:2
(Ordabasy has clearly the advantage though it is much lower ranked than Rosenberg)

Milsami Orhei - Aktobe 4:2
(Aktobe has the chance to turn it over but it is a great result for Milsami)

Jyvaskyla JK - Zeta Golubovci 3:2
(these two are the lucky one being both unseeded in the QR1 and now one of the unseeded of the QR1 is definitely going to QR3)

AGF Aarhus - Dila Gori 1:2
(Along with KuPS Kuopio result, these are the best results of the unseeded teams)

AIK Stockholm - Hafnarfjordur 1:1
(Good away result for Hafnarfjordur)

Dacia Chisinau - Elfsborg 1:0
(Elfsborg has shown that knows how to turn around results but Dacia is no easy team to turn it around)

FC Twente Enschede - Inter Turku 1:1
(Good away result for Inter Tuku, as for all Finish teams so far)

Maccabi Netanya - KuPS Kuopio 1:2
(Along with Dila Gori result, these are the best results of the unseeded teams)

Author: Lorric
Date: 21-07-2012, 14:06
Edited by: Lorric
at: 21-07-2012, 14:09

Well JJK are the seeded side in this round so you can't really use them, but I know what you're saying. And they're not lucky, they earned the right to be seeded, but again, I think I know what you mean.

Inter Turku can also earn the right to be seeded if they defeat Twente, as can Ordabasy if they defeat Rosenborg, to become the second side this year to ride a Norweigian team's coefficient into the seeded pot in the next round.

Dacia can do it too if they follow through against Elfsborg.

Also, you missed Vojvodina 1-1 SUDUVA.

and

Slovan Bratislava 1-1 VIDEOTON.

Author: Lorric
Date: 21-07-2012, 14:20
Edited by: Lorric
at: 21-07-2012, 14:20

I guess I should be rooting hard for the fall of Twente and Rosenborg. In Bert's projections, Newcastle sit at the top of Pot 4, a stark contrast to the other two English clubs who are guaranteed pot 1 in the group stage. Of course, they all have to get there, but still, so does everybody else. So the smoother the path of the English clubs, the better. At least for me. But hey, if your club was in Pot 3 and got Newcastle from pot 4, you'd be pretty pissed, right? And if your club is above, you still would have to deal with a team from pot 3 on top of Newcastle. So join me!

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: bert.kassies Date: 21-07-2012, 14:50	I don't. I root for Twente. My place of birth. But hey, they need to improve a lot on their play!

Author: Talesin
Date: 21-07-2012, 18:13

I disagree with you Loric as JJK was indeed extremly lucky when they got Stabćk. Because the stupid fair play thing forced us to send Stabćk, who had nothing to do in EL really. As they might not even be good enough for norwegian 1 division in their current condition.
Thats the problem with the fair play spot really, that it does not care how good the team is, or wether its in economic disaster after being caught for corruption, aslong as they have played "fair".

Author: Lorric
Date: 21-07-2012, 18:43
Edited by: Lorric
at: 21-07-2012, 18:43

Alright you can have that one I guess. I had a look at the Norweigian League and there they are dead last with 7pts from 15 games. Look certain to go down.

The happy medium would be to exempt the fair play team from contributing to the national coefficient, in the same way as the participants of the Intertoto Cup were not counted, unless they made it into the qualifiers themselves. And that part generally wasn't a problem either, since often the teams that survived the Intertoto Cup qualifying procedure were strong enough to reach the groups.

Just cut out the fair play team from contributing to the national coefficient entirely, whether they go out of the competition in Q1 or take the cup. But grant that club club coefficient points for anything they accomplish.

Fair play certainly should not punish the country engaging in it. I'm sure such a minor change could be brought about if the right people petitioned for it.

Author: Bertrand
Date: 21-07-2012, 20:11

@Lorric: Yes, I missed Videoton and Suduva but, because they are close in coefficient, it didn't record as outstanding result for the unseeded but, yes, they hold the advantage after the 1st leg over the seeded teams.

There are other unseeded teams that, I think, should be watched as I believe they can still do damage in the second leg to the seeded teams like Lokomotiv Plovdidv, Tirana, Zalgiris, Mura 05, Inter Baku, Honved, Sarajevo, L. Metalurgs, Shakhtyor, Siroki Brijeg & Olimpija. I'm rooting for all the underdogs

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 21-07-2012, 20:38 Edited by: Lorric at: 21-07-2012, 20:38	Don't root for Siroki Brijeg. Nothing against them, but St Patrick's Athletic's coefficient is an underdog story in itself. A story I want to continue, to see if they can take some more scalps when they become unseeded in Q3.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: murfhom4 Date: 21-07-2012, 21:48	can anyone explain me how the rankings in the qualfications go either in the CL and the EL ? for example if kiriat shmona qualify to the third CL round they will be ranked in the third CL round despite they have realitively low ranking points ? why is that ? thank you very much anyway

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 21-07-2012, 22:02	The draw for the third round was done with the second round not settled. Zilina's coefficient is high enough to be seeded in the third round. So they will take Zilina's place if they beat Zilina, thus they temporarily take Zilina's coefficient. After the third round, it goes back to it's original coefficient.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: scapulaire24 Date: 21-07-2012, 22:07 Edited by: scapulaire24 at: 21-07-2012, 22:08	deleted. duplicate

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: murfhom4 Date: 21-07-2012, 22:08	is it fair quite strange decision by uefa anyway is it the same in EL ? and what about the " regions " ? is it still exists ? thank you very much anyway

Author: Bertrand
Date: 21-07-2012, 22:39
Edited by: Bertrand
at: 21-07-2012, 23:11

@murfhom4: This is done to save time. UEFA holds the draw before all the result of a certain round are known, and this happens only in the qualifying rounds (others, correct me if I'm wrong) and so before the winners are known so it makes it impossible to have a re-ordering of the teams with the coefficients of the actual winning teams of the previous round. This is also a win situation for the unseeded teams.

First, the unseeded team (team A) that knocks out a seeded team (team B) that has a coefficient that is high enough that seeds it in the next round as well, it has now the chance, because it deserved it by knocking out a seeded team, to play a truly unseeded team (team A) in the next round, so it gives more chances to qualify. However team A's coefficient will go back to its own in the next round, if it qualifies, (as now it is known that A, not B is already the winner) or when the draw for a certain round is made after all the results of the previous round are known.

Secondly, it is beneficial for the other unseeded teams as well because they have a chance to play a truly unseeded team, probably even with a lower coefficient than themselves, albeit one that knocked out a very highly seeded team (team B) in the previous round.

It doesn't really affect much the other seeded teams which now, in the negative side, get to play against one team (say team C) that it should really have been seeded if there was a re-ordering of the teams but that is so inconsequential for them because team C, if re-ordered, would sit at the bottom of the seeded table anyway, so it's not that they are playing against a very strong team anyway.

The only team that is truly negatively affected is team C which, instead of being seeded is now unseeded. I think the merits of team A, the slight advantage all the unseeded teams get (see Zeta and JJJ in EL) and the saving costs of doing the draw as early as possible overtake the disadvantage team C has.

The same thing that happens with CL, it happens in EL. In regards to the regions in EL, which I believe holds for the CL as well, you have a thorough discussion in this thread.

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 22-07-2012, 11:12

People say here that unseeded teams temporarily take their opponents coefficient if they beat them in Q1 or Q2. That is not true.

Teams never take another teams coefficient. The seeded teams coefficient is used for the draw (since UEFA at that time assumes the seeded teams will progress), and a unseeded team that beats a seeded team just takes their place in the next round since the draw for that round was already made.

Author: Bertrand
Date: 22-07-2012, 13:00
Edited by: Bertrand
at: 22-07-2012, 13:13

I think what Lorric meant was, the unseeded team 'effectively' takes the coefficient of the seeded team for that next round only, because practically it does - otherwise, that winning unseeded team may have never been able to play an unseeded team in the next round if a re-ordering of teams based on the coefficient was made (unless it was the highest unseeded team in the next round), which is a choice UEFA has but it doesn't make for reasons I've explained above. This is just not a theory but an actual team (team C) (or teams for that matter) that is truly affected by not re-ordering of all of the winning teams after a round is over and before the draw for the next round is held, hence the use of the words or alike such as the "unseeded team takes effectively the coefficient of the seeded team it knocks out for that round only" is proper, in my opinion.

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 22-07-2012, 16:33

You are correct there, but I think it is better to not say that a team takes over the coefficient of the team it has beaten, because that might give confusion, as some people might think they will keep that coefficient.

So I keep saying teams never take over another teams coefficient, but the coefficient of the higher ranked teams is used in draws when the previous round has not been completed yet. This way there can't be any confusion about later rounds.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 22-07-2012, 17:49	I was specified that it's only a one time deal and will revert back in the next round if they win again. But I can see where you're coming from.

Author: Malko
Date: 24-07-2012, 11:46
Edited by: Malko
at: 24-07-2012, 12:16

So if Dudelange will qualify tonite, they won't get a better coefficient, but are "seeded", cause Salzburg was "seeded" and Dudelange will play the unseeded team of Maribor in the third round....
Now it's all but done
So, there we are. F91 plays tonte at red Bull Salzburg arena.
The game is covered by ORF1 in Austria and den2.RTL in Luxembourg, and there is a official rtl-livestrem on (so stable!)

http://sport.rtl.lu/football/goal/
(maybe you need to click on the event, maybe its directly on that page).

F91 leads 1-0 and needs a very good day to qualify. we are 90 minutes (ore more) from it. I would sign for a 2-1 defeat!
All can happen in this game.
F91 can qualify, but also can get a 3-0 package. we will see tonite.

kick-off is on 6 PM Paris time.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: paul7 Date: 24-07-2012, 13:40	I promiss if Dudelange qualify today i will not be drinking any more redbull.forza Dudelange.all europe want you to go throw.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: paul7 Date: 24-07-2012, 13:43	Info what i receive about tomorrows game Aktobe-Milsami.one player told me,Milsami sold the game for 3 million euro to kazah team.guys you can bet for Aktobe,easy win

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: paul7 Date: 24-07-2012, 13:49	Sorry,thursday game.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 24-07-2012, 13:57	Are you sure? Malko won't shut up if they do

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Malko Date: 24-07-2012, 14:55	Red Bull Salzburg is not in the heart of Sazburg people. You can buy anything but the heart of the people. Sazbourg fans want Austria Salzburg, in BLUE AND WHITE !

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 24-07-2012, 16:24 Edited by: Forza-AZ at: 24-07-2012, 16:29	Austria Salzburg plays in purple, not blue/white. They play at the 3rd level already again after starting from the 7th level in 2006 after RB Salzburg took over the original Austria Salzburg.

Author: Malko
Date: 24-07-2012, 20:08

they did it :
Red Bull Sazburg - F91 Dudelange 4-3

my team played again very well today and showed that it has definitely made in step in european hierarchy.
Now, at least 4 more games are waiting this season in european cups !

A little sad that we lost the game, when we led 3-2, but qualification is most important!

Best players today was again Joachim and Steinmetz, and also benzouien, even if his stupid yellow-red cart could have been fatal. Cause before, salzburg was dead, and we even could have won the game without this stupid action.Now, he derserves that F91 qualifies, and i am glad for him too.

I hope nobody is doubting now that F91 has the shape of a second Bundesliga team in germany this season.

Author: Cloakmaster
Date: 24-07-2012, 20:15

F91 is in my view 4th league in Germany. actually, F91 contracted several players from german 4th league, and F91 gained in strength after that.
Salzburg was way below their standards, by far. - and i am happy about that! Congrats, F91!

It does not really matter wether 2nd, 3rd or 4th league - cup matches have their own rules. And the most important one: Score more goals than your oponent, and you advance to the next round... (ok even if it's 'just' on away goals.)

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 24-07-2012, 20:17	The 5th seed, Red Bull, has fallen. That puts Dinamo Zagreb into a seeded position in Q4 if they survive Razgrad and then whoever wins out of Sheriff and Ulisses. If not, then Cluj will get seeded if they make it.

Author: Malko
Date: 24-07-2012, 20:18
Edited by: Malko
at: 24-07-2012, 20:19

Cloakmaster, let me not agree. i know second Bundesliga (saw 2 matches even this weekend), and F91 would no problem play in this league.
F91 has former Bundesliga1 and Ligue players in this team, and got Steinmetz from Metz (ligue2) this year. Others have played in 1st belgian league, and this one is also better than 2nd Bundesliga even. So at least 5 players have more than Bundesliga2-level.

But, it's like you say, not important today. We have beaten red Bull Salzburg, and thats an enourmous success for a semi-professional team like F91.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: omonia Date: 24-07-2012, 20:28	Congrats to Dudelange. As an Omonia fan I wanted them to win Salzburg since we could't do it twice. Furthermore, now with them out Cyprus seems pretty close to gain that 13th position which would give us 2 teams in CL and maybe even 1 directly to the GS. The battle for the 13th position now is really on!

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 24-07-2012, 20:34	People are going to be confused next season, as Austria, who's champion, who got dumped out in Q2 by the Champions of Luxembourg, one of the few teams to start out in Q1, gets bumped up to Q3, with a second Austrian team joining them on the League path.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 24-07-2012, 20:44 Edited by: Lorric at: 24-07-2012, 20:45	Maribor should be a great test of Dudelange's credentials, since Maribor took Dudelange out of the CL qualifiers in Q2 last year by a 5-1 aggregate. (providing Maribor win of course, but they're 4-1 up vs Zelzejnicar after leg 1.)

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: putje Date: 24-07-2012, 21:09	ryat and Molde we have 3 unseeded teams out of 4 games who qualify to QR3. Long time not seen.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Malko Date: 25-07-2012, 10:25 Edited by: Malko at: 25-07-2012, 10:42	Lorric, i consider Maribor stronger than Salzburg which really disappointed ( exception: le last 15 minutes when F91 played at 10). Now last year, it was a quite different F91-team, this year, they are much better. the link if you want to see the luxembourgish television report of the game: http://sport.rtl.lu/news/aktualiteit/285617.html

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Cloakmaster Date: 25-07-2012, 18:08 Edited by: Cloakmaster at: 25-07-2012, 19:00	Several players of F91 are amateurs. they had to apply for vacaition days from their regular work to travel to Salzburg, and they have to apply for additional spare time fir the journey to maribor. In german 2nd Bundesliga this is impossible, 3rd Liga virtually impossible -> organisaziton level ist 4th league. How the hell will they manage group stage, if they can take Maribor down?

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 25-07-2012, 21:19	You get something like 2 million for reaching the CL playoff round and another million for the Europa groups, right? I'm sure they could compensate the employers for the time off. A more creative solution would be to provide free sponsorship to those employers in the advertisements and programs for the upcoming games if they did, and make them look good for releasing the players.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Cloakmaster Date: 25-07-2012, 21:42	Sure, but sometimes there are employers who just don't accept things like "additional vacation without payment" : They want their employees live at work and no where else. Of course such things would produce some REAL bad press for the employer! F91 has has up to now a minimun payment of 680.000€ from uefa, so they are surely able to pay off..

Author: Todor
Date: 25-07-2012, 23:16

Only 4/17 (23.5%) unseeded teams passed Q2 in the CL, winning 6 and drawing 8 out of 34 matches for 29.4 % of the points. At home they won 5 and drew 6 for 47.1 % of the points, away won just 1 and drew 2 more for 11.8%.

Highest seeded team eliminated is Salzburg, the #3 seed. The other eliminated teams are Zilina #5, Ventspils #11 and the last seed Zestefoni.

The lowest unseeded team to go through is Neftchi, #13 of the unseeded. The other unseeded teams which progressed are Hapoel KS #2, Molde #3, and Dudelange #9. Dudelange took the seeded status of Salzburg in Q3.

The only unseeded team to progress after being behind, after the first leg is Hapoel KS, which won 2:0 against Zilina, after losing the first match 0:1.

Author: Malko
Date: 26-07-2012, 13:27

Cloakmaster, ALL players of F91 are amateurs, thatmean : They have another Job. I agree that some of them earn more money at F91 than on the other Job. I didn't speak about possibility to play in Bundesliga 2, i said : F91 has the footballistic means to defeat Bundesliga2-clubs, that means too: Much Bundesliga2-clubs would not have thrown out Salzburg out of Champiosnleague.

Now, concerning the employers of F91. Some are employees of......members of the leaders of F91. Others of the town of Dudelange. There will be no problem concerning vacancy. There are some others where it will be...

Concerning F91, the budget for a year is about 1 million Euros ( Red Bull is 30 Million).

Concerning Red Bull Salzburg - F91 Dideeleng

1) There is a new austrian facbook-side F91 fans....and they have already more than 6 000 members !!!!!

2) The concurrent of red Bull, another energy drink, called... B pure (ore sth like that), is in transactions with F91 to be a main sponsor, cause they are david and red Bull is Goliath, and David showed again he can beat Goliath.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 26-07-2012, 23:18 Edited by: Lorric at: 26-07-2012, 23:21	Bulgarian clubs have been completely eliminated. All 4 teams lost their very first tie. Although only 2 were seeded.

Author: Todor
Date: 27-07-2012, 07:44

Extremely weak round for the unseeded teams in EL, except for the ones that played Bulgarian clubs. Only 6 out of 40 (15 %)went through. They won 10 and drew 22 matches (26.3% of the points available), of which 7 wins and 13 draws at home (33.8%) and 3 wins and 9 draws away (18.8%). They scored 67 goals (40 at home, 27 away) and conceded 162 (70 at home, 92 away.

The highest seeded team eliminated is Levski #10 seed. The rest are CSKA #13, Slovan #19, Aarhus #27, Maccabi Netanya #29 and JJK #37.
The lowest unseed team that qualified is Dila Gori #38. The rest are KuPS #33, Mura #15, Zeta #13, Fehervar #12 and Saraevo #3.

Saraevo and Mura took over the seeded status of Levski and CSKA respectively.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Lorric Date: 27-07-2012, 12:55	And some of those unseeds only just scraped through. 4 of them went through on away goals. 5 ties were broken by away goals. Others came close though. Two lost on penalties, two lost in extra time. Ordabasy almost had Rosenborg, they'll be kicking themselves for conceding with a man advantage. Several lost by a single goal.

Re: Unseeded Winners CL & EL - QR2
Author: Bertrand Date: 31-07-2012, 13:25 Edited by: Bertrand at: 31-07-2012, 13:37	Great stats, Todor and Lorric! Very much needed!