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1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 16-12-2011, 13:15 Edited by: Malko at: 16-12-2011, 13:51	Olympique Lyonnais - APOEL Nicosie (90-10) Olympique de Marseille - Inter Milan (50-50) Naples - Chelsea (45-55) AC Milan - Arsenal (60-40) FC Bāle - Bayern Munich (40-60) Bayer Leverkusen - FC Barcelone (10-90) CSKA Moscou - Real Madrid (15-85) Lucky Lyon who drew the most easy, but lucky Leverkusen too, who drew the most attractive.....

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: SirHenri Date: 16-12-2011, 15:05 Edited by: SirHenri at: 16-12-2011, 15:06	my numbers : Basel - Bayern 15-85, AC - Arsenal 45-55 the rest I would admit more or less

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 16-12-2011, 18:50	of course, many users must have different opinions of this blances. I would have given Basel complete outsider vs Bayern, if they didnt push out Manchester United.... But anyways, FCB will win :-)

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: nflfan Date: 16-12-2011, 20:09	Olympique Lyonnais - APOEL Nicosie (90-10) FC Bāle - Bayern Munich (40-60) Funny, must be a Frence thing. Most folks with a lesser unadjusted french-centered perspective in life would have OL closer to 60-40 and Bayern closer to 90-10. As early bookie odds prove.

Author: Malko
Date: 17-12-2011, 11:04

nflfan. Lyon and Bayern are very close to each other. On direct confrontations, sometimes the german teams wins, sometimes the french teams. Even if actually bayern, as winning its group, and Lyon, as beeing second in his group, could be considered as a little better (but Bayern didnt have Real in its group, or maybe they wouldn't have finished first either.....)

But if you compare Basel to Nicosia, the Swiss team is really stronger.

So the difference between Lyon and Nicosia is no doubt much bigger than the difference between Bayern and Basel.

Another thing : Bayern and bayern-Fans are well-known to consider their own team much stronger than it really is. They even say it's one of the 3-4 best in Europe...even if Bayern didn't win anything for 11 years now......

Author: SirHenri
Date: 17-12-2011, 11:47
Edited by: SirHenri
at: 17-12-2011, 11:49

If u consider the perfoemance over tha last 5 years of Bayern, you can see them clearly on Place 4 at the Team coefficients

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/trank2012.html

and on Place 3 this year

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/tcoef2012.html

So nothing strange to count them (as I do) to the Top 5 of Europe.
Lyon is in the Top 12 for me, atm on place 9 and 15 in the rankings above.

(Barca, Real, ManU, Chelsea, Bayern)

As we saw two years ago, Bayern was stronger than Lyon in direct confrontation, from there on the squad has improved a bit (in defense) plus a much better fitting coach.

Author: Malko
Date: 17-12-2011, 13:45

Sir Henry, when Lyon lost vs Bayern 2 years ago, lyon was in a very big change, having lost some major players, Juniho first......actually they have regained some regularity....

The UEFA coefficient is not everything....it says that Bayern had better results all over the 5 last years, but doesn't say who is in a better shape right now.....The coefiicient this year of both team is jhust slightly better to Bayern ( 2.15 vs 1.93), and if we consider that bayern didn't have two games vs a team like real madrid (and even if the group was difficult, Man City and napoli are NOT the shapee of Real; with real and ajax, ther Lyon-group was probably stronger as the bayern-group with napoli and ManCity.)

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Overgame Date: 17-12-2011, 14:48	Yes Malko, Lyon is the future CL winner, they'll win every game 27-0, like they did vs Madrid.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 17-12-2011, 18:47	no, Overgame, Lyon will NOT win the CL, Bayern, Basel, Marseille or Leverkusen neither.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: SirHenri Date: 17-12-2011, 22:19	Another thing : Bayern and bayern-Fans are well-known to consider their own team much stronger than it really is. They even say it's one of the 3-4 best in Europe...even if Bayern didn't win anything for 11 years now..... so please let's face it Malko : Which order would you give...let's say the top 20 of Europe and where would Bayern & Lyon be. You have my guess, i wanna hear yours :-)

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 18-12-2011, 10:47	Well, sir Henry, in the ACTUAL top 20 in Europe, i would say Bayern somewhere between 5 and 7, Lyon between 7 and 9.

Author: Malko
Date: 18-12-2011, 10:50

Well, sir Henry, in the ACTUAL top 20 in Europe, i would say Bayern somewhere between 5 and 7, Lyon between 7 and 9.
This doesn't quite agree with the actual team coefficients of UEFA, but i think having played Real (which i consider over Bayern) is an argument which lets this understand. Even if bayern had ManCity and Napoli, those teams were closer to ajax amsterdam than to real. So, Lyon had a more difficult groupp then bayern, so...less points.

Author: JK
Date: 18-12-2011, 11:22

Why is Lyon playing against Real proving anything?

Lyon lost 4:0 and 2:0 against them, so it is not like Lyon showed any kind of strength in those two games. We don't know, how Bayern would have played against Real.

Bayern could of course not meet Real in the GS, because they are a pot 1 team and not a pot 2 team like Lyon. Bayern got simply better results than Lyon in past years. So it is not like Bayern was lucky to avoid Real in the draw. Avoiding other pot 1 teams is the reward for playing good and getting a high coefficient

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 18-12-2011, 15:16 Edited by: Malko at: 18-12-2011, 15:55	JK, i meant, Lyon playing and losing twice vs real means Lyon has less points. bayern, if they would have had to play vs real would probably have 4,5 or 6 points less too..... I didn't say Bayern was Lucky avoiding Real, it jhust explais why Bayern has this year some more points.... But the topic of this is that bayern is NOt one of 3-4 best teams in Europe actually.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: gogu Date: 18-12-2011, 21:00	Why this discussions always became a discussion about who is better: France or Germany? Well, does anyone has opinions about Zenit-Benfica? Clearly, Lyon had the best draw, followed by Zenit and Bayern.

Author: Malko
Date: 18-12-2011, 22:00

gogu, you are right...i just sais how many chances i give to each one....and there were mor for Lyon vs Nicosia as for bayern vs Basel, and this didn't please to some people and they began a France/Germany discussion.
Well, Lyon had a good draw, followed by Bayern and benfica maybe, but Barcelona too. If not "any" draw would be good for Barca after what we have seen this morning......but anyways, some teams would have been tougher than Leverkusen which just lost 3-0 vs Nuernberg at home.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: mulligan Date: 20-12-2011, 16:14	Olympique Lyonnais - APOEL Nicosie (75-25) Olympique de Marseille - Inter Milan (40-60) Naples - Chelsea (45-55) AC Milan - Arsenal (50-50) FC Basel - Bayern Munich (20-80) Bayer Leverkusen - FC Barcelone (10-90) CSKA Moscou - Real Madrid (10-90) and IMO if Lyon-Bayern today: (35-65)

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: ruicosta Date: 21-12-2011, 12:31	Since noone cares about the Zenit vs Benfica leg i'll give my prediction about that one: Zenit (40%) vs Benfica (60%) I think its a very close challange, the only think i came up to give a slight advan tage to Benfica is the Winter break for Russian teams. They will play at home against Benfica 15 days before the russian championship starts.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 21-12-2011, 14:38	mulligan, what means, if Lyon-Bayern now????? they do not play now ! Sure : Zenit-Benfica 40-60

Author: mulligan
Date: 21-12-2011, 15:20
Edited by: mulligan
at: 21-12-2011, 15:22

Malko, should I try to explain it explicitly or will you try to understand it on your own once more? It means, according to the current performances, if two teams played against each other today, I would see the chances as following: Lyon 35 % , Bayern 65 %

The sentence was in 2nd conditional if clause according to English grammar! of Konjuktiv II according to German but sorry I can not tell the French version since I do not know any French

Now back to football..

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 24-12-2011, 15:21	muligan: " I would see the chances as following: Lyon 35 % , Bayern 65 % " well, i would see it right opposite Lyon 60 - Bayern 45...based on ehat I see every weekend on TV

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Lorric Date: 24-12-2011, 19:24	That's 105%.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: nemesys Date: 25-12-2011, 11:17	That's 105%. That's because Lyon - Bayern is a big clash. - nemesys

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 25-12-2011, 16:17	LOL....of course...... 65 -35 for Lyon

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Lorric Date: 25-12-2011, 19:23 Edited by: Lorric at: 25-12-2011, 19:24	Taking 10 from Bayern and giving 5 to Lyon now, eh? Well, I guess the fish has swallowed the bait again...

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Overgame Date: 26-12-2011, 13:12	Of course Lyon would be favourite !!! Bayern was in an easy group while Lyon has the group of death, and Zagreb could win the EL if they were in a decent group !

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: SirHenri Date: 26-12-2011, 13:43	I really hope for a QF Lyon vs. Bayern, too (as Malko does :-D)

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Lorric Date: 26-12-2011, 19:33 Edited by: Lorric at: 26-12-2011, 19:34	@ SirHenri Be careful what you wish for... You are aware of what the main topic of conversation around here will be for the following 6 months or so if Lyon were to win that match, right?

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: SirHenri Date: 27-12-2011, 00:03	I don't fear this scenario, cause it's so unlikely :-) I just want to avoid Real and Barca in the Quarters and Semis for Bayern, so Lyon will be one of the better draws and i'm looking forward to beat them. If not, they earn the shame that Malko will pour out over them :-s

Author: Malko
Date: 27-12-2011, 11:12
Edited by: Malko
at: 27-12-2011, 11:15

Overgame, i really think Lyon had a slightly more difficult group than Bayern.
If we take away Lyon and Bayern, there will be

Manchester City, Napoli, Villareal
Real Madrid, Amsterdam, Zagreb

If we can consider Zagreb much strong than Villareal (i agree), Ajax amsterdam and napoli are for me about the same strenght, and Real madrid is of quite another level than Manchester City. so...advantage Lyon.

Sir Henry, of course i DO NOT hope that. I hope for a Lyon-Basel in the Quarterfinal, even if you are Roght, Bayern would be a better draw for Lyon compared to teams like Real or Barca.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Overgame Date: 27-12-2011, 13:03	Zagreb > Villareal :p What's next ? :p Olympiacos stronger than AC Milan, Trazbonspor and CSKA stronger than Bayern ? :p

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 27-12-2011, 14:50	Overgame, sorry, my error. I wanted to say Zagreb LESS string than villareal (see the "i agree" in brackets"). nevertheless the Lyon group seems slightly stronger than the Bayern group. real makes the difference if Napoli and ajax are same level.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: SirHenri Date: 27-12-2011, 21:36	@ MAlko ahhh, ok, u wish for Basel, of course :-) ok, than I have to hope for APOEL for sure :-) Even I think, that Lyon won't be THAT bad. I saw 4 of Nikosias matches and they weren't THAT strong, just had the luck which is necessary for an underdog.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 04-01-2012, 10:46

Ajax a strong team? come on!!
If Ajax wouldplay in England, it would have to fight for relegation! kind of Stoke City or so.
Lyonn could not win vs.Ajaxand thatproved to me that Lyon is currently a weak team too.
Lyon had the tougher group?
UPfront you could say: 2 clear losses vs. Real and 2 clear wins vs. Zagreb. Only vs. Ajax they could prove they belong the top-16. And they did not.
Man. City and Napoli are at the top in 2 top-5 countries, Bayern had it way tougher. Villarreal is maybe disappointing but absolutely still no Zagreb (I agree). Ajax can never be compared to either M.City or Napoli. Maybe last year or 2 years ago they were less (vs. Utrecht I didn't foud them so impressive), but this year....

Problem still wil be that 1/8 finals are after the winter break, soem teams will haev improved (a lot) and some will fall down. It's hard to predict, especially Zenit, In Russia they are clearly a favorit for the title, and I think they were stronger than Benfica, 1-2 motnhs ago. But in February? Tough
Bayern and Lyon will both face a common problem by the way: underestimation. APOEL and Basel oth will be underestimated. They managed to get this far didn't they? They eliminated ManUtd and Porto. But still.... If they take it seriously it could become an easy win (7-1 or so

)But otherwise, both could get into trouble.

Author: spoonman
Date: 04-01-2012, 13:43
Edited by: spoonman
at: 04-01-2012, 13:46

In Bayern's case, there shouldn't be a problem of underestimating Basel. There are close links between Swiss and German football. Basel's forwards Streller and Frei have played in the Bundesliga. Basel's new manager, Heiko Vogel, coached various youth teams at Bayern for 10 years. And Otmar Hitzfeld, one of Bayern's most successful managers of all time, is now Switzerland's national team coach. All in all, both clubs will be very well informed about each other.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: Malko Date: 04-01-2012, 15:36	"If Ajax wouldplay in England, it would have to fight for relegation! kind of Stoke City or so. " That is as if i would say Ajax would fight for relegation in Ligue 1......The bottom of Ligue1 is as strong as the bottom in England.....

Author: Lorric
Date: 04-01-2012, 15:51

@ Ricardo

I agree that Ajax would be about the level of Stoke City. But not for the reasons you think. Stoke have never been even near to the relegation fight, not even in their debut season, and get stronger every year. They finished 12th their first season with 45pts. 11th the second season with 47th. 13th with 46pts last season, but qualified for Europe by reaching the final of the FA Cup. And this season they're currently in the last 32 of the Europa League, and 8th in the Premier League. They're a very well run and progressive club imo with a very good home support. And if you put Ajax in the EPL, I think they'd mirror this kind of progression, they'd start off comfortable in mid table, then they'd start taking in the extra money you get by being in the EPL and with their fan base and history, and of course not having to sell off their youth prospects, would start getting stronger.

Re: 1/8 CL
Author: mulligan Date: 13-01-2012, 13:41	Potentially, Bayern group was stronger than Lyon group, nevertheless Villarreal did really nothing as unexpected!