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| Predicted rankings | |
| Author: JPV
Date: 26-11-2011, 11:05 Edited by: JPV at: 26-11-2011, 11:06 | As done in another topic, but now for all teams (including some small fixes for Greece & Czech Republic)"done" "to go" TOTAL |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Malko
Date: 26-11-2011, 13:10 | Good analysis, and it shows that Italy is still in the Top3 concerning most teams qualified after group-stage. so sooner or later, they'll get into this position in ranking too. germany cannot hold it for very long, but will be have to struggle with France and Portugal, which agrees more to the general level of the championshsip which is far away from the best in Europe. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Lusankya
Date: 26-11-2011, 14:05 | No, Malko, just no. I don't even know where to begin with. First the analysis doesn't show anything, because the "Points, according to logic" are based on the coefficient and this prediction is probably not better than any random prediction. Second this is the 5th season in row, where Germany outperform Italy and of course France. Germany also outperformed Portugal in 6 of the last 7 seasons. Third even in the CL Germany now outperform Italy, last season they already did, and currently they got more points per team as well. Fourth Germany have an advantage of more than 13 points over Italy! They won't catch them any time soon, if they keep up their poor EL performances (and of course if they keep on being worse than German teams in the CL). I don't even want to speak about France and Portugal, which are more than 17 points behind Germany. Malko you're the dumbest person on these forums, and you're only making the French fans look bad. Luckily you're NOT French, so all the good French posters on this forum, like Lyonnais for example, can dissociate themselves from you. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: AlanK
Date: 26-11-2011, 14:20 | I'm not saying that it won't happen, but how does "logic" (sic) suggest that Manchester U. is going to beat Barça in the CL final? |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Lusankya
Date: 26-11-2011, 14:22 | AlanK, the "logic" is based on the coeffcients. Highest coefficients wins the final, second highest coefficient will be runner-ups, third and fourth highest will be eliminated in semifinals, etc. Of course this "prediction" is as reliable as throwing coins to decide the winners. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Malko
Date: 26-11-2011, 15:48 Edited by: Malko at: 26-11-2011, 16:03 | Lusankya, you say"Fourth Germany have an advantage of more than 13 points over Italy!". And 2 years ago, France was ahead of Germany.Remeber that some month ago, it was a single point which decided all.....so 12 points is a matter of some month sometimes! Especially if Germany loses more points each year than Italy or France. Things can go fast. What i see, and i watch livegames all over Europe, is that the Bundesligagames are generally not so "packend" than games in France or Spain or even Italy. Especially duels of no-name teams (Freiburg, Kaiserslautern, Moenchengladbach )are in germany mostly really annoing, technically far awy from the no-name teams (i say Lorient, Nice, Sochaux....). Well see, Freiburg has players which came from Ligue 2 in France, were not really good players there, and in Bundesliga, are among the best. Just let's talk of Papiss Cissé, but also Jonathan Jager...btw, Metz (then 17th of League 2), has beaten freiburg in germany in a friendly, as they did with Mainz a year ago. Ligue2 teams beating regularly Bundesliga 1- tems, even in friendlies, do not make me revide my opinion)all this to tell you, that an "average" League cannot estblish for long time in Top 3. Fazit : there will always be changes between the top6-Nations....noone can say : i am durably installed now...... |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: AlanK
Date: 26-11-2011, 16:29 | @ Lusankya: So the "logic" is that Man. U. has a higher coefficient at the beginning of the season, so therefore will win the CL? Or is this based on current coefficient--138.807 for Man. U.; 138.351 for Barça??? Indeed, let's flip coins. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 26-11-2011, 17:23 Edited by: nemesys at: 26-11-2011, 17:46 | @Malko Unfortunately for your theory, UEFA Rankings are not based on aesthetics and entertainment (which, by the way, is subjective: I have friends that find Barcelona matches 'boring'), and neither on peak performances in CL: they are based on the average results in UEFA matches obtained by clubs from each federation in the last 5 seasons. You may like it or not, you can think is a fair system or not, you can even propose an alternative way to determine the rankings, but IMO you can't suggest that Bundesliga clubs in those last 5 seasons are not, in average, result wise, performing better than French ones. Just my opinion.  --- @Lusankya Third even in the CL Germany now outperform Italy, last season they already did, and currently they got more points per team as well. Good analysis... however "outperform" in CL* sounds a bit too much IMO! About both, last season and this season. *(Edited just to make sure that it is clear to all that all the following write-up is about CL performances only. The fact that, including also EL and QRs results, Bundesliga clubs average results in UEFA competitions in those last 5 years outperform Serie A clubs results is already well known I guess, and proved by the ranking  ).It is true that last season a Bundesliga club did have a superior peak performance for the first time in many seasons, you might even call that "perform better than Serie A ones also in CL" if you wish to, but not by so much anyways since it was SF(Sch)+1/8(BM) for Bundesliga, while QF(Int)+1/8(Mil)+1/8(Rom) for Serie A; and if it is true that Schalke humiliated Internazionale, it is also true that Internazionale defeated Bayern in 1/8 of final. If it is true that Werder eliminated the Serie A relegated Sampdoria in QRs, it is also true that the same Werder ended up 4th, eliminated even from EL in Spring, in the Internazionale group. And if it is true that 2 Bundesliga club won their group, it is also true that all 3 Serie A clubs qualified for the CLGS finished in the Top half (2nd) on their group and qualified for the next stage. Bottom line: I would call that about "even", however even saying Bundesliga sides did perform better, that is not such an "outperforming". This season Serie A has, once again, a solid chance to qualify 3 clubs to the 1/8 of final of CL, and in the worst case it will be 2 plus 1 in EL all playing in UEFA competitions the next Spring. It is true that AC Milan showed that Barcelona is a superior club compared to them and qualified 2nd, however Internazionale already qualified 1st with a match that still to have played. And Bundesliga has again a solid chance to qualify 2 clubs as 1st in the group, but the destiny of Borussia Dortmund is still unknown, it might be 2nd, but likely 3rd or 4th, in which case Germany loses a club in spring as happened last year with Werder. True that Bundesliga clubs scored more points so far, but true also that Serie A ones will likely score more 5pts bonus for qualifying to CL next phase. Bottom line: once again, I see it as even, and I believe the lack of results in UEFA competitions for Serie A clubs compared to Bundesliga ones it is not to be find here IMO, but rather on the average Serie A clubs performances in EL and QRs. Btw, I believe that a fan-based opinion doesn't make a person dumb. I mean, Malko is just a bit too much a fan to give an objective point of view. Cheers, regards, - nemesys |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Lusankya
Date: 26-11-2011, 18:06 Edited by: Lusankya at: 26-11-2011, 18:16 | Ah, well, "outperform" was probably the wrong word. I just meant to say, that Bundesliga teams got on average more points in CL than Italian teams. And I won't waste another word about Malko after this post, but his behaviour is surely NOT just a "fan-based opinion". There is something wrong with him. He is neither French, nor does he live in Germany. But anything must have happened in his live that he absolutely detest Germany and admires France. What he writes is usually beyond ridiculousness. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 26-11-2011, 18:45 | Sorry all about this last quick off-topic. One last note: it is also true of course that Serie A clubs average performances in CL are a bit decreasing compered to the recent past; while, even more, Bundesliga clubs average performances in CL are getting a bit more solid. So, in the near future, keeping this trend, the only thing Bundesliga clubs need to definitively overtake Serie A ones also in Champions League results, would be reach the SF and Final more consistently, and maybe win the trophy once or twice in that near future. If Bundesliga clubs will be able to, then they might even seriously menace the Spainish ranking position soon. However, in any case, on my books, Germany 3rd spot, with such an advantage on the followers ITA, FRA and POR, looks definitely unlikely to be put in doubt in the near future. Cheers, - nemesys |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Lorric
Date: 26-11-2011, 21:02 Edited by: Lorric at: 26-11-2011, 21:03 | 8 teams for England. I sure hope so! Hopefully not 7 in the Europa League though... |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Overgame
Date: 27-11-2011, 01:30 | We'll see in the next years if Napoli is a sign of a renewal in Italy, or just some "one-shot". |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 27-11-2011, 04:01 | We'll see in the next years if Napoli is a sign of a renewal in Italy, or just some "one-shot". Thanks for condensing the whole issue in a single line!  Hard to answer your question. However... In positive: Napoli last summer refused - an important offer from AC Milan for Hamsik; - an important offer from Internazionale for Lavezzi; - and some important foreign offers for Cavani. Besides, intelligently completed the built of a squad of 22 decent players, bringing in quality players as Inler, and some good bench player as Pandev e Santana. In negative: the Fiorentina project with Prandelli on that CL year just few seasons ago seamed as good as this Napoli one, but then at the first difficulties the club bounced back at mid table; and even the Sampdoria of Cassano-Pazzini who qualified for UCL QRs seemed a club on the rise, except that the next season went from 4th place to relegation. Napoli seems quite solid, and Juventus might be another good alternative for Serie A in UCL in the next seasons, Roma has few quality players as well, and Lazio and Udinese are finishing quite regularly in the "UEFA qualification zone" in Serie A; however, we agree on the fact that Serie A atm still miss a consolidated 3rd power in CL on Inter / Milan level, of course; in the other hand this makes quite amazing the fact that the average Serie A performances in CLGS are good enough to keep on qualifying 2-3 clubs in the Top 16 of Europe every season. We'll see if this will last, of course. Cheers. - nemesys. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: JPV
Date: 27-11-2011, 12:07 | "Good analysis, and it shows that Italy is still in the Top3 concerning most teams qualified after group-stage." Malko, i guess you failed to look any further: - 1 team more doesn't mean (statistically) a lot, especially if you started with 1 team more - Germany is having more points in 3 out of five rounds than Italy, Portugal & France combined. - Germany's teams are not supposed to be failing in 1/16 or 1/8 except for Hannover. 4 out of 5 teams of Italy are supposed to fail in 1/8 or 1/16. "First the analysis doesn't show anything, because the "Points, according to logic" are based on the coefficient and this prediction is probably not better than any random prediction." try to do any random prediction (let's say, make 10 of those) and show me the results afterwards compared to this prediction . Of course it's not perfect, but that's a prediction for. It does however show a good analysis of the "main directions" this year is going to. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: cobbaut
Date: 27-11-2011, 15:06 | @JPV How can Belgium have 32.000 points after group phase, and again 32.000 at end of season ? Since Anderlecht advances one more round in your predictions, they should earn some points right? |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Lorric
Date: 28-11-2011, 00:50 Edited by: Lorric at: 28-11-2011, 00:54 | @ JPV Malko didn't fail to look further. He chose not to. It's what he does. He looks for what he wants to see, and the rest he pretends doesn't exist. Oh and logic is the wrong word for your tables. It's by the coefficients. There will be some matches that the coefficients will say Team A will win, but logic will say Team B will win. And the same for your CL finalists. That could be blown apart in the Last 16 if they draw each other. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Malko
Date: 28-11-2011, 13:42 | Lusankay, i detest nobody and love nobody (concerning Nations). I just see the football games around my neighbors.... I saw Schalke-Dortmund and Marseille-Paris this weekend, and....there was a very big difference not positive for the Bundesliga in what we saw of kind of football. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Overgame
Date: 28-11-2011, 14:08 | And that's probably why France is 6th in the rankings and Germany 4th : french teams are so strong that they give 1 or 2 goals to their opponent, to give them a chance to win. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Malko
Date: 28-11-2011, 15:58 | Well, the last confrontation of the german champion vs the french 3rd last year,...ended 3-0 for the french team. Not a single german champion excepts Bayern ever had a chance vs a french team. See Schalke and Bremen some years ago...... . Last year, Dortmund had no chance in the groupstage, where....Paris ended first. So far bour G vs F....... and now....Moenchengladbach is leading, Dortmund second....... Does this speak for strenght? i do not think so. So thats why i say that in long term, Germany connot hold his ranking. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Overgame
Date: 28-11-2011, 18:12 Edited by: Overgame at: 29-11-2011, 00:29 | And Germany is still ahead of France :p Funny how you like to take, again, a few games, and draw stupid conclusions. Let's talk about Lyon, the best french team in the last 8 years. Schalke was in CL 1/2 last year, after winning a group with .. LYON ! 2 years ago, Bayern ended 2nd after losing twice vs Bordeaux, but won twice against Lyon in CL 1/2 ! 3 years ago, the same Bayern took 4 points out of 6 vs Lyon ! And Germany is nothing without Bayern ? Do you realize that Lyon is "only" 16 points behind Bayern and, 16/6 { 3 ? Do you realize that the difference between France and Germany is around 17 points ? Did you forget my table from a few months ago "France vs Germany in CL" where Germany scored more than France with or without Lyon and Bayern ? Do you want a wonderful stat, dear Malko the Blind ? Germany has, actually, 67.852 points. These points are giving 13.570 points to every single german team. Bayern has 114.570 points, so Bayern scored 101 points. Let's imagine that Germany played with 6 teams for the last 5 years (not really true, they had more than 6, i.e 4 and 5 years ago) and let's assume that Bayern was replaced by a team scoring 0 point : 101/6 = 16.883 points "lost". So, Bayern had added to the german coefficient less than 16.833 points. The current difference between France and Germany is higher than 17 points, so : WITHOUT BAYERN, GERMANY WOULD STILL BE AHEAD OF FRANCE IN THE COUNTRY RANKING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Do you want to know where France would be without Lyon ? 9TH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So, please, could you just stop posting your bullshit ? If you cannot, could you just find another forum full of your clones ? Thank you ! Edit : who is leader in France ? Montpellier ! What a sign of strenght !!!! |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Tirion
Date: 28-11-2011, 22:43 | Not that it matters which team is first in Bundesliga after MD 14, but Gladbach is second. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Lorric
Date: 28-11-2011, 23:02 Edited by: Lorric at: 28-11-2011, 23:07 | @ Overgame You'd think any normal person would have the decency to either acknowledge defeat or slink away with their tail between their legs after being destroyed like that, but I'm sure Malko will be back... The Bayern stat says it all. Particularly impressive when you reduce the contribution to 0 and stay at 6/6 rather than just going 5/5. And the argument about names on top of leagues is pure rubbish too. England's unfancied, unglamorous group of Europa League teams are picking up the slack for England's coefficient from the Champions League contingent, who are merely doing alright as opposed to dominating this year. Doesn't matter what a team's name is, it's what they do. Napoli is the perfect example. You could use APOEL too. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: JPV
Date: 30-11-2011, 20:14 | "Oh and logic is the wrong word for your tables. " you're 100% right. If should have said: 'coefficient-logic' or something. |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: JPV
Date: 22-12-2011, 21:46 | Some stats i tried to get out of my database. I wanted to check if my "according to logic" (yes, it's "according to statistics") have any predictive quality and what might be an improvement. So i took a major sample of games, based on these criteria: - all games played since 1999/2000 in knock-out mode were taken - all group phase games & finals were kicked out, because some of these games might have the "matchday 6-sickness") or can't be called a "normal duel". - I tried to look up automatically what the team ranking was they carried with for seeding purposes: a team in f.e. 2004/05 was matched attributed their team ranking in 2004. matches with teams which didn't have an individual team ranking were left out (i could include them later on if i want to do some more stats). Out of +7000 confrontations, i eventually kept +2000 confrontations. Now i only looked at the team starting the confrontation at home (again: only to simplify my work, i could check all later) I looked at the confrontation and checked if the team playing at home had to face a better ranked team or not. If the home team had a higher ranking, they got 3 points according to my logic, otherwise only 1. Then i checked the actual results: 1 3COLUMS = my prediction ROWS = actual points. Only 25-30% of the duels have exact the same outcome as predicted. Not so good, considering the 20% random chance. Especially a team which is accorded 3 points, have more chances getting 2 or 4 points then 3 points. On the other hand, the chance prediction max 1 point away from reality with this system is +80%. or in terms of qualifying for next round: 1 3 So, my prediction system (well, in fact Ricardo's) proves to be, if considering the simpleness, quite effective: almost 75% of all confrontations are predicted right. Now, what would we could improve? let's check if the difference in team ranking have a big influence. I took the fraction between home team's team ranking and away teams's team ranking (f.i. team A has a team ranking of 10, team B has a team ranking of 40, the fraction is 1/4 (or in decimals 0.25). Then i grouped the fractions: - "group 1": 0-0.25 - "group 2": 0.25-0.50 - "group 3": 0.50-0.66 - "group 4": 0.66-0.75 - "group 5": 0.75-1.25 - "group 6": 1.25-1.50 - "group 7": 1.50-2.00 - "group 8": 2.00-4.00 - "group 9": 4.00-... This was the result: | 1 | 3So, you can clearly see something: groups 1&9 have a clear link: a high difference between rankings can be (as expected) linked to a good outcome of my predictions. But, when checking groups 4-6, the difference is way smaller. Overall, i wouldn't use my 9 groups as an extra thing to predict the outcome. any other proposals (for those who had the time AND interest to read untill the end)? |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: Lyonnais
Date: 22-12-2011, 23:46 | Congratulations for this great work. Have you updated it with the draw of the KO games? |
| Re: Predicted rankings | |
| Author: JPV
Date: 23-12-2011, 18:52 | in short: this is the result of the predictions:01 01 Eng 86,535 in short, wat teams get: Team Cty 1/16 1/8 B QF B SF B F |