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Author: Lorric
Date: 06-11-2011, 20:46
Edited by: Lorric
at: 06-11-2011, 20:58 | This is of course based on the preliminary access list becoming the official one. First of all, the reminder of how it is for this year:
* = if CL Winner qualifies to CLGS
** = if EL Winner qualifies to CL
*** = if both qualify
1st-3rd - CLGS X3, CLQ4, ELQ4 X2, ELQ3
4th-5th - CLGS X2, CLQ4, ELQ4 X2, ELQ3
6th - CLGS X2, CLQ3, ELQ4 X2, ELQ3
7th-9th - CLGS, CLQ3, ELQ4 X2, ELQ3, ELQ2
10th-12th - CLGS, CLQ3, ELQ4 X2, ELQ3
13th* - CLGS, CLQ3, ELQ4 X2, ELQ3
13th-15th - CLQ3 X2, ELQ4, ELQ3, ELQ2
16th*** - CLQ3, ELQ4, ELQ3, ELQ2
16th* - CLQ3, ELQ3 X2, ELQ2
16th-17th** - CLQ2, ELQ4, ELQ3, ELQ2
16th-18th - CLQ2, ELQ3 X2, ELQ2
19th-21st - CLQ2, ELQ3, ELQ2 X2
22nd-27th - CLQ2, ELQ3, ELQ2, ELQ1
28th-29th** - CLQ2, ELQ3, ELQ2, ELQ1
28th-32nd - CLQ2, ELQ2 X2, ELQ1
33rd-34th** - CLQ2, ELQ2 X2, ELQ1
33rd-47th - CLQ2, ELQ2, ELQ1 X2
48th-49th* - CLQ2, ELQ2, ELQ1 X2
48th-51st - CLQ1, ELQ2, ELQ1 X2
52nd-53rd** - CLQ1, ELQ2, ELQ1
52nd-53rd - CLQ1, ELQ1 X2
This time what I've done with the *s is based on MY GUESSWORK. If anyone can confirm these placement changes, that would be good. Here is the proposed access list:
1st-3rd - CLGS X3, CLQ4, ELGS, ELQ4, ELQ3
4th-5th - CLGS X2, CLQ4, ELGS, ELQ4, ELQ3
6th - CLGS X2, CLQ3, ELGS, ELQ4, ELQ3
7th-9th - CLGS, CLQ3, ELQ4 X2, ELQ3, ELQ2
10th-12th - CLGS, CLQ3, ELQ4 X2, ELQ3
13th* - CLGS, CLQ3, ELQ4 X2, ELQ3
13th-15th - CLQ3 X2, ELQ4, ELQ3, ELQ2
16th*** - CLQ3, ELQ4, ELQ3, ELQ2
16th* - CLQ3, ELQ3, ELQ2 X2
16th-17th** - CLQ2, ELQ4, ELQ3, ELQ2
16th-18th - CLQ2, ELQ3, ELQ2 X2
19th-21st - CLQ2, ELQ2 X3
22nd-27th - CLQ2, ELQ2 X2, ELQ1
28th-32nd - CLQ2, ELQ2, ELQ1 X2
33rd-36th** - CLQ2, ELQ2, ELQ1 X2
33rd-47th - CLQ2, ELQ1 X3
48th-49th* - CLQ2, ELQ1 X3
48th-51st - CLQ1, ELQ1 X3
52nd-53rd - CLQ1, ELQ1 X2
If you're 1st-6th, things get better. If you're 7th-15th, nothing changes. If you're 16th and below, things get worse. This is quite neat and tidy when you look at it. The numbers where things change remain the same, and where it gets worse, it's one club moving down to one round earlier, nothing drastic. I'd be surprised if they change this preliminary system, it seems to be the way of moving forward with the fewest changes. Note how associations 16 and 17 now get two clubs each moved up in the event of the EL winner GS spot not being used. This is neat, and fits with them favouring that top group. Now 16 and 17 join 7-15 in being unchanged by the changes. They might go with moving cup winners, but that's my guess. It would also look odd those associations having a team in Q4 and the other two in Q2. I think they might go with cup winners for Q2 though, so I moved 4 associations up.
If my guess is right, this would mean 28th and 29th are no longer potentially valuable, while 35th and 36th would become potentially valuable.
"Hey there Austria, Cyprus. You've done really well lately! But next year we're gonna knock your club in Q3 down to Q2, to join the other two clubs there. How does that sound?"
Scotland vs. Israel this year could be a high stakes clash if my guess is right... |
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Author: Malko
Date: 11-11-2011, 17:23
| So this means....that a Portuguese CL-team had one qualification round more than Marseille. and that's the reason why they have a better coefficient actually. Without that, we would not talk about it? |
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Author: Lorric
Date: 12-11-2011, 13:34
| Bad Malko! Not even on topic, this is about EL changes!
And of course, your reasoning is wrong. |
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Author: Malko
Date: 12-11-2011, 15:38
| Lorric, why wrong. Did the portugiese team not have one QL more? |
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Author: Lorric
Date: 13-11-2011, 00:42
Edited by: Lorric
at: 13-11-2011, 00:44 | You can earn more points from starting in earlier qualifying rounds. But only if you get through. The CLQ3 League path is no joke. It's much better to skip that round if you can. Example Dinamo Moscow (Russia was 6th) losing to Celtic in 2009/2010. France, not Portugal, has the advantage. That same year, Sporting CP only beat Twente on away goals in that round.
You see plenty of seeded sides, even big coefficients, going out in the ELQs as well. Olympiacos for instance in ELQ3 last season. Always best to start as close to the groups as possible. |
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Author: Malko
Date: 13-11-2011, 10:59
| Lorric, no doubt.
But i didn't say this.
So it is true that the 0,002 points Portugal has actually more than France comes from this round...... |
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Author: Lorric
Date: 13-11-2011, 14:55
| But you could say they come from anywhere.
Remember, France has an extra Champions League team (as Russia is still ranked 6th for this season), so started with 8pts to Portugal's 4 anyway. |
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