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| statistics | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 07-10-2011, 07:23 | hi Can someone figure out for europe league.( figure out on results of the last years ) If you get 2 wins in the first 2 matches, what are the chances for getting through the groupsround? If yout get 4 points in the first 2 matches? chances for going through ? remember europe league |
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| Author: Cloakmaster
Date: 07-10-2011, 09:30 | I have an excel sheet for that. I need the points of all 4 teams after matchday 2, and get the statistical probability for every team to finish first, second, trid or fourth. the sheet just considers win-draw-loss and every result gets same chances, so there is a 33% chance for otelul galtai to win over Manchester united, and any result on goals is split up evenly. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 19-10-2011, 18:07 | and nobody can say ? after 2 matchday's with maximum the club has 90 % chance of going trhough ? and nobody can say after 3 matchday's with 7 points the percentage going through ? and so on ? |
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| Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 19-10-2011, 18:54 Edited by: Forza-AZ at: 19-10-2011, 19:16 | It should not be that hard to calculate that yourself by just looking at the results of the past 2 years: 2009-10 2010-11 Just check for each group what teams won the first 2 games and if they qualified for the next round. Teams with 6 points after 2 matchdays: 2009/10: 5 2010/11: 7 All 12 qualified for next round, so 100% Teams with 9 points after 3 matchdays: 2009/10: 3 2010/11: 5 All 8 qualified for next round, so 100% Teams with 7 points after 3 matchdays: 2009/10: 4 2010/11: 4 All 8 qualified for next round, so 100% |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: JPV
Date: 20-10-2011, 08:24 Edited by: JPV at: 20-10-2011, 08:57 | rows: #points colums: round X cell: "teams who qualified"/"teams who didn't qualify" |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 20-10-2011, 10:33 Edited by: kurt at: 20-10-2011, 10:35 | thanks JPV so 9 points after 6 matchdays should be enough for the most teams and with 10 points so far 100 % Did you use the europa league match resuslts ? I find it interesting that with 4 points after 2 matchdays that you have more then 80 % chance going through 14/3 14 yes and 3 No |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: JPV
Date: 20-10-2011, 13:10 | Used only Europe League results |
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| Author: Lorric
Date: 20-10-2011, 13:26 | It is of course possible to qualify with 4pts and to go out with 12pts at the extreme end of things. The 12pt scenario looks very likely to happen in group A of the CONCACAF Champions League this year. We'll find out today. All LA Galaxy have to do is beat 0pt Motagua to set up a 3 way tie on 12pts at the top. Alajuelense will be the luckless team on 12pts to go out if they do. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: Cloakmaster
Date: 20-10-2011, 18:53 | you never answered if you were intersted in that excel sheet wich calculates every possible outcome of the remaining 4 matchdays. (6561 possibilitys) a team can have 4 points and qualify as 2nd placed teasm, another team can have 12 points and land on the trird place. The question for one team having 4 points is not completly sufficient since it depends how many points the other 3 grup members have. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: JPV
Date: 20-10-2011, 20:14 Edited by: JPV at: 20-10-2011, 20:15 | the same, but for CL-group phase sinds 1992. yes = top 2, even if only the group winner qualified no = bottom 2, even if the nr 3 qualifies for EL/UEFA cup |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: Lorric
Date: 21-10-2011, 20:33 | JPV's work shows that no team has done the 12pt or 4pt scenario in those samples, but it's still possible, and it did indeed happen in group A in this year's CONCACAF Champions League. Group D in this year's Europa League has the potential to produce the 4pt scenario. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: SirHenri
Date: 22-10-2011, 01:34 Edited by: SirHenri at: 22-10-2011, 01:36 | Very interesting table, thanks a lot JPV Which Team did the nearly impossible and qualified after just 1 point after 4 Matchdays ? |
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| Author: Overgame
Date: 22-10-2011, 04:39 | That stat is wonderful  Losing the first game is a burden and only 22% are able to qualify, while the winner of the first game qualify in 71% of the cases. Of course, winning at home or away makes a difference, but still But the amazing situation is the stats "4 points after 3 games" : 50% We could talk if the numbers are useless or not, there are 3 situations with 8 points : 2w2d2l and 1w5d0l. The second one is better for obvious reasons |
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| Author: Lorric
Date: 22-10-2011, 16:12 | I too am curious about the team which qualified with 1pt from 4 games. I see no teams qualified with 6pts, so they must have been victorious in their last two games. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: Friesland
Date: 22-10-2011, 17:14 | @ Lorric: Lokomotiv Moscow in the 2002/03 season. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: Lorric
Date: 22-10-2011, 18:29 Edited by: Lorric at: 22-10-2011, 18:30 | Ah, I see. It helped that Barcelona crushed the group, winning all 6 matches. Lokomotiv lost twice to Barcelona and to Galatasaray at home. They got a point against Club Brugge in Belgium on matchday 2. They managed to beat the Turks in Turkey in what looks like a fun 5 minutes, goals in the 70th and 75th minutes sandwiching a 73rd minute Galatasaray goal. They then beat the Belgians at home on the last day. Barcelona - 18 Lokomotiv Moscow - 7 Club Brugge - 5 Galatasaray - 4 |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: Overgame
Date: 22-10-2011, 18:47 | I remember 2002/2003 for Milan winning the CL, Genk playing the CL, AEK getting 6 draws, Bayern ending last of their group and NEwcastle qualifying after the worst start possible (0/9). By the way, some funny facts : The 3 german teams in 2002/2003 were Leverkusen/Dortmund/Bayern Dortmund was in a group with Arsenal and a french team. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: Lorric
Date: 22-10-2011, 19:57 | I too fondly remember Newcastle. I see in JPV's table that they alone succeeded from that position while 45 others failed. Two unique feats in the same season. And I believe AEKs draws are also unique, making it three. |
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| Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 22-10-2011, 20:03 | 6 draws isn't unique. Last year Juventus had 6 draws also. |
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| Author: Lorric
Date: 22-10-2011, 21:38 | I meant in the Champions League. I remember Juventus too. |
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| Author: Ricardo
Date: 01-11-2011, 13:01 | Great statistics!! I would like to find a plce for me to store it somehow. Of course 2 questions for the quiz: 1. Who were the 7 teams that qualified with only 7 points 2. Who were the 6 teams that did not qualify with 10 points. |
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| Author: Lusankya
Date: 01-11-2011, 13:21 | Well, I know Bremen ended 3rd with 10 points in a group with Barca and Chelsea. The problem was that the 4th team lost all 6 games (was it Sofia?) so it was more like 4 points in a group of 3. |
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| Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 01-11-2011, 16:36 | @Ricardo Teams that qualified with 7 points: 1995-96: Legia Warszawa 1999-00: Dynamo Kyiv 2001-02: Liverpool (2nd GS) 2002-03: Lokomotiv Moskva 2002-03: Juventus (2nd GS) 2005-06: Werder Bremen 2005-06: Rangers Teams that didn't qualify with 10 points: 1999-00: Dynamo Kyiv (2nd GS) 2002-03: Borussia Dortmund (2nd GS) 2003-04: PSV 2004-05: Olympiakos Piraeus 2004-05: Dynamo Kyiv 2006-07: Werder Bremen Remarkably Dynamo Kyiv first qualified with 7 points in 1999/00 in the 1st GS and then failed to qualify with 10 points in the 2nd GS. And then failed again with 10 points in 2004/05. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: Lorric
Date: 01-11-2011, 17:31 | Take points from your rivals and drop points to your inferiors, and you have a pretty good chance of moving on with a low score. Very interesting what happened to Dynamo Kiev that year. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: JPV
Date: 02-11-2011, 20:43 | If you combine the 2 tables, you get this "total" result. Y/N 1 2 3 4 5 6 So, based on these statistics, no team has ever: After 6 rounds: - qualified with 6 points or less (4 points is theoretically the mimimum points you need to be able to qualify) - not been qualified with 11 points or more (12 points is theoretically possible) After 5 rounds: - qualified with 3 points or less - not qualified with 10 points or more After 4 rounds: - qualified with 0 points - not qualified with 10 points or more After 3 rounds: - not qualified with 9 points |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 03-11-2011, 23:08 Edited by: kurt at: 03-11-2011, 23:27 | write it down, club brugge will be the first team with 10 points and going out in europe league and the first team with 10 points on matchday 5 and going out they have now 7 points, will winn in maribor, 10 points,lose then to braga and birmingham lose in braga and win home against maribor brugge and birmingham both 10 points but birmingham better head to head |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 30-11-2011, 23:27 | Brugge won, now 10 points, after a miracle from 3-0 to 3-4 bus they will probably out with 10 points, another record |
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| Author: Lorric
Date: 30-11-2011, 23:39 Edited by: Lorric at: 30-11-2011, 23:40 | @ Kurt I hope your prediction is true...  Braga have qualified, but must win if they want to win the group. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 07-12-2011, 22:46 | update please now champions league is over another 10 pointer club that is out, manchester city |
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| Author: panda
Date: 08-12-2011, 10:48 | A key point which is shown very clearly this year: the usual results of these stats- the ones in the middle of the distribution, so to say, rely on the more evenly matched groups. If you get one team that has 0 points, then the group is totally different. 10 points from GS is a lot, but if 3 teams are each getting 6 from 1 team, then 10-6 = 4 points out of 12 is not a lot. So then it's easy to see that a 10-pointer can be out. This means there are 2 types of "group of death" - the 'true' group of death = all 4 are evenly matched (and quite good teams at least) the 'unlucky for one good team and one bad team' type of group of death is 3 evenly matched good + 1 much weaker team. The weak team is going to do badly, as all the other teams need the points; and one good team is by definition going to miss out. Interesting.... |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 16-12-2011, 06:14 Edited by: kurt at: 16-12-2011, 06:53 | 3 teams out in europe league with 10 points,2 english It is hard out with 10 points and then you see clubs with 8 points making next round. |
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| Author: behdai
Date: 16-12-2011, 08:02 | @Kurt: True, it seems hard, OTOH 8 points in a strong group might be really worth more than 10 pts in a weak group, since UEFA coefficient system values every win alike, there is no weighting that makes a win over FC Barcelona different from a win over Dundee United. |
| Re: statistics | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 30-12-2011, 13:14 Edited by: kurt at: 30-12-2011, 13:15 | can anybody do an update and then we can do some conclusions Before this seasons the conclusions were So, based on these statistics, no team has ever: After 6 rounds: - qualified with 6 points or less (4 points is theoretically the mimimum points you need to be able to qualify) - not been qualified with 11 points or more (12 points is theoretically possible) After 5 rounds: - qualified with 3 points or less - not qualified with 10 points or more After 4 rounds: - qualified with 0 points - not qualified with 10 points or more After 3 rounds: - not qualified with 9 points Is it changed now? had a team 10 points after 5 rounds and get out ? then we have a new conclusion |