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Author: amirbachar
Date: 14-05-2011, 00:26
| Assuming PSV or Roma qualify (and things stay the same in other countries), the lowest seeded team will have at least 74 points.
If we rank teams by coefficients in each league and take the position that qualify for the NCQ (for example 4th in England), we get:
Country NCQ
Eng 108.157
Esp 85.408
Por 81.239
Ger 74.887
Fra 67.735
Ita 63.11
Ukr 60.776
Ned 56.025
Rus 51.941
Gre 50.833
Tur 44.51
Bel 32.4
Den 25.61
Rom 22.164
Sui 18.98
That means that the lowest seeded team in that case has less than 68 points. |
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Author: Ricardo
Date: 14-05-2011, 00:57
| Hi Amir,
I agree this is a most interesting qualification round. But what coefficients are you using?
I see Arsenals one (108) still 2 points above Man. City. and Valencia's one, where they are still 5 points above Villarreal.
But also you are using Fiorentina's one.Din. Boekarest, etc. A bit strange
I would say:
England: Arsenal(108) or Man.City(47)
Spain: Valencia(85) or Villarreal(75)
Italy: AS Roma(85) or Udinese(27)
Germany:Bayern(118)
France: Lyon(92) or PSG(51)
Russia: Rubin(32)
Ukraine: Dyn.Kiev(60)
Romania: Timisoara(10)
Portugal:Benfica(81)
Netherlands:PSV(74), Ajax(56) or Twente(41)
Turkey:Fenerbahce(50) or Trabzonspor(12)
Greece: Panathinaikos(57) or AEK(30) or PAOK(17)
Switzerland:Basel(40) or Zurich(19)
Belgium: Anderlecht(42) or Standard(32) or Genk(8)
Denmark: OB(18) or ..
So it could mean Benfica (81) is not seeded!! |
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Author: amirbachar
Date: 14-05-2011, 14:03
| The coefficient points I showed were just for comparation.
I took the 4th from England (not in the table, the 4th team by coefficient, which is Arsenal with 108.157 points), and so on...
Even by doing that, the seeding line was lower than the predicted situation.
That's what I wanted to show. |
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Author: ralfinho
Date: 15-05-2011, 17:51
| I follow the likely teams for NCQ4 for a while now, as I was quite sure that Bayern would grab the 3rd spot in Germany.
For the moment, the seeding line is 60.8 points (Kiev). I expected PSV to qualify that would have lifted the line up to 74 (PSV). However, they didn't manage it today.
But there is another possibility, i.e. that Man City is replaced by Arsenal. At the moment, the Gunners trail 0-2 vs. Villa. In this case, Man City would be in GS, Arsenal in QR4 and seeded, whereas Kiev would be unseeded. From a Bayern point of view not bad, as I prefer (with all due respect) Kiev over Man City as a possible opponent. |
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Author: Ricardo
Date: 16-05-2011, 11:05
Edited by: Ricardo
at: 16-05-2011, 11:05 | I'm afraid that the difference between teh seede and not seeded teams will be great. Except for Man.City/Dyn.Kiev.
Valencia, AS Roma, PSV+Ajax, Panathinaikos and Anderlecht dropped out of te list. |
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Author: greenbay
Date: 24-05-2011, 13:29
| This seeding stuff is somewhat useless anyway. Based on the coefficients some seeded teams will get stronger opponents in the Playoff round than maybe later in Group Stage. I.e. Bayern and Arsenal imho have a higher chance to drop out in the Playoff Round by a somewhat unlucky draw than later not qualifying from Group Stage. And once the Group Stage draw takes place, we will see 7 somewhat "fair" groups but one group contaning the German Champions Borussia Dortmund coming unseeded from Pot 4. So I would not give so much on the coefficients, and the seeded/unseeded stuff. |
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Author: bert.kassies
Date: 24-05-2011, 15:03
| greenbay wrote: "This seeding stuff is somewhat useless anyway. Based on the coefficients some seeded teams will get stronger opponents in the Playoff round than maybe later in Group Stage".
Arsenal having stronger opposition in the playoff round then in the group stage is not caused by the coefficients, but by their performance in the Premier League where they were not able to grab a spot for direct qualification. |
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Author: Ricardo
Date: 24-05-2011, 20:23
| And also Napoli and (maybe) Lille will be in pot 4. I suppose Lille will do their best in CL this year, like they did not in EL last year. And Manchester City in pot 3 might also unbalnce their group. If any group has 2 of these 4 teams in it, it can be called group of death (by me).
So you might say seeding is mainly to keep the top-8 in different groups, the rest is 'random'. Draw is everything. |
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Author: greenbay
Date: 25-05-2011, 16:46
Edited by: greenbay
at: 25-05-2011, 16:54 | @bert:
I tend to disagree. Arsenal or Bayern facing possible stronger opposition in the playoff round than in the group stage is not due to the fact they failed direct qualification. It's only due to the fact, that UEFA since Platini took over, invented the champions path and non-champions path stuff.
Under the old system, it was practically impossible for a Pot 1 team to have a qualifying round opposition that has a better coefficient than two of the later group stage opponents, making it more difficult to qualify for group stage than to qualify from group stage. Nowadays this just a matter of the draw, going this way or that.
But as mentioned before, that is only another flaw in the system. Imagine a group with Barca, Milan, ManCity and Dortmund. That's unlikely, but possible, the way things are now. That's not only a simple "Group of Death", that would be the deadliest, any draw probably ever produced. So what exactly again was the purpose of the seeding list? |
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Author: bert.kassies
Date: 25-05-2011, 18:56
| Some of you say is true. But first you blamed the seeding stuff and coefficients, and now you have "it's only due to the fact that UEFA invented the champions path and non-champions path stuff". That makes it difficult to discuss by arguments. |
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Author: greenbay
Date: 25-05-2011, 21:24
Edited by: greenbay
at: 25-05-2011, 21:28 | It's still the same logics.
Assuming, Lyon finishes 3rd in France, then one of those 5 teams, seeded in Playoff round, will face Kiev, a team with a 60.776 coefficient. Whatever teams finally qualify for Group Stage, all teams from Pot 3 and (obviously) from Pot 4 will have inferior coefficients than Kiev. As I stated in my first post, all this seeding stuff is therefire somewhat useless, as for seeded team facing Kiev, it will be more difficult (based on the coefficients) to advance to Group Stage than later (if successful vs Kiev) to advance to KO Round.
And as I stated in my second post, this is only due to the separation of champions path and non-champions path. If I got this right from a quick glance at your seeding scenarios, under the old format, the best unseeded team in the playoff round would have a record of 39.980 points at best. Therefore a lot of Pot 3 teams and maybe even one Pot 4 team will have better records. Therefore making it more difficult to advance to KO round than just to advance to Group Stage. |
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Author: Ricardo
Date: 26-05-2011, 09:39
| The intention of the non-champions path is that there is a guaranteed number of champions in the Champions League. As the non-champions are from the igher ranked countries, it also means that the number of teams from high-ranked countries is limited. These high ranked countries also produce the high ranked teams. Therefor it's logical that the opposition the non-champions get between eachother is larger than the opposition they get later from the group-3 and 4 teams.
This years CL-Q4 is exactly why I didn't like the changes of Platini. Subtop-2nd have to prove themselves before the season has started, while top-2nd and top-3rd are in GS easily. |
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Author: badgerboy
Date: 26-05-2011, 10:45
| The big winners this year in terms of being seeded to reach the group stages under the new format but not under the old.
1. Napoli (directly qualified)
2. BATE Borisov
3. Maccabi Haifa
4. Dinamo Zagreb
The losers:
1. Dinamo Kiev
2. Panathinaikos
3. Twente Enschede
4. Standard Liege |
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Author: Ricardo
Date: 27-05-2011, 12:15
| exactly!
losers are the sub-top clubs. All of whom have proven in the past that they can upset teams of the big-5 countries!
Top-5 is so not just directly helped (Napoli), but furthermore indirectly helped, by removing the teams that could bring an upset. |
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Author: greenbay
Date: 27-05-2011, 12:37
| ?
Kiev or Pana can now upset Top5 teams even in Playoff round. That was impossible before. |
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