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| La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 22-10-2010, 08:57 | JK already made up a similar overview here (excellent work). But since I feel more confortable with % than with coefficients, and I like to separate CL and EL results to have a deeper analysis on strong and weak sides of each, if this could be useful to someone else, here is my table of performances (in UEFA competitions) of clubs from La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A (for the whole season and week by week). It would be interesting to add also Premiership and Ligue 1 clubs in this analysis, I excluded them just because I'm a bit lazy. And the QR results are also excluded (for the same reason): since all clubs were qualified, I guess it can be said that Bundesliga performed the best in QRs, since while from Bundesliga all possible clubs qualified to CL, from La Liga and Serie A one of the clubs missed the CL and qualified instead for the EL (btw, this brings in CL 3 clubs from each, which is good for comparaisons). Any comment is welcome  (and please correct any possible error).nemesys. FIRST WEEK |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Zhund0r
Date: 22-10-2010, 10:14 | Great work neme, keep it up! I'm a bit surprised of the low percentage regarding Italy's "flagship" Champions League, especially since there are only 3 clubs competing this year. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 22-10-2010, 10:41 Edited by: nemesys at: 23-10-2010, 00:34 | Great work neme, keep it up! Thanks. I'm a bit surprised of the low percentage regarding Italy's "flagship" Champions League, especially since there are only 3 clubs competing this year. Consider that 2 out of 3 played 2 away and 1 home matches(*). And both, Roma and AC Milan already faced the most difficult match (Bayern and Real away). Let's wait 6th matchday to get a clear view on that. ---------------- (*) EDIT: actually this is uncorrect. My bad. Both Roma and Internazionale played 2 matches home, 1 away. AC Milan is the only Serie A club in CL that played once home and twice away. The rest of the sentence is correct, both Roma and Milan played away vs Bayern Munchen and Real Madrid. /EDIT ---------------- But yes, AC Milan and Roma key player in defense and midfield are getting older, and signing up Ibrahimovic, Robinho and Borriello is probably not enough to compensate this. As said in the past "3rd place battle" discussion, I believe that Serie A clubs pay a managment which was not really wise about the lack of interest in growing young local players. Just my personal opinion here. In the other hand Schalke in a very balanced group (with Lyon and Benfica) is managing to have a qualification trend (but playing 2 matches home). So probably this year Bundesliga clubs could even overtake Sere A ones also in CL performances, but I would still bet on Serie A ones at the end of the season. In any case the gap is getting really closer. We'll see. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Tazmania
Date: 22-10-2010, 12:29 Edited by: Tazmania at: 22-10-2010, 12:31 | A helpful comparison. Thank you. What interests me is the number of times Serie A teams struggle against teams from outside the other major leagues. It might indicate Serie A clubs get poor vale for money for the large amounts they invest in players (transfer fees and salaries), so their management might be the problem here. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 22-10-2010, 13:02 | like Juve struggled first vs. Lech and yesterday vs. Salzburg? |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 22-10-2010, 14:19 | A helpful comparison. Thank you. Thanks. It might indicate Serie A clubs get poor vale for money for the large amounts they invest in players (transfer fees and salaries), so their management might be the problem here. Interesting point. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: ssrree
Date: 24-10-2010, 20:13 | I take a look of all countries in CL and EL after 3 match days: CL 1.ENG 9 2 1 20/24 points 2.ESP 6 2 1 14/18 3.GER 5 2 2 12/18 4.UKR 2 0 1 4/6 4.DEN 2 0 1 4/6 4.SCO 1 2 0 4/6 7.ITA 4 2 3 10/18 8.RUS 2 2 2 6/12 9.FRA 4 0 5 8/18 10.NED 1 3 2 5/12 11.POR 2 0 4 4/12 12.ROM 1 0 2 2/6 12.SUI 1 0 2 2/6 14.GRE 0 1 2 1/6 15.SVK 0 0 3 0/6 15.ISR 0 0 3 0/6 15.SER 0 0 3 0/6 EL 1.RUS 6 0 0 12/12 1.POR 6 0 0 12/12 3.BLS 2 1 0 5/6 4.ENG 3 3 0 9/12 5.GER 5 3 1 13/18 6.FRA 3 2 1 8/12 7.TUR 2 0 1 4/6 8.NED 3 4 2 10/18 9.ESP 6 1 5 13/24 10.POL 1 1 1 3/6 10.CZE 1 1 1 3/6 12.ITA 2 7 3 11/24 13.GRE 3 2 4 8/18 14.CRO 2 1 3 5/12 14.SUI 2 1 3 5/12 16.UKR 3 1 5 7/18 17.ROM 0 2 1 2/6 17.NOR 1 0 2 2/6 17.MOL 1 0 2 2/6 20.BEL 1 3 5 5/18 21.AUT 1 1 4 3/12 22.BUL 1 0 5 2/12 23.DEN 0 0 3 0/6 23.HUN 0 0 3 0/6 |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 24-10-2010, 23:16 Edited by: nemesys at: 25-10-2010, 00:07 | I take a look of all countries in CL and EL after 3 match days: Interesting. Well, in this beginning of the season we had few (kind of) surprises in CL groups: - Rangers performing so well in a group with Manchester and Valencia; - Kobenhavn 2nd and many points ahead Panathinaikos and Rubin Kazan; - Shakthar who never qualified for Ko rounds winning in Braga has this year a good opportunity (6 pts and still have to play 2 matches home). And your overview shows that pretty well, ranking those countries up to the 4th place in CL performances. Kind of ironic that Russia and Portugal, who are doing very well in EL, are missing opportunities in CL; while Ukraine and Danmark, who are performing well in CL, doesn't have such positive results in EL. It is also true that Zenit, CSKA and Porto, all in EL, are clubs that usually performs well in Europe. There's a thing I would notice: if you use this overview to compare the quality of top clubs (CL) and middle-high (EL) clubs of each country, I think it could be more correct to use after the / in the EL the max. points if all clubs from that country qualified: I mean, for England in EL, it should be 9/18 intead of 9/12 (a club that qualified for the EL from QRs, did better than a club who didn't, also in the case the first is performing badly in EL). Also because the UEFA country coefficient works that way, and the total % should reflect the coefficient (bonuses and QRs excluded). In any case, interesting work!  nemesys. EDIT: I was thinking something like this... OVERALL...but I fear my performance table works decently only comparing TOP countries performances (  ): including eliminated clubs in the division (/) and excluding QRs results, probably it wouldn't reward in a fair and correct way the results of MIDDLE-LOW ranked countries (which play more QRs). For that purpose it is probably better to just use the UEFA country coefficients.nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: ssrree
Date: 26-10-2010, 09:06 | @nemesys Yes,I use this overview to compare the quality of top clubs(CL) and midlle-high(EL)clubs of each country. I compare only clubs wich play in CL and EL,because its more corect.If I compare all clubs who start in QR from every country,I will get a wrong picture of quality,because some clubs start from first QR,some from second,some from third,some from PO and some in GS,and very much depending about lucky drow.UEFA do it,because they protecting the strongest countries clubs. Like this,all clubs starting in GS and we can see who has the best perfomance.Off course,its easier to make a good perfomance with one team,than with two or more. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Lusankya
Date: 26-10-2010, 10:28 Edited by: Lusankya at: 26-10-2010, 10:32 | Well ssrree I know you don't like the top countries and UEFA etc. but for a fair comparison you still need to include the teams which were eliminated in the qualifying rounds. After all it shouldn't be an advantage that you lost one or more teams before the groupstages. For example you can't say that Russia performed better than Germany in EL, when they lost two teams (one of them was even seeded) in the qualification. Actually St. Petersburg were also eliminated from CL. I think it would be better if we would separate "true" EL teams (which started in EL qualification rounds) and teams which are drop outs from the CL. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 26-10-2010, 14:02 | Like this,all clubs starting in GS and we can see who has the best perfomance.Off course,its easier to make a good perfomance with one team,than with two or more. Exactly. Then, if you like to compare results this way, ok, it still an interesting analysis. But it won't reflect UEFA coefficients at all, since UEFA divides ("/") for the total number of clubs. I think it would be better if we would separate "true" EL teams (which started in EL qualification rounds) and teams which are drop outs from the CL. To be extremely precise, you are right; but using my table of performances just for countries in the TOP5, to cut the edges and make it easier, I consider clubs eliminated in CL QR4, which qualifies for EL GS, as "not good enough to play CL", so as EL, "middle-high", (instead of CL, "top",) clubs. The problem might rise again with clubs 3rd in CL GS. I'll see how to solve that later. Again. I believe that my kind of analysis works decently (and was intended) to compare performances of top countries clubs in different UEFA competitions. You might probably extend it to few more countries, as, for example, Russia, Portugal, Ukraine, Nedherlands, also to check out how much clubs like Porto, Sporting Lisboa, Zenit, CSKA Moskva, Dinamo Kyiv and PSV Eindhoven, cares about having good performances in EL rather than don't miss to qualify for CL in the next season. Instead, to compare all the countries performances, IMO, more than separating CL and EL results, you definitively need to include somehow, besides the % of number of clubs qualified to the main competition, also the QRs results: it would be quite more complicated and and the UEFA coefficient does all that already efficiently! Just my opinion. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: ssrree
Date: 26-10-2010, 16:00 Edited by: ssrree at: 26-10-2010, 16:05 | Lusankya,you are wrong! I realy like top countries,specialy Premiership and Bundesliga,I just dont like UEFAs access list. Lets see who are dominant clubs in CL and EL in first 3 match days: CL ENG-Chelsea 3 0 0,Arsenal 3 0 0,Manchester United 2 1 0 ESP-Real Madrid 3 0 0,Barcelona 2 1 0 GER-Bayern 3 0 0 FRA-Lyon 3 0 0 ITA-Inter 2 1 0 All dominant clubs in CL are from Top 5 leaques! EL RUS-Zenit 3 0 0,CSKA 3 0 0 POR-Porto 3 0 0,Sporting L. 3 0 0 GER-Stuttgart 3 0 0 ENG-Man.City 2 1 0 FRA-PSG 2 1 0 NED-PSV 2 1 0 BLS-BATE 2 1 0 Only one big sorprise is BATE Borisov in EL,and sorprise is that italian clubs are very bad this year in EL. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 26-10-2010, 18:32 | I realy like top countries,specialy Premiership and Bundesliga,I just dont like UEFAs access list. I think the Access list is ok. As a minor change, I would, just my opinion here, qualify to the UEFA competitions QRs about 1 less club for each country, and so reduce the number of QRs played, way too many IMO. If this is what you mean by "don't like", we kind of agree. sorprise is that italian clubs are very bad this year in EL. Uhm... not really a surprise to me. Serie A clubs never excelled in EL in those last years. Actually, as ZhundOr, it surprises me more the 55% in CL than the 45% in EL. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: this_is_football
Date: 04-11-2010, 23:28 | It is a bit shocking for the Spanish League that Getafe and Villarreal would currently fail to qualify out of (relatively) easy groups. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 04-11-2010, 23:50 Edited by: nemesys at: 05-11-2010, 00:16 | FOURTH WEEK After four matchdays, as in the recent past, Bundesliga is performing better in EL, while Premiership, La Liga and Serie A better in CL. This season Bundesliga clubs are overall probably performing even better than the last season, while Serie A clubs are performing quite bad, not beeing able (at least in the first 4 matchdays) to keep up with the top 3 not even in CL performances (where in the recent past Serie A clubs performances were costantly in the top 3), besides the very poor performances in EL (probably even worst than the past), justifing even more the 3rd place overtake by Germany in the 2011 UEFA Ranking. As this_is_football noticed, La Liga clubs are probably performing a little worst than in the recent past, especially in EL. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Tazmania
Date: 05-11-2010, 00:23 | An article I just read about Roma but which has general relevance for Serie A states that: - Roma invests in almost exclusively in foreign players who are not young; - this season Roma shares with Milan the oldest squad in Serie A (average age of squad is 28.8 years). Youngest are Sampdoria (average age 24.7), Palermo (25.4) and Fiorentina (26.9) - last season, after the 2009 summer mercato, Roma reached a record high average squad age (29.25), the highest in its history. The acquisitions of Adriano (28), Simplicio (31), Paolo Castellini (31) and Borriello (28) helped maintain the highest average age with Milan. - younger players Roma produce don't get much of a look-in these days. The number of foreigners at Roma has risen considerably, now standing at 18 ( Lobont, Cicinho, Juan, Mexes, Pizarro, Adriano, Vucinc, Taddei, Antunes, Riise, Baptista, G. Burdisso, J. Sergio, N. Burdisso, Simplicio, Doni, Pena e Menez), a record for Roma. In 2006/2007 their were only 12, in 1996/97 9. In 2000-2001 - the season of Roma's last scudetto - there were 12 ( Cafu, Zago, Assuncao, Aldair, Nakata, Emerson, Zebina, Batistuta, Samuel, Balbo, Guigou and Candela). My conclusion: too many older players and too many over-valued and over-paid foreigners are big parts of Roma's and Serie A's problem - especially in CL/EL - and is why the clubs are not getting value for money. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 05-11-2010, 00:55 Edited by: nemesys at: 05-11-2010, 00:55 | @Tazmania nemesys, 2nd post in this discussion, 22-10-2010: "AC Milan and Roma key player in defense and midfield are getting older, and signing up Ibrahimovic, Robinho and Borriello is probably not enough to compensate this. As said in the past "3rd place battle" discussion, I believe that Serie A clubs pay a managment which was not really wise about the lack of interest in growing young local players. Just my personal opinion here" (and I remember I was talking with you about this subject in another interesting disussion in this forum already a while ago )Man! That journalist should at least pay me my copyrights!   Just kidding. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 26-11-2010, 17:51 Edited by: nemesys at: 26-11-2010, 17:51 | FIFTH WEEK (CL only) Quick considerations: - as expected Premiership and La Liga clubs are once again on top in CL performances. - La Liga has 3 clubs in CL KO rounds. - with Arsenal doing as good or better than Braga in the last matchday Premiership qualifies again 4 clubs in the CL KO rounds. - as expected Serie A is once again in the top 3 for CL performances. - with a Roma draw (or a Basel draw or loss) Italy qualifies once again 3 clubs in CL KO rounds. - Bundesliga already qualified 2 clubs in CL KO rounds. - Bundesliga missed once again to qualify 3 club in CL KO rounds, this season the 3rd club (Werder) missed also EL qualification. - as expected Bundesliga is again 3rd overall thanks to the excellency of the EL results, despite some lack of results in CL; - as expected Serie A is again far behind 4th overall because of the huge lack of EL results. - Ligue 1 is 5th, as expected, and at the moment the only top 5 championship that didn't earned above (but just a little less) the 50% of total maximum points. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: flob
Date: 26-11-2010, 19:25 | Nemesys, Where did you get 2 wins for France? Did I miss something or is that a mistake? Greetings, flob |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 27-11-2010, 23:20 Edited by: nemesys at: 27-11-2010, 23:20 | @flob You are correct. Shame on me I got confused from the fact that both Olympique qualified this week, but in fact Lyon did even losing its match. Thanks for the correction. FIFTH WEEK (CL only) With Ligue 1 clubs a little more below 50% of maximum points. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 03-12-2010, 02:39 | FIFTH WEEK Prmiership, La Liga and Serie A clubs this matchday scored exactly the same: 9/14 (64.2%), with 6pts from CL and 3pts from EL; overall, after 5 matches, they all are below 50% of points in EL and are performing way better in CL. Bundesliga is the only above 50% in EL, and the only that performs better in EL (where it is 1st) than in CL (where it is 4th). With all the respect for UEFA Rankings and regulations, and the excellency of Bundesliga clubs results in EL, and even recognizing that the strength of Bundesliga is more balanced between its clubs, I still believe, and this is just my own opinion, that EL results have too much weight and have a too important influence in determining the number of spots in CL: in the last 6 years, in CL, Bundelsiga clubs couldn't, not even once, perform better than Serie A ones; and no matter this, Seria A is going to lose a spot in CL in favor of Bundesliga. Of course mostly Serie A can blame only its own clubs for the poor results they have in EL (years now without any valuable achievement); but anyways, also if I can live with it, this little paradox sounds a little ironic to me. Again, just my opinion. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: FrancoisD
Date: 03-12-2010, 12:10 | There is a logic for Qualification of 4th club to CL, and 6th to EL, to be tied with results in Europa League as much as results in CL. From those 2 lists, which ones seems more likely candidates for CL spots ? Inter, Udinese, Chievo Verone, Fiorentina, Sampdoria Stuttgart, Hertha, Schalke, Bayern München, Hamburg, Bayer Leverkusen |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 03-12-2010, 13:28 | @FrancoisD Well, I have to admit that you are bringing a very valid point. In facts, especially with NC path, the change for the Serie A clubs will be more about one of the big names finishing 4th, than about the average 4th club in Serie A being a candidate to win the CL and really deserving participating to the CL instead of the EL. The 4th spot to CL(QR) it is in facts an additional option to qualify for the next CL for big names as AC Milan or Bayern when they have a bad season domestically finishing below the 3rd place in Serie A or Bundesliga. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: greenbay
Date: 05-12-2010, 10:15 | With all the respect for UEFA Rankings and regulations, and the excellency of Bundesliga clubs results in EL, and even recognizing that the strength of Bundesliga is more balanced between its clubs, I still believe, and this is just my own opinion, that EL results have too much weight and have a too important influence in determining the number of spots in CL You are absolulety right. Bayern are the only German club who are really Champions League material. Even Schalke and Bremen, who frequently qualify for CL, are not really more than average group stage or 1/16 drop out teams. Hamburg, Leverkusen, Stuttgart who normally make it to EL, stand usually no chance to survice CL group stage. But despite that, Germans will be awarded a 4th CL spot in 2012/13 season for sure and very like in 2013/14 season. As a German, I say that is ridiculous. Germany should not be awarded an additional CL spot, but two additional EL spots insteads. I would predict, that teams finishing 7th and 8th in Bundesliga will very likely survive at least group stage. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Zhund0r
Date: 05-12-2010, 11:02 | If you give Germany an additional EL spot they will be ranked on top every year. The only threat for Germany is the 4th place in the CLGS and this year it happened. The last time it was Hamburg 3 or 4 years ago. Yes, Dortmund might fail in ELGS but they have many games to play, too and you can call it an exception while being in pot 4 and getting 2 other top clubs. Actually it is an disadvantage for Germany to gain an additional CL spot if we only consider coefficients. BUT, and that's the far more important point: The same teams can qualify more easily every year and constant participation is the key to become a european top club. Every year other clubs from Bundesliga qualify for CL and there are many clubs who are capable to do so. If you want to become a big fish you need the CL money to build a great squad especially if you have a much less interesting TV pot like in Germany. I'm pretty sure Germany will do better in future when 2-3 other clubs besides Bayern can overpower the rest. If you have a look at Italy, Spain, England and even France you recognize that they always send the same clubs to CLGS. Inter, Milan, Roma + 1 (Juve, Fiorentina) Chelsea, ManU, Arsenal + 1 (Liverpool / Tottenham) Real, Barca, + 2 (Valencia / Sevilla / Villareal) Lyon, Marseille + 1 (Bordeaux / PSG) If you look at the last years who qualified for CL in Germany: Bayern, Wolfsburg, Schalke, HSV, Werder, Stuttgart and this year it might become Dortmund and Leverkusen. And there is a reason for that. If someone plays european football they don't concentrate on the domestic league as they do usually. The clubs not participating in Europe do their best to reach a European spot. This fluctuation is the biggest problem of the Bundesliga regarding CL football and an additional spot can solve this problem easily. You will see that the top clubs will buy many players in summer since they know they have to qualify for CL and it's a bigger chance this time. It will be interesting to see which teams can profit from this situation. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: greenbay
Date: 08-12-2010, 06:51 | Of course, Bundesliga does itself no favor to gain the 4th CL spot. This will last maybe 2 years, then they will fall behind Italy again or maybe some other country performing well in the next 2 years. To be honest, under just that point of view, Germans must be somewhat glad, that Bayern lost the CL-final to Inter, not giving them the 4th spot immediately. Look at the current Bundesliga table. OK, it's only week 15. But hey, it's not week 5 either. If season ended today, assuming Germany already had the 4th spot, Dortmund, Mainz, Leverkusen will directly qualify. Hannover would go to playoffs. Ok, people outside Germany have heard of Dortmund and Leverkusen. Although not performing well the last couple of years, they won some silverware winner in the last century. But Mainz? Hannover? Hey, we are talking teams that have qualified for UEFA cup maybe like one time in the last two decades each. But not via Bundesliga, but the lucky way as the cupfinal runner-up. Those teams, although they have a good season (at least until week 15), would not stand a chance in CL. Germany would be better of with 2 CL-spots, basically one for Bayern und one for the "team of the year". And then give them 6 instead of 3 EL-spots. (Assuming we trade 2 CL-spots against 3 EL-spots, maybe even 4, to be fair value for Bundesliga in total.) |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 08-12-2010, 09:40 | Why would it be so bad to have 4 CL teams for Germany? It means 1 extra team playing, as they still will have 3 EL teams. And what's the problem if the 4th team drops into EL in Q4? We have stated before on this forum that the points best can be gathered in the EL. So I think that Germany can keep this 3rd place up a long time! With the current CL format it's not that hard to become 3rd for a German team. Of course surprise draws like happening with Twente and Tottenham will keep happening, but also ones that make Schalke groupwinner. As Germany is string in El I think they will keep up this 3rd spot. That's the reason why! Spain was on top always not because they were the best in CL: it's a long time since Real has passed 2nd round KO tie. Not it was because of the likes of Alves, Villarreal, Sevilla doing well in EL. No as long as Germany keeps doing well in EL they will keep this 3rd spot, or even rise! Only when teams start to forget EL because they only play for CL berths that's when the downfall will begin. Another funny thing I read on this topic is that Germany has changing top-3's every year. That was the same argument Malko was using the last couple of years explaining why France was below Germany. What a world are we living in. One year it's an argument for youi, and the next the same is held against you.... |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 08-12-2010, 09:55 | @Zhund0r, greenbay Going a little bit off-topic. Do you believe that the Bundesliga scenario you describe has some political or geographical reasons? Is from the fact that Germany is a Federation? Talking about the last 20 years, Serie A power was quite monopolized by few big names: AC Milan, Internazionale (2 clubs from the financial capital) and Juventus (supported by one of the biggest industries of the country). Few other big cities clubs, as Roma, Lazio and Napoli, could win one or two scudetti each, but not really change the hierarchy. La Liga is dominated by Real and Barca, with few exception as Valencia. Premiership seems a little more open to different contenders, but Manchester United won many of the recent domestic titles and the names of the top clubs hardly change. In Bundesliga, as you pointed out, besides Bayern being the most titled and rich club, you both describe a really balanced scenario. Just my curiosity. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: JK
Date: 08-12-2010, 09:56 Edited by: JK at: 08-12-2010, 09:58 | @ greenbay At least Germany is providing a little more variety in regards to CL teams. There are mostly the same CL teams from England, Spain and Italy. It gets boring to see the same teams compete all the time from those countries. And the whole point of getting better in the coefficient ranking, is to get more CL and EL places, more sure group stage places, and so on. I think one CL place more will financial help Bundesliga clubs. The 3rd place club is automatically in the group stage, which means for sure quite a lot of money. So they can better plan and buy players for the CL season. And the 4th place Bundesliga club is not automatically doomed, like some people seem to assume. It is not like clubs are total crap, which get that place. If they don't qualify for the CL, they play in the EL. If they qualify for the CL, there is at least a good chance, that they finished at least on the 3rd place in a CL group and can play further in the EL. I think for example that Bremen would have gotten a 3rd place, if it was competing in an easier group. And I think a 4th place Bundesliga clubs have also a good chance, to survive the CL group stage. From a coefficient point of view, I don't think every club will share the fate of Bremen of this year and will end up at the bottom of the CL group with relative few points. 4th place Bundesliga clubs may be not be good enough for winning the CL, but it is not like all the other clubs in the CL are able to do it. Even the arguably 2nd best team from Spain Real Madrid went out of the competition in the first knock out round 6 times in a row. And no one is saying because of this, that Spain doesn't deserve four CL places. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 08-12-2010, 10:16 | @JK, that was exactly like my post! |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: JK
Date: 08-12-2010, 10:20 | Yes. Great minds think alike! I wrote it before I read your comment. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: badgerboy
Date: 08-12-2010, 11:38 | I agree totally with JK & Ricardo. The fact that the Bundesliga is so "unpredictable" also means that the 4th team is just as likely to do well in the CL GS as the 3rd. Bremen struggled this year - but against Tottenham in the last game I believe they had about 10 1st team players out. And in a poor season they still eliminated the 4th Italian team in qualifying & just beat Inter - all be it in a fairly dead game. And Schalke just won a CL group whilst languishing only a place outside the Bundesliga relegation. I'd also say that this season appears to be an extreme example of the "unpredictable"? I'd tend to expect Germany's CL places to go to Bayern + 2 (or 3) from the next 6 - Bremen, Dortmund, Hamburg, Leverkusen, Schalke & Stuttgart. Wolfsburg added themselves to the equation by winning the league a few years back. But this year - even including Wolfsburg - only 2 of these 8 teams are currently in the top 6 of the Bundesliga. Even Bayern are only 7th. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Zhund0r
Date: 08-12-2010, 12:05 | @ Ricardo: ^^ I think Malko used it for european spots in general. If he used it for CL only he was just wrong like I explained above. It was always Lyon, Marseille and Bordeaux the last years. Only last season a surprise happened and Malko used the opportunity to generalize it. Remember a year ago the thread "Lyon, Bordeaux, Marseille CL - good for France?" lol. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 08-12-2010, 12:12 Edited by: nemesys at: 08-12-2010, 12:15 | I'd tend to expect Germany's CL places to go to Bayern + 2 (or 3) from the next 6 - Bremen, Dortmund, Hamburg, Leverkusen, Schalke & Stuttgart. Wolfsburg added themselves to the equation by winning the league a few years back Same opinion here. And also limiting the expected Bundesliga CL spot contenders to those clubs, they are few more (or at least more equally balanced) than the ones expected in the others three leagues (Premiership, La Liga and Serie A). Btw, I remember that also Hoffenheim started great few years ago, but dropped down in the 2nd part of the season. Big names usually (at least in Serie A) manage to be at the top of their form in the spring time, when decisive matches are played; this probably might be also the case of Bayern: today is -7 from Mainz 2nd and -6 from Leverkusen 3rd, my prediction is that it will manage to finish in the Bundesliga Top 3 by the end of the season, likely with Dortmund and Leverkusen. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Zhund0r
Date: 08-12-2010, 12:26 | Well, different topic at all: Winter break - curse or blessing? It brings some advantages (recovery, variety, get fit injured players, find the form again) and some disadvantages (lose the good form, lose the rhythm). Experienced teams tend to get better after the break, though. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: FrancoisD
Date: 08-12-2010, 13:30 | @Zhund0r I don't know what you use as "last years" to say that France is Lyon+Marseille more than Germany is Bayern+Werder. Last 10 years ? Last 5 years ? Bayern has 22 Bundesliga titles, Lyon 7. However, even if we disagree on whether France or Germany is more uncertain, it's clear that they are not like Spain/England/Italy, who are dominated by "big names" trusting CL Pot 1 places. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: greenbay
Date: 08-12-2010, 13:41 | Going a little bit off-topic. Do you believe that the Bundesliga scenario you describe has some political or geographical reasons? Is from the fact that Germany is a Federation? Simple answer: No. Just count the number of German champions in the last two decades: Bayern, Dortmund, Werder, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart, Kaiserslautern. You won't find 6 different champions in England nor Italy nor Spain. Additionally there were 2 sides, that failed to do the big leap, but were runner-up at least 4 times in those 20 years, Leverkusen and Schalke. That's 8 teams beeing champion material. And maybe add the sleeping 70's/80's giant, Hamburg, who usually make it to the top 5, you have 9. That has nothing to do with the "federal" status of Germany. That is just because, Germany have - except for Bayern - no dominant clubs shutting out the rest of the league from winning titles and therefore earning big TV and merchandising money. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: greenbay
Date: 08-12-2010, 13:57 | Well, different topic at all: Winter break - curse or blessing? Winter break in Germany, usually some 6 weeks or so, is in many years like the start of a whole new saison, only with the points from the 1st round carried over instead of starting at zero. Look at 2008-09 season. Hoffenheim were 1st after the first round with 35 points, Wolfsburg were 8th with 26 points. At the end of the season, Wolfsburg were champion with 69 points, that's 40 in second round. Hoffenheim came 7th, not even qualifiying for EL, with 55 points, that's only 20 points in second round. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 08-12-2010, 13:59 | That is just because, Germany have - except for Bayern - no dominant clubs shutting out the rest of the league from winning titles and therefore earning big TV and merchandising money. Just a different economical distribution then. Thanks for the answer. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: greenbay
Date: 08-12-2010, 14:12 | Yes, and that's a big issue here in Germany, equal economic distribtuion. The Bundesliga have a TV contract, that grants Bayern only some 10% of the overall TV money. So 90% for the other 17 clubs. Imho in Italy the big four earn 90% of the TV money, leaving 10% to the other 16 teams. Even relegation candidates have 40,000 to 60,000 capacity stadiums and frequently sold out, earning them substiancial amounts from ticket sales. In Italy or Spain, you will hardly find any relegation candidates selling 20,000 to 30,000 seats. Result: No Champions League material except for Bayern, but even smaller sides can make it to UEFA cup and survive gruop stage, as i.e. Aachen, Nuremberg, Frankfurt, and Mainz did in the last 10 years. 4 clubs that usually relegate and re-promote every couple of years. You will not find that in any other top European league. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Cirdan
Date: 08-12-2010, 14:25 | @Greenbay: not quite true. The Serie A went back to a collective deal as well. Though it is a bit top heavy - the big clubs get about 3 times as much as the smallest. But then, the German contract is not the most even either, Bayern gets more than double of what the small teams get, in England and France, it's a bit less than that. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Zhund0r
Date: 08-12-2010, 15:16 | @ Francois: Well, I was talking about CL participation, not about the domestic titles. It wasn't about Bayern and Werder at all, both failed to reach CL recently, too. German CL participants were Bayern, Werder, Schalke, Stuttgart, Hamburg, Wolfsburg and Leverkusen. I don't think you can compare it to the situation in France. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: FrancoisD
Date: 08-12-2010, 16:34 | Bayern, Werder, Schalke, Stuttgart, Hamburg, Wolfsburg and Leverkusen 7 clubs If you include Leverkusen for CL participation, it means you go back as far as 2004-2005 season, which means that for France we have : Lyon, Marseille, Bordeaux, Lille, Monaco, Auxerre, Toulouse, Paris Saint-Germain, 8 clubs. On those 7 seasons (2004-2005 to 2010-2011), participations are as follows : Lyon 7 Bayern, Werder 6 Schalke, Marseille 4 Bordeaux 3 Stuttgart, Lille, Monaco 2 Auxerre, Toulouse, Paris Saint-Germain, Hambourg, Wolfsburg, Leverkusen 1 Please check facts before you make claims |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 08-12-2010, 22:58 | FIFTH WEEK (CL only) Great week for Bundesliga in CL. Now Bundesliga, for points %, besides 1st in EL, it is also 3rd in CL and the best overall. Please correct any possible error. Qualified to CL KOrounds: ENG: 4/ 4 -> 3 1st; 1 2nd nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 09-12-2010, 00:06 | I forgot to mention one last stat/consideration: As showed above, in CL 14 out of 16 clubs from Top 5 leagues managed to qualify to CL KO rounds. This was the maximum possible: the only two clubs who missed the qualification (Werder and Auxerre) were in a group with other two clubs from Top 5 leagues; in both cases one of the other two Top 5 was from Serie A, in both cases the other club in the group was from Eredivisie (btw, quite unlucky for Netherlands fans), and in both case the Eredivisie club managed to finish 3rd and qualify for EL (which, obviously, means that no clubs from Top 5 leagues who started the season in CL will be in EL next spring). The only two clubs not from the Top 5 leagues who qualified for CL KO rounds (Shakthar and Kobenhavn) were in groups with only one Top 5 club (respectively Arsenal and Barcelona) to battle with: none of the Top 5 club missed to qualify to CL KO in favor of a non Top 5 club. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: JK
Date: 09-12-2010, 06:34 Edited by: JK at: 09-12-2010, 06:45 | "ENG Premier. CL: 2W 1D 1L 0E = 5/ 8 -> 62.5% of max. points" England made 1W 2D 1L 4/8 points And Italy has made so far 12 draws in the group stage of the EL. Is that a record for a country? Those 2 wins are by the way not much in 20 games. And Germany made more points than Italy in the CL so far. Great!  |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: greenbay
Date: 09-12-2010, 07:58 Edited by: greenbay at: 09-12-2010, 11:16 | If Napoli does not qualify tonight, Italy have lost the 4th CL spot for sure. Assuming - Inter defends the CL title with a perfect record, that's 17 points for 7 wins and 3 bonusrounds. - Milan loses the CL final to Inter with an otherwise perfect record, that's 15 points for 6 wins and 3 bonusrounds. - Roma loses the CL semi-final to Inter/Milan with an otherwise perfect record, that's 10 points for 4 wins and 2 bonusrounds. - the 4 Italian EL teams win their week 6 match except for a Napoli tie, that's 7 points for 3 wins and a tie. resulting in 49 points divided by 7 teams equals 7,000 points for the five years coefficient. Germany currently are 7,147 points in front. Doomsday Italy, even if German teams lose out all their remaining matches. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: ferdi
Date: 09-12-2010, 09:09 | "If Napoli does not qualify tonight, Italy have lost the 4th CL spot for sure." Not quite right. In principle, they could still qualify until next Wednesday. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: greenbay
Date: 09-12-2010, 10:43 | Touché. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: bbi
Date: 09-12-2010, 11:02 | I am shocked you could even think of things like this. That is never going to happen. Milan will obviously win the final with Inter. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 09-12-2010, 12:27 | England made 1W 2D 1L 4/8 points Corrected below. Thanks! And Italy has made so far 12 draws in the group stage of the EL. Is that a record for a country? Probably yes, since this EL format is quite recent. By the way, probably also the 5 consecutive draws for Juventus (out without losing a single match till now) are a record. Those 2 wins are by the way not much in 20 games. No, they aren't... And Germany made more points than Italy in the CL so far. In facts this is quite interesting: no matter Werder elimination (4th) and the 3 Serie A clubs qualified, Bundesliga scored more points (23 vs. 20). The Serie A clubs scored 7, 7 and 6 points (10, 10 and 8 in their Group), just the minimum to be qualified, both of them 2nd. Bayern and Schalke instead managed to qualify 1st, one it is the last season runner up and the other, no matter is not shining domestically, has some top class players (Neuer, Jurado, Raul, Huntelaar) and played solidly in CL, especially at home. If both clubs confirm those good performances in the KO Rounds, it could be hard for the Serie A CL clubs to score more points in CL by the end of the season (as usually happens in CL). A Roma vs. Schalke match in the 1st KO round for example would be really interesting. If Napoli does not qualify tonight (-> next week), Italy have lost the 4th CL spot for sure. Thanks for the info, I was wondering about that (and guessing it was as you say). Adding coefficients I get confused after few seconds, so it is cool to have someone comfortable with coefficient enough to do those math calculations for me. Milan will obviously win the final with Inter. Are you kidding? Obviously it will be a 0-0 draw after 120', then PK. SIXTH WEEK (CL only) nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: waernaer
Date: 09-12-2010, 20:32 | @nemesys Absolutely LOVE this table.  One comment/favor though... Could you either BOLD or italisize or both the total lines for each country in your Overall portion of the table? Would make it that much easier to read. Again,.... LOVE this table. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 09-12-2010, 21:10 | Absolutely LOVE this table. Sincerely, thanks. Publishing something (in a foreign language) somewhere you know lot of people will read it, you never know if it could be appreciate by (or useful to) someone. I'm actually surprised from the number of replies and interesting comments in this thread. Could you either BOLD or italisize or both the total lines for each country in your Overall portion of the table? Would make it that much easier to read. What? People actually read them?  LOL (just kidding)Seriously, good suggestion, and it is just 10 couples of extra tags (b+i seems the best choice), it will be done from next week results. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 17-12-2010, 13:23 | SIXTH WEEK Please correct every possible error. Thanks nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: SirHenri
Date: 19-12-2010, 00:39 | Great table again, looks all correct to me :T |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 19-12-2010, 16:29 Edited by: nemesys at: 19-12-2010, 17:14 | Great table again, looks all correct to me :T Thanks. Appreciated. EDIT: (so far) Country Coefficients 2010-11; Country Ranking 2011; clubs left in 2010-11 UEFA cups: 1 England 13.642 1st >> 81.070 6/7nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Tazmania
Date: 23-12-2010, 11:33 Edited by: Tazmania at: 23-12-2010, 11:48 | On the bonus points table, why is Italy calculated against 4 clubs when only 3 played in CL? I thought the table would try to compare the 3 Italian teams in GS with the 3 German teams. This table is very instructive because it explains the often-cited complaints of fans of Italian clubs: "how can Germany be about to gain a fourth club in CL and Italy lose its fourth CL place when Italian clubs do better than German clubs in CL?". This season Germany - statistically - performed better than Italy, but 3 Italian clubs reached the last 16 with none eliminated in the GS, while only 2 German clubs did likewise, one being eliminated in the GS. This is a genuine anomaly, even if I like UEFA's method because I think consistency in terms of individual results is very important, the problem seems to come because each team's aim is to qualify, not necessarily win as many games as possible. Perhaps this is another benefit of the bonus co-efficient points, which ensures that the importance attached to each result and the overall aim of qualifying for the last 16 are (perfectly?) balanced. Once again, many thanks for the tables, they are very instructive. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: ferdi
Date: 23-12-2010, 12:43 | Obviously the best three Italian teams are competitive in CL. But three of the teams from place 4 to place 7 cannot even pass EL group stage. If Italy wants a fourth team in CL, it has somehow to promote a team from Europa League. This should be done by good results in Europa League by the sub-top-teams from Italy, which would draw the benefit from an additional spot in CL - and not so much by good results of the top three teams in CL, whose competitiveness in CL is out of question anyway. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: nemesys
Date: 23-12-2010, 16:36 | @Tazmania On the bonus points table, why is Italy calculated against 4 clubs when only 3 played in CL? Think this way: the goal is to have the same output than the UEFA Country Coefficient (excluding QRs - because of my laziness - and using % instead of coefficient - for easiness in figuring out the performances - ), but dividing CL from EL results. Sampdoria could make 17 (5+12) points in CL winning all the matches, missed the chance in CLQR to gain the bonus, so it is 0/5 in CL. The remaining % (4/12pts) goes in EL performances, where it did play. I thought the table would try to compare the 3 Italian teams in GS with the 3 German teams. That's the reason for two separate Tables: With Bonuses and Without. This table is very instructive because it explains the often-cited complaints of fans of Italian clubs: "how can Germany be about to gain a fourth club in CL and Italy lose its fourth CL place when Italian clubs do better than German clubs in CL?". I commented that above saying that it was kind of ironic to lose a CL spot from bad performing in EL. But it is also true that acting in such a snob way toward EL (which IS a Uefa competition and UEFA cares about it) it is not a wise attitude for Italian football. And as well it has to be noted the mediocrity of Serie A "sub-top" level (read as "clubs ranked 4th to 10th domestically") where the clubs from serie A cannot compare to Premirship and are below La Liga and Bundesliga: for example Napoli, the only Serie A club qualified to the EL KO rounds, it is surely not in the favorites to win the EL trophy (I believe that the majority of the remaining 31 clubs have more chances to win than the Serie A side). By the way (if you are interested to) Badgerboy and I (and few others) already discussed this recently in this forum in another thread. This season Germany - statistically - performed better than Italy, but 3 Italian clubs reached the last 16 with none eliminated in the GS, while only 2 German clubs did likewise, one being eliminated in the GS. We should wait the end of the season: Serie A could finish better than Bundesliga in both % and peak performances (witch is my prediction, based on previous seasons experience), but also Bundesliga still could have this year a better peak performance with more clubs in 1/4, Semi or Final (which would be an inversion of tendency). In spring things will be interesting. This is a genuine anomaly, even if I like UEFA's method because I think consistency in terms of individual results is very important, the problem seems to come because each team's aim is to qualify, not necessarily win as many games as possible. Kind of true. Going off-topic I've been thinking in past about an all Bonuses for the winners solution to this issue: for example in KO rounds you could give 4 points for qualifying no matter if after PKs or with 2 wins; while the loser take the normal coefficient (Arsenal 2-0 0-1 facing Barca would worth 4pts, the same as Chelsea 1-0 1-0 facing Kobenhaven; while Barca makes 2 from its victory and Kobenhavn not). I am thinking about similar ideas for the GSs, someday I have time I'll probably open a thread about that. Perhaps this is another benefit of the bonus co-efficient points, which ensures that the importance attached to each result and the overall aim of qualifying for the last 16 are (perfectly?) balanced. I like the introduction of those bonus as well. Once again, many thanks for the tables, they are very instructive. Thanks. @ferdi Nice analysis. I agree. nemesys. |
| Re: La Liga vs. Bundesliga vs. Serie A analysis | |
| Author: Cirdan
Date: 27-12-2010, 14:20 | "This season Germany - statistically - performed better than Italy, but 3 Italian clubs reached the last 16 with none eliminated in the GS, while only 2 German clubs did likewise, one being eliminated in the GS. This is a genuine anomaly, even if I like UEFA's method because I think consistency in terms of individual results is very important, the problem seems to come because each team's aim is to qualify, not necessarily win as many games as possible." Here you completely ignore Sampdoria - why? they don't count because Werder eliminated them, but the horrible results of Werder weigh the Germans success down? And it doesn't count either that both Schalke and Bayern won their groups, while none of the Italians did? So far, I don't think you can say the Italians outperformed the Germans this season. They have one more team in 2nd round, but they also had 1 more starter and didn't win their groups. However, over the last couple of years it looks a bit different... and it's not just the top 3 either. We can laugh about Juve and Fiorentinas short stint at the top appears to be over already again, but both of them did reach the last 16 in the last 3 years, something Werder and Wolfsburg failed to archieve, and usually not because of difficult draws. |