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Author: JPV
Date: 06-11-2009, 12:11

BATTLE FOR PLACE 12-16

SWITZERLAND 28.125

FC Basel (EL Group E, 1st): likely to qualify, but faces 2 hard games.
FC Zurich ():

GREECE 27.099

Olympiakos Piraeus (CL Group H, 2nd): good chances to qualify, next game will be crucial
Panathinaikos (EL Group F, 2nd): virtually qualified
AEK Athens (EL Group I, 4rd): small changes to qualify. Must win to Everton and hope Everton doesn't win vs. BATE.

Prediction: Olympiakos to CL, Panathinaikos to EL, AEK Athens eliminated

DENMARK 26.550

FC Kobenhavn (EL Group K, 3rd): 3 points lagging, but still a decent chance to overtake Sparta in a good day. Has an easier path to qualify.

Prediction: Kobenhavn Eliminated

SCOTLAND 25.291

Glasgow Rangers (CL Group G, 4rd): not yet elimated, but almost.
Celtic (EL Group C, 4rd): virtually eliminated

Prediction: the end

BELGIUM 23.700

Anderlecht (EL Group A, 2nd): qualified if Dinamo Zagreb's punishments upholds, otherwise virtually qualified
Club Brugge (EL Group J, 2nd): Faces nr 3 at home and a qualified Shakhtar away, so slight advantage to Toulouse.
Standard De Ličge (CL Group H, 3rd): CL qualification chances depends on outcome of AZ-Olympiakos, EL qualification must be possible

Prediction: All 3 teams to EL

RICARDo:
Switzerland: 7 points (4 teams) => 29.875
Greece: 15 points (5 teams) => 30.099
Denmark: 3 points (5 teams) => 27.150
Scotland: 5 points (6 teams) => 26.124
Belgium: 7 points (5 teams) => 25.100

Conclusion: Greece might overtake Switzerland, Belgium is doubtfull, will probably be close to Scotland, but no cigar (in Ricardo's predictions: AZ overtakes Standard, i doubt this).

Author: dzomba
Date: 06-11-2009, 12:54

Important are battles Greece-Switzerland and Scotland-Belgium, where i think both are 50%-50%.

We can already consider Romania part of this company, and that's their realistic place. Plus, we can possibly add Czech R. from company below.

Long-term, this is very balanced battle, only Greece is ahead, and they will soon replace Romania in company above, in battle for 9th spot. They do not belong here.

Author: THEPOSH
Date: 04-12-2009, 10:41
Edited by: THEPOSH
at: 05-12-2009, 19:07

I disagree.
The battle between Swiss and Greece is unimportant since the winner of the CL will probably have qualified for CL anyway.
So it's the race for the 13th and not the 12th.
In that respect, the interesting part is whether Denmark can close the gap or not.
Points with one group stage game remainíng:
Swiss 28.125
Greece 27.299
Denmark 26.950
It's only 1.175 between the three.
As for Swiss, it all depends on Basel's homegame to Fulham. If Basel lose, there will be no more points for Swiss.
As for Denmark, FCK need to draw in Prague to progress, which is likely. A win for FCK yields 400p - so they need 3 wins to pull past the Swiss. One in Prague and then two in the last 16. It is doable but hard odds.
As for Greece in between, they will be down to 1-2 teams after the group stage.
Aek Athens is already out.
Panathinaikos need a point in the last game to progress but a loss could throw them out.
Olympiakos need a point home to Arsenal to progess to the CL knockout but could also find themselves in the EL if they lose to Arsenal and Standard wins at home to AZ - which is likely.

So still a lot going on in this part of the rankings.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Olympiakos Date: 05-12-2009, 01:17	I would say MD6 is going to be the decisive for 12th spot. If Olympiakos wins or draws, then the 5 bonus points = 1.000 in country rankings will make the difference in the end. If we lose, everything will be open. Basel is a good team, and surely can add more to Swiss coefficient

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: THEPOSH Date: 05-12-2009, 19:01	As I said, the 12th spot is irrelevant. It's the 13th spot that counts.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Olympiakos Date: 05-12-2009, 20:30	"As I said, the 12th spot is irrelevant. It's the 13th spot that counts." I don't care about "what counts", but about the best place between 12th and 13th, which is 12th.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: THEPOSH Date: 06-12-2009, 10:07	But you would care if you end up 14th.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: JPV Date: 06-12-2009, 11:46	"The battle between Swiss and Greece is unimportant since the winner of the CL will probably have qualified for CL anyway." Note "probably", not "sure".

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Olympiakos Date: 06-12-2009, 14:19 Edited by: Olympiakos at: 06-12-2009, 16:38	"But you would care if you end up 14th." Try to understand. The "best" is what counts and not the minimum. The fact that the 13th spot "probably" gives a direct CL spot, this doesn't mean that Greece is happy by being 13th.

Author: Overgame
Date: 06-12-2009, 17:01

"Try to understand. The "best" is what counts and not the minimum. The fact that the 13th spot "probably" gives a direct CL spot, this doesn't mean that Greece is happy by being 13th."

ROFL :p Noone, except a few nerds like us, doesn't care about the rankings :p And, at the start of the season, you would signed with 2 hands to be 13th. Don't deny it :p And that's not probably, but "almost sure"

Atm, 12th-13th is a 50/50 battle. Olympiacos in CLR2 would give one point to Grecce, but probably the end of everything for them, and Basel vs Pana will make the dif.
And if Olympiacos fails, it can be 2 teams vs 1, but one less point for Greece.
Denmark will have some issues to challenge the 13th spot.

For the 15Th spot, Belgium needs a serious last MD. In fact, everything is really simple : Loss = out (or almost, for Anderlecht), draw or win = qualified for the next round. In the best case for Scotland, they will end with a coefficient of 26.291. Belgium has a coefficient of 23.900 : a difference of 2.391 points. * 5 { 12.

Belgium needs 12 points to pass Scotland. If the 3 teams qualifies, Balgium has a chance. If not, I don't think one of them can pass more than one round in EL, putting an end to the race.

Author: gderoo
Date: 07-12-2009, 10:59

"For the 15Th spot, Belgium needs a serious last MD. In fact, everything is really simple : Loss = out (or almost, for Anderlecht), draw or win = qualified for the next round. In the best case for Scotland, they will end with a coefficient of 26.291. Belgium has a coefficient of 23.900 : a difference of 2.391 points. * 5 { 12.

Belgium needs 12 points to pass Scotland. If the 3 teams qualifies, Balgium has a chance. If not, I don't think one of them can pass more than one round in EL, putting an end to the race."

For belgium last MD is crucial. Standard will need some luck to qualify for CL but it is still possible, it can also qualify for EL if it draws or wins and it can be out when losing. Bruges will be qualified with a win or draw and could be out with losing against toulouse. For anderelecht a draw or win means "qualified" for EL, losing is out in case dinamo zagreb wins.
Best case for belgium, the 3 teams win en olympiakos loses (11 points !)
Worst case for belgium, the 3 teams lose and zagreb wins (0 points and
all out)
But I think the 3 teams will go to EL's next round. And then still anything can happen.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: ssrree Date: 09-12-2009, 01:38	Batlle for 15th spot between Scotland and Belgium will be very interesting.I think if Standard pass group in EL,Belgium will probably take a 15th spot.If Standard dont pass CL group,it will be very close,its a big question what can Anderlecht do against Ajax and what can Brugge to do with Toulouse.All Belgian clubs can pass group,but also all can finished in the group.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: JPV Date: 09-12-2009, 08:05	If Standard wins & Olympiakos doesn't, Belgium already gets 7 points. So off course it's very likely in that case... but we are Standard...

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: gderoo Date: 09-12-2009, 09:20	Not only will the upcomming games from standard, bruges and anderlecht be important for the spot 15, if standard succeeds in passing to CL then the next years we could go for spots 15 and up. When all belgium teams would be out, we need to look down. So this year is very important for belgium ranking.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Laudrup1 Date: 11-12-2009, 11:16	Is it true that the Liege keeper's headed goal takes Belgium above Scotland for the 2011-2012 season then? Is that now set in stone?

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Yamor Date: 11-12-2009, 13:12	No, they still need at least 8 more points this season - (remember, it's 2 points for a win, 1 for a draw, and a bonus point for reaching the QF, SF or F). If Celtic draw next week, they need 9, and if Celtic win they'll need 10.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Laudrup1 Date: 11-12-2009, 16:50	Thought as much. Read this article today and thought it'd be wrong. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/football/spl/rangers/2009/12/11/goalkeeper-s-heade r-costs-scottish-clubs-a-champions-league-spot-86908-21888589/

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Wak Date: 12-12-2009, 08:24	It's you in the comments! You're an evangelist for Bert Kassies website :-p This is still incredible that Wikipedia is not #1 source for UEFA coefficient explanation. Or is it?

Author: Olympiakos
Date: 12-12-2009, 15:07

A Basel defeat by Fulham means the end of 12th spot "battle", otherwise it can be interesting because I consider Basel capable of winning points in KO.

Also we have to wait and see how PAO will react after the new coach hired. Nioplias did some great work in Greece Youth team (lost in Euro final against Spain), but has zero experience in first level coaching. We'll see...

Overgame, it is possible Olympiakos won't contribute more than a draw or a win from now on, but the guaranteed 1.400 from qualification can be equated only with 3 wins + 1 draw in EL KO rounds(QF perhaps?)....what would you prefer?

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Overgame Date: 12-12-2009, 16:42	That's why I said 50/50 If I'm in front, and 1 points is enough, I take the bonus points. If I'm behind, and 1 points isn't enough, I'd rather go in EL.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Overgame Date: 16-12-2009, 23:55	Switzerland's season is over, and now they need to hope that Coppenhagen doesn't score 6 more points (that's like passing 2 rounds). Greece has secured a spot in the top 13 (i doubt that Belgium can reach them). Now, the battle for the 13th spot is reduced to Coppenhagen For the 15th spot, Belgium still needs 6 points and has at least 5 games left. That's all we know for now

Author: yveske123
Date: 17-12-2009, 00:02

Tonight's win of Club Brugge means that already 2 of the 3 remaining belgian teams are qualified for the 1/16th finals EL.
If Anderlecht gets at least a point at Ajax on thursday, that would be very positive for the belgian ranking towards the 15th spot, knowing that Scotland is out (only 1 game to play but already out).
Depending on the latest result of Celtic and also Anderlecht in the worst case, there'll be a 8 points gap towards the 15th spot for Belgian teams (it could only be 4 points, let's say 2 wins if Celtic loses and Anderlecht wins at MD6 of EL group stage). Should it finally be a recover and stand-up of the belgian teams/coefficient (remember: belgium was 4th 20 years ago, it was a long time ago, it will never come back

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Olympiakos Date: 17-12-2009, 00:43	The fight for 12th spot is over. Greece has 5 guaranteed games to play whereas Denmark has 2. Copenhagen needs more than 4 wins and at the same time no points for Greece....quite impossible to see Denmark 12th in the end. I see Belgium having more possibilities to overtake Denmark than the latter us.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: THEPOSH Date: 17-12-2009, 01:12	But only you care about the 12th spot. The battle now is whether Denmark can reach Swiss on the 13th spot. The gap is 1025p which means 3 wins (1200p). So Copenhagen needs a good draw to make it through the Round of 32 and still make some points in the Round of 16. Not impossible, but hard odds indeed. I think Belgium will overtake Scotland on the 15th spot though.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Olympiakos Date: 17-12-2009, 02:50	Yes I only care about 12th spot.

Author: Othello
Date: 17-12-2009, 10:31

Battle for 12th: More or less over. Greece will claim 12th spot - and deservedly. They belong further up the list.

Battle for 13th: Denmark (or rather FC Copenhagen) needs 3 more wins to overtake Switzerland. Hard odds but not impossible.

Battle for 15th: Belgium with 2-3 teams are trying to overtake Scotland. Every point will be crucial. Celtic better pull themselves together tonight or Scottish football could sink very deep.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: naabas Date: 17-12-2009, 21:10	Ajax - Anderlecht 1-3 Rapid - Celtic 3-3 What are now the conditions for Belgium to overpass Scotland ? How many points do we need ?

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Yamor Date: 17-12-2009, 21:26	Belgium need 5 points to overtake...

Author: BBP
Date: 18-12-2009, 10:51

5 points for Belgium to overtake Scotland, 18 points for Belgium to overtake 13rd Switserland (and for Denmark 13). Ok, very unlikely, but three teams still in, and after the 1/32 round everything is possible. Another very important fact is the new competition format in Belgium, there is almost no pressure in the national league because most things will be decided at the finish. Therefore all teams will prioritize Europe. About denmark, I'd rather bet my money on Belgium to overtake the Swiss than Copenhagen. The draw in two hours will be crucial, let's hope this:
Tel-Aviv - Club Bruges
Salzburg - Standard
Anderlecht - Copenhagen (

)

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: gderoo Date: 18-12-2009, 12:23	Tel-Aviv - Club Bruges Salzburg - Standard Anderlecht - Copenhagen Even in these games everything is possible. But I think Tel-aviv, Salzburg and Copenhagen are not to be underestimated. We'll see what the draw brings us. Overtaking scotland is quite close. 5 points means 2 wins and 1 draw. With atleast 6 six games to achieve this.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: BBP Date: 18-12-2009, 22:39	1 out of 3, could be worse: Standard -Salzburg The other two: Club Bruges - Valencia Anderlecht - Bilbao Valencia is a killer.. and Kobenhavn - Marseille, bye bye Denmark

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: kurt Date: 19-12-2009, 11:38	i think 1 team will survive, anderlecht will get a win and a draw standard home match a draw club brugge home match a draw so, 3 draws and 1 win, is is just enough to beat scotland and then 1 club go through , another possible matches to gain points

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: gderoo Date: 19-12-2009, 19:38	you forget that passing the round to the final 16 is an additional bonus point. And I think 2 out of 3 is possible. An may be a surprise. Who knows.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: scapulaire24 Date: 19-12-2009, 21:53	"you forget that passing the round to the final 16 is an additional bonus point." No. There is not bonus point at this stage.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: THEPOSH Date: 20-12-2009, 00:12	Bonuspoints start with the quarter finals

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Wak Date: 20-12-2009, 01:20	This isn't bad for Scotland. They needed to wake up. At the end, they may keep on lobbying for a superleague or atlantic league, and that would benefit to the whole game of football.

Author: Laudrup1
Date: 21-12-2009, 21:56

Yeah, Wak. It was me on the comments on the Daily Record site.

I fail to understand how journalists get away with writing such rubbish. Typical of that paper's standards though.

It was nothing more than the use of a "big incident" to grab people's attention sell a story. Infuriating.

You're right about this being a bit of a wake up for Scotland too. We'll float around the 12-16 spots and have had two poor seasons due to increased numbers of teams. They places will drop and the co-efficient will go up again and it'll keep yo-yoing just like the Romanians and other countries like us.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: zender Date: 22-12-2009, 11:59	I would give Standard Liege more chance against Sallzburg. The winter break in Austria will take a bit of the rhythm out of the team, giving Belgium a greater chance of collecting some more points and overtaking Scotland/drawing closer to the others as the Swiss and Danes.

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: kurt Date: 23-12-2009, 15:43	with defour back, manchester united want him for 16 million euro, salszburg has no chance salszburg is the lowest seeded from all clubs

Re: Battle for 12-16
Author: Ricardo Date: 23-12-2009, 22:30	Well, vs. Kortrijk Standard showed how they belong to be in the next fase. I guess they got to impove a lot, before they an contribute to Belgian coefficient.

Author: putje
Date: 28-12-2009, 22:54

Ricardo,

Standard is well know for their transfers. The Standard in februari can be quite different from the actual team. Dufour will be back for starters.
The Standard that nearly beat Liverpool, eliminated Everton last year, kept Arsenal in trouble for over 60 min can beat every team in Europe.
The Standard that plays in Belgian League/cup wil be beaten by everyone.
I wonder if they know themselves which Standard will enter the pitch then minutes before start.

Anyway. Belgium has done a lot of work, and if they don't defend their 2 ChL teams (and 5 European teams) they will certainly rewin them next year (when Roumania ans Switzerland lose their 2005-06 results).