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Author: JPV
Date: 06-11-2009, 12:10

BATTLE FOR PLACE 9-11

NETHERLANDS 33.713

PSV Eindhoven (EL Group K, 1st): good chance to qualify
Ajax (EL Group A, 1st): virtually qualified
Twente Enschede (EL Group H, 2nd): decent chance to qualify, but somewhat harder remaining 2 games
AZ Alkmaar (CL Group H, 4rd): hard task. Almost eliminated from CL, EL is still in own hands and not unrealistic.
Heerenveen (EL Group D, 3rd): will still face a tough task. I give them a slight edge.

Prediction: AZ Alkmaar eliminated, 4 other teams qualified for EL.

PORTUGAL 33.462

FC Porto (CL Group D, 2nd): qualified
Sporting Lisbon (EL Group D, 1st): virtually qualified
Benfica (EL Group I, 1st): virtually qualified
Nacional Funchal (EL Group L, 3rd): lagging 5 points compared to second, virtually eliminated

Prediction: Porto to CL, Nacional eliminated, Benfica & Sporting to EL.

TURKEY 32.450

Galatasaray (EL Group F, 1st): qualified
Fenerbahce (EL Group H, 1st): virtually qualified
Besiktas (CL Group B, 4rd): eliminated

Prediction: Galatasaray and Fenerbahce qualified, Besiktas eliminated.

RICARDO
Netherlands: 30 (6 teams) => 38.713
Portugal: 27 (6 teams) => 37.962
Turkey: 11 (5 teams) => 34.650

Conclusion: Turkey out of the race, Portugal has still a good shot, depending on AZ Alkmaar?

Author: mulligan
Date: 06-11-2009, 12:51

I don't know on which criteria the predictions of Ricardo are dependant.. But from now on it seems that all three countries are on race with Netherlands one step ahead of Portugal and Turkey, and that's because of more number of teams progressing in the group stages (more potential of collecting points) However, the winner depends on the further performances of the teams in further stages like Quarters or Semis.. Upto now it is not so certain IMO

Critical matches:
Sporting-Heerenveen
Fenerbahçe-Twente

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: babasol Date: 06-11-2009, 21:52	I think Portugal will take a 9th place,because just Porto will take 5 points more in CL.After them Holland,then Turkey!

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: Ricardo Date: 07-11-2009, 00:37	I think this is a great match, of which all 3 countries can still end up on 9th place. If you have 2 teams in 1 round or 1 team in 2 rounds doesn't make a difference. So it will depend on the really top teams and 'luck' of the draw. This might not be decided before quarters. Also all 3 countries do better last 2 rounds than countries 6-8, making it next yer maybe an even broader fight??

Author: dzomba
Date: 09-11-2009, 08:40

I bet on Portugal.

Both Porto and Benfica appeared in great shape, while Sporting may improve till spring. PSV and Ajax do not seem good enough to match Portugal's duo, and i do not expect a lot of help from others. Maybe Twente can score several points, but not much. All is in Portugal's hands, it will be only their fault if they fail. Netherlands can only wait for Portugal's slip.

Turkey is far behind, and i don't give them a chance. They would need a miracle, as in 2000. It's too big burden to have Sivas and Trabzon, Fener and Gala cannot annul that, this year at least.

But KO rounds are unpredictable, and dependant on draw. The battle is yet to happen, in spring.

Author: hamlett
Date: 09-11-2009, 19:05

If Netherlands can go as high as 39, Portugal nearly the same, and Romania goes on losing games, it might be indeed a battle for 8-10, with Romania-Netherlands-Portugal.

Romania, right now, is at 38.2. 10 games to be played, 12 pts scored out of 20 GS games. The trend is 6 more pts for last 10 games, plus ko rounds, with probably one or two teams left. Romania should be in a 39-41 range. According to Ricardo, Netherlands might be close to 39, Portugal at 38. If ever PSV, Ajax, Sporting or Benfica got to final, this could give an extra 2 pts. Maybe enough.

Author: ssrree
Date: 04-12-2009, 10:45

Netherlands 34.713
Portugal 33.962
Turkey 33.650

Porto allready pass CL/GS and 5 more bonus points for them will make Portugal coeff. about 34.900.
All countries are still very close and even Turkey has chance to take a 6th spot.Very important is with how many teams this countries will play on the spring.

Netherlands-Ajax and PSV are sure,Alkmaar,Hereven and Twente are still fighting for pass.
Portugal-Porto,Sporting and Benfica are sure,National is out of game
Turkey-Galatasaray and Fenerbahce are sure,Bešiktaš need a 2 goals win against CSKA to stay in EL.
So,we know on the spring that Portugal have 3/6 clubs in the game,Netherlands 2-5/6 in the game and Turkey 2-3/5 in the game.
If will be very interesting fight for 9th spot on the spring!

Author: mulligan
Date: 04-12-2009, 11:20
Edited by: mulligan
at: 04-12-2009, 11:21

Yeah, it seems that Portugal has a great advantage over the other at that point, but on the other hand Dutch and Turkish teams seem to perform incredibly great. If Besiktas manages to enter the EL I would even credit Turkey for the 9 th spot, with Netherlands likely to lose their 2 teams (AZ and Heerenveen).

By the way, does anybody know where I can find the list of bonus points offered for CL and EL qualifications for the further rounds?
Thanks

Author: hamlett
Date: 04-12-2009, 19:48

I really think this could be called Battle for 8-11, including Romania.

If Twente and PSV get draws at Bucarest and Cluj, while Ajax wins over Anderlecht, they could get around 35,7 while Romania would be 39,3 (losses against Stattgart, Zagreb, Pana).

Then I expect 3 teams from Netherlands (PSV, Ajax, Twente), 1 from Romania (Urziceni, EL).

And 22 points difference.

Probably one final and one QF, maybe one SF and one QF, would do the trick for the Netherlands if Urziceni draws Hamburg, Bremen or Shakthior in next round and gets eliminated.

Not too likely, but still possible.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 06-12-2009, 17:11

Bad week for Holland. There were 2 direct matches:
Twente-Fenerbahce, which Twente lost, though they shouldn't have
Sporting-Heerenveen, which Sporting drew in the extra time(again, grmbl).
A pity. Twente has to go full for a win next MD in Boekarest. I hope they'll manage. I think Holand will need them, to become 9th. It is an extremely tight finish. I'm afraid draws will decide it. Sofar Turkey is more impressive than Portugal, especially because Porto has the harder route in the CL, but it's unknown.
Next year the same 3 countrie fight again for spot 8-10, so then there are 2 winners. The current start-order for next season is the other wat around: Turkey-Portugal-Holland. I fear that if Holland doesn't lose their 6th team this yar, it will be next year.....

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: hamlett Date: 10-12-2009, 08:15	Ricardo : good news for Holland, with AZ in EL. Romania vs Holland is still open. Depends a little on next week direct games.

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: gderoo Date: 10-12-2009, 09:33	"Ricardo : good news for Holland, with AZ in EL. Romania vs Holland is still open. Depends a little on next week direct games." It ain't over until it is over: AZ not in EL but Standard is (in the dying minutes of the game they scored) bad luck for holland and AZ

Author: JPV
Date: 10-12-2009, 10:58

BATTLE FOR PLACE 9-11

NETHERLANDS 34.880

PSV Eindhoven (EL Group K, 1st): qualified & group winner points predicted: 13 points (SF EL)
Ajax (EL Group A, 1st): qualified, a draw will do for group winner points predicted: 6 points (1/8 EL)
Twente Enschede (EL Group H, 2nd): needs a win or Fenerbahce not to lose in order to qualify as second. points predicted: 1 point (EL 1/16)
AZ Alkmaar (CL Group H, 4rd): eliminated
Heerenveen (EL Group D, 3rd): needs a win AND a Hertha loss to qualify as second.points predicted: 2 points (out in EL group phase)

2 teams qualified (1 GW), one eliminated, 2 teams pending (1 with good chances, 1 will small chances).

PORTUGAL 35.129

FC Porto (CL Group D, 2nd): qualified & second points predicted: 1 point (CL 1/8)
Sporting Lisbon (EL Group D, 1st): qualified & group winner points predicted: 9 points (EL 1/4)
Benfica (EL Group I, 1st): qualified & group winner points predicted: 10 points (EL 1/4)
Nacional Funchal (EL Group L, 3rd): eliminated points predicted: 1 points (EL group phase)

1 team qualified CL, 2 teams qualified & group winner EL, 1 team eliminated

TURKEY 33.650

Galatasaray (EL Group F, 1st): qualified & group winner points predicted: 5 points (EL 1/8)
Fenerbahce (EL Group H, 1st): qualified & group winner points predicted: 6 points (EL 1/8)
Besiktas (CL Group B, 4rd): eliminated

2 teams qualified & group winner, 1 team eliminated

ROMANIA 38.991

Unirea Urziceni (CL Group G, 2nd): to EL points predicted: 1 point (EL 1/16)
Steaua Bucuresti (EL Group H, 4rd): eliminated points predicted: 2 points EL (group phase)
CFR Cluj (EL Group K, 4rd): eliminated points predicted: 1 points EL (group phase)
FC Timisoara (EL Group A, 4rd): eliminated points predicted: 0 points EL (group phase)
Dinamo Bucuresti (EL Group F, 3rd): must win away, by more than one goal difference or 1-2,3-4, ... points predicted: 0 points EL (group phase)

RICARDO
Netherlands: 22 (6 teams) => 38.546
Portugal: 21 (6 teams) => 38.629
Turkey: 11 (5 teams) => 35.850
Romania 4 (6 teams) => 39.657

Conclusion: Turkey out, Portugal & Netherlands will fight till the end... and if they fight well, they can catch Romania, although only Portugal is able to catch Romania imho: The Ricardo-system favours the Netherlands a bit to much (PSV must reach EL SF, which is already almost the maximum the can reach)

Author: Ricardo
Date: 10-12-2009, 13:59

Hmm, so the Steaua-Twente game takes up a double meaning: not only needs Twente the win to be independend of the Fener result (which I think they will need anyway, as Fener will draw), but it could also mean a step closer from Holland to Romanian spot.

JPV, I agree with you that it's not likely that Holland will keep up with Portugal. But, I'm thinking draw wil direct also the results. With Liverpool or Juventus as possible draws for all seeded and non seeded teams, it's still possible for Turkey to end above Portugal and Hollan. I just hope Twente will make it through, that gives us 3 chances to get at least 1 favorite draw

P.S. I count on me working on new sheets tonight...

Author: mulligan
Date: 16-12-2009, 13:05

OK Ricardo, be confident that Fener would not lose against Sheriff no matter how, which will mean that Twente will qualify

From now on, the draws would influence the progress of the rankings directly as you have said, but however in order that Turkey catches with Portugal and Holland, Gala and Fener should collect the maximum amount of points (which I do not expect as they just concentrate on real games), since Besiktas also wasted the chance of qualifying to Europea League.

I predict for:
Porto (eliminated unless drawn with Fio)
Sporting (Quarter or Semi)
Benfica (Quarter or Semi)

Ajax (Quarter or Semi)
PSV (Quarter)
Twente(1/16)

Fener (Quarter or Semi)
Gala (Quarter or Semi)

under normal circumstances. And I don't know whether a qualification from the group stage and former rounds (1/32 and 1/16) is credited by 1 bonus in Europe League. Is it so?

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: JPV Date: 16-12-2009, 13:45	Porto (eliminated unless drawn with Fio) Sporting (Quarter or Semi) Benfica (Quarter or Semi) Ajax (Quarter or Semi) PSV (Quarter) Twente(1/16) Fener (Quarter or Semi) Gala (Quarter or Semi) do you really think countries 9-11 will deliver 6 out of 8 quarterfinalists? hmm... seems a bit too optimistic.

Author: KnallieB
Date: 17-12-2009, 14:58
Edited by: KnallieB
at: 17-12-2009, 15:01

With Galataray, Sporting, Dinamo Bucuresti, CFR Cluj and Shakthar Donetsk losing and only wins for Nacional, Heerenveen and PSV, Holland did very well last night. Let's hope they get 2 wins tonight as well.

Current standings 6-11:
6 Russia 42.458 2/6
7 Ukraine 39.350 1/5
8 Romania 38.991 3/6
9 Netherlands 35.546 3/6
10 Portugal 35.462 3/6
11 Turkey 33.650 2/5

I don't think Netherlands/Portugal/Turkey will catch up to Romania or higher this year, but I'm secretly looking to the years ahead as well of course, so i'm not rooting for any Russian or Ukranian teams.

I think there's only 1 battle here, and that's for 9th place. It's a very close race between Portugal and Holland. As was said before, it will depend on the draw.

For Porto: Porto will have a chance if they draw Fiorentina/Bordeaux/Sevilla in CL. Obviously i'm hoping for a Spanish or English side to draw Porto

For Ajax/PSV/Sporting/Benfica/Galatasaray/Fenerbahce:
- Teams to avoid: Liverpool, Rubin Kazan, Atletico Madrid, Villareal, Everton. Anyone else everything is possible.
Sporting/Benfica - Liverpool would be nice...

I hope Twente draw either Unirea Urziceni, Salzburg or a direct competitor (Gala/Fener/Benfica/Sporting or even Shakthar/Rubin).
Against anyone else they will have very little chance.

I'm already looking forward to the draw friday!

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: hamlett Date: 17-12-2009, 18:48	There is a big gap between Ukraine/Romania and Netherlands/Portugal, but if ever PSV, Ajax, Benfica or Sporting won the cup, they could climb to 8th, and even 7th place. Imagine Donetsk vs Liverpool, Roma, or Valencia next round. With only one team left, Ukraine's situation is weak.

Author: mulligan
Date: 17-12-2009, 23:19

ok JPV and through my message also 5 from 9-11 for Semis!!!
Of course, it would not be the case but I just wanted to give an indication about the capacity of the teams.

So, after the results, IMO the race still continues between the 3 with a gap not exceeding 1,5 pts. Therefore, the draw seems to have a huge importance in defining the destiny of the final ranking

Btw, Sevilla and Bordeaux would also smash out Porto in my mind

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: Overgame Date: 17-12-2009, 23:33	You know, a team able to reach the semi can win the cup, no matter who they are :p

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: Ricardo Date: 18-12-2009, 11:57	At least it's sure that 9-11 got closer to 6-8 this year, which will especially work out for maybe next year's battle? If RUssia and Ukraine do the same as this year, these 5 countries might end up very close!

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: mulligan Date: 18-12-2009, 13:42	very tricky opponents for Gala and Fener Turkey out of race

Author: KnallieB
Date: 18-12-2009, 14:04

Very bad draw for Holland, all is decided I'm afraid.
Unless the dutch teams perform some kind of miracle Portugal will end ninth. My predictions:

Current standings:
6 Russia 42.458 2/ 6
7 Romania 39.491 1/ 6
8 Ukraine 39.350 1/ 5
9 Portugal 35.796 3/ 6
10 Netherlands 35.713 3/ 6
11 Turkey 34.050 2/ 5

6. Russia
CSKA - Sevilla, 2 points, eliminated
Rubin Kazan - Hapoel, 3 points, Villareal 1 point -> 4 points, eliminated
6 points total -> 43.458

7. Romania
Unirea Urziceni - Liverpool -> 0 points, eliminated
0 points total -> 39.491

8. Ukraine
Shakhtar - Fulham -> 3 points, vs Juve 1 point, eliminated
4 points total -> 40.150

9. Portugal
Porto - Arsenal -> 1 point, eliminated
Benfica - Hertha -> 2 points, vs Marseille 2 point,
Sporting - Everton -> 2 points, vs Atletico 2 points,
Sporting/Benfica could bo go through, or both go out, ill count on one of them going through, so 1 bonus point.
10 points total -> 37.463

10. Netherlands
PSV - Hamburg -> 2 points, vs. Atletic 2 points -> 1 bonus
Ajax - Juventus -> 1 point, eliminated
Twente - Werder Bremen -> 1 point, eliminated
7 points total -> 36.880

11. Turkey
Galatasaray - Atletico -> 1 point, eliminated
Fenerbahce - Lille -> 2 points, vs Liverpool 1 point, eliminated
4 points total -> 34.850

Standings before quarterfinals of 2009/2010 season:
6 Russia 43.458 0/6
7 Ukraine 40.150 0/6
8 Romania 39.491 0/6
9 Portugal 37.463 1/6
10 Netherlands 36.880 1/6
11 Turkey 34.850 0/6

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: hamlett Date: 18-12-2009, 14:08 Edited by: hamlett at: 18-12-2009, 14:11	Hamburg, Bremen and Juventus. Could hardly be worse for Dutch teams. By the way, all 6-11 teams but Kazan are paired with 1-5 teams. Strange, isn't it ?

Re: Battle for 9-11
Author: aetius Date: 18-12-2009, 15:08	very bad draw for holland. maximum 10 points in hand this theason. liverpool - U2 (aka Unirea Urziceni) . very difficult draw for coach petrescu former chelsea player. but i don't bet to liverpool take all points ( just remember U2 takes 1 point from VFB , 2 points to SEVilla and 3 coeff points to Rangers !!!). lille -fenerbahce => fenerbahce qualify with 3 points.