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| Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: scapulaire24
Date: 30-06-2009, 09:43 Edited by: scapulaire24 at: 30-06-2009, 09:56 | Stats for the last five seasons. Percent to reach a stage according to the Pot Pot 1 4th (out) 2,50% 3rd (EL) 2,50% Round of 16 95,00% Quarters 57,50% Semi-final 40,00% Final 25,00% Winner 12,50% Pot 2 4th (out) 15,00% 3rd (EL) 15,00% Round of 16 70,00% Quarters 32,50% Semi-final 7,50% Final 0,00% Winner 0,00% Pot 3 4th (out) 37,50% 3rd (EL) 37,50% Round of 16 25,00% Quarters 7,50% Semi-final 2,50% Final 0,00% Winner 0,00% Pot 4 4th (out) 45,00% 3rd (EL) 45,00% Round of 16 10,00% Quarters 2,50% Semi-final 0,00% Final 0,00% Winner 0,00% Only one team of Pot 1 finish 4th of group stage. Only one again finish 3rd. Only one team of Pot 3 reach semi-final.(and it was Chelsea!) and only one team of Pot 4 reach quarters. In the last 3 years, only one team of Pot 2 reach semi-final. No more surprises in CL |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 30-06-2009, 10:53 | And there will be less surprises with the new system, as the 5 qualifiying champions will certainly not have all been there when all the 10(15?) non-champions qualifiers would be in the same qualification-competition. I expect less surprises from the pot-4 teams, leading automatically to less surprises in pot 2 & 3 (in pot 1 there are hardly any surprises anymore as have been shown above  ) |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: amirbachar
Date: 30-06-2009, 13:56 Edited by: amirbachar at: 30-06-2009, 13:56 | Ricardo, it would lead to more surprises in pots 2-3, because everything could be determined in the 2 matches between them. |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Lyonnais
Date: 30-06-2009, 14:11 | The pot-1 team who finished 4th of their group was Manchester United I think but who was the pot-4 team which reached the quarters? Fenerbahce? |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: AlanK
Date: 30-06-2009, 14:33 | Fenerbahce was indeed in pot 4 and reached the quarterfinals by beating Sevilla on penalties in 2007-2008. |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Axel
Date: 30-06-2009, 20:16 | thanks @scapulaire24! according to your stats, the percentage distribution for reached positions and stages (which means for example: 100% of all winners came from pot1 before and so on): 4th (out): 45,0% Pot4 / 37,5% Pot3 / 15,0% Pot2 / 2,5% Pot1 |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: ssrree
Date: 26-07-2009, 20:51 | I think this year will be more soprise in CL/GS than last few years. From pot 1 Sevilla and Arsenal can be elimineted from the next round,from pot 2 Sporting and Alkmar! Who can pass from pot 3 and pot 4? Probably Dinamo Kijev,Wolfsburg and Rubin,but all anothers clubs has chance too.I hope we will watch interesting season with many soprise in EL! |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Overgame
Date: 26-07-2009, 22:40 | You are thinking too much ... Everything is based on the draws, and nothing else. And Sporting is not qualified yet, they have TWO rounds to pass. And the last time SEvilla played the CLGS, they won their group ... |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: ssrree
Date: 27-07-2009, 14:14 | Last time Sevilla was much stronger than now.Maybe they can pass group now too,but it will be very defecult. I expecting from 3 champions, from 3th and 4th pot,Dinamo Kijev,Wolfsburg and Rubin to pass group,they are strong,but it will also depend about draw. |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Othello
Date: 27-07-2009, 19:58 | First of all - very interesting statistic. As to surprises I think that the new system will lead to even fewer surprises (if possible). The reason being that clubs in pot 3 & 4 will be weaker with the 5 spots allocated to contries 13-51, whereas pot 1 & 2 remains more or less unchanged. |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Overgame
Date: 27-07-2009, 20:16 | Well, not necessary, we will see in a few years. Some good teams could play the EL 2-3 times and collect enough points to sneak a spot in pot B or even A (Sevilla) and change the seeding. And the pot3 will not be really different, while the 4th will be. If one team end with 0 points, there is more chance for the pot3 team to sneak a win and ends 2nd. Again, we will see in a few years  |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Laudrup1
Date: 28-07-2009, 10:46 | Interesting statistics. Shows it pays to be a pot1 team then! It's not too surprising to see that it's hit or miss for pot two and three teams and pot 4 teams struggle more often. There's usually one anomoly each year (like Fener the year they did really well) but in general the big teams, no matter how the draw, seeding or whatever options for Uefa there are, make the most of the competitions... |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Axel
Date: 28-07-2009, 19:30 Edited by: Axel at: 28-07-2009, 19:33 | Sorry, but I think following stats are correct. (reaching 2nd Group Stage(99/00-02/03) equals reaching Round of 16) 04/05-08/09 99/00-03/04 |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Cirdan
Date: 28-07-2009, 21:00 | Ah, nice to have prove that the CL does get more predictable  But could you have a look again at the distributen for R of 16 losers and onwards? they are the same for both time periods, which has to be wrong, I think you made a c&p mistake there. |
| Re: Chances to reach KO round according to Pot. | |
| Author: Axel
Date: 30-07-2009, 21:42 | Thanks for your hint. Okay. I did several corrections. I checked twice. And now I hope these are the right numbers: (reaching 2nd Group Stage(99/00-02/03) equals reaching Round of 16) |