Forum

xml	No replies possible in the archive

Author: badgerboy
Date: 20-03-2009, 15:58

A bit of a look at overall ranking performance over the past 12 seasons of the top 30 countries in the rankings.

Why 12 seasons? First because the 97-98 country ranking was the first one used for the fully expanded Champions League format. Second - by then - the vast majority of "new countries" had five years worth of performance to count for the rankings.

1. Spain

Average 12 year ranking position 1.416
Average 5 year ranking position 1.400
Highest position 1st (8 years)
Lowest position 3rd (1997-98)
Current position 2nd

A top two team without question.

2. Italy

Average 12 year ranking position 2.250
Average 5 year ranking position 2.800
Highest position 1st (1997-98 + 1998-99)
Lowest position 3rd (5 years)
Current position 3rd

No. 1 at the start of the period but now clearly No. 3 (3rd in 5 of the last 6 rankings).

3. England

Average 12 year ranking position 3.083
Average 5 year ranking position 1.800
Highest position 1st (2007-08 + 2008-09)
Lowest position 6th (1997-98 + 1998-99)
Current position 1st

Overall ranking is clearly brought down by the fact that English football was still recovering from their ban at the start of the period. Incredible now to think that it took so long for England to get back to the top 3 - 11 years after the ban was lifted - 7 with 5 years of performance to count.

4. Germany

Average 12 year ranking position 4.000
Average 5 year ranking position 4.800
Highest position 2nd (1997-98)
Lowest position 5th (4 years)
Current position 4th

Started the period as a clear top three country - which was historically where they firmly belonged too (from when rankings began to 1995 they also held a top 3 position). 4th looks about right for them now & anything more extreme than 3rd or 5th seems very unlikely.

5. France

Average 12 year ranking position 4.416
Average 5 year ranking position 4.200
Highest position 4th (7 years)
Lowest position 5th (5 years)
Current position 5th

Almost zero variation & not much foreseen in the near future. The first 19 years of coefficients were much more fun for them. As low as 15th in 1986 but reaching the heady heights of 2nd from 1993 to 1996.

6. Netherlands

Average 12 year ranking position 6.916
Average 5 year ranking position 7.600
Highest position 5th (1997-98 + 1998-99)
Lowest position 9th (2007-08)
Current position 7th

They might have had their "peak" at the start of the period but the Dutch have still managed to retain a top 10 position performing with the "six team handicap" for 10 full seasons. Not even Portugal have been able to match this. Hats off to the Dutch. I rather hope they can return to a top 9 position in the 2009-10 ranking (currently 10th).

7. Portugal

Average 12 year ranking position 7.833
Average 5 year ranking position 7.200
Highest position 6th (4 years)
Lowest position 10th (3 years)
Current position 10th

Another admirably consistent performer though they did benefit (compared to the Dutch) from four "4 team years" from 2000-01 to 2004-05. This period was also the one where they achieved their best performances - ensuring maximum coefficient benefit from their successes. Unquestionably a top 8 country at present but it will be interesting to see if UEFA's changes produce one or more sustained challengers to this position.

8. Greece

Average 12 year ranking position 9.083
Average 5 year ranking position 11.400
Highest position 6th (2001-02 + 2002-03)
Lowest position 15th (2006-07)
Current position 12th

A slightly higher average than I expected. This includes 8 years performing with 6 teams during which the Greeks overall didn't pull up too many trees. Maybe this just highlights the fact that it isn't (or wasn't?) as tough as you might think to sustain a fairly high position for a relatively lengthy period.

My idea is that the 12 year ranking gives a more genuine indication of where a country "belongs" in the rankings excluding any actual change in quality of a country's football

In other words - the rankings sometimes fluctuate quite a bit purely down to the number of teams a country has but over the longer period this issue should even out. What then remains is the interesting question of whether any current ranking that differs from the average is down to a genuine improvement or decline in the overall quality of a country's domestic football.

I talk about this here not because I think Greece are declining now. The question here is perhaps whether other countries have "improved more" or perhaps "improved while Greece has stood still"?

But historically Greece is one clear example (Turkey is another) of a country where the rankings show an overall improvement. Turkey were never in the top 10 before 1995 - the first time they even made the top 20 was 1992 & Greece not before 1996 - they reached as high as 16th for the first time ever in 1992. In comparison neither country has been outside the top 15 in any of the past 12 seasons.

More to follow...

Author: badgerboy
Date: 20-03-2009, 17:23

9. Russia

Average 12 year ranking position 10.583
Average 5 year ranking position 8.600
Highest position 6th (2007-08 + 2008-09)
Lowest position 21st (2003-04)
Current position 6th

The average 12 year ranking of the 9th ranked country overall confirms the view that there aren't 10 countries who "belong in the top 10".

However I would tentatively suggest that Russia is another example of a country where the football is actually improving. The USSR used to "belong" in the top 10 and probably Russia do again now. The next few years should confirm - or perhaps deny (?) this theory. The last time Russia had to play with six teams they crashed to 18th place & then 21st. Unless the credit crunch really affects things there I can't see any kind of real crash this time.

10. Turkey

Average 12 year ranking position 11.333
Average 5 year ranking position 12.400
Highest position 7th (2000-01)
Lowest position 15th (2005-06)
Current position 11th

Consistently in the top 15 & on average a top 13 side (important from next year). Despite their inability to sustain a top 10 spot in the past (had two years with 6 teams) I'm inclined to think that their chances of doing better with more teams are increasing - and that they are better placed than most to sustain 5 teams from next season.

11. Czech Republic

Average 12 year ranking position 11.833
Average 5 year ranking position 14.400
Highest position 8th (1999-2000)
Lowest position 18th (2008-09)
Current position 18th

Sadly the fact that this is the first time the Czechs have fallen out of the top 15 backs up what I've been reading regarding the inability of their top clubs to retain their best players for more than a season. I'd like to be wrong but I think things are going to get worse before they get better.

12. Ukraine

Average 12 year ranking position 13.166
Average 5 year ranking position 12.000
Highest position 9th (2008-09) (and I know it might get better)
Lowest position 17th (1997-98)
Current position 12th

Seemingly very much on the up & clearly "belong" in at least the top 12. Have already shown that they have at least two teams in addition to their "big two" who can perform creditably in Europe - Metalist this year after Dnipro a few years back. Probably wont do it every year but seem to be more firmly in the running for a top 9 spot - with Turkey & perhaps Greece also challenging the "traditional position" of Netherlands & Portugal - than I had previously thought.

13=. Belgium

Average 12 year ranking position 13.666
Average 5 year ranking position 12.000
Highest position 9th (2004-05)
Lowest position 20th (1997-98)
Current position 14th

Another country that provides ample evidence of a serious change in quality over time. Unfortunately for them - as Turkey & Greece rise they have fallen. Top 3 at the start of ranking history - always top 7 (mostly top 5) until 1994 & first out of the top 10 in 1997. Standard were a breath of fresh air this year but overall - until more evidence of improvement is forthcoming - 12th is probably as high as they can expect to be for a while & retaining a top place is their real challenge.

13=. Scotland

Average 12 year ranking position 13.666
Average 5 year ranking position 10.000
Highest position 9th (2002-03)
Lowest position 26th (1997-98)
Current position 13th

Wow. I hadn't realised - or perhaps had forgotten - quite how low Scotland fell in the rankings just over a decade ago. I can't see them falling that far again but then I can also see them having a tougher job than Belgium holding their top 15 position. I know Aberdeen got through the UEFA Cup groups last year - but not with the sort of campaign that pulls in lots of points. If Celtic & Rangers are at the top of their game regularly enough they might do enough to stay where they are despite the other 3 teams - but at the moment even the level of the top two seems to be falling...

15. Switzerland

Average 12 year ranking position 15.666
Average 5 year ranking position 16.600
Highest position 13th (2002-03 + 2003-04)
Lowest position 19th (2004-05)
Current position 15th

Just held the 15th spot this year and that's where the 12 year ranking suggests they should be. Nothing obvious to suggest they are likely to rise much further (except perhaps the fact that countries above might fall past them). Their top teams don't seem particularly great but then there probably isn't much between their 2nd & 5th teams - so the extra teams might increase their chances of one going on a run.

16. Austria

Average 12 year ranking position 16.416
Average 5 year ranking position 19.200
Highest position 11th (1997-98 + 1998-99)
Lowest position 22nd (2006-07)
Current position 20th

Currently at a pretty low ebb. To be honest I'd be inclined to put Austrian football in the same basket as Swiss football & have serious difficulty telling the two apart when I came to pull them out. Historically Austria was stronger - a top 10 country 5 times while Switzerland never reached those heights. On the other hand Switzerland seems to be doing slightly better right now. I'd need more "inside info" to know why as - if you put the best 6 Austrian teams in a league with the top six Swiss - I wouldn't have a clue who would come out on top. Could rise a bit simply because they have more scope to do so than other similar countries.

17. Norway

Average 12 year ranking position 16.750
Average 5 year ranking position 18.800
Highest position 10th (1997-98)
Lowest position 20th (2002-03 + 2004-05)
Current position 19th

Another "even league" though Rosenborg are streets ahead of all the other teams when it comes to European performance. 10th is their best ever ranking position but top 15 is a realistic target.

18. Romania

Average 12 year ranking position 18.416
Average 5 year ranking position 11.400
Highest position 7th (2006-07 + 2007-08)
Lowest position 26th (2001-02,2002-03 & 2003-04)
Current position 8th

Everyone here knows "Romania's story" already. 8 seasons ranked 20th or lower plus the performance of the past two seasons suggests an extended stay in even the top 15 after their high scores go is unlikely. They might even have work to do to stay there for the 2010-11 ranking. The next three seasons (maybe four) will be a good opportunity for more Romanian teams to gain European experience - lets hope one or two take it & this helps the country "grow" in the longer term.

19. Denmark

Average 12 year ranking position 19.583
Average 5 year ranking position 20.400
Highest position 12th (1998-99)
Lowest position 24th (2002-03)
Current position 16th

My personal perception is of a country "on the rise" but given that the last time they rose - to 12th (their highest ever ranking) they descended very rapidly again - perhaps my perception is wrong & this fluctuation is just what Denmark does? I expect them to be in or around at least the top 15 for a while but this is another definite: real improvement or purely the affect of the ranking/number of teams question.

20. Poland

Average 12 year ranking position 20.333
Average 5 year ranking position 22.800
Highest position 16th (2003-04)
Lowest position 26th (2008-09)
Current position 26th

Strange that Poland should be at it's lowest ebb ranking wise after it's first season of "flickering promise" in a long time. With apparent chaos in it's domestic football currently offsetting any potential boon from Euro 2012 investments - it looks like a long road back.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 20-03-2009, 18:13

21. Israel

Average 12 year ranking position 20.916
Average 5 year ranking position 19.400
Highest position 15th (2003-04)
Lowest position 27th (1997-98 + 1998-99)
Current position 22nd

Made it to 15th once so maybe they can do it again. Nothing obvious to suggest they should expect anything much better than a place in the top 20 though. And with attempts to invest heavily in Beitar having apparently failed this is unlikely to change soon.

22. Serbia

Average 10 year ranking position 21.200
Average 5 year ranking position 20.000
Highest position 17th (2004-05)
Lowest position 28th (2000-01)
Current position 21st

Yugoslavia were a top 10 country. Since the split - but with more to do with financial changes in the European football landscape - it's constituent parts have struggled. Slightly likely to fall than rise & in any case - now that position 21 no longer matters - any significant rise seems extremely unlikely.

23. Croatia

Average 12 year ranking position 21.333
Average 5 year ranking position 25.400
Highest position 13th (1997-98 + 1998-99)
Lowest position 27th (2007-08 + 2008-09)
Current position 27th

Unfortunately another example of steady decline. You'd hope they can't fall any further but then you look at Hungary & wonder. At least a two horse race in the domestic league for the first time in ages is a promising sign.

24. Bulgaria

Average 12 year ranking position 23.000
Average 5 year ranking position 17.600
Highest position 16th (2006-07)
Lowest position 33rd (1997-98)
Current position 17th

Another case of: "I had no idea they had sunk so low at the start of the decade". This makes their current position all the more commendable. Unfortunately - as far as I can tell - their domestic football is closer to the profile of that of "falling nations" - one or two "decent level" teams but the league as a whole unable to retain it's stars much after breakfast. I'd therefore be surprised (all be it pleasantly) if they were challenging for 15th in future years rather than falling out of the top 20.

25. Sweden

Average 12 year ranking position 23.250
Average 5 year ranking position 25.400
Highest position 19th (1998-99 + 2000-01)
Lowest position 28th (2006-07)
Current position 24th

Another country I perhaps falsely perceive as being "on the rise". Maybe I'm fooled by the number of their top level teams to have appeared in Europe - quite a few with distinction in the past. The fact that I read that Swedish clubs are leaking their best players even to the other Scandinavian leagues - suggests my impression is indeed false.

26. Slovakia

Average 12 year ranking position 24.916
Average 5 year ranking position 25.600
Highest position 21st (1997-98)
Lowest position 27th (2003-04, 2004-05 & 2005-06)
Current position 25th

A very steady performer at it's level. Nothing much to suggest this level is going to change anytime soon but it is interesting to see two old European names - Slovan Bratislava & Spartak Trnava doing so well in the domestic league. If this is because these teams have gone up a level - rather than the recent "powers" - Zilina & Artmedia - declining - they might at least sustain their place in the top 25.

27. Hungary

Average 12 year ranking position 25.083
Average 5 year ranking position 26.600
Highest position 19th (1997-98)
Lowest position 35th (2008-09)
Current position 35th

An apparently terminal - & rather tragic - decline. And with four years in a row scoring a coefficient of 1.000 & 4.166 to go next year it really can get worse before it gets better. If domestic league football in some othe European countries seems to be in decline then I don't know what word to use to describe the situation in Hungary.

Hope for the future? Well Ferencvaros are at the top of their second division group so might be coming back. And they have some investment from the same guy who owns Sheffield United. Otherwise it's just a case of looking for the early European results each year & hoping they will be better...

28. Cyprus

Average 12 year ranking position 27.250
Average 5 year ranking position 27.000
Highest position 23rd (2008-09)
Lowest position 29th (4 seasons)
Current position 23rd

Higher than they've ever been following Anorthosis Famagusta's wonderful performance this year. One hit wonders? Anyone behind Anorthosis to back them up? Time will tell but I would suggest that some of the countries from above will also need to be falling fast if it's going to get much better.

29. Slovenia

Average 12 year ranking position 28.416
Average 5 year ranking position 29.400
Highest position 26th (1999-2000)
Lowest position 32nd (2008-09)
Current position 32nd

Seem to have reached their moderate peak & to be heading down the other side.

30. Finland

Average 12 year ranking position 30.833
Average 5 year ranking position 30.800
Highest position 28th (2008-09)
Lowest position 33rd (2006-07)
Current position 28th

Currently at their 12 year peak. Obviously worse than at least 95% of the countries above them though & presumably better than most below.

The Rest

Only 7 countries not listed above have been in the top 30 of the country ranking in the past 12 years.

Georgia were as high as 24th at the start of the period but have been out of the top 30 for the past 8 seasons & their current 38 is their lowest ebb.

Belarus were 29th at the start of the period - but had fallen to 40th before BATE's exploits this year lifted them to 33rd.

Iceland were 30th at the start of the period but have shown since that mid-30s is about right for them.

Moldova had one year at 30 (2004-05) but - again - mid 30's seems about right.

Bosnia have only had five full years to count for their ranking for the past 7 seasons & were No. 30 for three of them. More "potential" to rise a bit than some in their ranking range perhaps - but as someone pointed out last year their domestic policy of: "you win at your place & I'll win here" doesn't do them any favours.

Lithuania have hit the top 30 (29th) for the first time ever this year. I guess FBK Kaunas' win over Rangers helped.

Ireland. Also in the top 30 for the first time this year. They were 44th in 1998 so that's an impressive rise for the countries around this level. I guess the fact that many of their top clubs turned professional during the period helped though and - unfortunately - serious financial problems & returns to part-time status already seem to be pretty regular.

Author: Cirdan
Date: 21-03-2009, 11:33

@Cyprus:

This season there wasn't only Anorthosis, also the 2 UEFA Cup teams reached the first round proper and have thrown Crvena Zvezda and AEK Athens out on the way there... Schalke and ManCity proved to be too much, but for a sub-top20-country, that stage is already quite a success. Plus, the league also suggests that APOEL & Omonia Nicosia aren't much worse than Anorthosis (in fact, Anorthosis is only 3rd at the moment). I'd predict they'll rise another couple of places... If they get another team into a group stage again, they might even make it into the top 20 for a while. Though I don't know how long they can keep this pace.

Author: Olympiakos
Date: 21-03-2009, 12:43
Edited by: Olympiakos
at: 21-03-2009, 12:45

Well done for the thread!

About Cyprus: Omonia Nicosia (my team) is the most popular and richest club in Cyprus, but suffered from bad managements during this decade. This year they bought 20 players (yes, it's true!) in an effort to re-build the team and bring them back to titles. It seems that the championship is slipping again in the hands of APOEL, however this season is the "preparation" year. The new management appears to be much more serious with more money to invest, they bought some really good players, and yesterday they announced a new coach, Takis Lemonis, who was the coach of Olympiakos last year.
For the records, Anorthosis comes after Omonia and APOEL in terms of titles. So Cyprus might have something to show to europeans in the near future....we will see.

About Greece: In my opinion Greece belongs in top 10 regardless what. The sad thing is that we stood still as badgerboy said, and along with the enormous improvements of countries like Ukraine, Russia and Turkey and the the acceptable improvements of Belgium, Swiss...we even sat on 18th place for some weeks last year, terrible spectacle..but I'm sure it is a matter of time until Greece will return, according to mathematics

The question is when...

Author: Michele
Date: 21-03-2009, 15:34

Re: Denmark

I believe that the current Danish rise is more of a trend than coincidence. We had a very bad year (1.750) for a long period and when we finally got rid of it, we replaced it with an even worse year (1.500). Next year, we will finally get rid of that year and start fulfilling our "real" potential. I'm not saying that Denmark will make performances like this year on a regular basis, but with 3 straight years of more than 5 points, I think that the Danish teams have shown some stability.

And the current five year ranking is also influenced by the fact that we have been "lucky" enough to get two fair play teams, both of which have cost us points (more than 1.500 in total = 2 positions in the country ranking).

So I agree that Denmark should be around 15th place for the next few years. We will lose our two worst years in the next two seasons and should be able to build our ranking points in those two years and with the good results we have achieved lately, we should get some better seedings. Once we start losing the 3 most recent years, however, is the time we will really learn if Denmark can maintain it's current level or whether this is just an excellent couple of years.

Author: Othello
Date: 22-03-2009, 13:07

I think Denmarks real strength is somewhere around 12-15.
Next year the battle for 12-13 will be on after 3 consequtive good years, but Denmark will probably always have to deal with at least 1 bad year out of 5.
Next year Denmark is probably "lucky" enough to earn yet another fairplay spot. And Randers FC, a team with absolutely no international experience in the middle of the table, seems pretty certain of grabbing the spot.