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Author: Lyonnais
Date: 21-09-2008, 19:24

Some country coefficient projections using a basic assumption, that for every game the team with currently the best team coefficient would win (if they play at home) or draw (if they play away). This is very similar with what Ricardo is doing (or used to do).

I already ajusted those projections using last week results (MD1 in the Champions League, and 1st leg of the 1st round of the UEFA Cup. A
At that stage, it's thus still a pure theoritecial projection but I guess that it provides like a benchmark for the following season and I presume that it will interesting to see how projections vary in the up-coming weeks..
All assumptions are described below.

Projected country coefficient for this season

15,188 - Spain
15,000 - England
11,625 - Italy
11,250 - Russia
10,438 - Germany
8,286 - France
7,786 - Portugal
7,750 - Turkey
7,500 - Greece
6,500 - Romania
6,400 - Denmark
6,000 - Cyprus
5,667 - Netherlands
5,625 - Ukraine
4,000 - Belarus
3,875 - Czech Republic
3,750 - Serbia
3,500 - Switzerland
3,500 - Austria
3,500 - Slovakia
3,333 - Croatia
3,250 - Belgium
3,250 - Sweden
3,125 - Scotland
3,100 - Norway
3,000 - Bulgaria
3,000 - Poland
2,833 - Lithuania
2,500 - Ireland
2,167 - Finland
2,000 - Israel
1,833 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
1,333 - Slovenia
1,166 - Latvia
1,166 - Iceland
1,166 - Georgia
1,000 - Hungary
0,833 - Kazakhstan
0,666 - Moldova
0,666 - Azerbaijan
0,666 - Albania
0,500 - Macedonia
0,500 - Montenegro
0,333 - Estonia
0,333 - Wales
0,333 - Northern Ireland
0,333 - Faroe Islands
0,000 - Liechtenstein
0,000 - Armenia
0,000 - Luxembourg
0,000 - Andorra
0,000 - Malta
0,000 - San Marino

Projected Country Ranking at the end of the season

79,499 - England (1)
76,142 - Spain (2)
63,160 - Italy (3)
54,446 - Germany (4) +1
49,125 - Russia (5) +1
47,454 - France (6) -2
42,766 - Romania (7)
38,464 - Netherlands (8) +1
37,463 - Portugal (9) -1
32,975 - Turkey (10) +1
30,850 - Ukraine (11) +1
29,165 - Greece (12) +2
29,125 - Scotland (13) -3
25,850 - Switzerland (14) +2
24,075 - Belgium (15) -2
22,650 - Denmark (16) +3
22,250 - Czech Republic (17) -2
22,000 - Bulgaria (18) -1
19,400 - Norway (19) -1
19,075 - Austria (20)
16,000 - Serbia (21)
15,500 - Israel (22)
15,441 - Sweden (23)
14,749 - Cyprus (24) +4
13,332 - Slovakia (25) -1
11,332 - Croatia (26) +1
10,916 - Poland (27) -2
10,124 - Finland (28) +2
9,999 - Lithuania (29) +4
9,499 - Ireland (30) +5
9,164 - Latvia (31)
9,082 - Slovenia (32) -3
8,666 - Belarus (33) +7
8,665 - Bosnia-Herzegovina (34) -2
8,166 - Hungary (35) -9
6,665 - Iceland (36) +1
6,665 - Moldova (37) -3
6,664 - Georgia (38)
5,500 - Liechtenstein (39)
5,165 - Macedonia (40) -4
4,498 - Azerbaijan (41) +1
4,332 - Estonia (42) -1
3,999 - Albania (43)
3,249 - Kazakhstan (44) +1
2,999 - Armenia (45) -1
2,331 - Wales (46) +1
2,165 - Northern Ireland (47) -1
2,165 - Faroe Islands (48)
1,332 - Luxembourg (49)
1,000 - Montenegro (50) +2
0,500 - Andorra (51)
0,499 - Malta (52) -2
0,250 - San Marino (53)

So, as expected, the most interesting battle so far is the 5th place* between France and Russia (with Russia having the advantage of having 4 teams only, among them 3 experienced ones who could make a good European campaign).
* although France was 4th at the end of last season, Germany became 4th at the start of this season when the 2004 coefficients were erased.

Assumptions

Champions League

Basic Asumptions:
- Group stage - At the beginning of the competition,
Pot 1 team is expected to get 12 pts (3 wins at home, 3 draws away)
Pot 2 team is expected to get 9 pts (2-3-1)
Pot 3 team is expected to get 6 pts (1-3-2)
Pot 4 team is epxected to get 3 pts (0-3-3, 3 draws at home, 3 losses away)
- Group winners are expected to qualify to the quarters (1 win + 1 draw in the Last 16)
- From the quarters, the best coefficient is expected to win the KO game (1 win + 1 draw)

Update after MD1 - Changes in Group ranking:

Group C: Shakthar take the 3rd place at the expense of Basel and thus qualify to the UEFA Cup
Group D: Atletico take the 3rd place at the expense of Marseille and thus qualify to the UEFA Cup
Group F: Bayern become group winners and thus qualify to the quarters; Lyon become runner-up and are eliminated in the Last 16
Note: in case of tie, e.g. group A where 3 teams (Roma, Bordeaux, Cluj) would end up with 6 pts, I kept the original seeding for ranking purposes.

Final outcome:
Chelsea - Inter - Barcelona - Liverpool - Man. U - Bayern - Arsenal - Real (all group winners) in the quarters; Chelsea, Barcelona, Liverpool & Arsenal (best coefficients) in semis; Liverpool defeating Chelsea in final.

UEFA Cup

Basic assumptions:
- All seeded teams go through the group stage
- the 8 best coefficients win their group (2 wins + 2 draws), the 8 following coefficient finish second (2-1-1) and the 8 following finish third (1-2-1); the worst 16 coefficients are eliminated (1-1-2 for the 4th team, 0-2-2 for the 5th team).
- Last 32: group winners all go through (1 win + 1 draw); the group runners-up meet the 8 teams from the CL, the 8 best coefficients go through (1 win + 1 draw).
- Last 16 and following rounds: the best coefficient goes through (1 win + 1 draw at every stage).

Update after UCR1 - 1st leg:
- all seeded teams who lost away or made a draw at home are still expected to go through
- however, Feyenoord and Hapoel Tel-Aviv both defeated at home are expected to be eliminated (draw away)

Final outcome:
Milan - Sevilla - Valencia - Benfica - Schalke - Zenit - CSKA Moscow and Steaua are expected to go to the quarters; Milan, Sevilla, Valencia and Benfica in semis and Milan defeating Sevilla in final.

More to follow with the breakdown by country.

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 21-09-2008, 20:12

England - 135 pts - 9 teams - 15.000

Liverpool - 28.5 pts - CL winner
Chelsea - 24.0 pts - CL final
Arsenal - 23.0 pts - CL semi
Man. United - 16.0 pts - CL quarters
Tottenham - 13.0 pts - UC Last 16
Man. City - 10.0 pts - UC Group Stage
Everton - 8.0 pts - UC Last 32
Aston Villa - 7.5 pts - UC Group Stage
Portsmouth - 5.0 pts - UC Group Stage

The genral performance of English clubs looks like pretty much under-estimated but the projection also relies on 3 English semi-finalists in the Champions League (which is certainly possible but doesn't allow any mistake).

Spain - 121.5 pts - 8 teams - 15.188

Sevilla - 24.0 pts - UC Final
Barcelona - 22.0 pts - CL semi
Valencia - 22.0 pts - UC semi
Real - 17.0 pts - CL quarter
Villareal - 12.0 pts - CL Last 16
Atletico - 10.0 pts - UC Last 32
Deportivo - 9.5 pts - UC Last 32
Santander - 5.0 pts - UC Group stage

Pretty much like England. A team like Atletico could do much better than the projection but on the other hand, Spain are expected to get 3 semi-finalists in the 2 cups.

Italy - 93 pts - 8 teams - 11.625

Milan - 26.0 pts - UC winner
Inter - 18.0 pts - CL quarters
Juventus - 12.5 pts - CL Last 16
Roma - 9.0 pts - CL Last 16
Udinese - 9.0 pts - UC Last 32
Fiorentina - 8.5 pts - CL Group Stage
Sampdoria - 6.0 pts - UC Group Stage
Napoli - 4.0 pts - UC 1st round

To my opinion, there is some room for improvement for Italy (Fiorentina, Napoli if they go to group stage).

Germany - 83.5 pts - 8 teams - 10.438

Schalke - 19.0 pts - UC Quarters
Bayern - 16.0 pts - CL Quarters
Stuttgart - 15.0 pts - UC Last 16
Hamburg - 12.0 pts - UC Last 16
Werder - 10.0 pts - CL Last 16
Hertha - 9.5 pts - UC Group Stage
Wolfsburg - 2.0 pts - UC 1st round
Dortmund - 0.0 pt - UC 1st round

Reasonable projection for Germany. I wouldn't be surprised if they finally do better than this (namely Hertha and Wolfsburg)

Russia - 45 pts - 4 teams - 11.250

CSKA - 18.0 pts - UC Quarters
Zenit - 16.0 pts - UC Quarters
Spartak - 9.0 pts - UC Last 32
FC Moscow - 2.0 pts - UC 1st round

Achievable objective for Russia.

France - 58 pts - 7 teams - 8.286

Lyon - 12.0 pts - CL Last 16
Bordeaux - 12.0 pts - UC Last 16
Marseille - 9.0 pts - CL Group Stage
Paris - 9.0 pts - UC Last 32
Rennes - 6.0 pts - UC Group stage
Nancy - 5.0 pts - UC Group stage
St Etienne - 5.0 pts - UC Group stage

Rather projection for France (hopefully the pessimistic scenario). Marseille have the means to do better than being 4th of their group while one might can expect than more than 1 team go out from the UEFA Cup Group Stage.

Romania - 45.5 pts - 7 teams - 6.500

Steaua - 16.5 pts - UC Quarters
Cluj - 8.0 pts - CL Group Stage
Rapid - 8.0 pts - UC Last 32
Dinamo - 7.0 pts - UC Last 32
Vaslui - 4.0 pts - UC 1st round
Unirea - 2.0 pts - UC 1st round
Timisoara - 0.0 pt - UC 1st round

To my opinion, depends a lot on the performance of Steaua (1/3 of total points) but could do better in the UEFA Cup.

Netherlands - 34 pts - 6 teams - 5.667

Ajax - 13.0 pts - UC Last 16
PSV - 9.0 pts - CL Last 16
Heerenveen - 8.0 pts - UC Last 32
NEC - 2.0 pts - UC 1st round
Feyenoord - 1.0 pt - UC 1st round
Twente - 1.0 pt - UC 1st round

Might be a bit optimistic for PSV, but NEC and/or Twente can definitely qualify to the group stage.

Portugal - 54.5 pts - 7 teams - 7.786

Benfica - 20.0 pts - UC semis
Porto - 11.0 pts - CL Last 16
Sporting - 11.0 pts - CL Last 16
Braga - 10.0 pts - UC Last 32
Guimaraes - 1.5 pt - UC 1st round
Setubal - 1.0 pts - UC 1st round
Maritimo - 0.0 pt - UC 1st round

Big question mark about Benfica - will they be able to reverse the situation vs. Napoli?

Turkey - 31 pts - 4 teams - 7.750

Fenerbahce - 12.5 pts - UC Last 32
Besiktas - 11.0 pts - UC Last 32
Galatasaray - 7.5 pts - UC Group Stage
Kayserispor - 0.0 pts - UC 1st round

Re: Country Coefficients projections
Author: Lyonnais Date: 21-09-2008, 20:13	The genral performance of English clubs looks like pretty much under-estimated read - "in the UEFA Cup" sorry, I wasn't able to edit

Author: Cirdan
Date: 22-09-2008, 03:59
Edited by: Cirdan
at: 22-09-2008, 05:22

My opinions:

England: I mostly agree... CL is slightly optimistic, because it's basically the best possible result, the UC is somewhat pessimistic. However it should also be noted that it's possible and not even unlikely that one of Tottenham and Everton will fail (2:2/2:1 at home are not reassuring), which could have quite an effect on the prediction.

Spain: I disagree with you and say that this is an optimistic prediction. It's true that Atlético might make a couple more points, but I would say it's at least as likely that Valencia or Sevilla will disappoint, which evens that out - and then there is Deportivo, who lost 2:0 away and are very likely to fail to reach group stage, while according to your rules, they'll reach 32.

Italy: Unfortunately, I agree with you, this is rather pessimistic. The only team that might produce significantly less than expected is Milan - if they fail in earlier knock-out stages (they are the strongest team in UC, but in ko-matches, upsets happen). All other teams are very unlikely to make much less points than expected, and some will probably make more. Btw, that's unfortunate because it doesn't look like we'll get a fight for #3 in the next season(s) that I was hoping for.

Germany: I mostly agree, this should be the expactation... it looks like Hamburg might fail early, on the other hand, Wolfsburg is much stronger than their seeding suggests. If both make it to the next round, the expactations should go 1-2 points up (though they probably won't in these predictions since Wolfsburgs coef is low), if both fail, they go down 2 points, so a lot can happen ^^

Russia: I think this is a pretty optimistic view. Of course everything is archievable, Spartak even might perform better than predicted, but especially CSKA looks a bit over the top... not impossible, but very optimistic.

France: Reasonable prediction, but for each team, it's pretty much the minimum. Of course Rennes, or less likely Nancy might fail in UCR1, but Marseilles CL group is really unpredictable, and like you said, in the end probably more than just one team will make it out of the groups.

Romania: Impossible to tell at this point, because there is so much still at stake in UCR1. Only Timisoara seems decided, 1:2 at home probably means they are out. Both seeded teams lost 1:0 away, the other 2 unseeded teams 0:0 away, those 4 ties can all end up either way. I agree that the prediction for Steaua is very optimistic, though, they had bad luck with their CL group and I don't think they'll even make it to the UC.

Netherlands: Like Romania, a lot is still open in the UEFA Cup (Herenveen, NEC, Twente), overall I think it's a rather pessimistic prediction, I expect them to do better in the end.

Portugal: No matter if they manage to beat Napoli: I'd bet that Benfica will not make it to the semis. For all other teams, those should be the minimum expectations, but due to Benfica alone, I think they'll end up with less points than that.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 22-09-2008, 09:31

Some very nice numbers here.

I can already see an awful lot of teams for whom I perceive the projections as either far too high or far too low - but it will be interesting to see how they average out over the season.

For example I agree with Cirdan that both Everton & Tottenham look vulnerable at this stage. If both were to fall it would be tough for England to hit their target but with four teams in the group stage & England (I believe) having a 100% record of teams qualifying to the KO rounds once they've made the groups I think they would make up any shortfall. Then again I'm not expecting quite such a good Champions League season - I don't believe English clubs are that dominant - over the top Italian & Spanish clubs especially - that they can't expect some reverses in the tough last 16 match-ups that usually occur. Paradoxically Liverpool or Arsenal could "rescue the coefficient" if one of them were to drop out early & take on Milan in the UEFA Cup. (Personally I'd prefer to see 4 English teams in the last 16 & take a coefficient beating from Spain though).

The "UEFA Cup factor" could also be very significant for other countries too. Take Portugal as an excellent example. Semi-finals of the UEFA Cup does indeed seem a bit optimistic for Benfica but it's not that unlikely that Porto or Sporting (or both?) could drop down into the UEFA Cup & go quite a long way - picking up far more points in the spring than a last 16 CL exit would suggest.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 22-09-2008, 13:11

"This is very similar with what Ricardo is doing (or used to do)."

I am still doing this. It can be found at the (new) location of my site:www.uclpredictions.ucoz.com I haven't yet included last week resutls, but I tend do change qualifying team for KO-rounds only after the second leg(e.g. Feyenoord still in).
I haven't got my numbers with me now (I will check tonight

), but I guess they will be about the same, though I think what you wrote here about hte points in GS is not correct: groupwinners get 12, yes, but that's 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 bonus points!,ther's only 2 pts. for a win. so you get 12-10-8-6 in CL-GS(including bonuspoints!) in UC you get 6-5-4-3-2 pts.
At my site I also have a graphical view of the country-coefficient prediction changing through the season, for now we have seen Danmark and Belarus rising, Belgium, Scotland going down, etc. After next round also big chances will be shown: the missing or reaching the UC-GS changes quit something....

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 22-09-2008, 14:04

I think what you wrote here about hte points in GS is not correct: groupwinners get 12, yes, but that's 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 bonus points!,ther's only 2 pts. for a win. so you get 12-10-8-6 in CL-GS(including bonuspoints!) in UC you get 6-5-4-3-2 pts.

I think that we speak about 2 different things.
- yes, for coefficient calculations purposes, it's just 2 points per win (and this was used for this projection).
- however, to be able to project the ranking of the group, you have to take into account "real" numbers (i.e. 3 points per win).

We might have some minor differences for the CL Last 16. As far as I remember, you expect the 8 best coefficients to go through (regardless of their position in the groups) whereas I assumed that only group winners would go through. Both can be defended I presume.

At that stage, this doesn't create much difference as Lyon are the only ones who are challenged for the 1st place, but it could create bigger descrepancies after a couple of games.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 22-09-2008, 16:23

Lyonnais,
I actualy use the same assumptions: groupwinners to go through in CL,in UC it is more difficult groupwinners to go through and I let highest UC-2 coefficient meet lowest CL-3 coefficient, turning to worst UC-2 coefficient meeting best CL-3 coefficient. Of these meetings best coefficient is through

And I agree that for group-ranking you need the 3pts for a win. It all looks very familiar and am curious if I can find any difference

, probably they are there because I am more conservative

Author: Ricardo
Date: 22-09-2008, 23:28

Hi Lyonnais, I have looked again at my own results and there are some differences in quit some countries. Because you say you have Liverpool winning, whil I have Chelsea I realise that I use teamranking08, while you are using the teamranking'09'. That might cause some differences. Further it seems a bit the same, with me the fight between Russia and France is a bit closer, and only recently Russia is in advance, mainly because Atletico passed Marseille in the CL...

I'm waiting for next week to show some big steps......

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 23-09-2008, 09:36

Thanks Ricardo for your feed-back. Yes, true that I used the current (2009) team ranking. Had I paid attention to this, I would have rather used the 2008 team coefficient, but on the other hand, it might be a bit more up-to-date.

Otherwise, did you keep your original calculations (made before the QRs). This would be like the theoretical coefficients for the year and it would be interesting to see at the end of the season which countries over- or under-performed (compared to the benchmark).

Re: Country Coefficients projections
Author: Ricardo Date: 23-09-2008, 10:58	Yes, I saved them. That's how I make the graphic: I save the predictions for each country after each match-week. The ones at the beginning have even a predicted Intertotowinner that influences the end result.

Re: Country Coefficients projections
Author: wisla_krakow_fun Date: 23-09-2008, 20:44	I think Poland will finish this season on 22-25 place.

Author: Cirdan
Date: 24-09-2008, 03:45

@Ricardo: How come you have so much less points for Germany? 2.25 points, that are 18 team points... so far, I haven't seen where that could come from, the rankings of 08 and 09 don't seem to differ that much. From the team ranking, you seem to have Bayern out in r2, not qf, but that would only be 4 points, and the rest should be the same (possibly a round earlier for Hamburg + Stuttgart, but even if that's the case it would only make up for 6 more points)

Author: SunnyD
Date: 24-09-2008, 11:37

Lyonnais, nice job. I had also done the same thing at the beginning of the season and have updated it since. My numbers are slightly different than yours but not significantly, and I have not reviewed for possible error for a while.

I agree with you that the battle for fifth is interesting, even if little is at stake in terms of berths. There was another thread going mentioning several other countries for this but Russia was generally not given much chance. If they get their teams through UC1 and into groups they will be in good position.

Another one I find interesting is Belgium - they are hanging onto 15th place, but any more upsets and they could lose this. Given that they are losing so many points next year relative to the countries behind them, one might wonder whether they will make it back into the top 15.

Author: Overgame
Date: 25-09-2008, 00:45

"Another one I find interesting is Belgium - they are hanging onto 15th place, but any more upsets and they could lose this. Given that they are losing so many points next year relative to the countries behind them, one might wonder whether they will make it back into the top 15."

So true, but on the other hand, Standard could save them and give a chance to be 13th

When you trust in them, they lose. When you don't trust, they can do some miracles :p

Re: Country Coefficients projections
Author: Ricardo Date: 26-09-2008, 13:09	@Cirdan, I will try to find that out. tonight or later this weekend...

Author: Ricardo
Date: 26-09-2008, 17:42

Bayern: 2nd in CL group -> 1/8 final 12 pts.
Bremen: 2nd in CL group -> 1/8 final 11 pts.
Schalke: UC 1/4 fin 18 pts.
HSV: UC 1/8 fin 12 pts.
Wolfsburg:UC R1 2 pts
Dortmund: UC R1 1 pt.
Stuttgart: UC 1/8 fin 15 pts.
Hertha: UC GS-4th 9.5 pts.

Which is a total of.. 80.5/8 = 10.063. And not 8.188

So Thank you Cirdan, you have found an error in my sheets.
It appeared that Stuttgart was not taken into account.

Author: putzeijs
Date: 29-09-2008, 23:55
Edited by: putzeijs
at: 29-09-2008, 23:55

I use other assumptions, buth come to a rather familiar result.
only change in top 10 is France 5 / Russia 6.

In mine ranking based assumption, France gets much more points, and end before Russia. Could be important for the phase the non champions enters the qualifiing for the Champions League.

Starting after Belgium, things look different too.

I also make long term assumptions, and there I see Germany in front of Italy after the season 2009-10 or one year later.
These assumpions were made before I knew of the new ranking system.

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 03-10-2008, 22:57

Updated country projections after MD2 in CL and UCR1
(as per the current system)

Projected country coefficients(season)

15,938 Spain
14,667 England
11,875 Italy
11,000 Russia
10,938 Germany
9,667 Netherlands
7,429 France
7,250 Turkey
7,214 Portugal
6,667 Cyprus
6,375 Ukraine
6,250 Greece
6,200 Denmark
5,833 Slovakia
4,667 Croatia
4,071 Romania
4,000 Belgium
4,000 Poland
4,000 Belarus
3,750 Serbia
3,300 Switzerland
3,125 Czech Republic
3,100 Norway
2,875 Scotland
2,500 Sweden
2,500 Lithuania
2,500 Ireland
2,250 Bulgaria
2,250 Austria
1,833 Finland
1,833 Bosnia-Herzegovina
1,750 Israel
1,333 Slovenia
1,166 Latvia
1,166 Iceland
1,166 Georgia
1,000 Hungary
0,833 Kazakhstan
0,666 Moldova
0,666 Azerbaijan
0,666 Albania
0,500 Macedonia
0,500 Montenegro
0,333 Estonia
0,333 Wales
0,333 Northern Ireland
0,333 Faroe Islands
0,000 Liechtenstein
0,000 Armenia
0,000 Luxembourg
0,000 Andorra
0,000 Malta
0,000 San Marino

Projected country ranking

1 England 79,166
2 Spain 76,892
3 Italy 63,410
4 Germany 54,946
5 Russia 48,875
6 France 46,597
7 Netherlands 42,464
8 Romania 40,337
9 Portugal 36,891
10 Turkey 32,475
11 Ukraine 31,600
12 Scotland 28,875
13 Greece 27,915
14 Switzerland 25,650
15 Belgium 24,825
16 Denmark 22,450
17 Czech Republic 21,500
18 Bulgaria 21,250
19 Norway 19,400
20 Austria 17,825
21 Serbia 16,000
22 Slovakia 15,665
23 Cyprus 15,416
24 Israel 15,250
25 Sweden 14,691
26 Croatia 12,666
27 Poland 11,916
28 Finland 9,790
29 Lithuania 9,666
30 Ireland 9,499
31 Latvia 9,164
32 Slovenia 9,082
33 Belarus 8,666
34 Bosnia-Herzegovina 8,665
35 Hungary 8,166
36 Iceland 6,665
37 Moldova 6,665
38 Georgia 6,664
39 Liechtenstein 5,500
40 Macedonia 5,165
41 Azerbaijan 4,498
42 Estonia 4,332
43 Albania 3,999
44 Kazakhstan 3,249
45 Armenia 2,999
46 Wales 2,331
47 Northern Ireland 2,165
48 Faroe Islands 2,165
49 Luxembourg 1,332
50 Montenegro 1,000
51 Andorra 0,500
52 Malta 0,499
53 San Marino 0,250

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 03-10-2008, 23:11

Winners of the week

Netherlands +4.000
2 unseeded teams qualified to the UEFA Group Stage (Twente+NEC)
and PSV moving from the CL Last 16 to the UEFA Cup semifinal.

Slovakia +2.333
Zilina unseeded and qualified to the UEFA Group stage

Croatia +1.334
Dinamo Zagreb unseeded and qualified to the UEFA Group Stage

Poland +1.000
Lech Poznan unseeded and qualified to the UEFA Group stage

Ukraine and Belgium +0.750
Metallist and Standard unseeded and qualified to the UEFA Group stage

Losers of the week

Romania -2.429
Rapid and Dinamo seeded and eliminated of the UEFA Cup

Austria and Greece -1.250
Austria seeded and eliminated of the UEFA Cup
Panathinaikos projected to be 4th of their CL group

France -0.857
Rennes seeded and eliminated of the UEFA Cup
Bordeaux projected to be 4th of their CL Group

Czech Rep, Sweden and Bulgaria -0.750
Sparta and Levski (seeded) and Kalmar (projected to go through) eliminated of the UEFA Cup

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 03-10-2008, 23:20

CL Projection

A: 1. Chelsea, 2. Roma, 3. CFR
B: 1. Inter, 2. Bremen, 3. Anorthosis
C: 1. Barcelona, 2. Sporting, 3. Shakhtar
D: 1. Liverpool, 2. Atletico, 3. PSV
E: 1. ManU, 2. Villareal, 3. Celtic
F: 1. Bayern, 2. Lyon, 3. Steaua
G: 1. Arsenal, 2. Porto, 3. Fenerbahce
H: 1. Real, 2. Juventus, 3. Zenit

Group runners-up fail in the Last 16
Top 8: Chelsea (winner), Liverpool (Final), Barcelona and Arsenal (semis), Inter, ManU, Bayern, Real (Quarters)

UC Projections

Group stage: 1. Pot 1, 2. Pot 2, 3. Pot 3, 4. Pot 4, 5. Pot 5

Last 32:
- Group winners eliminate Pot 3 teams
- Pot 2 vs CL drop outs: PSV, Zenit, Steaua, Stuttgart, Celtic, Ajax, Olympiakos, Fenerbahce
- Final table:
Milan (winner)
Sevilla (final)
PSV and Valencia (semi)
Benfica, Schalke, Zenit, CSKA (quarters)
Steaua, Tottenham, Hamburg, Stuttgart, Celtic, Ajax, Olympiakos, Fenerbahce (Last 16)

Remember that those are theoretical projections based on team coefficients

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 03-10-2008, 23:37

Review of the Top 10 countries

England 14.667
26.5 Liverpool - CL final
26.0 Chelsea - CL winner
23.0 Arsenal - CL semi
17.0 Man. U - CL quarter
13.0 Tottenham - UC Last 16
12.0 Man. City - UC Last 32
7.5 Aston Villa - UC Group stage
6.0 Portsmouth - UC Group stage

Spain 15.938
25.0 Sevilla - UC final
23.0 Barcelona - CL semi
22.0 Valencia - UC semi
18.0 Real Madrid - CL quarter
12.0 Villareal - CL last 16
11.0 Atletico - CL last 16
9.5 Deportivo - UC Last 32
7.0 Santander - UC Group stage

Italy 11.875
27.0 Milan - UC winner
17.0 Inter - CL quarter
12.5 Juventus - CL last 16
10.0 Roma - CL last 16
9.0 Sampdoria - UC Last 32
8.5 Fiorentina - CL group stage
7.0 Udinese - UC last 32

Germany 10.938
17.0 Schalke - UC quarter
16.0 Bayern - CL quarter
14.0 Stuttgart - UC Last 16
13.0 Hamburg - UC Last 16
11.0 Werder - CL last 16
9.5 Hertha - UC Group stage
5.0 Wolfsburg - UC Group stage

Russia 11.000
17.0 CSKA - UC quarter
15.0 Zenit - UC quarter
9.0 Spartak - UC Last 32

France 7.429
12.0 Lyon - CL last 16
9.0 Paris - UC last 32
8.0 Marseille - CL group stage
7.0 Nancy - UC group stage
7.0 Bordeaux - CL group stage
6.0 St Etienne - UC group stage

Netherlands 9.667
20.0 PSV - UC semi
13.0 Ajax - UC last 16
9.0 Heerenveen - UC last 32
7.0 Feyenoord - UC last 32
5.0 NEC - UC Group stage
4.0 Twente - UC Group stage

Romania 4.071
12.0 Steaua - UC last 16
9.0 Cluj - UC last 32

Portugal 7.214
16.0 Benfica - UC quarter
11.0 Braga - UC last 32
11.0 Sporting - CL last 16
11.0 Porto - CL last 16

Turkey
14.5 Fenerbahce - UC last 16
9.5 Galatasaray - UC last 32

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 03-10-2008, 22:57

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 03-10-2008, 23:11

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 03-10-2008, 23:20

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 03-10-2008, 23:37

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 24-10-2008, 22:21

Update after MD3 in CL and MD1 in UC

Projected country coefficients (season)

16,063 Spain
14,889 England
12,375 Italy
10,938 Germany
9,167 Netherlands
9,000 Russia
8,857 France
8,214 Portugal
7,625 Ukraine
6,667 Cyprus
6,250 Turkey
5,800 Denmark
5,250 Greece
4,667 Croatia
4,667 Belarus
4,167 Slovakia
4,000 Belgium
4,000 Poland
3,929 Romania
3,500 Serbia
3,100 Switzerland
2,900 Norway
2,875 Scotland
2,875 Czech Republic
2,500 Sweden
2,500 Lithuania
2,500 Ireland
2,250 Bulgaria
2,250 Austria
1,833 Finland
1,833 Bosnia-Herzegovina
1,750 Israel
1,333 Slovenia
1,166 Latvia
1,166 Iceland
1,166 Georgia
1,000 Hungary
0,833 Kazakhstan
0,666 Moldova
0,666 Azerbaijan
0,666 Albania
0,500 Macedonia
0,500 Montenegro
0,333 Estonia
0,333 Wales
0,333 Northern Ireland
0,333 Faroe Islands
0,000 Liechtenstein
0,000 Armenia
0,000 Luxembourg
0,000 Andorra
0,000 Malta
0,000 San Marino

Projected country ranking (2005-09 period)

1 England 79,388
2 Spain 77,017
3 Italy 63,910
4 Germany 54,946
5 France 48,025
6 Russia 46,875
7 Netherlands 41,964
8 Romania 40,195
9 Portugal 37,891
10 Ukraine 32,850
11 Turkey 31,475
12 Scotland 28,875
13 Greece 26,915
14 Switzerland 25,450
15 Belgium 24,825
16 Denmark 22,050
17 Czech Republic 21,250
18 Bulgaria 21,250
19 Norway 19,200
20 Austria 17,825
21 Serbia 15,750
22 Cyprus 15,416
23 Israel 15,250
24 Sweden 14,691
25 Slovakia 13,999
26 Croatia 12,666
27 Poland 11,916
28 Finland 9,790
29 Lithuania 9,666
30 Ireland 9,499
31 Belarus 9,333
32 Latvia 9,164
33 Slovenia 9,082
34 Bosnia-Herzegovina 8,665
35 Hungary 8,166
36 Iceland 6,665
37 Moldova 6,665
38 Georgia 6,664
39 Liechtenstein 5,500
40 Macedonia 5,165
41 Azerbaijan 4,498
42 Estonia 4,332
43 Albania 3,999
44 Kazakhstan 3,249
45 Armenia 2,999
46 Wales 2,331
47 Northern Ireland 2,165
48 Faroe Islands 2,165
49 Luxembourg 1,332
50 Montenegro 1,000
51 Andorra 0,500
52 Malta 0,499
53 San Marino 0,250

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 24-10-2008, 22:41

CL Projection

Best coefficient wins at home and draws away

Groups:
A: 1. Chelsea, 2. Roma, 3. Cluj
B: 1. Inter, 2. Bremen, 3. Anorthosis
C: 1. Barcelona, 2. Sporting, 3. Shakhtar
D: 1. Liverpool, 2. Atletico, 3. PSV
E: 1. Manchester, 2. Villareal, 3. Celtic
F: 1. Lyon, 2. Bayern, 3. Steaua
G: 1. Arsenal, 2. Kiev, 3. Porto
H: 1. Real, 2. Juventus, 3. BATE

Last 16: group winners are expected to get through to the quarters
Upcoming rounds: best coefficient gets through

Final outcome: Chelsea (winner), Liverpool (final), Barcelona, Arsenal (semis), Manchester, Inter, Lyon, Real (quarters)

UEFA Cup

Best coefficient wins at home and draws away

Groups:
A: 1. Schalke, 2. Paris, 3. City
B: 1. Benfica, 2. Galatasaray, 3. Olympiakos
C: 1. Sevilla, 2. Stuttgart, 3. Sampdoria
D: 1. Tottenham, 2. Spartak, 3. Udinese
E: 1. Milan, 2. Braga, 3. Heerenveen
F: 1. Hamburg, 2. Ajax, 3. Aston Villa
G: 1. Valencia, 2. Brugge, 3. St Etienne
H: 1. CSKA, 2. Deportivo, 3. Nancy

Last 32:
- groups winners get through
- groups seconds vs. CL relegated teams: best coefficient get through
Upcoming rounds: best coefficient get through

Final outcome: Milan (winner), Sevilla (final), PSV, Valencia (semis), Porto, Benfica, Schalke, CSKA (quarters)

Re: Country Coefficients projections
Author: kurt Date: 28-10-2008, 19:53	very interesting,keep up data please

Re: Country Coefficients projections
Author: kalim Date: 30-10-2008, 22:42	Yes, congratulation. That is the most interesting topic on this forum, in my opinion.