Forum

xml	No replies possible in the archive

Author: badgerboy
Date: 30-07-2008, 17:13

I know that Marathon did something like this - at least partially - for the CL already. See here .

But I don't recall seeing it yet for the UEFA Cup. And anyway - even if someone already did it I enjoy figuring it out for myself!

I've actually worked out how the group lines up would have looked this year - assuming that all the seeding from the start of the qualifiers worked out - if the new system was starting this year rather than next. So it's all done on the 2007 ranking list (not 2008).

Champions League

I assume that the TH spot is not needed & that therefore the Champions of country 13 (Belgium this year) head straight to the groups.

Pot 1
Chelsea
Liverpool
Barcelona
Arsenal
Manchester United
Lyon
Internazionale
Real Madrid

Pot 2
Bayern Munich
PSV Eindhoven
Villarreal
Roma
Porto
Werder Bremen
Sporting
Schalke

Pot 3
Juventus
Rangers
Marseille
Zenit
Steaua
Bordeaux
Celtic
Basel

Pot 4
Olympiakos
Shakhtar
Levski Sofia*
Slavia Praha*
Galatasaray*
Partizan Belgrade*
Standard Liege*
Cluj

So no change at all in the top two pots but out go Panathinaikos (Pot 3) plus Fenerbahce, Anderlecht. Fiorentina & Spartak Moscow (all pot 4). All of these teams end up in the UEFA Cup instead.

The "new teams" are shown with a * above. Standard Liege are the only one of these that would be "promoted" from no group stage football at all - the rest are coming up from the UEFA Cup.

Re: CL and UEFA Cup groups in 2009-10
Author: Kaiser Date: 30-07-2008, 17:21	Partizan and Standard in groups... But still changes are minimum.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 30-07-2008, 17:38

UEFA Cup

I've again assumed that the TH spot isn't used & shifted a few teams around the qualifying rounds accordingly. I've guessed how UEFA will do this - & might well be wrong. But it shouldn't affect the group stage line-up anyway. Of course regional seedings might - but I've ignored that possibility for fear of self-imploding...

Oh - & for the Fair Play spots I've just given FP1 the average coefficient of the highest-ranked Fair Play team in each of the past 5 seasons, FP2 the average of the second best etc. By this method none of the FP teams make the group stage - though 2/3 do get as far as QR4.

Pot 1
Milan
Sevilla
Valencia
Benfica
CSKA Moscow
Tottenham
Panathinaikos# (from CLNCQ3)
Hamburg
Ajax
Fenerbahce# (from CLNCQ3)
Everton
Anderlecht# (from CLNCQ3)

Pot 2
Club Brugge
Rapid Bucharest
Fiorentina# (from CLNCQ3)
Besiktas
Spartak Moscow (from CLNCQ2)
Paris Saint-Germain
Atletico Madrid (from CLNCQ3)
Sparta Prague (from CLNCQ2)
Dinamo Bucharest
Heerenveen
Udinese
Dinamo Kiev (from CLNCQ2)

Pot 3
Feyenoord
Dnipro
Austria Wien
AEK Athens
Sampdoria
Nancy
Portsmouth
Racing Santander
FC Kobenhavn
Panionios*
Hapoel Tel-Aviv*
Borussia Dortmund*

Pot 4
Aris Salonika*
Brondby*
Litex Lovech*
Crvena Zvezda*
Teplice*
Vitoria Guimaraes* (from CLNCQ2)
Dinamo Zagreb* (from CLCHQ3)
Saint-Etienne*
Wisla Krakow* (from CLCHQ3)
Artmedia Bratislava* (from CLCHQ3)
AaB Aalborg* (from CLCHQ3)
Brann Bergen* (from CLCHQ3)

The four teams marked with a # are those dropping down from the current season's CL list. The 15 marked with a * are those that would have been seeded to reach a group stage under the new system but are seeded to miss out this year.

Some of these 15 "newbies" are obviously accounted for by the increase in group stage places from 40 to 48.

The other 7 (actually 8 in total because of Standard Liege's "double promotion" from obscurity to the Champions League) are due to the loss of Stuttgart, Deportivo, Rosenborg, Braga, Manchester City, Hertha Berlin, Aston Villa & Rennes - all either IT or Fair Play teams this year.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 30-07-2008, 18:04

Finally a quick look at the list of unseeded teams in the final UEFA qualifying round.

Remember - all of these will be just one match away from a group stage.

Zurich
Slovan Liberec
Wolfsburg
Maritimo
Vitoria Setubal
Twente Enschede (from CLNCQ2)
FK Moscow
Saturn
Dinamo Moscow
Fair Play 1 (14.190)
Unirea Urziceni
Timisoara
NEC Nijmegen
Viking Stavanger
Hibernian
Lokomotiv Sofia
Banik Ostrava
Kayserispor
Fair Play 2 (11.132)
Motherwell
Queen of the South
Debrecen
Metalist Kharkiv
Rapid Wien (from CLCHQ2)
Salzburg
Germinal Beerschot
Sivasspor
Tavriya Simferopol
Young Boys
NK Domzale (from CLCHQ2)
Beitar Jerusalem (from CLCHQ2)
MTK Budapest (from CLCHQ2)
IFK Gothenburg (from CLCHQ2)
Anorthosis Famagusta (from CLCHQ2)
Tampere United (from CLCHQ2)
Dinamo Tbilisi (from CLCHQ2)
FK Ventspils (from CLCHQ2)
Rabotnicki (from CLCHQ2)

Re: CL and UEFA Cup groups in 2009-10
Author: Ricardo Date: 30-07-2008, 21:42	Yes this is interesting stuff. I did it in may, with not all competitions finshed. And I am working on getting my sheets up to date to give the same information based on the new season. With the new coefficients. But with only a few matches played in a season it's not very reliable. But it keeps being interesting. It will be soon available on my site (that might be a different address watch out!)

Re: CL and UEFA Cup groups in 2009-10
Author: mabo Date: 30-07-2008, 21:59	Very interesting! If the 33% country protection remains "newcomers" from England, Spain and Italy will be seeded in UC-Q4 and it is probably that newcomers from Germany and France will be seeded, too (based on the country ranking 2009).

Author: SunnyD
Date: 31-07-2008, 01:36

Thanks for the analysis - I had thought about doing this but had never gotten around to it.

If we're going to assume all the same domestic results, we might as well assume the same FP teams. If we do, then Man City and Hertha Berlin are back in at the expense of AaB and Brann.

That leaves Standard plus your 13 remaining 'asterisks' in instead of the six IT winners you listed. Going one step further, the six of those asterisks from the stronger countries are more or less a wash with those IT teams.

So in the end, the net changes are limited. The teams in the knockout rounds are nearly the same, Platini gets his desired five champions from lower countries in the CL group stage at the expense of decent but not exceptional teams from stronger countries, and eight new spots are created in the reinvigorated UC Group for teams from roughly the 16-27 range. Oh, and the Intertoto Cup is eliminated at the same time.

I wonder how much back testing like this UEFA did?

Re: CL and UEFA Cup groups in 2009-10
Author: badgerboy Date: 31-07-2008, 09:16	"If we're going to assume all the same domestic results, we might as well assume the same FP teams. If we do, then Man City and Hertha Berlin are back in at the expense of AaB and Brann". Actually it would be Saint-Etienne & Teplice that would miss out in this case as the other teams are coming directly from the CL.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 31-07-2008, 10:54

I've just completed a slightly different exercise - based on the 2008 ranking lists - making the simple assumption that the best possible teams (in terms of coefficients) qualify for Europe.

I've only eliminated relegated teams (basically Parma from Italy) - who I know "theoretically" could win a cup. If they did they would simply replace the last Italian team (Udinese) anyway - so in or out is insignificant.

I wont list all the teams - just the differences that occur between the current format & the new one.

So for the CL:

In under the new format but not under the current one (all currently "UEFA Cup teams"): Anderlecht, Sparta Praha, Rosenborg, Levski Sofia;

In under the current format but demoted to the UEFA Cup under the new one: Juventus, Monaco, Celtic, Olympiakos.

UEFA Cup:

In under the new format: Partizan Belgrade, FC Kobenhavn, Genclerbirligi, Maccabi Haifa, Hearts, Panionios, Hapoel Tel-Aviv, CSKA Sofia, Utrecht, Aris Salonika, Gaziantepspor, Dinamo Zagreb.

Out: Bolton, Deportivo, Lens, Udinese (essentially the last (IT)team from the top four countries. The last German team would - just - miss out under the current format in any case.

Interesting that - based purely on coefficients - as well as the "big five" three other countries fill their full quota of teams: Netherlands (6 teams) plus Greece & Turkey (both 5 teams).

Interesting also to see the affect on the seeding line for the UEFA Cup.

Under the current system if all "the best" teams were to qualify for both the CL and UEFA Cup groups the R1 seeding line would end with Galatasaray (30.469). Under the new format this drops more than 10 points to Gaziantepspor (19.469). In my theoretical example only Dinamo Zagreb gets in regardless of their seeding - grabbing the final spot as a CLCHQ3 loser.

It might also be interesting to see how far below that "best possible" 19.469 the real line is next year. This year we are currently looking at 23.748 (6.721 down on the maximum).

Author: badgerboy
Date: 31-07-2008, 12:05

And finally the same exercise but using the 2009 team rankings. These are of course still very embryonic but at least they drop the points for 2003-04 so I get rid of the teams who got most of their points 5 years ago.

Champions League

In (all from UEFA Cup): Anderlecht, Austria Wien, Sparta Praha, Levski Sofia.

Out(all to UEFA Cup): Juventus, Olympiakos, Rapid Bucharest, Celtic.

So - without trying to confuse things too much - just one different in & one different out than for the 2008 rankings. Austria Wien replace Rosenborg while Rapid would've been seeded but now wont!

UEFA Cup

In: Galatasaray, Partizan Belgrade, FC Kobenhavn, Hapoel Tel-Aviv, Maccabi Haifa, Litex Lovech, Zurich, CSKA Sofia, Panionios, Mlada Boleslav, Cluj, Vitoria Guimaraes, Dinamo Zagreb.

Out: Bolton, Lens, Atletico Madrid, Udinese, Hertha Berlin.

So - based on these rankings - Germany's IT team would've made it under the current formats but now wont.

Of the 12 teams coming in (Galatasaray were in under both formats based on 2008 rankings anyway) - 7 are the same on both ranking lists with 5 changes.

I guess this area of the ranking list will be extremely volatile through the season anyway. But - for now at least - a coefficient of 15.076 (Vitoria Guimaraes) is enough to get you a seeding in the final round of UEFA Cup qualifiers. Again it will be interesting to see how far this goes up before the end of the season.

Re: CL and UEFA Cup groups in 2009-10
Author: amirbachar Date: 31-07-2008, 13:44	This "best ranked teams qualify" list is very interesting. However, some seems to forget that this is not always the case... Next year with CL NCQ round, even the big clubs, like Liverpool could be eliminated. Next year I think there will much more surprises from coefficients point of view. The seeding won't be so important as it is now.

Re: CL and UEFA Cup groups in 2009-10
Author: SunnyD Date: 31-07-2008, 14:45	@badgerboy I stand corrected, thanks.