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Author: Flann
Date: 12-04-2008, 09:51

Before this years' semi finals I find the following Team Ranking positions:

1 AC Milan Ita 119.852
2 Chelsea Eng 119.543
3 Liverpool Eng 117.543
4 FC Barcelona Esp 116.796
5 Arsenal Eng 110.543
6 Sevilla Esp 102.796
7 Manchester United Eng 102.543
8 Olympique Lyon Fra 99.380
9 Internazionale Ita 96.852
10 Real Madrid Esp 93.796
11 PSV Eindhoven Ned 91.610
12 Bayern München Ger 91.030

Question 1: What is the maximum position Bayern München could climb up by reaching/winning the UC final?
Question 2: Is there a (high?/low?) possibility for Bayern München to get into Seeding Pot 1 for the CL Group stage 2008/09?

Thanks in advance for your replies!

Author: executor
Date: 12-04-2008, 10:38
Edited by: executor
at: 12-04-2008, 10:38

If Bayern wins all remaining games, they'll have 7 pts (4 from SF, 1 bonus pt + 2 from final). They will also have 0.333 from country coefficient. So maximum coefficient for Bayern this season: 98.363. PSV cannot make any more pts, while Real and Inter can only gain them through country coefficient. And those won't be enough to catch Bayern (if they win all games). However, should they fail to win at least one, I think Inter will be in front of them.

For the chances of being in Pot 1: they'll have to hope at least one of the teams above them don't make it to GS (2, if they don't top Inter). AC Milan and Sevilla are best, only and quite possible bets.

Re: Two questions regarding Team Ranking
Author: dzomba Date: 12-04-2008, 10:39 Edited by: dzomba at: 12-04-2008, 10:40	If Bayern wins every game, the most he can get is 9th place, under Lyon, above Inter, what could be enough for Pot 1 if Sevilla wouldn't qualify for a Champions League. Or Milan ...

Author: isidromv
Date: 12-04-2008, 10:41
Edited by: isidromv
at: 12-04-2008, 10:44

The maximum for Bayern this year would be 7.33 more points (2 wins in semifinal + 1 bonus + win in final + .33*(7/7) from Germany?s coefficient). That is a total of 98.360 and 9th in the team ranking.

If both Sevilla and Milan qualify to CL, Bayern will be in pot 2.

If one of them fails to qualify (Sevilla is more likely), Bayern needs to pass Real Madrid and Inter to be in pot 1, that is 6 more points instead of the maximum 7.

If Both fail to qualify, then Bayern needs only 3 points to pass Real and be in pot 1.

Of course, there can also be some upsets in CL QR3.

Edit: I was a bit slow in typing the answer, two more answers came before mine.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 12-04-2008, 10:56
Edited by: Ricardo
at: 12-04-2008, 10:57

Flann,
1.
Every points Bayern makes (1 for a draw, 2 for a win, 1 bonus for reaching the final) maens their coefficient raises 1.047 (including the 33% of the country coefficient)
They can get maximum 2 wins in semi, 1 bonus for reaching the final and 2 for winning the final = 7 points.
maximum coefficient is 91.030 + 7*1.047 = 98.360. So they could get up to spot 9, passing the already eliminated PSV, Real Madrid and Inter
2.
The 4 semifinalists in CL are all above Bayern, so we don't have to take a lower ranked Titleholder into account.
There are 8 teams in pot 1
So all we have to check is weather Bayern can get among the best 8 qualifying teams.

To become 11th in ranking Bayern needs 1 point (can be expected)
to become 10th, Bayern needs 4, which means qualifying for the final
to become 9th, Bayern needs 6 points
So that sounds not enough to be in pot 1

But there are some teams that do not qualify from the top-8:
1. Milan - is struggling and 4 points down, 6 matches to go, from Fiorentina, who holds the 4th CL-spot in Italy now. Also Udinese and Sampdoria are still possible candidates there. I see quit some chances that they won't qualify! This weekend is Inter-Fiorentina and Juventus-Milan. These could make things clearer!
2. Liverpool - they are 3 points up, 5 matches to go, from Everton, and Liverpool has also still the 'escape'qualification of winning the CL. Actualy I don't see Liverpool not qualifying.
3. Sevilla - they are 5 points down with 7 matches to go, from Atletico and also Racing Santander is in a better position. Also here is a big chance that Sevilla will not qualify.

So to my opinion 2 out of these top-8 might drop out. Making rank nr 10 enough for being in pot 1(I was hoping PSV would have taken that spot

). So Bayern needs to get to the final!
And how big is the chance that that will happen? Zenit is a tough opponent. I hope they are warned by Zenit beating Leverkusen and by how narrowly they escpaed from Getafe.

Edit: I was a bit slow in typing the answer, three more answers came before mine.

Re: Two questions regarding Team Ranking
Author: Flann Date: 13-04-2008, 06:21	Thanks a lot for all your helpful information!