Forum

xml	No replies possible in the archive

Author: badgerboy
Date: 15-03-2008, 18:50

A bit early perhaps but I've been having a quick look at the potential seeding picture for next year's draw.

By my reckoning Celtic (43rd) are currently the last team that would be definitely seeded in the draw - should they have to qualify.

Shakhtar Donetsk would be sure to join them if Fenerbahce were eliminated in the next round with two defeats. Otherwise they would be forced to wait for one of the other current "battles" to go their way. The Champions League being won by a team already qualified for the group stage - thus allowing Rangers or Celtic direct qualification - would be enough.

At the other end of the scale it stills theoretically possible (if incredibly unlikely) for CSKA Sofia (110th) to be the last seeded team.

Here's a full list of teams between those extremes. The first number after the team name is their position in the draw should all the lowest-ranked teams possible reach QR3 with the second number their position if all the highest-ranked teams qualify.

This is based on the current ranking - so doesn't take into account extra points that might be gained in the current year's competition. Aside from Fener the only potential climbers from lower down the rankings are Fiorentina (who could challenge as high as Everton) and Getafe - who would be big outsiders for CL qualification at best (I've only included them because of their current good form & the inconsistency of other Spanish teams).

Shakhtar Donetsk 6-17
Fenerbahce 6-17
Everton 6-17 (assumed to be lowest-ranked 2nd English team)
Anderlecht 7-18
Club Brugge 7-19
Rapid Bucharest 7-19
Getafe 7-19
Besiktas 7-20
Spartak Moscow 7-21 (already qualified)
Atletico Madrid 8-21 (2nd lowest-ranked Spanish contender)
Sparta Praha 9-22
Dinamo Bucharest 9-22
Heerenveen 9-22
Dinamo Kiev 9-23 (assumes at least 1 of Ukraine's big two qualify)
Fiorentina 10-23 (assumed to be lowest-ranked 2nd Italian team)
Feyenoord 11-23
Levski Sofia 11-24
Dnipro 11-24
Austria Wien 11-25
AEK Athens 11-25 (lowest-ranked 2nd Greek team)
Slavia Praha 12-26 (assumes at least one of Czech big two qualify)
Galatasaray 13-26 (2nd lowest-ranked Turkish contender)
Partizan Belgrade 14-27
Nancy 14-27 (lowest-ranked serious French contender)
Racing Santander 15-27 (lowest-ranked Spanish contender)
FC Kobenhavn 16-28
CSKA Sofia 16-29

Author: badgerboy
Date: 15-03-2008, 19:30
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 15-03-2008, 20:03

Some of the "battles" that affect the above list.

1. Spain. Very unpredictable this year as regards at least one of the CL spots.

I guess highly-ranked Villarreal (3rd - 6 pts ahead of the 5th) - are very strong contenders for one of the qualifying spots. But the 4th could go to anyone from Sevilla (6th - 2 points off 4th) & Racing Santander (5th in La Liga level on points with 4th placed Atletico Madrid). Espanyol (7th - 2 points down) are the other serious contenders - although I've counted both Getafe (9th - 8 points down) & Valencia (10th - 8 points down) as outside possibilities too.

Racing Santander would be best for those wanting the seeding line to drop (SLDF's to reintroduce an abbreviation from last year) with Atletico also pretty good for those teams near the top of the "uncertain seeding" list in my last post.

2. England. Liverpool (4th, level on points with 5th) v Everton for the 4th spot although in theory Chelsea (3rd - 5 points ahead) could also be sucked in and until midweek I was still enthusiastic that Aston Villa (6th - 7 points down) could get involved. I'm pleased to see that Everton would have to be incredibly unlucky not to be seeded should they make it. This also means that Shakhtar & Fenerbahce are the only teams that could be potentially affected by the English battle.

3. Italy. Milan (5th - 1 point down) or Juve (3rd - 5 points up) will surely take one of the QR3 spots & shrewd punters would probably bet on them getting both. I'm hoping that Fiorentina (4th - 1 point up) can upset the applecart. 9 more points from their UEFA Cup run would also see them joining Everton on the fringes of the seeding line - & make this yet another battle that doesn't make that much difference to outsiders.

4. France. In all probability it's seeded Marseille (4th - 3 points down) v Nancy (3rd - 3 points up) who are currently low on the uncertain list for the QR3 spot. Of course Bordeaux (4 points ahead of 3rd) might fall - although I doubt it. All the teams in the immediate chasing pack (Le Mans etc) would definitely be unseeded.

5. Germany. All the serious contenders would be seeded. I like to dream of Karlsruhe (7th - 6 points down) upsetting the odds - but it is only a dream.

6. Portugal. Looking like one of the serious battles. Guimaraes (2nd - 4 points up) or Setubal (4th - 3 points down) would be great for SLDF's Sporting (5th - 6 points down) or Benfica (3rd - 3 points up but probably still favourites for 2nd) obviously wouldn't.

7. Romania. Well Steaua (3rd - level on points with 2nd) would obviously be the worst runner-up for SLDF's while Rapid (2nd) & Dinamo (6th - 4 points down) are currently "inbetweenies". Timisoara (4th - 2 points down), Urziceni (5th - 3 points down) or (whisper it quietly in moro's hearing) Cluj (1st - 8 ahead of 2nd) would have SLDF's doing cartwheels of joy.

8. Netherlands. Well with the play-offs I guess anything can happen. It'll probably be Ajax (again) for the "seeded giants" - against three from four of: Heerenveen & Feyenoord (good for a fair few "borderline" teams); NAC & Groningen (good for everyone). There might be a couple of other contenders too - but AZ aren't one of them - so anyone but Ajax (or PSV) would be pretty good.

9. Russia. Done & dusted so Spartak are just waiting & hoping...

10. Scotland. It will be Rangers & Celtic. The only real question is - will one or both have to qualify?

11. Ukraine. Already starting to look as if the new-look competitiveness at the winter-break was just an illusion. Shakhtar (1st - 6 up on 3rd) would surely be seeded; Dinamo (2nd - 4 up on 3rd) & Dnipro (3rd) would be waiting to see. Any real SLDF optimism has been diminishing as I've been preparing my stats - as Metalist Kharkiv are now 5 points adrift of 2nd spot.

12. Belgium. It seems very likely that at least one of the Belgian qualifiers will ensure at least some celebrating for SLDF's. Standard Liege are currently 10 points ahead of the 3rd team. The 2nd Belgian spot probably rests between Club Brugge (2nd - 3 points up), Cercle Brugge (3rd - 3 points down) and Anderlecht (4th - 5 points down). Brugge or Anderlecht would stand a respectable chance of being seeded - Cercle - the "unfashionable" club of Brugge - are batting for the SLDF's.

13. Czech Republic. I'm probably being overly optimistic to even consider that it wont be Slavia (1st - 7 pts ahead of 3rd) and Sparta (2nd - 5 pts ahead of 3rd) but I'm currently vaguely hoping that one of those leading the chasing pack - Banik Ostrava or Brno - might mount a challenge for one of the spots.

14. Turkey. Again it's surely only misplaced optimism that leads me to suggest that Sivasspor (1st - 1 point ahead of 3rd but played a game more) might grab one of the top two spots & start an SLDF party. There might be a fair number of teams on the "unknown seeding" list with more realistic hopes that Galatasaray (3rd - 1 point down) might upset either Besiktas (2nd - 1 point up) or Fenerbahce (4th - 1 point down).

15. Greece. At least one team - Panathinaikos (1st - 4 points up on 3rd) or Olympiakos (2nd - 3 points up on 3rd) will be seeded. Third-placed AEK (another one of many in the seeding no man's land) must still have decent hopes of getting in on the act though.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 18-03-2008, 13:35

Hmmm. Already I can't edit/update my earlier posts. I guess forum 2 has many advantages!

In that case I'll just add the battles from outside the top 15 countries that might be significant to the seedings.

The biggest one by far is Switzerland where Basel (who would be seeded) lead Young Boys (who wouldn't) by 3 points.

In Bulgaria CSKA - who surely wont be seeded - lead Lokomotiv Sofia by 8 points. Even Levski would need an awful lot of good fortune to be seeded & since they are 11 points off the top spot,in a league where the top teams don't drop that many points, they probably need more than luck too. Similarly in Austria - Austria Wien's title credentials look shot - 7 points behind leaders Salzburg with 7 games left & they don't stand much hope of being seeded either.

Partizan Belgrade are probably favourites to win the league in Serbia - with a 5 point lead over Crvena Zvezda & 7 over Vojvodina as are FC Kobenhavn in Denmark - despite currently only being level on points with Aalborg. Both are likely to have to qualify for the group stage the hard way though.

Author: dzomba
Date: 18-03-2008, 15:44

I am sure that a margin would be very close to Spartak Moscow. They will be above the line, under the line, one place above the line, or one place under the line. So teams like Slavia or Galatasaray have zero practical chances to be seeded.

Only serious battles are in: Spain, Italy, France, Romania, Portugal, Turkey, Netherlands, maybe Belgium.
Bulgaria, Ukraine, England, Germany (and other, which are not mentioned) won't produce unexpected participant.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Cirdan Date: 18-03-2008, 20:44 Edited by: Cirdan at: 18-03-2008, 20:46	for Germany, it depends on what you mean with unexpected... the race is open, having Bayern-HSV-Leverkusen in the CL, and no Werder and no Schalke would be surprising imho, but it doesn't matter for the QR3 seeding, because like Badgerboy said, everyone would be seeded. Considering Liverpools recent form, I fear you are right about England, however.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: dzomba Date: 18-03-2008, 21:11 Edited by: dzomba at: 18-03-2008, 21:13	I meant exactly that, it would not influence seeding. (off course participant is unknown, but it will be seeded.) The same is in Czech, Poland, Bulgaria etc (they are unseeded for sure).

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: badgerboy Date: 19-03-2008, 10:16	I mostly agree with Dzomba's analysis too. Except I'd add Switzerland to the list. I've no real idea how the teams are playing there but with Basel only 3 points ahead of Young Boys - who appear to be in good form - I don't see the outcome as a foregone conclusion. Additionally Greece might be important for a few teams - if AEK could grab the second spot.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: dzomba Date: 19-03-2008, 10:38	I thought Switzerland would have two participants, and then it wouldn't matter if Basel is first or second, but they are just under the line - the best country with only one participant - so, yes, there is a battle too, but i don't give too much chances against Basel. Greece is open too (although i do not believe in AEK).

Author: Zhund0r
Date: 19-03-2008, 11:05

Even VfB Stuttgart could reach the 3rd place in Germany (thanks to Mario Gomez...)

1 Munich 50
2 Hamburg 45
3 Leverkusen 44
4 Bremen 43
5 Schalke 41
6 Stuttgart 38

I'd say Bremen and Hamburg. Leverkusen and Schalke will play some international games, HSV, Werder & Stuttgart can concentrate on the Bundesliga. Maybe VfB can repeat history...
They seem to have the easiest way till the end:

VfB Stuttgart - Hansa Rostock
Hannover 96 - VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart - Hamburger SV (key game)
Bayer Leverkusen - VfB Stuttgart (key game)
VfB Stuttgart - 1. FC N�rnberg
Bayern M�nchen - VfB Stuttgart (1st leg: 3-1 VfB)
VfB Stuttgart - Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund - VfB Stuttgart
VfL Wolfsburg - VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart - Arminia Bielefeld

By the way, if Leverkusen (next weekend)and VfB could win in Munich we can get a very serious race of Bayern, Werder, HSV, Bayer, Schalke and Stuttgart.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Ricardo Date: 19-03-2008, 12:08	"but i don't give too much chances against Basel." Well, Basel lost it before on the last matchday!(2006)

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Cirdan Date: 19-03-2008, 13:51	I doubt that Stuttgart will make it, but even if, they'll be seeded as well.

Author: dzomba
Date: 31-03-2008, 08:53
Edited by: dzomba
at: 31-03-2008, 08:58

Weekly report:

Milan is in huge problems. Until now i thought they will make it, i do not any more. But Fiorentina still can earn their seedings if they make it to final.
Basel seem to lose ground in Switzerland, and that could open 1 seeding spot for lower teams.
Things messed up in Greece, but only 3 rounds are left. I expect Olympiacos through, question is Panathinaikos (seeded) or AEK (unseeded).
I expect Fenerbahce and Galatasaray through, so 1 seeded and 1 unseeded from Turkey.
I expect Ajax will make it in play off ...
Atletico is in command in Spain, but it's not over yet, too much matches left. I do not believe there is a chance for them to be seeded.
Sporting-Guimaraes - interesting fight. Same between Nancy-Marseille. (2 possible seeding spots)
Club Brugge replaced with Anderlecht (i am sure 'cos of their form) - no influence on seedings.
Steaua will probably be second, so that's one more answer...

Spartak Moscow is currently seeded ...

Author: badgerboy
Date: 31-03-2008, 12:33
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 31-03-2008, 12:53

My own weekly report.

Sadly Liverpool's victory over Everton has probably ended the battle for 4th spot in England. Liverpool are now 5 points ahead of their local rivals with 6 games left. There's a decent chance that this will be 2 points with 5 games left after next weekend - when Liverpool go to the Emirates & Everton play relegated Derby at Goodison. But Everton are in pretty terrible form right now & have a pretty tough run-in themselves.

In Spain the team noone is talking about seems to be very much in the mix for 4th spot. Racing Santander won 3-0 away to Espanyol yesterday and are now level on points with Atletico. These two have a 5 point lead over Sevilla (who are still serious contenders) & the aforementioned Espanyol (whose recent form suggests they probably aren't).

In Italy too things suddenly look very interesting. I wish I shared dzomba's confidence that Milan wont make it - but Fiorentina are wobbling too which has allowed Milan to stay within 4 points of the 4th spot. The interesting aspect is that a two-horse race has suddenly turned into a four-horse race with Udinese (similar seeding position to Fiorentina - so iffy) & Sampdoria (unseeded) now right in the mix.

Greece looks tight to me - three teams separated by two points - but dzomba is probably right about Olympiakos - if only because it seems rare that top teams in Greece (especially Olympiakos) lose crucial games to non-top 3 teams. Assuming they don't drop any points at all they will be Champions - leaving the other "big two" to fight it out in the play-offs.

In Turkey I'm impressed that Sivasspor are still in contention. Things will get tough for them in the next two weeks though (Besiktas at home & Kayserispor away). If they get through those games relatively unscathed (4 pts) then Galatasaray at home on the penultimate matchday could be very tasty indeed. I agree that Fener are favourites for one of the spots though. Their main issues are Galatasaray away (27 April) and any adverse reaction they might have to their CL matches (their only league defeat since January came at home to unheralded Bursaspor after their CL first leg with Sevilla).

In Belgium Anderlecht beat Cercle Brugge - which ought to mean that the battle for 2nd is between them & Club Brugge. Standard are 9 & 10 points respectively ahead of these two - so surely will take the title.

In Romania the issue is surely now whether Steaua can overhaul Cluj & take the direct GS spot - hence freeing up a seeded spot in QR3.

In the Netherlands the most interesting development was probably Feyenoord losing to NAC & hence dropping out of the play-offs. There are still 5 teams fighting for the last 3 play-off spots with 3 games left - Ajax surely have the first of the four spots sewn up. The closeness of the league table suggests they aren't significantly superior to any of their likely play-off opponents though - so as far as I'm concerned anything can happen in those.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Ricardo Date: 31-03-2008, 19:00	Interesting about Milan is that they can easily drop beneath UC qualification even! Will they participate in Intertoto???? P.S. Manchester United, Porto and Glasgow Rangers qualified for CL (at least Q2)this weekend

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: dzomba Date: 07-04-2008, 10:01 Edited by: dzomba at: 07-04-2008, 10:01	Significant things happened in Greece. Panathinaikos lost, letting AEK second. Cluj is losing a title. Very hard for them to change the course of events. Other situations across Europe remained unchanged. What was the talking about play-off in Greece ? Is that just a proposal for next season or ?! Someone mentioned it on this forum ...

Author: badgerboy
Date: 07-04-2008, 11:50

Dzomba

Play-offs are happening this year.

From the wiki:

"The Super League is entitled to two entrants into the 2007-08 (should be 2008-09!) UEFA Champions League season. The Super League champion directly enters the 3rd qualifying round of the Champions League. The second through fifth place teams in the Super League enter a play-off for the second Greek entry. The play-off winner enters the Champions League's second qualifying round, a two-legged tie from which the winner advances to the 3rd round qualyfication of the champions league. The winner of the Greek Cup automatically qualifies for the UEFA Cup, as well as the runners-up of the Super League play-off.

In the play-off for Champions League, the teams play each other in a home and away round robin. However, they do not all start with 0 points. Instead, a weighting system applies to the teams' standing at the start of the play-off mini-league. The team finishing fifth in the Super League will start the play off with 0 points. The fifth place team�s end of season tally of points is subtracted from the sum of the points that other teams have. This number is then divided by three to give the other teams the points with which they start the mini-league".

This information was already given somewhere on the forum but I'm too lazy to hunt for it.

Indeed - no serious changes to report this week. Though my over-optimistic nose for upsets couldn't help noticing that the inconsistency of the top teams in Germany (except Bayern unfortunately) means that Wolfsburg are now within 4 points of 3rd placed Schalke.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: dzomba Date: 07-04-2008, 12:04	I do not like play-offs, especially when there is reducing of points. I think that's very unfair. A team can perform very good, much better than opponent in the whole season, make 10 points advantage, but then it's reduced to 3 or 5, and the whole season depends on one game.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Ricardo Date: 07-04-2008, 12:29	even more terrible the play-off in Holland: no points taken from the season.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 07-04-2008, 12:39

I'm not really sure about play-offs myself.

I started out really disliking the idea (when it started in the Netherlands). But I'm warming to it a bit more now.

But if there are going to be play-offs at all I'm inclined to think that starting from scratch - as the Dutch do - is the best way.

In Cyprus they are playing off for the Championship (which is somehow much worse than just playing off for a CL spot) but it also looks pointless because Anorthosis were so far ahead before the play-offs started.

I think I would only really like play-offs (in England) if they resulted in a guaranteed CL group stage spot. Otherwise there is a fair chance that an "underdog" winning the play-offs will just end up losing in QR3.

The only way this could realistically happen would be for the CL groups to be much bigger than they already are. Most people would say that 32 teams is already enough.

But maybe in future - 2012 or 2015? - it might become appealing to even double the number of teams playing the group stage.

64 teams in 16 groups of 4 & then KO rounds from the last 32.

The big teams might not like the idea of lots of meaningless group games since qualification ought to be ridiculously easy. But then isn't qualification fairly easy for them now anyway - perhaps more so from 2009-10?. Lots of "new faces" in the competition might freshen things up a bit. More teams would have the potential to go a long way - since the competition would be straight KO from the last 32.

In such a (fantasy perhaps) scenario:

Countries 1-3 - 5 teams each = 15
Countries 4-6 - 4 teams each = 12
Countries 7-12 - 3 teams each = 18
Countries 13-15 - 2 teams each = 6
Countries 16-52 - 12 or 13 Champions (depending on TH spot).

For all countries with more than 1 spot then the last one should be decided by play-offs.

This would open up the possibility of almost any club in Europe getting to go to Old Trafford or the Nou Camp.

Author: dzomba
Date: 14-04-2008, 11:20
Edited by: dzomba
at: 14-04-2008, 11:41

Weekly report:

Milan is one step further.
Sevilla is one step closer.
Besiktas is out (I think Sivasspor was out last week).
Olimpiacos is in.

Benfica is two steps further. I think one of the giants won't make it (Sporting or Benfica).

Basel didn't get use of a Young Boys' slip.

Marseille is in great form, so they are favourites for French third.

Cluj is still in contention, but ... They shouldn't get into this position.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 14-04-2008, 13:33

My weekly update - with some biased opinion thrown in. Not all "battles" I mention are relevant to seeding:

1. Liverpool confirmed their 4th spot as Everton dropped two more points. A five point gap with four points left. Damn!

2. Spain is still very interesting. Atletico (54) dropped two points while both Racing Santander (53) & Sevilla (51) won. I'm a bit torn between Atletico & Racing here. Usually it would be Racing 100% but I also want to see Aguero in the CL & even the UEFA Cup would be a big achievement for Racing...

3. Nothing really changed in Italy except Juve confirmed they wont get dragged down into a 3rd/4th placed battle. The next four teams all lost so Fiorentina still have a four point advantage over Milan & Sampdoria & five over Udinese. Come on Fiorentina!

4. In France Marseille moved level on points with Nancy in 3rd. Boo-hiss!

5. Apart from Bayern it's still as tight as can be in Germany. All the contenders except Bremen & Leverkusen dropped points while Wolfsburg's (43) game was suspended due to poor weather. Should they win the rearranged game they would remarkably be within 2 points of a CL spot. At the moment Bremen (50) are 2nd and Schalke (48) are 3rd. Hamburg (47), Leverkusen (47) & Stuttgart (45) are the other contenders.

6. Things got better for Guimaraes (48) in Portugal although in CLQR3 terms Benfica's (45) defeat probably increased the odds of another high seed in QR3 as Guimaraes must stand a decent chance of going straight to the group stages. Sporting (46) are now 3rd while Setubal (41) seem to be out of contention. Come on Guimaraes!

7. Things seem pretty boring in Romania because everything seems to point to Steaua (65) winning the league - even though Cluj are only two points behind. I noticed today that the fixture-list has Steaua playing their owner's "second team" on the final day of the season. Talk about taking the mickey

OF course I'll be very happy to be proved wrong. Come on Cluj!

8. With the play-offs to come things in Holland are surely wide open. I expect PSV to win the league so it will be Ajax, NAC Breda & two from three of Twente, Heerenveen & Feyenoord in the play-offs. Feyenoord might well be out. I'll go for "anyone but Ajax" just for a change of contender.

9. Olympiakos aren't quite sure of the title yet in Greece. With one game left in the regular season they lead AEK by two points. It would be a pleasant surprise if there was the remotest chance of them losing next week though. The play-off teams will then be AEK, Panathinaikos, Aris Saloniki & one of Asteras Tripolis, Larisa & Panionios. A real surprise would be nice but smart money would be on AEK or Pana.

10. Dzomba is probably right about Turkey. It will probably be Gala & Fener - who are neck & neck at the top. I'm impressed that Sivasspor are still hanging on to their coat-tails though (just 3 points behind).

11. In Switzerland it's still Basel (possibly the most popular seeded team to draw should they qualify?) by 2 points from Young Boys but YB have a game in hand.

12. In Serbia Crvena Zvezda have now moved within three points of leaders Partizan with 8 games left to play.

13. In Denmark FC Kobenhavn's expected canter to the title hasn't transpired - at least not yet. Aalborg lead by five points while FC Midtjylland (who beat the leaders at the weekend) are now level in 2nd. A good race - although they have more games left to play (9) than any of the other major (top 30) leagues.

14. Hurrah for Rapid Wien - who lead moneybags Salzburg by four points in Austria with just two games left.

15. In Hungary - Gyor (hurrah for unfashionable provincial teams) blew the title race wide open by beating leaders MTK. They moved within a point of the top - as did Ujpest - with Debrecen two points further back. Wouldn't it be wonderful to think that a Hungarian team might actually be a serious contender for a CL group stage spot?

And finally - just a reminder of some of the more "predictable" qualifiers (and/or stuff that we've known for a while) - Rangers & Celtic for Scotland; Dynamo & Shakhtar for Ukraine; Anderlecht or Club Brugge will be second in Belgium - though Standard still lead the league by 7 points with 4 games left so look safe for the title; Sparta & Slavia for Czech Republic; CSKA for Bulgaria; Beitar for Israel; Wisla Krakow for Poland; Dinamo Zagreb for Croatia; Anorthosis for Cyprus; Artmedia v MSK Zilina in Slovakia & probably Domzale (lead Koper by 6 points) in Slovenia. Standard, CSKA & Wisla would be my most favoured "group stage newbies" with Dinamo Zagreb & Beitar not far behind.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: blue_shark Date: 14-04-2008, 14:28	@badgerboy don't forget that steaua only managed a draw against gloria buzau the first time they played them. also, apart from the obviously fixed matches, anything can happen in the romanain league. by my standards it is the only league where any team can beat all the others. tip: don't bet on romanian soccer games

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: executor Date: 14-04-2008, 14:41	@blue_shark If that game will matter, they won't make the same mistake twice. Also, the unpredictability of our league is actually good for betting, cause I almost always support the underdog. That's the reason I put a small amount on X2 tonight. Fingers crossed

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: krdel Date: 15-04-2008, 12:53	probably Domzale (lead Koper by 6 points) in Slovenia I'd say probably not, they're in bad form and they play in Koper next week.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: gukfva Date: 16-04-2008, 18:17	Gyor are solid and I guess they might capture the Hungarian title, but CL GS only as a dream for them. An interesting race in Hungary, though you should forget about European achievements.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: gukfva Date: 19-04-2008, 22:31	Today Groclin lost at Lech 0-2, so Wisla are officialy the champions in Poland.

Author: manny
Date: 21-04-2008, 02:09

more new champions and updates

PSV won dutch title
Olympiakos won but have that dispute with the bottom team so might lose 3 points and AEK could win title. With the playoffs its AEK or Olympiakos,Panathinaikos, Aris and Panionios
Rapid won Austrian title
Standard won title by beating anderlecht 2-0.
Bulgaria- CSKA lead levski by 10 points with 5 games left.
Dinamo Zagreb won title already in croatia.
Guimares are leading sporting by 3 points and benfica by 4 with 3 games left. If Setubal win today, they will only be 2 points behind sporting.
Finally, Sivasspor can easily make the qualifying rounds or even win title. They are 3 points behind both gala and fenerbache with 3 games left. Gala are playing fenerbahce at home this week while sivasspor are playing denizlispor away. Im hoping for a draw between the big 2 and a sivasspor win. Then week after sivasspor play gala at home and can win that and overtake both gala and fenerbahce because ferbahce have to play trabzonspor away. Very interesting, come on sivasspor!

Author: dzomba
Date: 21-04-2008, 08:33

Weekly report:

(considering only championships which influence seedings)

Spain: Atletico-Racing-Sevilla
5 games left. All three lost this weekend. Unpredictable. Things change after every game, there are ups and downs. Racing has the best schedule.

France: Nancy vs Marseille
Very unclear. Marseille didn't use match point, both teams have tough matches in front (Bordeaux or Lyon). 4 games left, 2 at home, 2 away. Maybe 50%-50%.

Portugal: Guimaraes-Sporting-Benfica
Unclear. I predict Guimaraes will finish 3rd ...

Switzerland: Basel vs Young Boys
I just noticed last matchday May 12th: Basel-Young Boys. I think Basel will need a win there to be a champion.

In my opinion, Turkey is clear (1st or 2nd, doesn't matter).

Same about Romania, i do not bet against Steaua.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Ricardo Date: 21-04-2008, 08:46	Marseille lost some points to Nancy this weekend.. Kopenhavn lost track of Midtjylland and the title...

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: sayko Date: 21-04-2008, 13:13	Turkey: Fenerbahce and Galatasaray will grab the 2 spot for CL i dont give Sivas a chance because they cant win games against big clubs and they have a match against galatasaray.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Ricardo Date: 21-04-2008, 16:52	So galatasaray has in the last 3 MD's 2 matches agasint their direct opponent? It's good they are in pretty good form, they could lose everything here otherwise.

Author: Heero
Date: 21-04-2008, 18:28

In Belgium Standard has become champion, but there is still an exciting battle for the second place between Anderlecht and Club Brugge. Both teams now have 61 points. Anderlecht has a better goal difference, but that doesn't matter in Belgium. The only tiebreaker is the number of victories, but at the moment both teams have 18 victories. If both teams gain the same amount of points in their last three games, they will have to play two play-offgames.

Anderlecht and Club Brugge will meat eachother in two weeks (at Anderlecht), so that could be a decisive game.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Lusankya Date: 21-04-2008, 19:17	Number of victories? Yeah goal difference would be to obvious as a tie breaker.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Philipp Date: 22-04-2008, 16:08 Edited by: Philipp at: 22-04-2008, 16:37	https://kassiesa.com/friends/ricardo/ecl0708/cl0809.htm is it possible, that there is a mistake? the site says, that SUI CL1 has to play CLQ3 in this scheme, but it is listed in CLQ2. how would CLQ2 look like, if the titleholder qualifies for R1? are there for sure 28 teams in CLQ2?

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Ricardo Date: 22-04-2008, 16:59	Yes, Philipp I made a mistake. The sheet is build on the fact that the titleholder qualifies already for R1 (ManUtd/Chelsea). I think that then Q2 will be of 28 teams. But the error lies in the text beneath. This should no be menioning SuiCL1, but BulCL1. They are the ones on the 16th spot, that move up to CLQ3 because of the already qualification of the Titleholder.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Philipp Date: 22-04-2008, 17:09	is there any possibility, that there will be only 26 teams in CLQ2? i do not think so, because BULCL1 and POL & HUNCL1 will move in any case to the next stage, because the titleholder will at least qualify for CLQ3 in his league. so i think, the only fact that is unclear is, if the scottish champ will have to play CLQ3. am i right?

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: Ricardo Date: 22-04-2008, 21:29	Yes I agree with that.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 28-04-2008, 16:09
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 28-04-2008, 16:25

Although nothing much was resolved this weekend it was a pretty bad weekend for anyone - like me - who is hoping to see some fresh faces in the Champions League compared to the past few years.

In Italy - Milan moved within two points of Fiorentina with three games left as Fiorentina could only draw at home to Sampdoria - who still have an outside chance of making it themselves (two points further back).

In France - Nancy dropped points so Marseille are now a point ahead in 3rd place.

In Portugal - Guimaraes were thrashed by Porto - so Sporting now have the same points & Benfica are just a point further back. I'd be surprised if Guimaraes now qualify straight to the groups & wouldn't be surprised if they drop out completely.

In Romania - Steaua moved two points ahead of Cluj - who will at least play qualifiers but will be unseeded & unfancied.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 28-04-2008, 16:24

As of this moment a list of the "best possible" (in terms only of coefficient) seeded line up in QR3:

1. Milan
2. Liverpool
3. Barcelona
4. Arsenal
5. Sevilla
(Villarreal)
6. Benfica
7. Bremen
(Sporting)
(Schalke)
8. Juventus
9. Rangers
10. Marseille
11. Steaua
12. Panathinaikos
13. Basel
(Celtic)
14. Ajax
15. Olympiakos
16. Fenerbahce

Note that this list doesn't take into account all "mathematical possibilities" just what seems "reasonable" given the current tables & the strength of the teams involved.

And the "worst"...

1. Arsenal
2. Villarreal
3. Schalke
4. Juventus
5. Rangers
6. Celtic
7. Olympiakos
8. Shakhtar
9. Anderlecht/Club Brugge
10. Spartak Moscow
11. Fiorentina
(Atletico Madrid)
12. Sparta Praha
(Heerenveen)
13. Dinamo Kiev
14. AEK Athens
15. Slavia Praha
16. Galatasaray

Author: 1923
Date: 28-04-2008, 22:02

Turkish S�per Lig MD - 32/34

Galatasaray 1-0 Fenerbah�e
Denizli 1-2 Sivas
Be�ikta� 3-0 Bursa

1.Galatasaray (73)
----------------------Q3
2.Fenerbah�e (70)
----------------------Q2
3.Sivas (70)
4.Be�ikta� (67)

Galatasaray seem to have a good advantage now. they need 1 win and 1 draw from remaining 2 matches without caring what Fenerbah�e is doing. so they have credit to draw at Sivas this weekend. Be�ikta� need a very very big miracle.

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: grada Date: 29-04-2008, 06:52	http://www.coen.wz.cz/nextlm.htm

Re: Champions League QR3 2008-09.
Author: doremi Date: 01-05-2008, 16:14	so, now... rangers qualify to group stage or qr3? n how about cska sofia? qr3 or qr2?

Author: badgerboy
Date: 01-05-2008, 16:33

Well mathematically it's still possible for Arsenal to finish ahead of either Manchester United or Chelsea (or both!) in the Premier League.

But assuming for a minute this doesn't happen then the winners of the SPL - which could be Celtic or Rangers - will start in the Group Stage & the runner-up will start in QR2.

CSKA are already certain to start in QR3.

This from the Access List page:

"Since the Champions League cup-holder will be from one of the top-8 ranked countries they will come in at the expense of the last-placed side of that association, in case they don't qualify by their domestic league. This implies that the champions of the 23th and 24th countries on the ranking list (Poland and Hungary) gain direct access to the 2nd qualifying round, and that the 16th country on the ranking list (Bulgaria) gains direct access to the 3rd qualifying round".

Author: pit
Date: 01-05-2008, 16:49

so, as of today, we have following situation:
CL final is Chelsea vs. Man. U.
as both teams are from England and as England has 4 slots - 2 Group stage and 2 Q3, without taking in consideration the places of both teams in the final ranking of Premiership, we can say that either TH slot will not be used or TH slot will be used to "upgrade" a Q3 access to a Group stage access
=> champions of the 23rd and 24th country in the ranking (Wisla from Poland and a team from Hungary) will start in Q2 rather in Q1
=> champion of the 16th country (CSKA Sofia from Bulgaria) will start in Q3 rather in Q2
now taking in consideration that both teams (Chelsea and Man. U.) occupy 1st and 2nd position with 4 pts. advance to the 3rd placed team of Arsenal two rounds before the end, it is very likely that the CL winner will finish 1st or 2nd in Premiership and will win Group stage access through their league position
if so => champion of the 10th country (Celtic or Rangers) will start in Group stage rather than in Q3
in the very unlikey case that the winner of CL drop to 3rd position in Premiership and win only Q3 access through Premiership => Scottish champion will start in Q3

although this is not the correct topic, overview on the UEFA Cup situation:
from 4 semifinalists Bayern, Rangers and Zenit have already won a CL slot for the next year, and Fiorentina is currently 4th in Italy with 3 rounds to go and 4 pts advantage towards the 6th team (the last position giving UEFA Cup slot, if CW /losing Cup finalist in case CW qualifies for CL/ is not between the first six).
So there are three possibilities:
if Bayern, Rangers or Zenit win UEFA Cup
=> TH slot will be unused, CWs from countries 19th and 20th countries (Israel and Serbia) will start in Q2 rather than Q1, CW from 14th country (Turkey) will start from R1 rather than Q2
if Fiorentina win UEFA Cup and qualifiy either for CL or UEFA Cup through Serie A
=> same as above
if Fiorentina win UEFA Cup and do not qualifiy even for UEFA Cup through Serie A, they will use the TH slot, CW from Israel and Serbia will start in Q1, CW from Turkey will start in Q2