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Author: porto-1978
Date: 22-02-2008, 01:00

EL1:

Update, after:
Barcelona 0 – 1 Real Madrid
Internazionale 2 – 1 Milan
Sevilla 1 - 1 Barcelona
Chelsea 0 - 0 Liverpool
Bayern 1 - 1 Bremen
Celtic 2 – 3 Barcelona
Lyon 1 – 1 Manchester Utd
Liverpool 2 – 0 Inter
Roma 2 – 1 Real Madrid
Arsenal 0 – 0 Milan
...and after AEK and Bordeaux elimination at UCR3, it stands like this:

# Club (Games/Points)

1 Barcelona 9 20
2 Inter 7 18
3 Sevilla 8 16
4 Manchester 6 12
5 Lyon 6 11
6 Liverpool 7 10
7 Madrid 6 9
8 Arsenal 6 9
9 Milan 7 8
10 Roma 5 7
11 Bremen 5 7
12 PSV 4 6
13 Celtic 5 6
14 Chelsea 6 6
15 Porto 3 4
16 Bayern 3 4
17 Benfica 5 4
--------------------------
18 Bordeaux 31 pts *
19 AEK 29 pts
20 Stuttgart 23 pts **
21 Valencia 22 pts ***
22 CSKA 22 pts

* = games missing

Bordeaux and AEK were the only clubs in EL1 losing at UCr3. So they are the 4th and 5th worst at "level of success" with (0.24 & 0.26) being Bordeaux better than AEK at this season coefficient. So Bordeaux "level of success" is 0.26 and 0.24 for AEK.

FORMULA: pts at games played + ("level of success" X possible pts at games not played)

Bordeaux will play just 2 "real games" with Lyon, one had lost and have still the away game to play. So miss 120 possible points.
Bordeaux = 0 + (0.26 X 120) = 31,2 = 31 pts * (1 game missing)

AEK played 2 games and made 0 points with no more games to play. So miss also 120 possible points.
AEK = 0 + (0.24 X 120) = 28,8 = 29 pts

This way, along with CSKA, Valencia and Stuttgart, AEK and Bordeaux will be the 5 clubs relegated to next EL2. And the 17 clubs above water line will be on the next EL1 along with the 3 promoted from EL2.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 22-02-2008, 01:13
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 22-02-2008, 01:16

EL2:

# Club (Games/Points)

1 Sporting 4 12
2 Fenerbache 3 9
3 Schalke 2 6
-------------------------
4 Olympiacos 4 6
5 Tottenham 3 5
6 Marseille 2 3
7 Rangers 2 2
8 Anderlecht 3 1
9 Villarreal 53 pts
10 Panathinaikos 53 pts
11 Slavia 50 pts *
12 Basel 48 pts
13 Rosenborg 47 pts
14 Besiktas 39 pts *
15 Shakhtar 37 pts
16 Lazio 37 pts
17 Steaua 36 pts
18 D. Kiev 36 pts
----------------------------------
19 AZ 28 pts
20 Ajax 27 pts
21 Sparta P 26 pts *
22 Lokomotiv M 26 pts

* = games missing

From the clubs the lost at UCR3 this season coefficient puts Villarreal> Panathinaikos> Basel> Rosenborg> Slavia
They get 10th to 14th worst places at “level of success” correspondent to 0.36 to 0.44, with 0.4 as middle point. So the “level of success” distribution is on this case Villarreal 0.42, Panathinaikos 0.41, Basel 0.4, Rosenborg 0.39, Slavia 0.38.

Slavia played 7 games making 14 points and still have 1 to play with Sparta. So miss 96 possible points.
Slavia = 14 + (0.38 X 96) = 14 + 36, 48 = 14 + 36 = 50 * (1 game to play)

Rosenborg played 2 games and made 0 points. Missed 120 points in the games not played.
Rosenborg = 0 + (0.39 X 120) = 0 + 46,8 = 47

Basel played also 2 games and made 0 points, missing 120 possible points.
Basel = 0 + (0.4 X 120) = 0 + 48 = 48

Panathinaikos played 5 games achieving 7 points and have no other to play. Missed 111 more potencial pts.
Panathinaikos = 7 + (0.41 X 111) = 7 + 45.51 = 7 + 46 = 53

Villarreal played no game so have 126 potential points for the 42 games of the league.
Villarreal = 0 + (0.42 X 126) = 0 + 52.82 = 53

Update not relevant for the relegation (already decided) and promotion (Fenerbache, Olympiakos and Schalke still big favourites) places. Sporting is the major potential challenger as done by know all points possible in the 4 games against clubs in EL2. But only the club that will make the major run (isolated on in a pair) at UC, from Sporting, Tottenham, Marseille, Rangers and Anderlecht will have a chance to finish better than one of the clubs at CL.
No clashes between clubs at ELs at UCR4.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 13-03-2008, 23:36
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 14-03-2008, 22:28

EL1 update, after:
Barcelona 1 – 0 Celtic
Manchester 1 – 0 Lyon
Real 1 – 2 Roma
Milan 0 – 2 Arsenal
Inter 1 – 1 Roma
Lyon 4 – 2 Bordeaux
Stuttgart 6 – 3 Bremen
And Celtic, Lyon, Porto, Madrid, Milan and Sevilla going out at CLR2 & Benfica and Bremen at UCR4.

Benfica and Bremen get the 6th and 7h lowest "leveles of success", that are 0.28 & 0.3
Benfica made less points than Bremen, so they get respectivly 0.28 & 0.29:
Bremen = 7 + (102 X 0.3) = 7 + 30.6 = 38
Benfica = 4 + (108 X 0.28) = 4 + 30.24 = 34* 1 game to play w/Porto

The clubs that lost at CLR2 get the 7th to 13rd "levels of success": 0.36 0.38 0.4 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48. The center point is 0.42, so:
Celtic, Lyon, Madrid, Porto, Milan, Inter, Sevilla get respectivly 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45

Celtic = 6 + (108 X 0.39) = 6 + 42.12 = 48
Lyon = 14 + (102 X 0.4) = 14 + 40,8 = 55
Madrid = 9 + (96 X 0.41) = 9 + 39.36 = 48 ***
Porto = 4 + (114 X 0.42) = 4 + 47,88 = 52 *
Milan = 8 + (96 X 0.43) = 8 + 41,28 = 49 **
Inter = 19 + (96 X 0.44) = 19 + 42,24 = 61 **
Sevilla = 16 + (96 X 0.45) = 16 + 43,2 = 59 **
* games to play

Benfica and Bremen get the 6th and 7h lowest "leveles of success", that are 0.28 & 0.3
Benfica made less points than Bremen, so they get respectivly 0.28 & 0.29:
Bremen = 7 + (102 X 0.3) = 7 + 30.6 = 38
Benfica = 4 + (108 X 0.28) = 4 + 30.24 = 34* 1 game to play w/Porto

So this is the table:

EL1
# Club (Games/Points) or final points.

1 Barcelona 10 23
2 Manchester 7 15
3 Liverpool 7 10
4 Arsenal 7 12
5 Roma 6 10
6 Chelsea 6 6
7 Inter 61 pts. **
8 Sevilla 59 pts. **
9 Lyon 55 pts.
10 Porto 52 pts. *
11 Milan 49 pts. **
12 Madrid 48 pts. ***
13 Celtic 48 pts.
14 PSV 4 6
15 Bayern 3 4
16 Bremen 38 pts.
17 Benfica 34 pts. *
--------------------------
18 Bordeaux 31 pts.
19 AEK 29 pts.
20 Stuttgart 26 pts. *
21 Valencia 22 pts. ***
22 CSKA 22 pts.

* = games missing

Some games in CLQF may count for this league, but not between the english clubs, as already are counted the national league games, much more a league game so better fo this prediction.
Bayern and PSV still can play at UC.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 14-03-2008, 00:01
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 14-03-2008, 00:04

After Olympiacos had been eliminated at CLR3 & Anderlecht, Marseille and Tottenham at UCR4.

Olympiacos get the 3rd "level of success" that is 0.56

Olympiacos = 6 + (114 X 0.56) = 6 + 63.84 = 70

Anderlecht, Marseille and Tottenham get the 6th to 8th places(0.46/0.48/0.5) being the center 0.48, so:
Anderlecht { Marseille { Tottenham get 0.47/0.48/0.49

Anderlecht = 1 + (117 X 0.47) = 3 + 54.99 = 58
Marseille = 3 + (120 X 0.48) = 3 + 57.6 = 61
Tottenham = 5 + (117 X 0.49) = 5 + 57.33= 63

S the table is:

EL2:
# Club Games Points

1 Sporting 4 12
2 Fenerbache 3 9
3 Schalke 2 6
-------------------------
4 Olympiacos 70 pts
5 Rangers 2 2
6 Tottenham 63 pts
7 Marseille 61 pts
8 Anderlecht 58 pts
9 Villarreal 53 pts
10 Panathinaikos 53 pts
11 Slavia 50 pts *
12 Basel 48 pts
13 Rosenborg 47 pts
14 Besiktas 39 pts *
15 Shakhtar 37 pts
16 Lazio 37 pts
17 Steaua 36 pts
18 D. Kiev 36 pts
----------------------------------
19 AZ 28 pts
20 Ajax 27 pts
21 Sparta P 26 pts *
22 Lokomotiv M 26 pts

* = games missing

Fenerbache and Schalke still can play each other, as well as Sporting and Rangers.
Fenerbache and Schalke are already promoted to EL1, but Olympiacos is not sure yet.