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Author: MartinW
Date: 05-12-2007, 02:59

So the current status of the teams qualified for the Last 16 is as follows. Teams in bold are qualified.

Seeded
Por/Mar/Liv/Bes
Chelsea
Mad/Oly/Bre/Laz
AC Milan
Barcelona
Manchester Utd
Inter
Sev/Ars

Unseeded
Por/Mar/Liv/Bes
Ros/Sch
Mad/Oly/Bre/Laz
Celtic
Ran/Lyo
Roma
Fen/PSV
Sev/Ars

Bert - I noticed on your "Seeding CL" page you have put the points earned by each club which will count for the seeding in the QF draw. However I think you have included the 1 bonus point for Milan and Celtic qualifying for the Last 16 by mistake. This should not count for this ranking.

Also the teams dropping into the UC Last 32 are as follows:
Por/Mar/Liv/Bes
Ros/Sch/Val
Mad/Oly/Bre/Laz
Benfica
Ran/Lyo
Sporting L
Fen/PSV
Slavia P

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: bert.kassies Date: 05-12-2007, 10:53	MartinW, thanks for feedback. Fixed now.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Cirdan Date: 05-12-2007, 12:24	@MartinW: Lazio cannot win their group and get seeded in the round of 16. If they win, they have 8 points, if Bremen wins in the other match, they have 9 points, if Bremen draws or loses, Olympiakos will have 9 or 11 points.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: MartinW Date: 05-12-2007, 13:44	Cirdan: Yes you are right. I got carried away thinking that all eventualities are possible in both Groups A and C.

Author: jpcccc
Date: 05-12-2007, 20:40
Edited by: jpcccc
at: 05-12-2007, 20:42

I believe Besiktas can't drop to Uefa Cup because being 3rd is the only thing that can't happen. It either wins to be 1st or 2nd OR it draws/loses and is hopelessly 4th because they lose in goals both to Liverpool and Marseille.

As i've said on another topic, the most interesting scenario for group A is this:
imagine Besiktas winning in Porto by one goal and the other game in a draw, both games a few minutes from the end. The result is 1.Bes 2.Liv 3.Mar 4.Por
Yet, if Porto scores to draw, that single goal turns everything upside down and it becomes 1.Por 2.Mar 3.Liv 4.Bes.
Surely, it could also be the other way around. The perfect scenario for drama. There are other interesting ones involving Liverpool and OM getting in and out of a draw.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: MartinW Date: 06-12-2007, 03:12	Here is the updated list based on the comments pointed out above: Seeded Por/Mar/Liv/Bes Chelsea Mad/Oly/Bre AC Milan Barcelona Manchester Utd Inter Sev/Ars Unseeded Por/Mar/Liv/Bes Ros/Sch Mad/Oly/Bre/Laz Celtic Ran/Lyo Roma Fen/PSV Sev/Ars To UEFA Cup Por/Mar/Liv Ros/Sch/Val Mad/Oly/Bre/Laz Benfica Ran/Lyo Sporting L Fen/PSV Slavia P

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: hooped Date: 06-12-2007, 12:18	do the unseeded teams play their first game at home? also, will uefa switch this order if there are two teams from the same city either seeded or unseeded? if rangers qualify, this would theoretically mean games on consecutive nights in glasgow, however i don't think the police would allow this.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 06-12-2007, 12:38

They wont (or shouldn't) change the home/away order (as this would be unfair to the group winner) but they might change the dates.

In 2005-06 Inter & Milan were both group winners & Inter played their second leg match a week later than everyone else.

If both Celtic & Rangers were runners-up and it really wasn't possible to play two football matches in the same city in 24 hours (which is ridiculous to me) then I guess one could play on 12 February - as this week is reserved for UEFA Cup games anyway.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: hooped Date: 06-12-2007, 12:56	why ridiculous? seems a fair enough position for the police to take, that they don't want two different sets of football fans in the city at the same time.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: badgerboy Date: 06-12-2007, 13:05	Maybe I'm mistaken/uninformed about the number of fans that travel well in advance of European games. I'd have thought the vast majority of fans who had come to see their teams play on a Tuesday night would've long gone before those coming for the Wednesday one had arrived.

Author: racing
Date: 06-12-2007, 17:53

jppccc said:

'As i've said on another topic, the most interesting scenario for group A is this:
imagine Besiktas winning in Porto by one goal and the other game in a draw, both games a few minutes from the end. The result is 1.Bes 2.Liv 3.Mar 4.Por
Yet, if Porto scores to draw, that single goal turns everything upside down and it becomes 1.Por 2.Mar 3.Liv 4.Bes. '

- that is quite an intense scenario! imagine then if besiktas scores again!

Author: MartinW
Date: 07-12-2007, 04:07

There could be 3 different pairs of teams from the same city with this problem:
Celtic and Rangers (both unseeded)
Inter and Milan (both seeded)
Arsenal and Chelsea (both seeded)

Does this mean we could have 3 of the 8 matches rescheduled to a different date? Of course there is no way Inter and Milan can play at the same time because they share a stadium.

For Chelsea and Arsenal it is obviously not considered a problem because lasy year they both played at home in the second leg of the Last 16 on conescutive nights. But then London is a much larger city and the two grounds are not that close to each other really. I guess it will also not cause any fixture rearrangement this year.

For Celtic and Rangers there is no precedent to say what will happen. However my guess is that due to the Old Firm reputation for passionate fans and because the grounds are very close and Glasgow is a smaller city, they will probably make one of the teams play a week earlier.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: mick58 Date: 08-12-2007, 00:19 Edited by: mick58 at: 08-12-2007, 00:22	as a celtic supporter, there is no reason whatsoever why the games ( celtic and rangers) could not be played on consecutive nights if it happens that way. the grounds are miles apart and the supporters from the first game ( whoever is involved) would be long gone before the night after.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Cirdan Date: 08-12-2007, 08:16	This happened two times each for Inter/AC Milan and Chelsea/Arsenal in the last 5 years. Chelsea and Arsenal (seperate stadiums) played on consecutive nights, Inter and Milan (share stadium) had 1 match played a week later. Since Celtic and Rangers don't share a stadium I doubt that a match will be played earlier, however if the clubs or the Glasgow Police see problems with security, they might.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: mick58 Date: 08-12-2007, 13:30	the only problem in glasgow playing consecutive days, would be with away supporters having overlapping visits, which to be fair, depending on who they were could be a problem

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: exile Date: 08-12-2007, 19:32	In 1972 Celtic and Rangers both played semifinals on the same night, with a total attendance of 155,000. And in 1948 they played Scottish Cup semifinals on the same day, with 220,000 attending!

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 11-12-2007, 19:58

@badgerboy

I don't know how it works with other teams, but for AZ. Most of the fans will at least travel 1 day before the match is being played. So I think this is the case for most clubs, so then when there are matches on Tuesday and Wednesday at least on the Tuesday fans of both visiting teams will be around.
Most of the fans of the Tuesday match will leave on Wednesday, so no problems on that day, but on Tuesday there might be problems (depending on what teams play of course, most fans don't make a problem at all).

Author: MartinW
Date: 12-12-2007, 09:25

Here is the updated list with only the final 8 matches remaining.

Seeded
Porto
Chelsea
Real Madrid
AC Milan
Barcelona
Manchester Utd
Inter
Sev/Ars

Unseeded
Liverpool
Schalke
Olympiakos
Celtic
Ran/Lyo
Roma
Fen/PSV
Sev/Ars

To UEFA Cup
Marseille
Rosenborg
W Bremen
Benfica
Ran/Lyo
Sporting L
Fen/PSV
Slavia P

Only 3 questions left to solve:
a) Sevilla or Arsenal 1st or 2nd?
b) Rangers or Lyon to last 16?
c) Fenerbahce or PSV to last 16?

Author: jpcccc
Date: 12-12-2007, 17:23
Edited by: jpcccc
at: 12-12-2007, 17:32

Since Liverpool cannot draw Porto, neither a English team, neither a runner-up and will play first at home, we'll have in round 2 Liverpool at home against either Real Madrid, Milan, Inter or Barcelona. Sevilla might also get into the picture if it gets first place tonight.

Anyway, that will be the 'big' game.

Of course, if Arsenal gets 2nd it will have a similar problem but instead of drawing Sevilla it can draw Porto (clearly the most wanted in pot 1).

Roma can also have its options reduced to all but Milan, Inter and Manchester, that is Real, Porto, Barcelona, Chelsea and Sevilla/Arsenal.

I guess these are the three matches that mainly constrain the draw.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 12-12-2007, 19:25

Can anyone recall/remind me what the draw procedure is?

I'm thinking of "paired teams" if they still exist or at least the teams from the same city mentioned earlier. Actually I guess "paired teams" also apply for TV purposes so there will always be two English teams playing on Tuesday & two on Wednesday etc....

Are these issues sorted out at the time of the draw - or later? I assume this has to be done at the time of the draw to avoid anomalies. So games A-D to be played on a Tuesday with the return legs on Wednesday & E-H the other way round.

So - a simulated draw which assumes Fenerbahce & Rangers qualify tonight & Sevilla win their group. Also assuming the seeded teams are drawn first. For "simplicity" I've also allocated the drawn team to the first available group - though I believe UEFA draw a separate ball for this.

Barcelona - all games possible - so game A.
Real Madrid - paired with Barcelona so have to go to E.
Internazionale - six groups possible - B.
Milan - paired with Inter so have to go to F.
Porto - C.
Sevilla - D.
Manchester United - G
Chelsea - H.

Now the unseeded teams:

Fenerbahce - all games possible except B - (A) Fenerbahce v Barcelona
Olympiakos - can't go to B, C or D as these spots are now reserved for Arsenal, Liverpool & one Scottish team. Can't play Real Madrid again so has to play Milan - (F) Olympiakos v Milan.
Celtic - B is possible - (B) Celtic v Internazionale.

At this point it must also automatically be Arsenal v Porto (C)& Sevilla v Liverpool (D) because the two English teams must be in the opposite half to Chelsea & Manchester United & can't play the same opponents again.

Rangers - no problem with any of the remaining three options so (E) -Rangers v Real Madrid.

At this point the draw is over as it also has to be Manchester United-Schalke (G) & Chelsea-Roma (H).

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 12-12-2007, 19:38
Edited by: Forza-AZ
at: 12-12-2007, 19:44

Are these issues sorted out at the time of the draw - or later? I assume this has to be done at the time of the draw to avoid anomalies. So games A-D to be played on a Tuesday with the return legs on Wednesday & E-H the other way round.

In the draw so far only has been taken into account that teams from the same group and same country can't draw each other. It's not that the first 4 games drawn will play there matches on the same day. That is only determined after the draw. And then they of course take into account that teams from the same country are split equally over the 2 days.
Don't think you can run into a problem there, since there are also a lot countries with 1 or 3 teams, so you have a lot of freedom there.

And in the draw they in fact not draw a team and then look which teams they can play, but they first look which teams can be drawn in that match and then draw from these teams, and they start with the unseeded teams (if I remember correctly), since they play the 1st leg at home.

So for instance they draw Liverpool first. Then they see which teams they can play (so excluding Manchester United, Chelsea and Porto). Take 5 balls from the remaining 5 teams and then draw 1 team out of that.
At the end it can get a bit more complicated as it can happen that a team can still draw all remaining seeded teams, but restrictions of the last unseeded teams still in, still give a restiction of that draw.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: MartinW Date: 13-12-2007, 05:48	Bert - Another comment about your seeding for the CL QF draw. At the moment for the teams equal on points you have just ordered them alphabetically. Actually the second rule should be the overall seeding co-efficient, is there any chance you can sort by this? As there are 5 teams all equal on 8 points it makes quite a difference what the second sorting factor should be.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: bert.kassies Date: 13-12-2007, 09:01	MartinW, that would be nice. But for the time being the quarter-final seeding list on Seeding in the Champions League 2007/2008 is just a filter on the current yearly team coefficient table. This filter consists of a set of rules, but has no knowledge of the 5-year ranking. The link to the team ranking 2007 is just above the table.

Author: Francisco
Date: 13-12-2007, 10:15

Just remembered something to add to the conditions of the CL draw:

After the draw UEFA has to draw which Milan team will play the 1st leg at home! Since both Milan and Inter are group winners one must play the 1st leg at home since both play in the same stadium...

Last time this happened it was Inter that played at home in the 1st leg... maybe UEFA should just do a rule that determines a regular order for these 2: Intet-Milan-Inter-Milan...

Author: badgerboy
Date: 13-12-2007, 11:57

Francisco

Are you sure about this?

In the past they changed the dates rather than reversing fixtures. See 2005-06 - when Inter v Ajax was played a week later than the other second legs.

That would make sense again. The only slight drawback is that the draw for the quarter-finals & semi-finals is due on 7 March. But then there is no "country protection" any more & I vaguely seem to remember the draw in 2005-06 containing an Inter or Ajax option.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Ricardo Date: 13-12-2007, 12:12	I thkn they already did it twice: move the Inter match. Maybe that was one of the reasons to make the CL 1/16th matches in teh future done in 2 weeks, as these 2 keep coming back

Author: Francisco
Date: 13-12-2007, 17:04

I remember that many seasons ago, Inter played the 1st leg at home...

I had forgotten about the other solution (postponing the game 1 week) which was used more recently...

Still in my mind playing one week later doesn't seem fair... I think last time that happened Inter had to play in a wednesday than weekend than tuesday/wednesday for the next round and then again in the weekend again for national league... In terms of resting it was unfair for Inter (or his opponent)...

Author: badgerboy
Date: 13-12-2007, 18:00

Maybe it's only because I'm English - so used to busy fixture lists.

But to me asking any club to play once at the weekend & once in midweek isn't unreasonable at all - every week of the season.

The biggest clubs should have squads to cope with this and even for those that don't it doesn't seem an incredible amount to ask of players.

Three hours of actual football per week - maybe three and a half if a cup game goes to extra time. Is this really too much to ask?

This is one thing I don't really get between modern football & the stuff they used to play twenty odd years ago.

Yes the game is much, much faster now. But then supposedly the players are fitter - have better diets & training regimes to cater for this. There are more games in the fixture calendar - but then it was relatively normal for clubs to play a season back then with a core of 15 or 16 players rather than the gargantuan squads they tend to have now. There were 42 league games in England (4 more than now) and Cup games could go to an infinite number of replays. So for a very successful club still quite a lot of games.

I'm sure they used to moan about the number of games back then too. But then they weren't pocketing anything up to �720 per minute of effort (or sometimes no effort) for playing the game they love.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: MartinW Date: 19-12-2007, 02:11	The draw is on Friday 21 December at 12:00 CET.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: hooped Date: 19-12-2007, 18:17	can anyone confirm the actual draw procedure? will arsenal, liverpool, and roma be placed in a separate pot to be drawn first?

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 19-12-2007, 20:03

Yes, there will be 2 pots. 1 with the runners-up (Arsenal, Liverpool, AS Roma etc.) and 1 with the groupwinners.
They will first draw1 team from the "runners-up Pot", then look which opponents from the "group-winners Pot" they can draw (not a team that was in their group and not a team from the same country). Take 1 ball of all possible opponents and draw 1 from that.
Then this is repeated for the other runners-up. In the end this might result in no draw at all since there can be only 1 possibility left.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Cirdan Date: 21-12-2007, 12:22	Horrible draw for Italy... And a nice one for Germany. Porto is the favourite, but I think they are not impossible to beat for Schalke. This is starting to give me hope for a fight for 3rd place in 2010

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: badgerboy Date: 21-12-2007, 12:39	Celtic v Barcelona Lyon v Manchester United Schalke v FC Porto Liverpool v Internazionale Roma v Real Madrid Arsenal v Milan Olympiakos v Chelsea Fenerbahce v Sevilla Tough draws for Celtic & Olympiakos - although the sort of games these teams dream of in the CL. I'd say the teams in the other six ties would be equally happy/unhappy with their chances.

Author: exile
Date: 21-12-2007, 13:03

Celtic, Fenerbahce and Olympiakos - about 20% chance of progressing
Lyon - 30%
All other ties about 50-50

Schalke and Porto must be pleased to be meeting each other

Next round seeding

Man U, Barcelona, Inter and Sevilla are top of the
seedings at the moment

A Man U - Barcelona final looks most likely at the moment, relatively easy draws and probably seeded in the next round (mind you the UNSEEDED teams might be, say, Arsenal, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Porto.... with no country protection either)

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Enrique Date: 21-12-2007, 13:07	Lucky Spain! England 50/50 Italy very unlucky Agree with Cirdan...Italy is facing some tough games, which might be good for Germany. Schalke-Porto might be the most unpredictable game. My guess for QF: Barcelona ManU Schalke Inter Real Arsenal Chelsea Sevilla

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Cirdan Date: 21-12-2007, 13:30	To be honest, I don't really believe that Germany will grab 3rd place from Italy in the next 5 years, but it might get close enough to hope again

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: 1923 Date: 21-12-2007, 14:30	not bad draw for Fenerbah�e, especially while the last 2 remaining seeded teams were Chelsea and Sevilla :-) ... and Olympiakos got the unlucky draw, letting Sevilla to come Fenerbah�e

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: seleucus Date: 21-12-2007, 14:35	Celtic v Barcelona 30% - 70% Lyon v Manchester United 35% - 65% Schalke v FC Porto 40% - 60% (remember that FC Porto has more experience at this stage) Liverpool v Internazionale 50% - 50% Roma v Real Madrid 40% - 60% Arsenal v Milan 50% - 50% Olympiakos v Chelsea 30% - 70% Fenerbahce v Sevilla 45% - 55%

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Aliceag Date: 21-12-2007, 14:56	Very pleasing draw!! My dream one. Almost all Porto Fans wanted or Shalke or Celtic. If the games were today I'd say Porto would win easily both of them: home and away. In February hope the shapes still keep the same, so we can cruise to the Quarters. Italy had what they deserved, I guess. A fire test!

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: joaol Date: 21-12-2007, 14:59 Edited by: joaol at: 21-12-2007, 15:00	Celtic v Barcelona 35% - 65% Lyon v Manchester United 30% - 70% Schalke v FC Porto 30% - 70% Liverpool v Internazionale 50% - 50% Roma v Real Madrid 35% - 65% Arsenal v Milan 45% - 55% Olympiakos v Chelsea 30% - 70% Fenerbahce v Sevilla 60% - 40%

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: honesty Date: 21-12-2007, 16:04	Celtic v Barcelona 35% - 65% Lyon v Manchester United 50% - 50% Schalke v FC Porto 71% - 29% Liverpool v Internazionale 40% - 60% Roma v Real Madrid 50% - 50% Arsenal v Milan 35% - 65% Olympiakos v Chelsea 0% - 100% Fenerbahce v Sevilla 70% - 30%

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: AlanK Date: 21-12-2007, 16:27	To honesty, Dios mio, chaval--do you bet cash money on predictions such as Schalke-Oporto and Fenerbahce-Sevilla? For the sake of your continued prosperity, I hope not. Not to exaggerate, but the percentages would look more realistic if you reversed them (Schalke-Oporto 29%-71%; Fenerbahce-Sevilla 30%-70%). But hey, everyone is entitled to an opinion, as bcpd reminds us . . .

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: joaol Date: 21-12-2007, 16:31	@alank with porto i agree with u, however i think fenerbac has a great team and r playing great footbal it is gonna be a thigh match but i also bet on fenerbace

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: walter-wade Date: 21-12-2007, 16:37	very bad draw for fenerbahce..i think they are faced with the secret favourite of the title..sevilla was the second team i hadn't hope after manchaster united...

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: cankanal Date: 21-12-2007, 16:51	Fenerbah�e has power to eleminate Sevilla I think

Author: AlanK
Date: 21-12-2007, 17:33

So Fenerbahce-Sevilla seems like a great topic for our "hot stove league"--opinions are pretty strong. Admittedly I'm 100% for the Spanish teams, which leads to inevitable bias; having followed Sevilla very closely over the last three years, I think this was their best possible draw. Based on current form, I think Sevilla would have been a match for any of the possible draws. The one worrying factor, as has been mentioned elsewhere on the forum, is that their performance in the league hasn't been up to snuff. We'll see a lot more league results before the end of February; if they beat Santander on Sunday, they'll probably be eighth going into the Christmas break. And they play Barsa in Sevilla on Feb. 10 . . .

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: skivaz Date: 21-12-2007, 17:39	i just heard from an interview to Milan representative that for this year the idea of seeding teams in QF has been abandoned, so it will be still like the lst years with no country protection and no seeding. i don't know how accurate is the news but he reported as sure during the interviews foolowing the draw

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: badgerboy Date: 21-12-2007, 17:54	I might be wrong but I thought that this seeding aspect was written into the regulations. If it is then it would seem unlikely (if not plain wrong) that they should change it half way through. Maybe it's already been ditched for next season? But then running it for one season & then cancelling it even before that season is over doesn't seem like much of an experiment.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: honesty Date: 21-12-2007, 19:19 Edited by: honesty at: 21-12-2007, 20:01	@AlanK please don`t personalize the message it`s not only me that thinks that Shalke and Fener are the favorites. I don`t bet money ! There are more factors that determine the winners now a days. One of them are bet houses others are Juventus. Do u know a player of Fenerbahce to speak in their name? P.S. u saw Sevilia -Sahtior last year?

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: eldaec Date: 22-12-2007, 13:38 Edited by: eldaec at: 22-12-2007, 13:39	Celtic v Barcelona 10% - 90% Lyon v Manchester United 25% - 75% Schalke v FC Porto 48% - 52% Liverpool v Internazionale 51% - 49% Roma v Real Madrid 25% - 75% Arsenal v Milan 60% - 40% Olympiakos v Chelsea 15% - 85% Fenerbahce v Sevilla 30% - 70% Betfair odds currently favour Arsenal, Barca, Sevilla, Inter, ManU, Chelsea, Real and Porto.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: VfB1981 Date: 22-12-2007, 13:40	Celtic - Barcelona 20/80 Lyon - Manchester 30/70 Schalke - Porto 40/60 Liverpool - Inter 50/50 Roma - Real Madrid 40/60 Arsenal - Milan 50/50 Olympiakos - Chelsea 20/80 Fenerbahce - Sevilla 30/70 Very tough draw for Italian teams. Good draw for Spanish teams. Maybe 4 English and 3 Spanish teams in the quarter finals?

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: skivaz Date: 23-12-2007, 09:40	Badgerboy, i don't see any part of this rule in the regulations, in art.8 (Seeding) it stops at the first knock-out stage. If you found some real informations about it please post a link.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: badgerboy Date: 23-12-2007, 12:37 Edited by: badgerboy at: 23-12-2007, 12:40	You've forced me to look it up now & much to my surprise I can't see it anywhere at all in the regulations. I guess I must have made the fatal error of assuming - because it's been talked about so much on here - it must be in the regulations. So much so that I'd probably have bet (a small sum) of money that I'd personally read it there at some point.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: bert.kassies Date: 23-12-2007, 14:01	Hmm, now I really get lost. Did you look at Regulations of the UEFA Champions League 2007/2008? Article 6.09 and 6.10 clearly mention the seeded draws for QF and SF.

Author: Overgame
Date: 23-12-2007, 14:24

Quarter-finals
6.09 The eight winners of the first knockout round contest the quarter-finals. The quarter-final pairings are determined by means of a draw. The quarter-finals are played under the cup (knock-out) system, on a home-and-away basis (two legs). The team which scores the greater aggregate of goals in the two matches qualifies for the semi-finals. Otherwise, the stipulations of Article 7 apply.

Semi-finals
6.10 The four winners of the quarter-finals contest the semi-finals. The semi-final pairings are determined by means of a draw. The semi-finals are played under the cup (knock-out) system, on a home-and-away basis (two legs). The team which scores the greater aggregate of goals in the two matches qualifies for the final. Otherwise, the stipulations of Article 7 apply.

bert : am i missing something ? Nothing about seeding here

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 23-12-2007, 15:39

Sorry, I forgot to mention that the seeding part is in article 8.07 (which is mentioned in art. 6.09):

"8.07 The UEFA administration shall seed clubs for the quarter-final and semi-final"draws on the basis of the clubs� sporting results in the group and first knockout stage (eight matches). The performance table is compiled in accordance with the points calculation system used for the club coefficients (i.e. two points for a win, one point for a draw, no points for a defeat). If two or more clubs are equal on points, the accumulated coefficients of each club in question and its respective association over the previous five seasons will be used to determine the rankings (see 8.02).
The four highest ranked clubs will be seeded and will be assigned a fixed position from 1 to 4 according to their ranking. These four clubs will be drawn against the unseeded quarter-finalists in accordance with the principles set by the Club Competitions Committee.

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 23-12-2007, 15:50

Now it really gets interesting. It seems that UEFA changed the rules. I always use my own copy to check the regulations. See my copy of CL 2007/08 regulations as published by uefa.com at 23/06/2007.

I am absolutely sure that this document was published at the same link as above. And there was no indication of a preliminary version.

Now I have many questions. Did UEFA change the rules silently? Did anybody observe any publication on this subject? When did they change the rules? During the season? Was it not Platini who said he favors this kind of seeding?

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: pit Date: 23-12-2007, 18:37 Edited by: pit at: 23-12-2007, 18:37	As I have a downloaded a copy of the "old" regulations, I checked the properties of the two files: old file (qf and sf seeding article included) (I believe I downloaded it on 16th June) - created on 5th April, modified on 24th May new file (I downloaded it today): created and modified on 13th December

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: bert.kassies Date: 23-12-2007, 19:50	Thanks, pit. I also checked the UC 2007/08 regulations at uefa.com. That document still has the original dates. So, we can conclude that UEFA silently changed the rules during the last month. What to say. Never thought this would be possible. Maybe we should make an automated daily check on differences between uefa.com versions of the regulations.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: amirbachar Date: 23-12-2007, 23:46	I think something bad is going on with UEFA. First Azerbijan case and now this. What happened to "fairness comes first"?

Author: Enrique
Date: 24-12-2007, 02:26

Well, what could be the reason for changing the seeding procedure half way through the season? I agree with badgerboy. There must be a significant reason, otherwise they would have carried on with it and maybe changed it next year.

I personally like the idea of no seeding procedure for QF's, but that doesn't solve the "mistery".

Maybe it doesn't work? Does it create too many potential clashes in cities with more than one team?
Did some teams complain about the procedure?
Or did they discover that the original proposal was simply rubbish?

Theoretically the 8 teams for QF could be all 8 group winners. Then the difference in points between the teams is relatively small and highly depends on how strong your group was. Seeding the 8 teams based on points earned during group stage would then be meaningless. Because having a lot of points doesn't necessarily mean that your the better team.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 24-12-2007, 11:42

Oh good - I wasn't going mad after all!

I thought the main point of seeding for the quarter-finals was to give a slight (possibly very slight) incentive to teams who had already won their CL groups to carry on winning (or trying to win).

I agree that the strength of the teams in the QF should be relatively equal & no great advantage is likely to come from being seeded or not seeded.

But at this point the issue is surely one of "principle". As a few have already pointed out (including me) it's ludicrous that the regulations can be changed part way through a season.

Of course I suppose it could be that someone working at UEFA did accidentally publish draft regulations at the start of the year - thinking they were the final version. And someone just noticed the error...

But given skivaz's original post about the Milan officials saying the rule had been "changed" this would seem unlikely. Possibly someone doesn't like the rule & it went as part of some kind of secret "compromise" in the negotiations for 2009-10?

Whatever the reasons it would seem to set a dangerous precedent - and a fairly unnecessary one. What could be the harm of keeping the rule for at least one season?

Author: jpcccc
Date: 26-12-2007, 02:30

As title holder, Milan was probably one of the teams that didn't like that rule. Looking at current position of Milan in that ranking (see Bert's Seeding for CL in this site) it would probably be 5th and unseeded.

Assume ManU, Inter, Barcelona and Sevilla all go through and performance of Milan is similar in next round. Title holder unseeded. Worse: Milan doesn't depend on its performance in last 16 (but on other's unlikely failure) to get the seeded spot back. And that means getting only 2 points back maximum. Or losing them.

Well, the title holder being unseeded in QF only because it lost at Celtic is somewhat far-fetched and unfair. Overall, that meant CL group phase is far more decisive for QF seeding than the two games of last 16. THAT is not a good rule for seeding.

So, although i'm a bit shocked that UEFA has changed the rules after starting the season, there's a very good reason: the rule is unfair when it values a match in group phase as equal to a match in knock-out stage. Seedings become rigid after group phase and that's worst than no seeding at all.

Or maybe we'll see a new rule next year in which knock-out matches get a bonus (so that a team might be able to change its seeding status on those two games). Or maybe group phase counts half, just like qualies.

Author: dzomba
Date: 26-12-2007, 08:41

I am sad if that rule is really abandoned. I don't want to watch games in the sixth round of a group stage, where a team who already qualified play with the B team.

Group winners don't have an advantage at all (playing second leg at home in the first knock out round is nothing important). I hoped it would finally be important to finish first in a group, and to have more points.
Only thing i would change in this rule is to add 1 bonus point for a group winner.

That rule would force all teams to fight for first place and to fight for every point, i am so sad that it won't apply ...

Author: Overgame
Date: 26-12-2007, 11:56

"I am sad if that rule is really abandoned. I don't want to watch games in the sixth round of a group stage, where a team who already qualified play with the B team."

That happens in the UC, when a team is qualified and is not sure of the first place, and seeding is really important in the UC.

Group winners have an huge advantage in the 1/8 : they are playing the second placed teams ! Look at Sevilla and Arsenal, Porto and Liverpool, Barcelona and Lyon : the second of the group is playing a favourite.

In quarter, i don't see why 4 teams should be seeded and 4 not. If you are in a weak group (weak 3rd and 4th teams). Let's take Porto : you cannot unseed them and seed Sevilla based on the results in the group :p

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: amirbachar Date: 26-12-2007, 19:56	Maybe it's better not to have seeding in the quater finals, but they were still wrong to change it in the middle of the season (if that is what really happened)

Author: mabo
Date: 27-12-2007, 01:59
Edited by: mabo
at: 27-12-2007, 02:02

Of course I suppose it could be that someone working at UEFA did accidentally publish draft regulations at the start of the year - thinking they were the final version. And someone just noticed the error...

You are right.

According to uefadirect (No 62 - June 2007 - page 11) the Executive Committee rejected the proposal to modify the draw procedure for the quarter-finals at its meeting in April.
The idea has not been dismissed once and for all, but will be put before the European Professional Football Strategy Council.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: bert.kassies Date: 27-12-2007, 13:08	mabo, thanks. So it is just a mistake.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: qaraenn Date: 27-12-2007, 17:11	Celtic - Barcelona Lyon - Manchester Schalke - Porto Liverpool - Inter Roma - Real Madrid Arsenal - Milan Olympiakos - Chelsea Fenerbahce - Sevilla

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Malko Date: 27-12-2007, 17:35	quarenn, i suppose in bold are your favorites. Would be nice Lyon would pass :-)

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: amirbachar Date: 27-12-2007, 22:45 Edited by: amirbachar at: 27-12-2007, 22:45	Oh, in this case it was a good decision not to seed the QF and SF draws since the group stage strength could impact too much the seeding.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Malko Date: 28-12-2007, 11:18	Maybe a Group-Stage second (Lyon or Arsenal) ist stronger than some group-winners in other groups. So they could have taken the Team-Ranking, put the 8 "strongest" teams in one pot, the others in the other.....

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: Overgame Date: 28-12-2007, 12:15	"So they could have taken the Team-Ranking, put the 8 "strongest" teams in one pot, the others in the other....." No, no and NO. If a team isn't able to win their group, they shouldn't be in pot A, end of the story. If we're using your system, Liverpool would be seeded and not Porto, and Arsenal seeded but Sevilla not. Something is wrong, isn't it ?

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: qaraenn Date: 01-01-2008, 22:36	Malko, I think Lyon has a great potantial. Maybe lots of people expect Manu wins but not you and me.

Re: CL Last 16 (Seeding and Draw)
Author: MalcolmW Date: 02-01-2008, 12:18	dzomba said: "Group winners don't have an advantage at all (playing second leg at home in the first knock out round is nothing important)." This is not borne out by results. Over the last 4 seasons 6, 5. 6 again, and 7 of the 8 group winners have qualified. Was this simply because they were group winners playing against runners-up, or because they were group winners playing second legs at home??

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 02-01-2008, 12:49
Edited by: Lyonnais
at: 02-01-2008, 12:52

over the last 3 seasons, 10 out of the 18 quarters and semis winners played the first leg away (thus, 8 winners played the first leg at home). Pretty balanced.
I believe that studies have already shown that playing at home the second leg was not a specific advantage.

So, to reply to your question, I presume that being a group winner was a much more significant criteria than playing the secong leg at home.

This said, I believe that playing the second leg at home is a real advantage if you go to the penalty kicks. I don't remember the stats over a long period of time to get enough data, but that was significant enough (and over the last 3 seasons, the 2 penalty kicks winners in quarters and semis, Liverpool vs. Chelsea and PSV vs. Lyon, were playing at home).

Author: Dragonite
Date: 02-01-2008, 13:13

To really big teams, playing at home or away is irrelevant.

�Home factor� plays a big role in a team like Celtic- they are great at home and awful away.

Back to the subject of �should the quarter finals draw have seeded teams?�

I think the answer is no.

I mean, Manchester United already benefited from having the EASIEST group stage (thus finishing top of the group with the most points, 16)� Now they have a though knockout stage against Lyon, but if they can eliminate Lyon, in the quarters they will, once again, face the �easiest� team left (if we can still call �easy� to any of the 8 teams left)??!! This is very unfair�

This would be fairer if the 8 groups were evenly balanced- is this possible??

Under the current rules, with 33% of club ranking coming from country ranking, I don�t think it is.

I like the idea of an exclusive CL ranking (no points from UEFA Cup, no country ranking, and 3 points per win)� but this ranking wouldn�t create �balanced� groups too, as long as teams like Atletico Madrid (zero points in this ranking) went directly to pot 4, while teams like Steaua (6 points in this ranking) could go to pot 3.

I guess there will always be �easier� and �harder� groups and even the idea of �easy and hard� can be wrong�

I considered that Group A (Liverpool, FC Porto, Marseille and Besiktas) would be an �easy ride� for the first two, but the other two fought until the last match day for qualification.

I expected Group G (Inter, PSV, CSKA and Fenerbah�e) to be the most �balanced� group but it ended up being an �easy ride� for Inter and Fenerbah�e.

I think it would be much better if they re-introduced an 2nd round group stages (just like in 1999/2000-2002/2003), then group winners vs. group runners up in the quarters, followed by un-seeded semi finals.