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Euro Leagues 07/08 simulation (III)
Author: porto-1978
Date: 03-12-2007, 15:34 		After:
Liverpool 4 - 1 Porto
Bremen 3 - 2 Real Madrid
Lyon 2 - 2 Barcelona
CSKA Moskva 0 - 1 PSV
Sevilla 3 - 1 Arsenal
Benfica 1 - 1 Milan
Benfica 0 - 1 Porto

EL1: (games/points)
Sevilla 7 15
Inter 4 12
Barcelona 4 10
Lyon 5 10
Manchester 3 7
Celtic 3 6
PSV 3 6
Madrid 4 6
Bremen 4 6
Liverpool 4 6
Arsenal 4 5
Chelsea 3 4
Porto 3 4
Milan 4 4
Benfica 5 4
Bayern 1 3
Roma 3 3
Bordeaux 1 0
AEK 2 0
Valência 3 0
Stuttgart 4 0 *
CSKA 4 0 *

* already relegated at CLGS

Re: Euro Leagues 07/08 simulation (III)
Author: porto-1978
Date: 03-12-2007, 15:37
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 03-12-2007, 15:40		After:
Besiktas 2 - 1 Marseille
Lazio 1 - 2 Olympiacos
Steaua 1 - 1 Slavia

EL2: (games/points)
Slavia 5 13
Fenerbache 3 9
Olympiakos 3 5
------------------------
Sporting 1 3
Schalke 1 3
Marseille 2 3
Besiktas 3 3
Ajax 3 3 ***
Shakhtar 1 1
Panathinaikos 1 1
Lazio 2 1
Steaua 2 1 *
D. Kiev 2 1 *
Rangers 0 0
Villarreal 0 0
Tottenham 0 0
Basel 0 0
Lokomotiv M 0 0
-----------------------
Rosenborg 1 0
AZ 1 0
Sparta 1 0
Anderlecht 2 0

* already relegated at CLGS
*** already relegated at UCR1

EL1 update
Author: porto-1978
Date: 14-12-2007, 22:26
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 15-12-2007, 00:49		After:
Milan 1 - 0 Celtic
Chelsea 0 - 0 Valencia
Barcelona 3 - 1 Stuttgart
AS Roma 1 - 1 Manchester U.
PSV Eindhoven 0 - 1 Inter Milan
Stuttgart 3-1 Bayern

table: games / points
Inter 5 15
Sevilla 7 15
Barcelona 5 13
Lyon 5 10
Manchester 4 8
Milan 5 7
Madrid 4 6
PSV 4 6
Liverpool 4 6
Celtic 4 6
Bremen 4 6
Chelsea 4 5
Arsenal 4 5
Porto 3 4
Roma 4 4
Benfica 5 4
Bayern 2 3
------------------
Stuttgart 6 3 * out at CLGS
Valencia 4 1 * out at CLGS
Bordeaux 1 0
AEK 2 0
CSKA 4 0 * out at CLGS

From the 3 clubs not in CL (Bordeaux, AEK and Bayer) only 2 (AEK and Bayern) can still be out in UCGS. With 5 relegation places on this league (for this season) that means all 3 clubs already out of Europe (CSKA, Stuttgart and Valencia) will be relegated.
Only the 13 EL clubs in the Last16 of CL are safe from relegation. The other relegation places, if AEK and Bayern don?t fail, will be decided at UC, with the 2 first to go out on UC geting the worst coefficient to be multiplied for the points in question in the EL ties that will not be played this season and consequently probably going out.

Examples for the clubs out in CLGS, in case no club in EL get eliminated at UCGS:

To get the final points for each club i add to the points earned in the games played to a Points Expected (PE), that i get by this Formula:

PE = Pm x LofS

Pm = Number of points a club could win in the games missing

LofS = Level of success of a team in real European competitions happening, putting in order the 22 clubs in terms of their success. For the worst i give 0.1 and to the second worst 0.125, to the third 1.150 and always with the same 0.025 interval the best get 6.25.

In this case (if AEK and Bayern really progress) the worst Level of Success is failing at CLGS. But not just one but 3 teams enter on that cathegory. The mean point between the 3 worst "Lofs" is 0.125. But in this cases i don?t give them exactly the same but 0.120 to the really worst (in this case that made less points in CLGS or comparing at this season team coefficient ranking), 0.125 to the second and 0.130 to the best.

So in this case Valencia (5pts at CLGS) is better, then Stuttgart (3) and CSKA (1) last.

CSKA played just 4 games, so missed 38 (114 possible points). So:
CSKA = 0 (points made at those 4 games) + 114 x 0.120 = 13,68 = 14 points

Stuttgart played already 6 games and will play also again Bremen and Bayern. Will not play 34 games (102 possible points). So:
Stuttgart = 3 + (102 x 0.125) = 3 + 12,75 = 3 + 13 = 16 points and 2 games missing**

Valencia played 4 games and will play again Sevilla and Real Madrid more Barcelona twice. So will not play 34 games (102 possible points). So:
Valencia = 1 + (102 x 0.130) = 1 + 13,26 = 1+ 13 = 14 points and 4 games missing****

So Stuttgart can still get 22 points and Valencia can achieve until 26. Difficulty would be enough to avoid relegation...
But let?s wait for the UCGS outcomes at first!

EL2 update
Author: porto-1978
Date: 14-12-2007, 22:41
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 15-12-2007, 01:12		After:
Panathinaikos 2 - 0 Lokomotiv Moskva
Schalke 3 - 1 Rosenborg
Sporting Lisbon 3 - 0 Dynamo Kyiv

EL2 Table: (games/points)
Slavia 5 13
Fenerbache 3 9
Schalke 2 6
---------------------
Sporting 2 6
Olympiakos 3 5
Panathinaikos 2 4
Marseille 2 3
Besiktas 3 3 * out at CLGS
Ajax 3 3 *** out at UCR1
Shakhtar 1 1 * out at CLGS
Lazio 2 1 * out at CLGS
Steaua 2 1 * out at CLGS
D. Kiev 2 1 * out at CLGS
Rangers 0 0
Villarreal 0 0
Basel 0 0
Tottenham 0 0
AZ 1 0
-------------------------
Lokomotiv M 1 0 ** out at UCGS
Sparta P 1 0 ** out at UCGS
Rosenborg 2 0
Anderlecht 2 0

Probably the top3 is already decided, because 3 EL2 clubs got at least to CLR2. This way Fenerbache, Olympiacos and Schalke will probably promoted to next EL1 season! Eventualy if one of the other clubs win the UC or fall in a late stage with no other EL2 club doing to that round of UC, maybe then that club (only if play in fact with some EL2 clubs and get really a lot of points at those games) can have a slighty chance to get in top3.

To go down Ajax, Sparta and Lokomotiv are already sure. If some other club is eliminated at UCGS (at risk only Anderlecht and AZ) also go to next season EL3. Otherwise it will be one of the clubs out in CLGS, probably Dinamo Kiev or else Steaua. Let?s see after the UCGS...

But at least Ajax final score is already sure to be:

Ajax = 3 + (120 x 0.1) = 15 points and 1 game missing* (with AZ)

EL1 update
Author: porto-1978
Date: 21-12-2007, 17:08
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 21-12-2007, 18:11		After:
Valencia 0-3 Barcelona
Liverpool 0 - 1 Manchester U.
Arsenal 1 - 0 Chelsea

EL1:

# Club Games Points

1 Barcelona 6 16
2 Inter 5 15
3 Sevilla 7 15
4 Manchester 5 11
5 Lyon 5 10
6 Arsenal 5 8
7 Milan 5 7
8 Madrid 4 6
9 PSV 4 6
10 Celtic 4 6
11 Bremen 4 6
12 Liverpool 5 6
13 Chelsea 5 5
14 Porto 3 4
15 Roma 4 4
16 Benfica 5 4
17 Bayern 2 3
--------------------------
18 Bordeaux 1 0
19 AEK 2 0
20 Stuttgart 23 points **
21 Valencia 22 points ***
22 CSKA 22 points

* = games missing

How do i get the final pontuation for each team that already gone out of european competitions?...

I use the formula: TotalPoints = points got in the games played + (possible points in games not played x "LevelOfSuccess"). But i was giving too much litle nr of points to bottom clubs. So I decided to give the following "LevelsOfSuccess": 0.18 (worst) 0.2 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.4 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.6 (best)

In this case:

CSKA/Stuttgart/Valencia get around 0.2 each, so 0.19 CSKA 0.2 Stuttgart and 0.21 Valencia

CSKA: 4 games played and zero points; not playing 38 games=114 possible points. So,

CSKA= 0 + (0.19x114) = 21,66 = 22 points

Stuttgart (by now 6 games, 3 points) play 8 games, so miss 102 possible points:

Stuttgart= 3 + (0.2x102)= 3 + 20,4 = 23** (2 games missing w/Bremen&Bayern)

Valencia (by now 5 games, 1 point) play 8 games, so miss 102 possible points:

Valencia= 1 + (0.21x102) = 1 + 21,42 = 22*** (3 games missing w/Barça/Real&Sevilla)

Those 3 clubs will be relegated along with 2 more teams, surely from those playing UC. So the first 2 to go out from AEK, Bordeaux, Bremen, PSV, Benfica and Bayern will be in danger of relegation.
Clubs in CLR2 are safe from relegation and will discuss the top13-14...

Meanwhile the today draw will put together some EL1 clubs: Celtic v Barcelona; Lyon v Manchester United ; Liverpool v Internazionale; Roma v Real Madrid; Arsenal v Milan.

EL2 update
Author: porto-1978
Date: 21-12-2007, 17:37
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 21-12-2007, 23:47		After the end of the group stages and after
Dynamo Kyiv 2-1 Shakhtar
& considering also the following result which i was missing:
Anderlecht 1 - 1 Tottenham

EL2:

# Club Games Points

1 Slavia 5 13
2 Fenerbache 3 9
3 Schalke 2 6
-------------------------
4 Sporting 2 6
5 Olympiacos 3 5
6 Panathinaikos 2 4
7 Marseille 2 3
8 Tottenham 1 1
9 Anderlecht 3 1
10 Rangers 0 0
11 Villarreal 0 0
12 Basel 0 0
13 Rosenborg 2 0
14 Besiktas 39*
15 Shakhtar 37
16 Lazio 37
17 Steaua 36
18 D. Kiev 36
----------------------------------
19 AZ 28*
20 Sparta P 26*
21 Lokomotiv M 26
22 Ajax 24*

* = games missing

Ajax got 0.18 mark; the 3 clubs falling at UCGS get mean point of 0.22 [Lokomotiv (0.21) Sparta P (0.22) AZ (0.23) >; the 5 clubs falling at CLGS get a mean of 0.3 [D. Kiev (0.28) Steaua (0.29) Lazio (0.3) Shakhtar (0.31) Besiktas (0.32)>. So,

Ajax = 3 + (0.18x114) = 3 + 20,52 = 24* (1 game missing w/AZ)
Lokomotiv = 0 + (0.21x123) = 25,83 = 26
Sparta P = 0 + (0.22x120) = 26,4 = 26* (1 game missing w/Slavia)
AZ = 0 + (0.23x120) = 27,6 = 28* (1 game missing w/Ajax)
Dinamo Kiev = 4 + (0.28x114) = 4 + 31,92 = 36
Steaua = 1 + (0.29x120) = 1 + 34,8 = 36
Lazio = 1 + (0.3x120) = 1 + 36 = 37
Shakhtar = 1 + (0.31x120) = 1 + 37,2 = 38
Besiktas = 3 + (0.32x114) = 3 + 36,48 = 39* (1 game missing w/Fenerbache)

So with AZ going out of UC at GS, they join Sparta Praha and Lokomotiv Moscva, along with Ajax, to be relegated to next EL3 (so strange event of no dutch clubs in EL2 next season exept if PSV is relegated from EL1 but maybe 3 or even 4 dutch clubs at EL3 with Feyenoord and Heerenveen as major candidates to meet the Noord-Holland relegated teams at EL3)

This way Dinamo Kiev and Steaua are safe and remain in EL2.

Fenerbache, Olympiacos and Schalke are the major candidates to get the promotion places.

Three clashes between EL2 clubs at UCR3:
Rangers – Panathinaikos
Sporting – Basel
Slavia – Tottenham