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UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: Overgame Date: 09-10-2007, 17:01	Home, away or bye ? Here a little statistic Home = team qualified and playing MD5 at home. Away = team qualified and playing MD5 away. Bye = team bye for the MD5. {pre> Year Home Away Bye 2005 10 10 4 2006 14 7 3 2007 13 9 2 Total 37 26 9 {/pre> 51.39% for 'Home' 36.11% for 'Away' 12.50% for 'Bye' Do your conclusions

Author: badgerboy
Date: 09-10-2007, 17:23

Interesting stat but don't forget that the number of teams having byes is also only half of the number of teams playing home or away 16/16/8.

So although the numbers are still against the teams with byes it's maybe not as horrendous as it appears at first glance. In the first year - for example - 50% of the "byes" progressed to the next round.

It would also be worth knowing the seeding pots. If a lot of Pot 4 or 5 teams weren't playing on MD5 for example...

Author: Overgame
Date: 09-10-2007, 17:47
Edited by: Overgame
at: 09-10-2007, 18:04

@badgerboy i was exactly thinking about that

40 teams, 16 are playing Home, 16 away and 8 are bye.

{Pre>
Year Home Away Bye
2005 62.5% 62.5% 50%
2006 87.5% 43.75% 37.5%
2007 81.25% 56.25% 25%
{/pre>

Home 62.5% means that 62.5% of the teams playing the MD5 at home have progressed to the next round.

Now, let's check the teams bye in MD5. (Q) for qualified and (X) for the pot.

2005 qualified : Schalke (B), Steaua (D), Dnipropetrovsk (D), Benfica(B).
2005 out : Tbilisi (E), Lazio (A), Wronki (D), Zenit (E).

Pot A : 0/1
Pot B : 2/2
Pot C : 0/0
Pot D : 2/3
Pot E : 0/2

2006 qualified : Lokomotiv (A), Shakhtar (C), Zenit (D).
2006 out : Viking (E), Halmstad (E), Dnipropetrovsk (C), Tromsų (E), CSKA Moscow (A).

Pot A : 1/2
Pot B : 0/0
Pot C : 1/2
Pot D : 1/1
Pot E : 0/3

2007 qualified : Maccabi Haifa (E), Newcastle (A).
2007 out : Brugge (B), Liberec (C), Odense (E), Basel (B), Sparta (B), Rapid (C).

Pot A : 1/1
Pot B : 0/3
Pot C : 0/2
Pot D : 0/0
Pot E : 1/2

Total :

Pot A : 2/4
Pot B : 2/5
Pot C : 1/4
Pot D : 3/4
Pot E : 1/7

Author: moro
Date: 09-10-2007, 17:57
Edited by: moro
at: 09-10-2007, 18:00

Now this is one of most importants analyses I saw on this forum. Congratulations Overgame!
This is a big argument for uefa to change this format. It appears obvious (I admit I read it fast, but think I've got it right) - that teams not playing last round have huge disadvantage, while teams playing home last round take profit.

You can amend it. For example Steaua (bye) in 2005 were qualified no matter what happend in last round. So maybe you should count the percentage of teams "bye" in last round, still on course at that moment.

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: Overgame Date: 09-10-2007, 18:15	moro : hardly doable. Where should i put the teams who were needing a 5-0 score ?

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: moro Date: 09-10-2007, 18:16	You should also try (if you have time) to figure how many times an "arrangement" was possible between two teams to qialfy against a team "bye".

Author: badgerboy
Date: 09-10-2007, 18:38

Good stats.

Of course being pedantic it would also be nice to see what the overall "pot results" were for each year.

But then we could go on for ever...

I think what we have is interesting enough. I also vaguely remembering looking something up last year (before last year's games) about the advantage of being at home in certain fixtures.

For example the Pot E team usually played away to the Pot D team. The only instances of a Pot E team progressing were when this fixture was reversed (so they got those three points at home against the Pot D team they couldn't get against other teams).

The numbers of teams involved were small though - so hard to say if it was just coincidence or a key factor.

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: moro Date: 09-10-2007, 19:12	But from 80% to 25% it's a looong way.

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: Ricardo Date: 10-10-2007, 08:19	This year we add 5 pot B teams and 3 pot E teams to the bye-in-MD5 group. That does not seem random. Also 5 pot A teams play away against pot B. AZ play at home agasint pot C & E, and away against B&D. Not a change in their advantage I would say No, pot A teams are not treated the best I would say.

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: cska Date: 10-10-2007, 10:41	Overgame and Badgerboy Have you factored out all the teams which were already qualified for next round before MD5? If a team has qualified, it may not play at 100%. Or if they have a bye, what is the importance of this at all, if they are already qualified regardless of what others do???

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: moro Date: 10-10-2007, 11:15	Anyway, there's twice more than 80% for home-game vs 25 and 37 for bye. It's a huge difference. Finest analyse will only make difference bigger.

Author: cska
Date: 10-10-2007, 11:23

I don't think so.
It depends quite a lot whether MD5 is the last game for your team or it is all until MD4. However, if you have to face unmotivated opponent in MD5 (already qualified or already lost all 3 previous games), then you are quite likely to win.
And also, there are situations, in which two teams have a possible result, which qualifies them both, if their main opponent is "exempted" in MD5.
Anyway, if MD5 bye is a disadvantage, you may write to Norwegian and Swedish federations that they can write a protest to UEFA.
However, I think they must shut up, because this is a small impact compared to seeding "protection" they have in Northern group.

Author: moro
Date: 10-10-2007, 13:23

It's not only about Nor and Swe.
Fact is that this format is clear disadvantage for the team "bye MD5". CSKA 2005, Rapid Buc 2006 - here only two examples I remind at the moment. And when I think about the fact that England allways ask Uefa to let them not-bye MD5 because some ridiculous reason (internal programm) - wich could be re-arranged with a little bit effort.

I hope the new-format will be applied in 2009, with 4 teams-group.

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: Cirdan Date: 10-10-2007, 13:51	@Moro: "And when I think about the fact that England allways ask Uefa to let them not-bye MD5" mmhwhat? last year 1 of 3 English teams (Newcastle) had their bye on the last matchday, this year 2 of 3 English teams will have their bye on the last matchday... I think you are mixing something up there.

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: moro Date: 10-10-2007, 14:13	I remember badgerboy explained us something like that last year, but maybe my memory's in trouble. Sorry.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 10-10-2007, 16:57

Before last season it was the case that one of the UEFA Cup matchdays clashed with the League Cup in England and because of this the English clubs didn't play on that day.

Without checking I think it was Matchday 4 rather than 5 that they were exempt for.

Last season there was no clash. This season I believe there is but it is with Matchday 5. I guess by now it's seen as up to the national federations to sort these things out and rearrange any clashes. Although of course it's possible that it was taken into account for Tottenham & Bolton but not for Everton because Zenit's situation took priority. But there was no mention of this at the draw and Zenit could've played away on MD5 & rested on MD4 & Everton rested on MD5 if necessary. Conclusion - it probably wasn't taken into account.

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: moro Date: 10-10-2007, 17:38	Pheeeew, so I dont have Alzheimer...yet. It was a coincidence that the clash with MD4 forced english teams not to be "bye" on MD5.

Re: UEFA Cup GS : what's better for MD5 ?
Author: Ricardo Date: 10-10-2007, 19:54	"and Zenit could've played away on MD5 & rested on MD4 " Such a team is not in the calendar: teams always have a home-match after their 'rest' week. But they could have gotten the 'C' position: play at home in MD4 and away in MD5

Author: badgerboy
Date: 11-10-2007, 10:35

Ricardo

Then I guess that explains it. If you combine the "home after rest" rule I didn't know about with the fact that Russian teams aren't supposed to play at home on Matchdays 4 or 5 (we already have an explanation for the Spartak exception).

So maybe - but only maybe - the computer took the English League Cup into account this year when giving Bolton & Tottenham the last matchdays off. But for Everton, Zenit's situation took priority.