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Author: cska
Date: 06-10-2007, 15:37

I was just inspired by the thread of Badgerboy to open this one.
When we use rankings to measure "consistency" or "trends" or "tradition" we come to the problem that a country X can have quite inconsistent points, but quite consistent ranking. For example, Bulgaria is always 16th-17th in the last 3-4 years despite its points fluctuating a lot between lows of 2,XXX and highs of 8,XXX. That is because the ranking of Bulgaria does not depend only on its points, but also on the performance of its competitors in the ranking table.
I propose that instead of "rank average" or "rank sum" or "rank standard deviation" to use "efficiency coefficient", i.e. coeff based on the actually achieved coeff by country X divided by the theoretically possible maximum coeff.
For example, a country with 1 CL in QR2 and 3 UC in QR2 (2) and QR1 (1) can have: 37 (CL won)+37 (UC won by QR1 team)+33 (UC final lost by QR2 team)+28 (BOTH semi-final legs lost by QR2 team to either one of the other 2 teams, also 1 bonus point is lost for non-reaching the final)= 135 / 4 = 33,750 maximum possible coeff.
A result of, let's say, 16,875 will mean an index of 0,5 or 50%, because 16,875 / 33,750 = 0,5.
We can use the access list for any year and calculate the theoretical maximum for each country. And when we divide its actual coefficient for that year with the theoretical maximum we can get the efficiency ratio. And we can see how "consistent" or "growing" or "falling" or "fluctuating" it is.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 06-10-2007, 17:18

cska

Yes I quite like this.

I do vaguely remember looking at something similar myself a while back though I'm not sure I got round to posting anything. And I think I might have been mostly looking at how the overall points available has changed over the years - due to loss of CL 2nd group stage, addition of UEFA groups etc.

I just added a list to my thread showing the variation in points needed each year to fill the key positions for that year (3rd, 8th, 15th and 21st).

As you say your own finishing position is very much dependent on how other countries perform too.

I also remember before talking about those "key positions" and whether they should in fact be more flexible. So UEFA should base the place allocations for the UEFA Cup (I would say the CL would stay the same) on a country's performance against the "maximum" you mention rather than against other countries. So one year there might be only seven countries that meet the criteria for getting six European teams - the next year there might be ten.

I know that makes the access list less neat but essentially it means a few more or less qualifying matches depending on the number of teams that qualify.