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Author: ikoon
Date: 05-10-2007, 18:01
Edited by: ikoon
at: 05-10-2007, 18:02

(i've waited long enough for opening this topic)

After yesterday's performan (3 teams out), and unless Benfica can avoid being last in its group, Portugal is now in trouble. Even if Sporting going into UC and Braga making wonders in UCGS, Portugal points will be divided by 7. Trouble all the same.

Netherlands and Russia looks very strong and probably will finish ahead Portugal. Ukraine and Scotland seem strong contenders for the next year so the question is, will Portugal exit top 10 after so many years of 6th and top 10 in general, after Porto winning the CL and UC, after they didn't sent team in IT for so many years to protect their coefficient?

This topic is about Portugal, the greater exporter of football players in the world (another one) but the question is:
how much will Portugal fall this year and in years to come?

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: Kaiser Date: 05-10-2007, 18:04	Sporting rules - it will win UC and gain pts for Portugal. Portugal won't fall under 7-8th.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: honesty Date: 05-10-2007, 18:08	My opinion is that Portugal will enter top 10 after 10 years. P.S. They will exit top 10 next year.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: honesty Date: 05-10-2007, 18:09	I also created a related topic because the fall is so evident. I want to disscuss also about if Portugal will ever enter top 6 again.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: moro Date: 05-10-2007, 18:10	My opinion is that this is childish. Even if the other topic is obviously the expression of a degree of frustration, you know that in Romania we says "the revenge is the arm of a stupid".

Author: ikoon
Date: 05-10-2007, 18:28
Edited by: ikoon
at: 05-10-2007, 18:31

Badgerboy will say that this is a valid topic as it discuss a coefficient matter and nothingelse matter. Bert will play the deaf guy routine so i see no problem.

I invite, in special, Badgerboy to comment this valid issue too.

PS: When i have more time, i promise i will make a topic for every country to find out how easy or hard a fall can be, or how good or bad can be to stay in the same range, etc.

Author: Cirdan
Date: 05-10-2007, 18:59

honesty posted the same topic already...

anyway, I don't see how Portugal is falling, they only have 3 or 4 teams after UCR1 EVERY YEAR and usually get 8 points anyway. So far, they are not doing worse than expected, Leirias win against Leverkusen is even kind of unexpected. Even if Benfica will out after CLGS, last year Sporting was out after CLGS and Romania made 8 points... even adding IT-Cup-winner Leiria to the picture it still looks like around 7 points this year for Portugal. Yesterday was way worse for the Netherlands and Romania than it was for Portugal.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 05-10-2007, 20:29

Ikoon

It all is really childish - isn't it?

"Can Romania stay in Top 5" (FK Leotar)
"Future for Romania" (Sandersmit)
"Romania in top 3 coeff this year!" (Honesty)
"Romania statistically "best of the rest" and top 8" (Me)
"The "battle" Portugal v Romania" (Alexfriend)
"Romania on 5th after this year" (Doctor)
"Why Romania will stay in top at least five years" (Moro)
"Romania on 5th after this year?" (Doctor) (Yes again!)
"Can Russia or Romania be on 6th after this year?" YEs - the doc again!

That's just a sample of the positive and/or "optimistic" Romania threads there have been in recent times. And no problems. And that's not to mention all the "battle for" topics that turn into defacto Romania topics.

I have no real problem with this either. I read what I feel like reading & skip the rest. Andd the genuinely informative stuff I quite enjoy.

But as soon as there's a "negative" Romania topic - understandable in the face of all the "positive" ones you have to react like this.

"OK someone dares to write a specific Romania topic that's bad so lets show how this is unsustainable by starting similar topics about lots of other countries"

Actually I have some statistics though to show Portugal's "consistency" in recent years.

Since 1999-2000 when the CL became 32 teams their position in the coefficient ranking for the individual years has been:

9-10-7-3-4-8-12-8.

So once in 8 seasons outside the top 10. Three times outside the top 8. Pretty consistent.

14-33-25-28-17-13-1-4 are the equivalent numbers for "another country" that shall remain nameless.

Given those numbers & looking at the consistency I know which - if any - I'd put my money on to fall.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: Zhund0r Date: 05-10-2007, 20:37 Edited by: Zhund0r at: 05-10-2007, 20:41	^^ I think the turkish league will overpower Portugal in future...

Author: moro
Date: 05-10-2007, 20:56

Cough, cough,

Indeed, almost every topic was childish but one - I like the "Why Romania will stay in top at least five years" because reading the title it gives you the feeling you'll be smarter after consuming. Smarter, because from that moment you know you will understand why, you'll have clear explanation concerning Romania's succes.

Also the creator didnt specified what "top" means, this let you develop ideeas and neuronal activity (something you can barely find this days).

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: bert.kassies Date: 05-10-2007, 21:24	Well, based on current results ikoon has a point. See UEFA country ranking graph. And compare the future of Portugal and Romania. You see? I know the graph does not take into account the current number of teams left, and the corresponding prospect on future points. But still, it is based on points actually gained.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: Kaiser Date: 05-10-2007, 22:09	But he simply copies users' topics!

Author: jpcccc
Date: 06-10-2007, 01:16
Edited by: jpcccc
at: 06-10-2007, 01:20

Ok, ikoon, i already said i should have not posted that first paragraph on the other topic (although it's true, i've really waited for the right moment to post the topic, not earlier). i asked the topic to be closed after your violent reaction to it.

i now know that expressing myself is stupid and something to be silenced while you can say everything. For you, yesterday this kind of topic was provocative, today it isn't. Whatever... i won't post in either topic anymore.

Bert, as for the graphs, only years until 2007 (last ranking) are stable. From 2008 onward it is speculative (and wrong), because it only counts points gained so far {b> and {/b> assumes no more points for anyone. From 2008 on they mean only an average on last 4 years, last 3 years, last two, etc. For 2007 and before they all mean a 5 year average. It's completely different things in the same graph!

The positions for 2008 onward are not a prediction. There are points to be gained and they are expected to be gained by some countries more than by others. Expected performance, number of teams (dividing by more or less teams), etc. All that is simply forgotten and leveled to zero for all countries.

Still i agree: Portugal is descending. Probably the same as it has done before (10-9 years ago). But what is seen in the graph is nearly a worst case scenario, with all teams going out in first round or assuming the performance of last years instead of first ones in the 5 year period. It's not a good prediction.

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 06-10-2007, 09:36

jpcccc, I know the facts. We've discussed it before on this forum. And I do think that these graphs are some kind of prediction. In mathematical terms it is similar to a zero-order extrapolation. It is not so much wrong as a prediction, but it has limited value.

I think these graphs show for future years very clearly the internal structure of the ranking of each country. Countries which gained a large amount of points in a period 4 to 5 years ago, tend to show a decline in the ranking. Which indicates that they have to work hard to remain at that ranking position.

Author: Overgame
Date: 06-10-2007, 10:10

@bert : well, i like mathematics, but everyone knows that a n-order extrapolation is far from the true value when you're far enough of your source

At the start/end of the season, the grafs have more meaning

But right now, Ukraine has scored more points than Portugal but mathematically speaking, Ukraine did it only once, when Portugal scored their worst score. And the difference between the 2 countries in the 2 next years is really too slim to start predicting something now.

Finally, that zero-order extrapolation is good after/before the season, but not in the middle of it. That's like checking the value of a fonction during the process of creating the value (ex : f(x)=x�+x+1, and you'd be checking the value after only the x� :p)

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 06-10-2007, 11:33

@Overgame, you are right. The graphs have limited value. They are absolutely not well suited to predict a certain ranking position over two years time.

But they show a trend. And these graphs are not based on the yearly coefficients, but on the 5-year marching average. And for future years 2008-2010 on a period of 4.5 to 2.5 years.

And yes, you are right that the accuracy at the start of the season may be better that at mid-season. But I can assure you that the trends in the graphs of Portugal and Romania are not really different from the graphs before the start of this season.

Author: Overgame
Date: 06-10-2007, 11:49

Of course

But the grafs have a very high inertia : you need almost a whole season to modify them :p That's one of the reason why a graf in the middle of a season is not accurate : we have the results but the grafs are not ajusted before a long time. A simple consequence of the 'zero-order extrapolation'.

But i agree with you, these grafs are the best extrapolation mathematically possible. The others way need too much subjectivity to be mathematic. They show, in the majority of the cases, if a country will progress or go down. But football is not a science, and Greece or Romania are proving it to us.

Author: honesty
Date: 06-10-2007, 11:55

Portugal the fall is a relevant topic because it`s clearly a fall. They where on 6th and now I don`t see them near that position( in a period of 5 years)

This fall could be caused by internal problems, like having only 3 medium teams, or by the raise of other countrys.

My opinion is that is caused by the raise of eastern countrys who become stronger each year.

You kept speaking about grecce. Loock now they have 6 teams. portugal never had 6 teams in group stage. Aren`t this some question marks about the weekeness of the national league?

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: honesty Date: 06-10-2007, 11:57	@Overgame So this is a realistic topic. The graphs and the numbers are showing us that Portugal is in a fall. A irealistic topic is Romania the fall because the numbers show us that we can`t fall in a period of 3 years.

Author: Overgame
Date: 06-10-2007, 12:30
Edited by: Overgame
at: 06-10-2007, 12:37

honesty : maths and reality are 2 different worlds :p

Actually, in probability and statistics, we're studying the 'models' in math�matics. Let's take a simple situation : you're playing with a dice. What's the probability to have a 6 ? 1/6 ? Why ? The dice could be cheated, and even the best dice is not 100% perfect

And you don't have any way to be sure of the probability :p

But, in mathematics, we are using the probability of 1/6 to create a model. Bert is using a 'zero-order' extrapolation (i like that word :p), Ricardo is using the seeding system, etc. I could create a model based on dices. Everyone is creating his own model, with his predictions.

You're using your own subjectivity to create a model !

But, again, the models are not the reality, and the numbers are just .... numbers. Don't talk of realistic or irrealistic based on numbers. The numbers are saying that a single person has almost no chance to win the millions with the lottery, but tere are winners, right ?

And the numbers in Bert's model are showing Romania 4th next year. Do you really believe in this ? Beofre the end of the season, the same model will show Romania as 7th (in my model :p) next year. And, as i've said, a model is not accurate in a long period of time (some are, but most aren't).

So, this topic is only realistic in some model, but using and unrealitics inthe others. The fall of romania is unrealistic in some models, and realistic in the others. Bert's model is not really a predicting model (and, in football, a 100% prediction is impossible) but some kind of 'Taylor's developpement'.

Edit : in fact, bert's model for the next year is showing the ranking if no more point is scored. That's the basis of his model, and, as he has said, this model is just giving us a way to know if a country has good chances to progress orto fall. But, again, the system is working for a majority, but not for a single example (Romania or Portugal).

Romania will not be 4t next year, and portugal will probably not exit the top10. Why ? Just add into account a new parameter (but you need a lot of subjectivity, you cannot predict the results) : number of teams (left).

Author: mark
Date: 06-10-2007, 12:47

I'm willing to offer a different extrapolation for the graphs.

For each year not decided yet follow the following simple rules
1. if all the teams of the country are out, use its final coef.
2. if the country coef is bigger then the average of the previous 5 years, use the current coef
3. otherwise use the average over the previous 5 years
4. When calculating the 5 year average for years which were not decided yet, use the coef calculated for it by this method.

IMHO this should provide a gentler and somewhat more realistic rise and drop.

Author: Overgame
Date: 06-10-2007, 13:02

And now, i will give us my prediction (or model :p).

Porto seems really strong, and will probably not end as 4th of their group. Last year, Porto was 2nd of their group. Benfica is in real danger, and could be 4th (like Sporting last year). After their win in Kiev, Sporting should end 3rd and continue in Uc (like Benfica last year).

Let's take team by team.

{pre>
Team Last year Current score
Porto 13 6
Benfica 17.5 5
Braga 10 2
Sporting 7 5
Small1 1 1
small2 0 0
{/pre>

Let's add the 3.5 points of Leiria in the picture. Now, let's predict

Porto should easily score at least the same total. Perhaps more. Benfica will have proble:ms to re-score 17.5 points, but should end higher than 7. Sporting will score more than 7. Hard to say so:mething for Braga. We'll see

So, in a not really optimistic prediction, the total for the 'big3' will stay the same (37.5 points). if Braga performs like they did one year again, with 10 points, Portugal will end with 52 points and a coefficient of 7.428.

In this prediction, Ukraine will not pass them, Netherlands will be passed. Ukraine will be far and will not pass portugal next year (at the start of the season).

oh, and in a optimistic scenario (for portugal) Porto ends first of the group and go far in CL (20 points ?), Benfica and Sporting are third of their group and doing well in UC (35.5 points for both ?) Braga is better than last year (15 points ?) for a total of 75 points and a score of 10.714 and are passing Netherlands, Romania and perhaps Russia. And based on the results of the team:s, that's not impossible :p

Author: badgerboy
Date: 06-10-2007, 13:07

Yes. I like the graph but the sentence above it:

"It's not the best prediction at mid-season because some countries might already be out of competition, while others just started playing".

...is also very important.

Relatively yes Portugal will fall but I'd be surprised if it's even as far as 10th. They have a good chance of remaining 8th this year - after the Dutch disaster but you'd expect them to fall to 9th in 2009.

Predicting beyond that is really tough. Only 2 and a bit years of results in so far and year 5 will be a completely different format for the UEFA Cup - and different numbers of teams per association. So if Portugal clings on to 8th this year, in 2009-10 the countries immediately below them lose the "advantage" of two less teams so presumably it gets harder for them to get such a big score. Of course that means Portugal also misses out on this "advantage" themselves in 2010-11...

So yes 6th to 9th (or just maybe 10th) is a "fall" of sorts but not one I'd get too worried about or expect to get worse if I was Portuguese.

On the numbers I put above. It would seem reasonable to say that Portugal's performance has remained very consistent when compared to the other teams in the rankings. If they've never had worse than the twelfth highest score in a single coefficient year in any of the last 8 years it's hard to imagine them falling that far.

Author: Frk_Slb
Date: 06-10-2007, 23:54

I think Portugal won't fall so deeply as many people predicted. Portugal is doing a normal season as occured in the last seasons. The difference between this season and the last ones is that Portugal has 7 teams instead of 6 due to Leiria's Intertoto performance.

Then, I think it's more important to discuss Netherlands thursday disaster and Romania last 2 seasons overrated coefficients (as we can see the "all mighty" Romania lost almost all teams - only Steaua remains in action).

However I agree Portugal's ranking will be affected by the coefficient division by 7, but I think Portugal can reach the 8th or the 7th position in the ranking in the end of season.

We'll see in the end of the season what's going to happen!

Author: honesty
Date: 07-10-2007, 15:01

Portugal is starting to look weeker and weeker. Benfia from a CL strong team to an outsider of the group. Sporting from winer of UC a team that battles very hard for 3rd place in a CL group i don`t expect them to realize something.Porto from a team that winned CL and UC to a 3rd place contender.

7 teams - 2 direct - 2 seeded teams - 6 th country in ranking - 0 performance in last 3 years and with this one 4 years and 0 performance .

This facts are to obisous to not predict a fall.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: Overgame Date: 07-10-2007, 16:10	Romania, 6th in the ranking and 0 performances in .... 15 years. 5 teams, 3 seeded and only one left.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: honesty Date: 08-10-2007, 08:48	Romania -3 teams 0 seeded - 1 in gs - Round 4 of UC -3 teams 1 seeded - all in gs -SF UC - QF UC -3 teams 3 seeded - all in gs - 2 teams pass grouspstage -5 teams 3 seeded - 1 in gs to be continued

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: honesty Date: 08-10-2007, 08:49	@Overgame -Romania was never 6th check the ranking. Romania never had 6 teams except IT check in history.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: Cirdan Date: 08-10-2007, 11:24	you call an 8.0 coef with 6 teams 0 performance? and you ARE aware that Sportings UC final was just 3 years ago, so you call that 0 performance too? you are obviously blind. Portugal had 1 single bad year 2 years ago, and even then Benfica reached CL quaterfinals (which I do NOT think is 0 performance).

Author: badgerboy
Date: 08-10-2007, 11:52
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 08-10-2007, 11:57

Message to all posters - especially Portuguese ones.

I know it's difficult but if you can do it please ignore Honesty's posts about Portugal. For anyone with more than half a brain cell it's easy to see that his soul intention with them is to annoy people. And anyone with that same half a brain cell can see that they have no basis in fact (at least when you talk about any fall below 10th).

And if you respond in the way Honesty wants - and frankly the only way his posts on Portugal deserve - all that happens is that you end up making "anti-Romania" statements that upset other Romanians. And then they start slagging off Portugal too & Honesty has achieved exactly what he wanted in the first place.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: joaol Date: 09-10-2007, 02:57	I agree I think bert should supervise more the forum and advise users that aren?t doing much around here.

Author: honesty
Date: 09-10-2007, 07:33

@Badgerboy

I think that u have problems if u don`t see who starts to speak low about other countrys. I don`t make any post if not atacked. See the dates of Porto1978, Jaoul, Overgame posts. See how they spoked about Romania and then folow my dates and posts.

U started to read from a certain point like u said. U just jumb over posts and then when u see one of my post or of ikoon posts u make acuzation. Please read all posts in topics about Romania and Portugal folow the dates and u will see that me and ikoon don`t speak unprovoked.

I forgot of Sporting performance because is ancient history, in a cup that u denigrated. Still there are 2 years with 0 performance. I mean u have 6 teams 3 CL-3 UC and the most u can do is a QF and u call that performance. I mean there where countrys like Italy that had 3 teams wnad wined CL. With these countrys u must compare urselfs. Not with a countrys taht has a team in CL qulifiers. U should bea ashame to sustain that a qf is much!

And about bert he is doing very good his job in my opinion. What do u expect from him ? U are not in the position to make that kind of sugestions. Unless u have a poor opinion for bert. Bert u are doing a good job moderating this forum ! Bravo!

Author: badgerboy
Date: 09-10-2007, 10:43

Honesty

Well I would say exactly the same to you and ikoon - ignore any posts that are clearly intended to "provoke" and which add nothing to the forum.

I suppose I "picked on you" in this instance because you're simultaneous "attack on Portugal posts" both seemed an instant (& childish) reaction to jpcccc's "Romania - how hard the fall".

Jpcccc already said he should have worded the start of his post a bit better but the topic itself (with sensible & constructive posts) is a fairly reasonable one. It's also fairly understandable (human nature) that - after many many: Romania on 5th, Romania 1st this year, Romania challenging France etc. threads there are likely to be threads saying the opposite once Romania have a few bad results.

Overall though I agree that individual country threads are pretty unnecessary - except the domestic league ones on forum 2. The "battle for x place" topics should be enough for everyone.

Author: joaol
Date: 09-10-2007, 19:22

Inever provoked noone( maybe with one or two exceptions when i saw barbarian quotes around the forum attacking portuguese or makin it look stupid close to romanian, like saying roamnaian football is so much greeat than portuguese football because of the ranking, I say again romania is some years away from portuguese football, it isn?t the ranking who is gonna change my mind and other persons too). When i said bert should supervise the forum with more intensity I am one of the supervised users too, if he thinks i?m overeacting or having stupid an utopical quotes e should advise or even ban me I don?t care... I?m just tired of non-sense statements around here. I?m sorry for the ones who haven?t any fault but the worst are the romanians, some of them, they overate themselves and are incapable to admite that they are top 15 country, and that portugal is a top 10 country and doesn?t need anything to prove it, even with 3 teams out already this year we are a top 10 country.

Author: Cirdan
Date: 09-10-2007, 20:06
Edited by: Cirdan
at: 09-10-2007, 20:14

For a CL Quaterfinal you don't get that many coef points, but if you are not in pot1 yourself, you have to beat one of Europes 10 biggest clubs to get there. In Benficas case it was Liverpool (Benfica were pot4 in GS draw, btw). I find that more impressing than reaching the UC semifinals, even more so than a final. Romania didn't manage to pass first round in CL in 10 years. Germany didn't have a CL semifinalist in 5 years, and only Bayern reached quaterfinals 2 times. For France & Netherlands it's similar.

You say that Porto was a top candidate to win the CL a couple of years ago (a lie, they were surprise winners) and now "only" play for 2nd place in the group stage, Sporting was a UEFA Cup favourite (another lie) and now not anymore, but tell me a single team from outside the top 3 that played more than 2 consecutive years in a quaterfinal. Portuguese teams were never that good, not even Porto, and there are no other teams from outside the top 3 that good in the 00s, not even Bayern.

Or let's simply look at Portugals Competitors: Russia played exactly 0 Semifinals in the last 2 years - by your definition 0 performance, so they are falling. The Netherlands - 0 performance. Romania - 1 semifinal, but looking at last year and this year and the years before, that was obviously a big exception. So, they are all falling hard themselves.

You are either delusional, or like most say by now, a troll who just wants to provoke.

Author: Overgame
Date: 09-10-2007, 20:22

In facts, if Porto goes in CLQF (not impossible at all), if Benfica and Sporting goes to UC and pass one more round (or 2 rounds for one of them) and if Braga joins them, Portugal can end 7th, in front of Romania. That's about a coefficient of 9, 60 with 4 teams, an average of 15 per team : excepting Braga, the remaining teams left have done better in the last 3 years (Benfica 17.5 last year, Sporting 23 two years ago and porto 23 three years ago).

That's all but impossible.

Author: ikoon
Date: 09-10-2007, 23:28
Edited by: ikoon
at: 09-10-2007, 23:28

Jpcccc already said he should have worded the start of his post a bit better but the topic itself (with sensible & constructive posts) is a fairly reasonable one. It's also fairly understandable (human nature) that - after many many: Romania on 5th, Romania 1st this year, Romania challenging France etc. threads there are likely to be threads saying the opposite once Romania have a few bad results.

bboy, you are joking right? Or trying to legitimate childish behaviour like 'fairly resonable one'. The season is not even over yet and like overgame say, anything is possible. So make a topic and ask (probably romanians) 'how hard is the fall?' ... what kind of resposes do you think that person will get or expect?

There were topics in the past with Romania on 1st, because Romania was on 1st, just stating a fact. Now are topics with Turkey on 1st, because Turkey was on 1st and even if was in the start of the season. The greek teams had a good round, and i saw a topic about that too. There are no more topics about Romania than other countries, no more bragging than other countries.

So slow down. This topic propose to discuss a more ovious fall than the one of Romania and is not more childish than the other one, or how you say 'valid' for that matter, only because is an effect to the other one. I personaly make a argumentated complaint in that topic and waited for Bert to close it one day and a half, before deciding to open this one.

So i know very well that many people don't see with good eyes this rise of Romania in rankings and this is their burden to carry and i don't think is fair to attack the romanians for everything, even for topics that other people decided to open about Romania.

You want to discuss 'Romanaia's fall' very well. Let's wait the end of the season to see on what position we will end up and then a topic can be made to discuss this specifficaly. Until then there are topics who address to a specific key position in rankings and any complaints, frustrations and even insults can be stated there without consequences.

If topics like these will be made and supported by the admin, expect to see their counterpart too, because i'm personaly tired for our country to be blame, because few romanians are more optimistic than the portugues would want. I personaly had a very realistic opinion about the rankings and i didn't see Romania in the top 5-6. Is that i don't see Portugal there either, haress mme for that. It was ovious that they will loose few good coefficient seasons and replace them with weaker ones and in the conditions: Netherlands, Russia and even Romania came strong from behind, they will fall. Already happened and the current season don't look too good for them. And this concern their top 3 teams who are descending in results, not the other 3-4 teams who just perform like usual.

And also when i made this topic i was specificaly pointed out that 'this is a topic about Portugal', i don't see why you and others bring Romania in discussion here (yourself said that there are a lot more topics about Romania, suddenly forgot the link?) question my reasons or other posters reasons for their opinion. You have something to say about the subject, go ahead, you don't then clear off, find a subject of interes or rediscover your personal life. I only wish like all those off-topic posts to be deleted.

Author: jpcccc
Date: 09-10-2007, 23:48

Ok, Overgame, it is not impossible. You're right.

But even in Portugal no one would dare to say that it is likely. Why ? Because these good performances from portuguese teams never happen in the same year. When Porto is good, either Sporting or Benfica are doing bad, when it is Sporting, it is one of the other two, or both, doing bad, etc. In average, it seems possible, but to get that average one of them should reach, say, semifinals to get the points the others didn't.

Now it's my turn to say to you that maybe, just maybe, it is too early to start upsetting our romanian friends with that prospect.

Let romania get ahead of Portugal at least in one season. No drama there.

As portuguese, I would be glad with 8th this year, ahead of Netherlands, keeping 6 teams or a stable 5 teams with the new format. No more yo-yo effect and probably never again 4 teams in the near term (had to go below 12th for that...).
Also, with the new format, not even a bad year can drop either Portugal or Netherlands to 4 teams.

Author: jpcccc
Date: 10-10-2007, 00:01

Hey, ikoon, i never meant 'hard' in the sense of being though for romanians.

I was saying it in the sense of a portuguese saying (also something similar in english) "the higher the rise, the harder the fall". In the sense of being a downward slope as fast as it was the rise.

Maybe it's my bad english. Ok, it really was a bad choice of words.
I should have said 'steep' or 'fast' or any other thing (and avoid that first paragraph in which i expressed a bit more than necessary).

But i guess you would never accept it anyway, so why bother explaining more... i really should not post anymore on this subject (even being my countries' subject started by you).

Author: Overgame
Date: 10-10-2007, 00:21

@jpcccc : i know, i've just checked a single possibility

But i've just noticed that Portugal has scored 8 points, with 6 teams in 2004/2005, with only one spectacular result. If we add Braga into this perspective, 9 points are not impossible.

When i was discussing with a friend from Marseille, we've talked about Porto and the team seems strong. A good run in CL is a possible perspective, and with the win of Marseille in Liverpool, they could even end first of the group.

Author: jpcccc
Date: 10-10-2007, 01:09
Edited by: jpcccc
at: 10-10-2007, 01:31

Yes, it was the year Benfica reached CL quarter finals. But guimaraes in UC got a solid contribution. Braga still has to do it and this year dividing by 7 teams. However, if one team manages to skip from CL into UC and get a good run there into semifinals, strangely enough, portugal's chances get a boost.

This says more about UC being more attractive (in coefs) than CL, than anything else. Yet, that's a question to be settled (and proven) after we get a few years in ranking with UC group stages. Then, a comparison can be made and averaged to reach a conclusion. I still bet that UC gives better chances to increase coefs than CL and all its bonus points.

As for Porto, it's interesting too see it usually gets past group stage. What happens next depends on the team, but Porto usually builds a good team every 4-5 years (then sells it...).

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: jpcccc Date: 10-10-2007, 01:35	Wait, you're talking about 2005/06, the year Sporting reached UC final. Ok, i see, but then i still maintain that it needs a team reaching semifinals.

Author: Cirdan
Date: 10-10-2007, 03:04
Edited by: Cirdan
at: 10-10-2007, 03:10

@jpcccc: last year Portugal did 8 points without reaching a semifinal

@Overgame: 04/05 Sporting might have been the only team with a particularly strong season, but Benfica and Porto did more than 10 points, too, which might not be great, but not bad either, and in any other year, at least one of the 3 had a really bad year. Currently, it doesn't look too good for Benfica.

@Ikoon: Predicting Portugal to fall because their 10+ years are falling away is correct, however their 10+ years were all done with just 4 teams. The performance of their top 3 does not decline, last year was perfectly normal, maybe even better - Sporting was not successfull, but the combined score of Sporting, Benfica and Porto was still 37.5, When FC Porto won the Champions League it was 38.0, just half a point more.

And to why all are blaming you for these topics: I just started visiting these forums this summer, but there were still more topics discussing the outlook for Romania than for any other nation. And for no other nation, there were as unreasonable expactations, like "we will make 8-10 with 5 or 6 teams". But then, no other nation had similar surprising results and coefficiants in the last years, so I get that. Mocking the Romanians after the debacle in UCR1 might not be very nice, but then, it was as surprising as the good results before, and thus, deserved discussion. However, you and honesty opening 5 topics just as a revenge 2 days after that is just lame.

I mean, 2 topics about Portugals fall, and there were no surprising results, this year the only debacle for Portugal so far is starting with 7 teams, 2 topics about Bulgarias fall, when the only debacle was Levskis failure 2 months earlier and a topic about how good Russia does, whithout any surprises either, there was already a topic about Russia and we already predicted that Russia could be very strong this year with 3 seeded teams in UC. Like I said, lame.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: cinebelul Date: 11-10-2007, 12:20	Everybody talks about portuguise or romanian fall, many topics were opened, but nobody says any word about the dutch situation, no topic opened about... I think with only 2 teams remaining, they have the best chances to end on the 9th, not the portuguiese...

Author: cska
Date: 11-10-2007, 15:01

cinebelul
The matter about 9th spot is no longer relevant. As the new proposal of Platini is going to be either accepted as is or with the change of CW's in CL replaced by RU's, then all the countries to spot 12 (13) will have direct access. And all the countries to spot 16 will have 2 CL teams. So, spot 9 or 10 is no longer relevant in discussions. Spot 6 is now the most important, because it gives 2 direct access spots in CL GS.

The problem of humans and their striving for planning and predicting the future is that we forecast using "trends", "arithmetic means", "cycles", "standard deviations", etc., which seem "logical" to us, but rarely occur in reality in the way we really expect.
During the summer, many people predicted at minimum 8 pts for Romania, based on the assumption of the previous 2 years. During the summer, all people predicted that 3 teams from Greece will have to earn points for all 6. Everybody from Romania was "willing" rather than "predicting" how Portugal will fall, some of you even predicted total disaster for Germany and Holland.
Now, Greece has all its teams earning points in CL and UC GS. Now Romania has only 1 team in CL GS with 0 pts and 0 teams in UC GS. Now 1 instead of 3 teams will earn points for all the 5. Now, Portugal is not falling so low as you predicted - they have their problems, but their coeff is not so bad and gives them all the chances to do better when they have only 4 teams.
Now only the Dutch perform surprisingly bad - but their league started to resemble Scotland - PSV totally monopolized the title and Ajax always squeezes the 2nd place in play-offs. The problem is that the other teams cannot level with PSV and Ajax. Just like Celtic and Rangers monopolized CL spots in Scotland.
The problem is that a country cannot count only on CL to get many points. So, Scotland started to fall, but not so quickly, because Rangers and Celtic play very well this year.
However, Holland follows the pattersn of Scotland. Thus, they must have more teams like PSV or otherwise they will not earn many points.
It's pity that my favourite Dutch team did not even qualify for European football this year. I hope Feijenoord will do better this season in the league.

Author: honesty
Date: 11-10-2007, 15:29

@Cirdan did u passed 1st grade? Start to learn numbers and then post. "Lame" are u sayng that i opened 5 topics when i opened 1 about Portugal and 1 about Bulgaria. I opened another topic 1 mounth ago with Portugal Vs Ukraine. So if i count corectly i opened 1 topic in response of Romania the fall.

My topic was based on facts and u posted in this thread.

Romania the fall wasn`t based on facts.

And about u... no coment u are far from this planet.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: honesty Date: 11-10-2007, 15:31	@cirdan did u see the results of portugesse teams and the drawings of the groups? Based on what do u say that the only difference is having 7 teams instead of 6? I think your hands write before u think. Try to change the order and it`s ok.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: cinebelul Date: 11-10-2007, 15:44	@cska this is the reason why I don?t make predictions about how many points will get a nation for a whole season in the coef-table. Anyway, with Platini?s proposal or not, it is further a big diference between 8th and 9th, because of the number of teams in UC, and I think Ned will lose this season against Por

Author: Cirdan
Date: 11-10-2007, 20:21
Edited by: Cirdan
at: 11-10-2007, 20:55

@honesty: learn reading. I said you and Ikoon opened 5 topics. You 1 about Bulgaria and 1 about Portugal, Ikoon 1 Bulgaria, 1 Portugal, 1 Russia and I think there were even more from him. All within 2 days after Romanias failure in Round 1 without any apparent reason.

As for Portugal so far: one draw and one win from Porto is anything but bad, a draw against Liverpool and a win in Istanbul. Marseille seems strong this year, and Liverpool is always good, but Porto are very unlikely to finish 4th and still have every chance to qualify for the 2nd Round of CL, like they did last year.

Sporting lost against ManU, which had to be expected, but they won away in Kyiv, which means that they are very unlikely finish last, they still have to play against Roma and see if they can progress to the 2nd Round. I predict them to finish 3rd, and play UEFA Cup, like Benfica last year.

Benfica started very bad with 2 losses, an expected loss in Milan and an unexpected at home against Shakhtar. They still have to play against Celtic, and I don't think Celtic are unbeatable for Benfica, but even if we say Benfica finishes 4th in their group - so did Sporting last year.

And finally, Braga reached group stage, just like last year. The group is not easy, but Ikoon couldn't know that when he opened this topic, and I don't think it's impossible for them to advance - their wins against Parma and Verona last year were not easy either.

So, where are they performing worse than last year? So far, they are not. It's as simple as that. And Ikoon didn't open this topic after the first matchday, when Portugal had 6 losses and 1 draw in UC and CL, no Ikoon opened it after the 2nd matchday with 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses for Portugal, and at the same time he opened several other topics without any surprises that could be a reason for them, and just a couple of hours earlier you opened 2 of these topics. Obviously, just as a revenge for everyone discussing about Romanias surprisingly bad results. And that is lame.

And about Romanias fall: Romania can perform as bad as they want this year and the next two years, since the coefficiants they replace are bad as well, they won't fall in the rankings. They will most likely fall when they have to replace the 16.8, and not earlier. I'm pretty sure I stated that in the Romanias-fall-thread. Nevertheless, after the surprising failures of both Rapid and Dinamo, it was clear that there had to be a discussion on the impact on the Rankings. Some posts in that topic were stupid, but still no reason to open all these silly new threads.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: mckenzie87 Date: 12-10-2007, 20:32	Why would Portugal drop in the Rankings. Holland and Romania has only one team in CL where as Portugal has three. Porto won the Champions League four years ago, Sporting made the final of the Uefa Cup in 2005 and Benfica where Champions League quarter finalists in 2006. Romania had only Steau Bucharest making the Semi Finals of the Uefa Cup. Not much else

Author: Cirdan
Date: 13-10-2007, 16:44
Edited by: Cirdan
at: 13-10-2007, 16:48

@mckenzie: It doesn't matter to the rankings that the top Portuguese teams are strong and had some impressive results. What matters is the coefficiants, and Portugal has lost a 10.75 year this year, and they never made 10 points with 6 or 7 teams, and that's unlikely to change this year. Teams in the Champions League mean little to coefficiants, you have to look at both competitions, and there Russia has 4/4, compared to 4/7 for Portugal, and Romania is probably too far ahead to catch, so even if they catch Holland, Portugal will still fall 1 or 2 places in the rankings at the end of the season.

Next year will be even worse, because all the others (Germany, Russia, Netherlands, Romania) will only replace 4-6 points, while for Portugal, another 10 point year will fall away and they still have to send 6-7 teams to the competitions, so Portugal will fall.

Re: Portugal - how hard is the fall?
Author: schlumpy Date: 16-10-2007, 00:08	Portuguese teams til now are having a normal season. Romanian teams are having also a normal season. The only countries that are having an "abnormal" season, if I can call that, are Russia on the positive way and Netherlands on the negative side.