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Author: bert.kassies
Date: 15-05-2007, 15:25

Now that we know the distribution of the Fair Play spots, it is time to think about the exceptions that UEFA will make to the UEFA Cup regions in QR1 and QR2?

The regions are used for three years now. UEFA made the following changes in this period:

2004/05 (FP: Swe, Arm, Ukr)
QR1: Lie -> North
QR2: Lie -> North

2005/06 (FP: Nor, Ger, Den)
QR2: Ger(FP) -> North
QR2: Lie -> South

2006/07 (FP: Swe, Bel, Nor)
QR1: Bel-1(FP) -> South
QR2: Bel-1(FP) -> South, Bel-2: North
QR2: Fra-1(IT) -> Centr, Fra-2(IT): South

Without changes we have the following number of teams in 2007/08 (FP: Swe, Nor, Fin):

North: 30
Centr: 23
South: 23

I can think of three possible scenario's:

A) 30/22/24: Centr->South (Liechtenstein?)
B) 30/24/22: South->Centr (San Marino?)
C) 28/24/24: North->Centr, N->S (2 x Luxemburg?)

Personally I like option C, but I think option A is most likely.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: playtony Date: 15-05-2007, 16:32	We still have to wait for UEFA Cup final, to see if the cup holder spot is going to be used. This could affect 4th norwegian club (cup winner Fredrikstad) starting from second qualification round...

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: Francisco Date: 15-05-2007, 18:34 Edited by: Francisco at: 15-05-2007, 18:35	Why North/Center/South, instead of West/Center/East? Considering that Europe has bigger distances to cover in the W-E direction, it would made more sense to separate zones following meridian lines (longitude), instead of parallel lines (latitude)...

Author: moro
Date: 15-05-2007, 18:41
Edited by: moro
at: 15-05-2007, 18:59

I think CFR Cluj belongs to the center, like any other eventual team from Transilvania (Gloria Bistrita if they go in IT). Almost same meridian like Budapest and Wien.
If Timisoara goes in UC, they should be placed in the same region like serbian teams, I guess this is south.

In fact my home in Romania is 300 metres away from Ukraine, and Cluj is 200 km from my home, so put them in south would sound amasing.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: bert.kassies Date: 15-05-2007, 19:04	@playtony: Yes, you are right. If Sevilla wins the final that may change the scheme. @moro: UEFA doesn't think in towns. Last year they put Auxerre in the Southern group, and Marseille in the Central group.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: moro Date: 15-05-2007, 19:11	Ok, but I suggest them to do so with Cluj if they have one extra-team in south, and one less in centre. However, why put Auxerre in south and OM in center? They mixed bierre and milk?

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: panda Date: 15-05-2007, 20:10	Always impossible to guess the mind of uefa, but do we think that what happens is that they start with the previous year's position, put in the new teams, then say 'Oh, this doesn't work here,' and then move one team around until it does. In other words, they change it piecemeal, they do not start from the beginning each time.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: moro Date: 15-05-2007, 20:15	Yeah, but put Auxerre in south and Om in centre? Do you know what differences are between winter in Marseille and Auxerre??? But I have no problem with that. Only that Europe is not that big and they could put all teams in two pots and draw them. One extra-hour in the plain doesnt count. I think.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: panda Date: 15-05-2007, 20:17	The reason given for regional groupings, I believe, is to make travel costs lower for small teams. Team on a small budget + spectators' costs. I agree the Auxerre/ Marseille thing is v stupid, and increases my sense it's done arbitrarily (like a piece of writing where no-one bothers to check the spelling mistakes).

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 15-05-2007, 20:45

panda, I think you're right. If I remember well, the regions were introduced upon request of the clubs (European Football Forum). But the method is not very effective. Traveling costs do not depend that much on distance. It's more important that the Easyjet's and Air Berlin's are on route.

I also agree to some extent with your observation on UEFA's method in adjusting the regional groups. The method seems to be arbitrary and without a consistent set of rules, at least.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: moro Date: 15-05-2007, 21:11	Wich make me think they dont care much about little teams, otherwise they would be more attentifs to details. For many teams the adventure stops there.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 15-05-2007, 21:57
Edited by: Ricardo
at: 15-05-2007, 21:59

As we also have to take into consideration the teams that enter in Q2 and Uefa did follow the IC groupings last year,
30 in North Q1 is most likely:
in Q2 enter 3 IC teams and a Belgium and a Scottish team, with 15 winners of Q1 thsi makes even again
For me I have moved Poland to North and Luxemburg to Central, as Uefa did for the IC.

In Central we have entering Russia, Ukraine, 2 Czech, 2Swiss and 4 IC teams -> 24 is most likely. I moved Andorra from South to Central for this

In South 1 Romanian, 2 Turkish, 2 Israelian 2 Bulgarian and 4 IC teams enter ->22 makes it round again

Problem is that following this, 1 Norwegian team can be seeded with 6.509, while a Romanian team is unseeded with 13.255. THis can only be solved by moving some scandinavian or baltic country to the Southern group

That won't happen

P.S. Auxerre move to the Southern group was initiated by its last minute replacement of the Italian(=Southern) team, I wouldn't make that to a rule (though you might also either conclude that top-8 countries fit everywhere, or that IC-groupings is decisive)

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: moro Date: 15-05-2007, 22:31	Andorra is like Spain. Move them to south and put CFR Cluj in center.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: Nick Date: 16-05-2007, 06:44	If Loko Sofia wins the title in Bulgaria the seeding line in the Southern group will move further up, so that Cluj will also be unseeded!

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 17-05-2007, 09:31

The UEFA Cup cup-holder spot will not be used because Sevilla already qualified for the Champions league or the UEFA Cup. This implies that the cup winner of the 14th country on the country ranking list (Czech Republic) will gain direct access to the 1st round round, and that the cup winners of the 19th and 20th countries on the ranking list (Fredrikstad FK, Norway, and Austria Wien, Austria) have direct access to the 2nd qualifying round of the UEFA Cup.

So, now we have in QR1 the following numer of teams:

North: 29
Centr: 22
South: 23

Because there are an odd number of teams in the Northern and Southern groups in the 1st qualifying round, I assume that one of the teams from Luxembourg will be moved to the Southern group. It's just an assumption. There are no strict rules. UEFA may introduce other exceptions.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: Kaiser Date: 17-05-2007, 09:42	As for me I'm not pleased with the current regional 'unodd' system. If we receive odd number of teams in Northern and Southern groups, UEFA will rotate one team to another group. But the reason to make regional groups is to make teams is closer to each other. But that moved team will go further than its 'brothers'. So my suggestion: to abrogate this rule as it's some changable.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: Ricardo Date: 17-05-2007, 15:00	taking into account Q2 entrants (N:6, C10, S:11) I would say: Andorra to North and Belgium(Q2 entrant) to Central will solve it all. But normally Bert is closer to the truth then I.....

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: saras21 Date: 17-05-2007, 15:03	It is an interesting dicussion. I think that uefa should solve this problem somehow so the team that supposed to be seeded will not be unseeded like happenend to Beitar last year, and what can happen to Cluj this year.

Author: dinamozagreb
Date: 17-05-2007, 17:22
Edited by: dinamozagreb
at: 17-05-2007, 17:22

IT01 @ (Serbia/Slovenia/Malta v Portugal)
IT02 @ (Bulgaria/Cyprus/Macedonia v Italy)
IT03 @ (Israel/Romania2/Montenegro v Spain)
IT04 @ (Romania1/Bosnia/Andorra v Turkey/Croatia/Albania)
IT05 @ (Czech Republic/Georgia/Kazakhstan v Greece)
IT06 @ (Switzerland/Moldova/Azerbaijan v Germany)
IT07 @ (Ukraine/Belarus/Armenia v France)
IT08 @ (Austria/Slovakia/Luxembourg v Russia/Hungary)
IT09 @ (Poland/Lithuania/Wales v England)
IT10 @ (Sweden/Iceland/Ireland/Faroe Islands v Netherlands)
IT11 @ (Belgium/Latvia/N.Ireland v Denmark/Finland/Estonia)

Bert put 1-2-3-4-5 to South, 6-7-8 to Central and 9-10-11 to North.

Ricardo put 1-2-3-4 to South, 5-6-7-8 to Cental and 9-10-11 to North.

So Uefa in Intertoto put Greece to Central. But Bert thinks in UCQ2 Greece will go to South, and Ricardo to Central.

And you both put IT07 - France to Central. And Uefa put France to Central in ITC.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 17-05-2007, 17:23

With regard to QR1 only (so far) & the "fairness" of the seeding picture with the geographical regions & the proposed changes so far:

There are still two domestic issues outstanding which will affect where the seeding line should be.

1. Whether Vardar Skopje qualifies from Macedonia. They have a fair chance - being in the Cup Final (against Pobeda who could still be Champions) & only two points behind Makedonija in the final league spot.

2. Who wins the Georgian title. If it's Olimpia Rustavi (who lead by a point) Dinamo Tbilisi should be seeded in the UEFA Cup - Rustavi not.

In any case the "correct" line falls somewhere amongst the 2.420 teams.

Suduva Marijampole should definitely be seeded - Haka Valkeakoski shouldn't & Ekranas Panevezys + HJK Helsinki both depend on the aforementioned issues.

By my reckoning if Rustavi win in Georgia then the Central East group is perfect as it is. If Dinamo Tbilisi win then Nistru Otaci would be "unfairly" seeded.

Using Bert's solution is preferable to Ricardo's in the north because the last thing needed is another unseeded team added to the northern group. Moving one team from Luxembourg out would result in the seeding picture being correct only as long as Dinamo Tbilisi won the Georgian league & Vardar Skopje failed to qualify for Europe. Otherwise Ekranas & HJK would gain an advantage.

In the Southern Med section - without alternative changes - at least one Bosnian team is going to be disadvantaged as will Vardar Skopje should they actually qualify.

I'm not sure I have "solutions" yet. Just the fact that it should be pretty simple for UEFA to do what I'm doing - work out what the seeding should be first & then work out the geographical groups after. And if that means splitting teams from the same country & moving them from round to round I don't see a problem. Moving one Serbian team to the Central East section & Vaduz out might make sense for example if Dinamo won in Georgia but not if they didn't.

Author: maranton
Date: 17-05-2007, 23:44

Bert:

Why should UEFA move one of the two Luxemburg team to South and not moving a team which is the only representative of its country QR1 eg. Bulgarian team or San Marino team or Andora team to the North?
I know it is just a guess but last year nobody predicted the Belgium team been moved to the South!
Should it be more safe to leave this as unknown and wait for Uefa to announce grous (last year they did it 48 hours before the draw)?

Anyway, congratulations for the good work and keep it on!

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: bert.kassies Date: 18-05-2007, 08:59	maranton: I don't know. It's just an assumption. There are no strict rules. UEFA may introduce other exceptions. Last year they put the Belgian and French teams in QR2 in different regions. That was just a choice. It was not necessary. Other options were available. Of course it's more safe not to predict, but it's too much fun to speculate about the QR2 draw.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: playtony Date: 21-05-2007, 12:59	Bert, I am afraid, there is mistake in your "Seeding in the UEFA Cup 2007/2008" table. You put UC2 for Georgia on 2.035, although Dinamo Tbilisi is already qualified and has a qoeficient 4.035. This will move UC2 from Moldova to unseeded teams.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: bert.kassies Date: 21-05-2007, 13:39	playtony, thanks for feedback. It's fixed now.

Re: Changes to UEFA Cup regions 2007/08
Author: dinamozagreb Date: 30-05-2007, 16:51	Bert. You put ITQ5 to South in Uefa cup 2nd QR, and ITQ7 to Central. I think it is safe to say that in ITQ5 unceeded but with better coef. Liberec will beat ceeded OFI. If that playes out do you think it would be better to put Lens/Fra back to South and Liberec to their Central zone? Ps. you put IT03 @ (Israel/Romania2/Montenegro v Spain) 0.000 - 30.338 but Villarreal has 78.279...

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 30-05-2007, 18:30
Edited by: bert.kassies
at: 30-05-2007, 19:36

dinamozagreb, thanks for feedback.

First of all I like to say that someone put my attention to the fact that there is more evidence for France being put in the Central-East region than in the Southern-Mediterranean region. See UEFA Cup regions, where I now include a list of exceptions applied by UEFA.

Now your remarks:
1) IT05 is South because Greece is the highest ranked country.
2) IT07 is Central because France is the highest ranked country.
3) IT03 highest coefficient is 78.374 indeed.

Edit: Of course it's just my choice to put IT05 in South. But it's not possible to make a single change because of the even teams constraint. So, I prefer to keep it this way. But expect quite some changes to UC-QR2 and UC-R1. No need to be too precise.