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home and away
Author: rakke Date: 06-04-2007, 13:15 Edited by: rakke at: 06-04-2007, 13:15	Anyone ever made a stat about how much percent of the ties in the later (or all) stages of CL/UC in recent years are won by the team that plays the second match at home? Gut feeling tells me at least 2/3 of the encounters go to the team that plays the return at home - making the order of play almost as important as the adversary.

Re: home and away
Author: Kaiser Date: 06-04-2007, 13:24	It seems so. My idea is to make the seeded teams playing the 2nd leg at home. It will be fairly, I think. Cretainly in playoffs after a group stage (both CL and UC) return legs are played on stadiums of those teams that better passed the GS. In most countries (England, France, Germany) a cup is played in a round of 1 leg. So we should be glad that UEFA made the 1 leg too.

Re: home and away
Author: eldaec Date: 06-04-2007, 13:36	Someone around here does the maths every now and again. It typically comes out 60/40 in favour of home-leg-second if the home/away decision is made by a lottery (ie. ignoring things like the CL 2nd round where home-leg-second advantage is determined by seeding).

Re: home and away
Author: Kaiser Date: 06-04-2007, 15:29	eldaec The lottery is the draw . I've analysed: this season85 teams having return legs at home pass with 61 against. 58,2% vs 41,8% - Sizeable difference

Re: home and away
Author: keeganvogts Date: 06-04-2007, 21:38	There is no real advantage to play away first as you can read in this article. From the beginning of the EC "only" 55% of all teams reach the next round if they play away first. That is also proved by this statistic.

Re: home and away
Author: Kaiser Date: 07-04-2007, 08:47	@keengavogts Do you really think that most users do understand die Artikel Deutschisch (except me)?

Re: home and away
Author: keeganvogts Date: 07-04-2007, 13:49	I don't understand russian either. But there is a possibility to translate it. Klick on Extras on top of your browser.

Re: home and away
Author: Kaiser Date: 07-04-2007, 13:56 Edited by: Kaiser at: 07-04-2007, 14:04	@keenagvogs Where do you see my posts in Russian? Unlike you I post messages neither in my language, nor in Russian. . P.S. I speak German more-less. Beg your pardon for getting excited. But my firm idea is seeded teams play return leg at home, whatever you said, eldaec

Re: home and away
Author: badgerboy Date: 07-04-2007, 14:12	"But my firm idea is seeded teams play return leg at home, whatever you said, eldaec" Kaiser - I don't really understand why. You want to give more advantage to the supposedly better team? Surely it should be the other way round if changed at all?

Author: keeganvogts
Date: 07-04-2007, 14:17

What I mean is that I don't understand any language except german and english. I could ask for the right way in french but I wouldn't understand the description anymore.

On the other hand being online means to have the possibility to have programs that translate articles. So everyone should be able to understand what an article in russian, french, denish, romanian etc is about. It's a bit roughly I confess but it's possible to understand what an article means though.

Re: home and away
Author: Kaiser Date: 07-04-2007, 14:22 Edited by: Kaiser at: 07-04-2007, 14:22	Kaiser - I don't really understand why. You want to give more advantage to the supposedly better team? Surely it should be the other way round if changed at all? Doesn't UEFA uses the rule you mentioned? After a CL GS 1 placed teams play return leg at home. UEFA surely gives 'more advantage to the supposedly better team'!

Re: home and away
Author: MalcolmW Date: 07-04-2007, 17:58	Yes ... but that is to give a reward for finishing as high as possible in the Group Stage.

Re: home and away
Author: Kaiser Date: 07-04-2007, 19:37	Yes ... but that is to give a reward for finishing as high as possible in the Group Stage. But UEFA might give a reward for gaining coefficients (also wins) for 5 years.

Re: home and away
Author: badgerboy Date: 08-04-2007, 10:28	"But UEFA might give a reward for gaining coefficients (also wins) for 5 years". They do. It's called being seeded in the qualifying rounds & the groups & hence avoiding the other teams with lots of wins over the past 5 years

Re: home and away
Author: Kaiser Date: 08-04-2007, 15:05 Edited by: Kaiser at: 08-04-2007, 15:21	badgerboy You're quite right. Maybe admin wouldn't be pleased with us 'chattering' in this forum. So let's correspond in ICQ. Not bad! P.S. If you agree, give me your real name, please. Oh, I have answering my own question: Adam, isn't it?

Author: badgerboy
Date: 09-04-2007, 14:26

"You're quite right. Maybe admin wouldn't be pleased with us 'chattering' in this forum. So let's correspond in ICQ. Not bad!"

I don't think I like the idea of giving my personal information to a "nomad"

And anyway admin (Bert) puts up with a lot worse than our chattering!

And thirdly, I don't really like ICQ - although I did join.

Fourthly, I have no idea where "Adam" came from. Dave is my first name - if anyone needs to know it. I think there's no harm - there are a lot of Dave's out there.

Not so many Anton's though... And even fewer Veselyeffs. Or should that be Veselyev, Vasilyev?

Ukrainian, Georgian, Tatar?

Author: Kaiser
Date: 09-04-2007, 14:34
Edited by: Kaiser
at: 10-04-2007, 12:15

I am Russian and German (anything more but I don't know) origin and it's my real name and surname.

If I wrote nomad, it means that I'm a real 'nomad'. Not mad, of course

I study in Russia now so I write my ICQ place of living - Russia.

Pardon for misunderstanding. I search 'badgerboys' in ICQ and I found a man of 26 years old called Adam.

'Anton' is an antient Greek name often, as you mentioned, used in Russia and Georgia. Do you know the brother of famous Rio Ferdinand?
His name is Anton either.

And finally I suggest you not to disgress from the topic (I had lots of problems cause of that)

P.S. How do you know my first name and last one?

Re: home and away
Author: rakke Date: 10-04-2007, 17:01	Stats for all matches (from round 1) are worthless to check if the order of play is important - only ties without seeding should be taken into account (so order of play is only variable). I did this for the last 5 years (CL: only QF and SF - UC: only from 1/8F to F in current format): Result is 58%-42%. Quite a difference if you ask me!

Author: keeganvogts
Date: 12-04-2007, 05:35

I looked it up too (only last 5 years, only SF/QF in CL & SF/QF + 1/8F in UC):

43:56 for the away teams = 43%:57%
(I didn't count Milan vs Inter in QF 2004/05 in CL because it was abandoned and rewarded to Milan)

That makes the percent slightly different from your counting.
And maybe one of us counted wrong in a few cases or rounded different. Anyway.

If I consider the result in numbers is 43:56 the difference is just 13 which isn�t too much at all.

Re: home and away
Author: eldaec Date: 14-04-2007, 15:44	Some proprtion of those will be mismatches between top 5 country teams and 10th and beyond where home advatage is largely irrelevent. Espeicially in the UC, but also to some extent in the CL QFs. I'd be interested to see if the proportion grows or shrinks if you only include ties between top 5 country sides.

Author: keeganvogts
Date: 15-04-2007, 15:57

I analysed QF and HF of the CL from 1955/56 until last season. I didn't consider matches that were decided by dicing a coin or by playing a 3rd match on a neutral ground or were decided for one team due to crowd trouble or whatever other reason by the other team.

Result:

QF: 51 / 42 (in % 55 / 45)
HF: 87 / 96 (in % 48 / 52)

So I see no real advantage to play away first. It's almost equal in both cases.