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Author: porto-1978
Date: 10-11-2006, 21:01

Hi. This topic is to be seen as nothing more than an ilustration of what would happen if the european football changed to the format of real european leagues. I?ve choosen a way to do it and i?ll pretend this was happening...
I like european football quite a lot as it is by now but this would be an alternative way... Even knowing it have some negative efects, thinjing about european club football in general i think something like this would work.
I?d like to hear comments (about the idea in general and/or about small aspects of operacionalization)

So let?s start the simulation.

This simulation is based on a new format signed by all FA between 2004-05. So, for the domestic leagues in 2005-2006 FA and clubs would know about this:

(from Country ranking 2005)
nr. 1-7: champion with direct place in EuroLeague1
nr. 1-3: 2nd and 3rd in league in QR3
nr. 4-7: 2nd in league in QR3
nr. 8: champion and runner up in QR3
nr. 9-16: champion in QR3
nr. 17-27: champion in QR2
nr. 28-50 (except Liechenstein): champion in QR1

Let?s supose the leagues finished the same way they did...

Author: porto-1978
Date: 10-11-2006, 21:06

Fisrt year of the league.
Barcelona won their league in Spain so there?s no need to give an extra spot.
Directly qualified: Barcelona (TH), Chelsea, Inter, Lyon, Bayern, Porto, PSV.

Now, qualification rounds to complete the EuroLeague (I).

QR1 with same clubs than QR1 of CL this year. Let?s pretend same outcomes...

QR2 with winners of QR1:
Ekranas Panevezys, FH Hafnarfjardar, Metalurgs Liepaja, MyPa-47, Cork City, Sioni Bolnisi, Rabotnicki Skopje, Siroki Brijeg, B36 Torshavn, Nova Gorica, Sheriff Tiraspol (11 teams)

and:
Steaua Bucuresti, Levski Sofia, FC Zürich, Djurgårdens IF, SCP Ruzomberok, DVSC Debrecen, Red Star Belgrade, Vålerengen IF, FC København (9 clubs)

(2nd placed from countries 10-15 not included, contrary to actual system of reaching CL)

Let?s pretend the winners are the same from this season QR2 plus 2 clubs, the only that were eliminated but won one of the legs (Zurich and Djugardens)

Author: porto-1978
Date: 10-11-2006, 21:08

To complete the qualification...

QR3 with winners from QR2:
Steaua Bucaresti, Levski Sofia, Ruzomberok, Robotnicki Skopje, Cverna Zvezda, Legia Warsaw, FCKopenhavn, Dinamo Zagreb, FC Zurich, Djugardens (10 clubs)

and:
Real Madrid, Valencia, Roma, AC Milan, Manchester Utd, Liverpool, Werder Bremen, Bordeaux, Sporting, Ajax, Celtic, Slovan Liberec, AEK, Olympiakos, CSKA Moscva, Galatasaray, Maccabi Haifa, Shakhtar Donetsk, Anderlecht, Austria Wien (20 clubs)

To this simulation i will risk those who lost QR3 this season.
From the other, i?ll choose the best seeded in rank2006.
So, Levski Sofia, Shakhtar Donetsk and Galatasaray are the highest ranked clubs that i consider not qualified. Remember it?s just a simulation.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 10-11-2006, 21:18
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 10-11-2006, 21:20

So here?s my simulation for the first season of Euro League 1 (starting last September)

Barcelona (TH), Chelsea, Inter, Lyon, Bayern, Porto, PSV, (and from QR3) Milan, Madrid, Liverpool, Manchester, Valencia, Roma, Celtic, Sporting, Bordeaux, Steaua, Werder Bremen, Olympiakos, CSKA Moscva, AEK, Anderlecht.

It?s the 1st year so 22 clubs is ok after it will have just 20 clubs as the other EuroLeagues (II, III,...)

This clubs would play home and away against all the others. I think it could be very interesting.

Meanwhile the national leagues continue without this 22 clubs, playing for the places I EuroLeague II (formed in a different but similar way to EuroLeague I)

National Cups still count with the clubs from EuroLeague.

I?ll not post yet about internal competition for next year places nor about the possible results in "imaginary" EuroLegue. Just because this is an invitation for you to talk about it if you like.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 10-11-2006, 21:56
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 10-11-2006, 22:00

Ok, even with no feed back i want to keep simulating...

The rest of the clubs (all except those 22) will try to get in EuroLeague II. There?s not this league yet, so there?s no promoted clubs to EuroLeague I.

So for this seasons the 22 clubs just will try to get the best they can. Still we could make EuroLeague I with 20 clubs for next season. So the worst 2 clubs in Euro League I will be depromoted to Euro League II for next season.
I will wait at least for the end of Group Stage in CL to choose the 2 (suposed) worst clubs from the 22 i?ve included in EuroLeague.
(Anderlecht and Bordeaux are probably the best contenders at this moment).

For the formation of EuroLeague II i choose this format:
- 2 worst clubs in this season EuroLeagueI
- 18 winners of QR3 (no direct places)

For this season FA and clubs would know that:
(country ranking 2006)
nr. 1-6: champion and runner up in QR3
nr. 7-12: champion in QR3, runner up in QR2
nr. 13-16: champion in QR3
nr. 17-27: champion in QR2
nr. 28-50 (except Liechenstein): champion in QR1

QR1 (22 clubs); QR2 (11+17=28 clubs); QR3 (14+22=36 clubs) - this is to be played in next August/September

Author: porto-1978
Date: 10-11-2006, 22:21
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 10-11-2006, 22:38

Possibilities for Qualification Rounds of Euro League II (2007-08) in the top countries:

- In Spain no Barça, no Real, no Valencia. So for now Sevilla and Zaragoza in better position to be in QR3
- In England no Chelsea, no Manchester, no Liverpool. So, Bolton, Portsmouth, Arsenal as contenders…
- In Italy no Inter, no Roma, no Milan. So, Palermo and other clubs fighting for first places
- In France no Lyon neither Bordeaux. So, Nancy, Lille, Lens, Auxerre…
- In Germany no Bayern neither Bremen. So, Stuttgart, Schalke etc.
- In Portugal no Porto neither Sporting. So Benfica, Marítimo, Nacional, Leiria etc…
- In Netherlands no PSV. So Ajax and AZ as main contenders…
- In Greece no Olympiakos neither AEK. So Panathinaikos as favourites, and Aigaleo, PAOK…
- In Russia no CSKA. So, probably Spartak and Lokomotiv in “my imaginary” QR?s
- In Romenia no Steaua. So, Dinamo and Rapid probably…
- In Scotland no Celtic. So, Heart, Rangers etc…
- In Belgium no Anderlecht. So, Genk, Brugge etc…

In this simulation other countries are not represented in Euro League I, so all clubs from that countries would be playing their league, by now.
Champions of those countries will go to QR1/2/3

Note: for all this clubs to get into Euro League I will take this season and another (at least), passing by the Euro League II. (Number of promoted/depromoted will soon be anounced by my/yours imagination; but that only need to be known in the beginning of 2007-08).

Author: Francisco
Date: 10-11-2006, 23:08

I think that entries in EL given to teams by what they achieved in the last season is HIGHLY unfair

For me I would use the team rankings (not affected by the country component) of the last 10 seasons and the order of the teams would be the order in which to give spots, even if that meant that the first portuguese team (in the case FC Porto) wouldn't made it into the EL1, and that Sporting (my team) would be relegated to the EL3.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 11-11-2006, 00:54

Yes i admit it?s somehow "unfair". But also somehow "fair" as clubs are competing for that. Even worst is that places in EL are decided in two games in QR3. Not a season but just two only games can decide...

The idea is to start from something (i started the simulation this season). But this is to be dynamic. I think that can happen some strange things at first years but with time things will go naturaly. I didn?t explained very here but i made it in other topics. This could be a way to have a ranking of (let?s say) top 100 clubs in Europe (if 5 leagues of 20 clubs) without the need of doing any maths. The rankings and seedings are only used in the process of doing the leagues and loose progressivly their impact. See that cration of League II is more horizontal in terms of use of the actual rankings than the creation of League I (year after year less runners up from top countries, until we get just 2 QR).

I?ll answer to Francisco sugestion telling the problems i see in that process... At first let me tell you it would be much easier. Of course with time it would flow, but i think that not a so good start for the leagues for this reasons:

- going just to the points made in UEFA competitions carry to this leagues the problems of the recent past (controversy about the system because it?s not very logical, because of the degrees between countries in ranking, distribution too horizontal for some too vertical for the majority...). Example: countries that play with 6/7/8 clubs each season had a lot of clubs in last 10 years; this base would lead us to have Leeds or Rayo in front of clubs in 1st level in their countries while they are in 2nd AND in front of decent clubs from many other countries.
Of course the level of countries with that many clubs in Europe for a lot of years is clearly high. But the number of clubs they send (and their position in seeding system helped by country 0.3/0.5) had been quite controverse... Why gap between 3/4 and not 4/5? Etc...
So this way the leagues would suffer from the very same cancer they want to avoid... (the influence of "aleatory" rules that are just one in millions of possibilities) 2 or 3 clubs more in Uefa by year make a lot a diference in 10 or even 5 years... My solution can be a lot of work but it?s just not to have so much work (and controversy) in the future.

- i think that for making this leagues the most important is that they reflect (progressivly with more accuracy) the quality of each club, placing it in levels and playing with each of its level twice to rank it in its exact place inside its level. And i think we ccan say (after a couple of seasons) that 7th placed in Euro League II is the 27th best club of Europe. But i can?t say if the 27th in actual UEFA Ranking (that i see now is Benfica) is really the 27th best of Europe... And surely that the 27th club that gained more points in the last 10 years is not the 27th best club of Europe just now, for sure.

- i think clubs should play to be in EuroLeagues (even if i included 7 direct places in 1st year, to make a progressive process from vertical to horizontal hierarchy)... So the recent internal results (last season) are the only way to select the most in form to fight in qualifications. That?s fun, competitive and sportif... Going to a table of rankings is not fun for sure and carry to the future the recent problems in the rankings and seedings...

Francisco, i didn?t made this idea because i?m fan of FCP or other club. I don?t mind if its apart in 1st year or if starts in 2nd league. For example, in my simulation Arsenal, Ajax and other clubs are out but in some time i believe they could be in ELI (but i only will lead the simulation that way if they do good enough in next season(s) to be promoted). And of course there?s clubs in my simulation apearing in League I but (2 of them this season, some more next season) will be depromoted. Normal for the warming of a new competition.

One point, maybe some people would like to see richer clubs in EuroLeague from the very beginning. I would say to them that if those clubs are good they will progress soon.
Let?s see what a top3 country can do in maximum:
- 1st year: 3 clubs ELI
- 2nd year: 3 clubs ELI and 2 clubs ELII
- 3rd year: 5 clubs ELI and 2 clubs ELIII
- 4th year: 5 clubs ELI, 2 clubs ELII and 1 club ELIV
- 5th year: 7 clubs ELI/II (all in I would be too much but still possible), 1 club in EL III and 1 club in ELV
- 6th year: 8 clubs in ELI/II, 1 club in ELIII, 1 club in ELIV, 1 club in ELV
and so on...
For a low ranked country:
- 1st year: 1 club ELI
- 2nd year: 1 club ELI and 1 club ELII
- 3rd year: 2 clubs ELI and 1 (or probably 2 bacause of progression in ranking) in ELIII
After that, the same possibilities for high or low ranked countries, all can put 1 more club per year in the lowest division...

Re: simulation of Euro League
Author: Lupta_Steaua Date: 11-11-2006, 03:40 Edited by: Lupta_Steaua at: 11-11-2006, 03:42	Porto-1978, This ia reobably the best idea for an integrated European championship, But it looks like this is not going to happen in the near future. So, very good work on the setup, but positions might be different by that time

Author: porto-1978
Date: 11-11-2006, 05:31

Lupta_Steaua

The idea of the topic is to provide an example of this idea. Years ago i made this kind of thing but the system was much more confusing... Also i made an example but with the previous years. Due to the subjects of many topics in this forum i started to think again about it. This time i want to give an example but starting at this season. It?s diferent because previous seasons had hapened and are history so intouchable. But we can imagine an alternative reality starting now (or months ago but this season) and even not watching the games nor knowing the results (there are none) we can think if it would be competitive and enjoyable to follow, if it?s a good or bad idea, fair or not etc... The level shown by clubs in reality can help to imagine general outcomes (top, bottom of table, promoted/depromoted). This can show progressions and dynamics in the leagues while they are formed, just to see the process of it.
So it doesn?t matter if positions will change, of course they will. The point is: can this system reflect the reality and actuality of clubs? I?m aware that the 22 clubs i mentioned are not necessarly the best 22! But can a system like this work well after how much time of implementation? My guess is that it doesn?t reflect very well in first 2 seasons, but after it gains progressive acuracy in terms of distribution of clubs by divisions. And so by rankings - this made also countries are ranked easily like in cyclism or athletism team races. Aleluia! No more troubles about points divided by %?s 1-3?s and that kind of stuf that turns football artifitial.

I know it will not happen (at least so far) and there?s weack points in this way. As an example it could start at any moment. This has nothing to do with oportunism. The other time my example would (if it was real!) take 2 european cups to my club, or making more enjoyable the victories that could had been achieved in those years. Imagine that instead of UC and CL FCP wan the EL II title in 2003 and win the EL I the next year. I would consider that a greater achievment.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 11-11-2006, 12:11

Porto-1978

It's an interesting simulation which you've obviously put a fair amount of thought into.

I have to say I agree with Francisco though that qualification for a Euroleague based on the results of just one season doesn't really work.

Your examples are only theoretical I know, but imagine that the first Euroleague was to be based on this season - Sevilla wins La Liga, Palermo wins Serie A, Bayern doesn't win in Germany. It would seem too arbitrary so I think you'd have to use a longer period of results - maybe with the current domestic champions guaranteed a qualifying spot of some kind.

Another issue (one I have with all ideas that take Euroleague teams away from their domestic leagues) is that of fixtures. I know some people complain there are too many matches for the best players these days but really I think the top clubs are used to this. They don't rest when there are gaps in the calendar - they go on tours etc.

Right now a club in England has 38 domestic league fixtures and up to 13 Champions League fixtures (excluding qualifiers). I wont count cup matches because I assume they would remain unchanged. In addition the big clubs actually want the second group stage (or at least the fixtures lost when that was removed) reintroduced - so 17 CL matchdays.

That's 55 fixtures now but you want to reduce it to 42 - or 38 after one year. What do they do the rest of the time?

More tours or friendlies? More free dates for dull international friendlies? Create some meaningless cups? Lots of play-offs at the end of the season - fine but rather defeating the object of a pure Euroleague in the first place...

For me some kind of Euroleague might happen someday soonish but if it does I suspect the clubs involved will also remain involved in their domestic league too.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 11-11-2006, 18:11

Badgerboy

I think the leagues should reflect the most in form clubs of Europe. Why i consider Barcelona, Real, Juve, Bayern and others some of the best clubs? Because of european sucess? Yes, but specially because they won a lot of internal titles or top places that led them to play european competitions.
This to say: if the clubs are in good form they should win their leagues or finish in top 2/3. Otherwise there?s some club(s) deserving more. The league is to be played in the next season, so why to count on other seasons.
Isn?t the objective of CL the same of EL, to choose a fair european champion? So... tho acesse to the league you take in consideration last season and i hear no complaint.

Through the ranking you just look at past, and past in competitions with the access method that we know... If this season Bolton win their league why not to give them the right to play CL/EL? Should we put the rights of a 4th or 5th club in front of them just because they had been generally better? If they are as good they will not to fail next year and just start a degree below. If Bolton was just "lucky" winning their league they will prove it in EL, being depromoted. By the way, Sevilla is not champion yet, neither Palermo, Bolton or Rennes. But if they do finish there (or in top3) why should they be replaced in EL by Atletico Madrid, Nottingham Forest, Juventus, St. Etienne or other because of history?!? Platini will not play for none of them...

Of course one year or two don?t work perfectly. But after 5 years the EL reflects the last 5 years of all clubs. The rankings don?t reflect that as good. In EL clubs would play with all the others from the same level: domestic 1st division / EL 1-5...
It?s not arbitrary when Bayern play twice with all 1st level clubs in their country and some club finish the league in front of them. This can?t be called arbitrary. Arbitrary is the amount of points that the 5th placed of country nr.8 can have in european competitions, while the 5th classified of country nr.9 will do zero! Sometimes those countries can be very close and the nr8 can be in front just because of some results 5 years ago... This is arbitrary. Also is arbitrary that if you count the country coeficient to get clubs coeficient or not, or if you count on that more or less, is just enought to change the seedings and so for sure also who make points, progress and can make more points. Arbitrary is considering 3 points the value deserved for being in CL. There?s so many things arbitrary in actual system that i don?t see how can a league with the best internally in previous season can be called arbitrary or unfair.

Do you want something more arbitrary than an european champion being choosen (sometimes in penalties) from 2 clubs that played just with some clubs (6!) to get in the final?!

"That's 55 fixtures now but you want to reduce it to 42 - or 38 after one year. What do they do the rest of the time?"

- national cups: each FA can choose their model for the cup; it can be italian style with groups, always direct elimination etc. One possibility here is to qualify directly to a grup stage the clubs of a country inside the EL plus some others that play internally and get qualified... or else direct elimination.
I can give this example, after some rounds between spanish low division clubs the first division clubs play a round with the best of them. Imagine there?s 8 spanish clubs in EL?s (for example Barça, Real, Valencia, Sevilha, Deportivo, Zaragoza, Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid. To form 4 groups of 4 there?s 8 places left. Imagine those clubs are Celta, Espanyol, Betis, Real Sociedad, Villarreal, Osasuna, Zaragoza and Racing. So this "internal clubs" would have a possibility each year to play in agroup such as Madrid-Valencia etc. or Barcelona-Sevillha etc... Winners would go to semi finals and then final. This is just an example. You can also imagine direct elimination cups... Let?s imagine this semi finals of english cup: Arsenal (EL1) Vs Portsmouth (EL4) and Liverpool (EL1) Vs Sheffield Wed/Utd (english leagues). Probably this last club had eliminated Newcastle (EL2) to be there. This are just examples.

- european cup: this could be a cup with direct elemination between clubs in euroleagues (and probably also some defeated in QR3 or depromoted from EL V)... Imagine you take 128 to that cup and make it in direct elemination, so 6 rounds until the final (12 games). This would be a way for clubs from diferent levels play each other, like in national cups by now.

This two competition would permit clubs to play more 10 or 20 games, depending on the format choosen and on how long they remain in those competitions...

"More tours or friendlies? More free dates for dull international friendlies?" No.
"Create some meaningless cups?" Don?t think te Euro League, the Euro Cup and the internal cups are meaningless...
"Lots of play-offs at the end of the season" Not at all my idea is to reduce QR to the minimum. Well some play-offs to decide promotion/depromotion for clubs in the sub-top and sub-bottom of consecutive leagues can be good. Let?s say 3 last of the league replaced by 3 first of the next league. But nr.4-5 may have to play a play off with nr.16-17 of the other league...

"For me some kind of Euroleague might happen someday soonish but if it does I suspect the clubs involved will also remain involved in their domestic league too."

I suspect that also. And in order to do that i think the leagues will be too small... I would prefer big leagues assuming the consequences.
People in Spain like to watch Real-Barcelona; in Italy Milan-Inter and so on. If the clubs are currently at same european level, they will play between them home and away for EL. Meanwhile they can play other competitions, probably also between them.
In theory, by this format, Barcelona and Real still can play:
- twice in EL
- twice in ECup or even more if go to finals
- twice in spanish cup or even more if go on finals
- european or national supercups...
So, plenty of derbies still! And is or is not, in actuality, Barcelona-Chelsea a derby?

Author: Lunaris
Date: 11-11-2006, 20:34

hi porto, i had a similar idea, but i created it the other way round
first stage i implement the regional leagues, and the winners and some teams along (depends on the country) get to these leagues, next stage would be the second european league and in the third year we would finally have a first league

this is how the structure looks like
7 regional leagues of 18 or 20 clubs (you could implement 22 too if you want)
a second league and 1 european league (both consisting of the same number

promotion relegation:
i build up 7 region leagues, consisting of 7 countries each (i let away san marino and andorra, as they are too weak and liechtenstein, who simply don't have a league) - how it's distributed is listed below

i choose 4 teams being relegated from the regional leagues, that means 4 getting up, my proposal is to let the champion of the best country (could be the best of a ranking similar to the uefa-ranking) in for sure and the other 6 fight in a play-off for the other three spots

the same relegation procedure works from the second league to the regional leagues (again 7 regions competing for 4 spots)

this is how i'd build up the regions (i know some are very strong, others rather weak, but in my opinion this will even up, as the winners of the weak regions will have more troubles winning the play-offs for the second league)

north-west:
England
Schottland
Wales
Nordirland
Irland
Faröer
Island

north:
Dänemark
Norwegen
Schweden
Finnland
Estland
Lettland
Litauen

east:
Russland
Ukraine
Kasachstan
Belarus
Georgien
Armenien
Aserbaidschan

south-east:
Israel
Türkei
Griechenland
Rumänien
Bulgarien
Zypern
Moldawien

balkan:
Ungarn
Serbien
Slowenien
Kroatien
Mazedonien
Albanien
Bosnien
(Montenegro)

central:
Deutschland
Polen
Tschechien
Slowakei
Österreich
Italien
Malta

west:
Niederlande
Belgien
Luxemburg
Schweiz
Frankreich
Portugal
Spanien

so what do you think of this idea?

Author: ignjat63
Date: 11-11-2006, 20:47

badger,

I've been reading your post about number of matches per season for the top teams - 50 to 60 matches a season not including national teams etc. Do you think (or pehaps know) if the players are really up to it or perhaps they are taking something that is still allowed (not yet forbidden). I could not help remembering bikers and the scandal just before tour de France - almost every top biker seemed to have been involved.

I am for as many matches a year as possible fot the top footballers (who are overpayed and overpriced anyway so screw them) but not if their health is endangered in any way. I admit knowing next to nothing about it in the top 5 leagues.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 11-11-2006, 21:54

Ignjat

I really don't know enough about the subject. I'd be surprised if there was much drugs use in football with all the testing - or potential testing. But that's just my opinion.

As for the physical effort required to play the number of matches. Again I really don't know. I find it strange that part-time teams in England can be asked to play two or three games a week at the end of the season in the event of long cup runs etc. & noone bats an eyelid but ask multi-millionaire professional players to do the same & managers etc. are up in arms. I guess it's to do with the levels of athleticism involved & the greater risk of injury at such a high level - it's just something I don't really get though. Sorry!

Author: porto-1978
Date: 11-11-2006, 23:49

Lunaris, to build up the leagues from the bottom to the top is probably more logical and easy. I?m trying to figure out how can my system adapt that idea... But the more i think about it the more i see that in that system maybe it?s not so relevant. I?ll try to explain... In my idea, at the end of 1st year EL II is formed and from EL I just few clubs are depromoted. If instead of that we move almost all teams in first euro league to EL I, remaining just some of them in a new league (EL II) with new clubs from national leagues... we?re doing just almost the same... So i don?t know how to building leagues the other way around really brings something new.

I remember to read about your idea of the euroleagues in the past. I don?t think it?s a bad idea. In fact, the regional zones can make qualification to bottom European global league easier (it?s diferent to choose clubs from 49 diferent leagues or to have a midle stage with 7 or other number of leagues - it?s easier because there?s just 7 winners, they can compete between instead of qualifications with 49 winners). I think that?s the most positive aspect of your (Lunaris) format.

But it?s very dificult to create regional zones... Those 7 have some logic but no division of this kind is logical at all... Greece is Balcans but also south-east; Italy is not more central in Europe than Switzerland; etc...

Euro Leagues with clubs of diferent european countries have each time more interest as the continent is slowly geting each time more a comunity of nations. But if this kind of things happen i will miss (at least a bit) the domestic leagues... To ruin in some way de power of national leagues is one of the worse aspects of this projects. So one goal is to try to do it interfering the less possible in domestic leagues. So, one aditional problem of Lunaris idea is that at the end of the project there?s 2 euro leagues and 7 regional leagues. If the size is 20 clubs, there will be 180 european clubs outside domestic leagues. I think that is to ruin too much the domestic leagues. In my idea (5 euro leagues of 20 clubs) there will be 100 european clubs outside domestic leagues. So quality of the leagues is less ruined.

By the way, i guess that in majority of the cases, countries that could put a lot of clubs in the euroleagues have strong 2nd leagues, so that 1st leagues could remain enjoyable with some clubs promoted (ex: France, Germany, England, Spain, Italy). In other hand, probably many countries are not able to send clubs to euro leagues, or just one or two from time to time; well sometimes this can be good transfering clubs that have no rivals in their league (ex. Rosenborg some time ago) and making the decisions in that leagues more emotive and competitive. The bigest problem should be for countries that could have their (3, 4 or 5...) best clubs always in euroleagues and without other good clubs to make a strong league. But even that way, a league without top clubs can have less quality but be more competitive and emotive. (Also sub-top clubs can develop...)

This said, in the case of having regional leagues as midle term between continental and national leagues, for me that would be better not with 7 regions but just with 3 or 4 (plus at least 2 continental levels). Or else, Lunaris format but with less clubs per regional league...
But i still like more my idea (maybe because i thought more about it)... Cheers!

Author: porto-1978
Date: 12-11-2006, 01:37
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 12-11-2006, 02:14

To make this simulation i?ve decided the rules giving direct places. Then i made QR similar to previous for CL so that it?s less aleatory to choose the clubs to progress each round. Just QR3 was dificult to decide. Not to count on clubs that loose the QR3 it?s reasonable (even if it means Ajax or other out) but to count on country ranking to choose the winners it?s so much. Not always (or never) that happen and if FCK eliminated Ajax why not FCK in the group? That?s a point i can?t solve. Let?s pretend Ajax was eliminated but by another unseeded team or that FCK eliminated Ajax in the simulation too?
Seedings in my QR3 are quite diferent - 5 seeded in CLQR3 are out in my simulation. But Madrid, Manchester, Roma, Celtic, Sporting, Bordeaux, Bremen, Olympiakos and Anderlecht in, all of them better ranked than last unseeded in CLQR3 this season. In my model there?s 15 ties instead of 16. So, this means my seeded teams are Milan, Madrid, Liverpool, Manchester, Valencia, Roma, Ajax, Celtic, Sporting, Bordeaux, Steaua, Bremen, Olympiakos, CSKA and AEK. So, one way would be consider this the winners. But in order to give acuracy to the simulation, if Ajax lost with FCK why should they progress. But as probably the tie would not be FCK against Ajax, and as i?m taking ranking position to choose the winners, one option is consider the first unseeded progressing. So in this simulation (i just realised now) Anderlecht had eliminated Ajax in QR3.
To consider FCK instead of Anderlecht could be valid for the efect os simulation, it may have more logic even, but i?ll keep it the way it is. Possible argument: if FCK eliminated 7th best seeded why would not eliminate any other? Still, it could had been Liverpool-FCK in the simulation, anyway............................

The 22 clubs of the simulation are all in CL. That?s good to compare them better. In CL some of them play or will play together and if more than one go to UC in that competitions we can still have games between them. Of course the Euro League would be all against all and we can?t have all that games. But there are some. Competitions are diferent, as well as motivations and timings. But still is the best way i can see for doing this simulation.

So i?ll start by puting the 22 clubs in order based on results between them in CL. Until May more games will happen and that can be updated. Afterwards, for the games between clubs of same country that had not played between them in CL or UC, i can count on the results between those clubs in national leagues. This only when they don?t play in CL/UC because those are european competitions as EL, so probably more similar in terms of motivation etc. So i can?t count national leagues results until is clear that the clubs in question will not play each other in CL/UC.

So until now...
(N/X) means (pts against other in EL/total) 1pt draw; 3pts win
tiebreak 1: for top of table best (6/6) than (3/3); for bottom (0/3) better than (0/6)
tiebreak 2: goal diference with clubs in EL
tiebreak 3: results between the clubs
tiebreak 4: total points in CL/UC even with clubs not in EL
tiebreak 5: global goal diference in CL/UC

1. AC Milan (9/9)
2. Lyon (6/6)
3. Valencia (6/6)
4. Manchester (3/3)
5. Bayern (7/9)
6. Chelsea (7/9)
7. Liverpool (7/9)
8. Madrid (6/9)
9. PSV (4/6)
10. Roma (4/9)
11. Sporting (4/9)
12. CSKA (1/3)
13. Porto (1/3)
14. Barcelona (2/9)
15. Bremen (1/6)
16. Anderlecht (1/6)
17. Olympiakos (1/9)
18. AEK (1/9)
19. Celtic (0/3)
20. Inter (0/6)
21. Steaua (0/9)
22. Bordeaux (0/9)

Author: porto-1978
Date: 12-11-2006, 02:58

Already played in nationa leagues:
Chelsea 1-0 Liverpool
Manchester 2-0 Liverpool
Bordeaux 1-2 Lyon
Werder 3-1 Bayern
Olympiakos 1-0 AEK
Roma 0-1 Inter
Milan 3-4 Inter
Sporting 1-1 Porto
Barcelona 1–1 Valencia
Madrid 2-0 Barcelona

If this results will count the main move is probably Inter up.

I?m thinking that maybe is better to count this results as first choice, because even being in national competitions the games take place in a long championship as EL, so more similar in timings and importance of each game. But still have doubts. It?s also possible to count all (even in national cups) and divide by the number of "double games" (a single final is just a half "double game") but maybe that?s too confusing...

So i?ll just add the games in national leagues. Cups and european cups don?t count for clubs from same country. I thing the cup/league format is enough for the decision. And as games between clubs ffrom same country in the league part of the CL/UC are very "exceptional"...

Author: porto-1978
Date: 12-11-2006, 03:23
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 12-11-2006, 03:29

Positions with CL games plus national leagues games:

1. Lyon (9/9)
2. Manchester (6/6)
3. Chelsea (10/12)
4. Valencia (7/9)
5. AC Milan (9/12)
6. Madrid (9/12)
7. Bayern (7/12)
8. PSV (4/6)
9. Liverpool (7/15)
10. Inter (6/12)
11. Bremen (4/9)
12. Sporting (5/12)
13. CSKA (1/3)
14. Porto (2/6)
15. Roma (4/12)
16. Olympiakos (4/12)
17. Barcelona (3/15)
18. Anderlecht (1/6)
19. AEK (1/12)
20. Celtic (0/3)
21. Steaua (0/9)
22. Bordeaux (0/12)

Author: badgerboy
Date: 12-11-2006, 13:47
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 12-11-2006, 15:52

Porto-1978

Much as I'm enjoying the simulation I still think if you're looking for any form of "reality" as to what might really happen then your method of choosing teams just isn't going to happen.

You say that the purpose of a Euroleague is the same as for the CL & you want the teams in the best current form to be involved. But you're also creating a top division that will be changed only by a couple of promotions & relegations a year. So for me the initial formation has to be (and indeed will be) far less arbitrary.

In reality money & tradition might have far too much to do with any Euroleague that is formed but assuming it doesn't then something like the five year coefficient rankings with a limit on three (or four?) teams per country seems a more likely method of forming the initial league.

I've continued my own ideas on a separate thread since I expand a bit & don't want to totally hijack this one...

Re: simulation of Euro League
Author: badgerboy Date: 12-11-2006, 15:04 Edited by: badgerboy at: 12-11-2006, 15:54	Removed to separate thread - I hope! This message doesn't seem to want to go away!

Re: simulation of Euro League
Author: badgerboy Date: 12-11-2006, 15:10 Edited by: badgerboy at: 12-11-2006, 15:49	Removed to separate thread.

Re: simulation of Euro League
Author: badgerboy Date: 12-11-2006, 15:35 Edited by: badgerboy at: 12-11-2006, 15:48	Removed to separate thread

Author: Lunaris
Date: 12-11-2006, 17:30

well porto, i know the problem of creating the regions is there, of course greece is in balkan too, or switzerland in central

my way was trying to get 7 regions with 7 countries each and that in a more or less good geographic distribution

of course there are problems, like hungary playing in balkan, malta playing in central, or moldawia playing in south-east, but at least it's 7 countries per league

and as badger said, i think that my system makes it easier to decide which clubs take part in which league, of course the first start in the regions can be a mess too, but it's still somewhat easier than to start with a european league

at least every country may have a club in at first in the regions, of course sooner or later some countries will loose that place, for example luxemburg, i doubt that they do have a team that's strong enough to compete with the other western teams

in the end i guess my system would even it all out, some counrteis will have many clubs in the regions, others none, and i doubt that there will be many countries taking part in the top two tiers

lunaris

Author: porto-1978
Date: 12-11-2006, 22:39

Lunaris, i don?t know how to make regions better than you did, maybe it?s impossible. It?s very well done. But i don?t know if it make sense to devide if the goal is to unite FA of all the continent. Ourdays we can have games between portuguese and hungarian clubs and that?s good to enlarge the links between this nations of EU. But that would be practical impossible, unless some portuguese and hungarian club(s) get in the top 40 of best clubs... So for the unity of european football to create regions can be not that good, that?s why i prefer a system similar to the simulation.

Badgerboy said "if you're looking for any form of "reality" as to what might really happen then your method of choosing teams just isn't going to happen."
I konow, and even if it happens will not be in the same seasons. In that prespective maybe it?s a waste of time but i feel like to waste it.

"But you're also creating a top division that will be changed only by a couple of promotions & relegations a year."

Yes, but all leagues of all countries work like that, why that is a problem in european level and not in countries? Of course a 2nd level club can be better than many of the 1st league, but if it is like that some will fall and other will move up. Isn?t English PL played by the best english clubs?

If at continental level changes are more year after year, just enlarge the promotion/depromotion places. If 5 clubs go up and 5 down only half of a league is maintained year after year... except 1st league, more stable maintainig 15 places. Anyway after after year there are about 15-20 clubs that are almost always in CL for the last years...

I admit a problem in my idea: too litlle changes in the constitution of each league between 1st and 2nd year. That is not a good thing so i will change a bit some aspects maintining what is already simulated. This changes will turn possible that clubs from top countries that don?t achieve top-3/2 at first year can enter in the next year directly in EL I instead of II (if win their national league and a play-off)

Author: porto-1978
Date: 12-11-2006, 23:43
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 13-11-2006, 03:23

So this are the changes:

(Euro Leagues Process - 2nd Season 07-08)

- This season 4 clubs are depromoted from EL I
- special play-off for champions of top countries: winners directly to EL I and loosers go to EL II.

For this season FA and clubs would know that:
(country ranking 2006)
nr. 1-8: champion in a play-off for direct access to EL I (or else directy placed in EL II) and runner up in QR3
nr. 9: champion and runner up in QR3
nr. 10-12: champion in QR3 and runner up in QR2
nr. 17-27: champion in QR2
nr. 28-50 (except Liechenstein): champion in QR1

So for next year, Euro League I (still 22 clubs):
- 18 remaining clubs from this season EL I
- 4 winners of the play-off for EL I

And in Euro League II (also 22 clubs):
- 4 loosers of play-off
- 4 depromoted clubs from EL I
- 14 winners of QR3
QR1 (22)
QR2 (11+19=30)
QR3 (15+13=28)=14

With this changes:
- 4 new clubs for next year, from the champions of top8 countries in country ranking2006. I like the idea of using the last country ranking, as for clubs, and as this is a simulation i could choose one or another. I choose this just to maintain at begining the more aspects i can from actual rules. So i?ll use country rankings resulting from the actual system for countries (and clubs). This can carry the suposition that, clubs would be doing more or less as good in one way or another, wich can be not true at all... But as i can?t predict games that will never be played this is the only way i can...
So if this is implemented in a year that Milan is out because Palermo "was lucky"/made it, the year after that Milan would probably get directly in ELI while Palermo (if really don?t worth enough) can be depromoted to ELII inverting their positions.
- 22 clubs in EL I for one more season. Next season probably 2 more depromotions to ELII than promotions to ELI and for the 3rd year just 20 clubs. This could be achieved by a kind of transitory UEFA Cup. The idea is to change it to a cup layed only (or almost only) by clubs in the 5 EL?s (top100) like in any country. But in the first years only 22 and 44 clubs are in EL?s. So in this 2 seasons EL?s can have more games entering later in the Cup and playing less games on it, while the clubs still in national leagues can play more games in the Cup, as that are the only international games for them in that seasons and their leagues have less nr of teams. In the 3rd and 4th system the Cup would be played in another system and the leagues (I-III and I-IV) would have just 20 clubs.

(maybe inclusion of Montenegro will make me change something in QR access still)

Author: porto-1978
Date: 13-11-2006, 00:16

So line of water goes up in EL I simulation. Bottom of table:
13. CSKA (1/3)
14. Porto (2/6)
15. Roma (4/12)
16. Olympiakos (4/12)
17. Barcelona (3/15)
18. Anderlecht (1/6)
---------------------
19. AEK (1/12)
20. Celtic (0/3)
21. Steaua (0/9)
22. Bordeaux (0/12)
Note that Celtic and CSKA have just one game and many clubs have 4 and 5... That?s why i order the clubs in order of propotion points/points possible. That can be terible unfair if Celtic loose again with Manchester go to UC doing great and even winning it but always against other teams rather than those in EL, achieving no points in this simulation. Probably i?ll have to get a formula that quantifies levels of success in CL/UC. Then i get a value for each club. That value will count on the exact propotion of the missing games in EL. Imagine Celtic gets 0/6. There will be bissing 40 games for that team. If i consider level of success such as this:
- 9/12 : CL final
- 8/12 : CL semi?s
- 7/12 : CL QF and UC final
- 6/12 : CL R2 and UC semi?s
- 5/12 : UC qf
- 4/12 : UC last 16
- 3/12 : UC last 32
- 2/12 : CL group stage
- 1/12 : UC group stage
This would mean 7 points for Celtic for each 12 possible (in each 4 games missing). In tha example Celtic (zero points in two games played) would get 70 points (in the not played games of the EL).

The propotions are just an example. I have to decide a good way to do it... any help is welcome.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 13-11-2006, 01:06

So for next season (just) a possible scenario is:

EL I: Barcelona, Chelsea, Inter, Lyon, Bayern, Milan, Madrid, Liverpool, Manchester, Valencia, Roma, Porto, PSV, CSKA Moscva, Celtic, Sporting, Werder Bremen, Olympiakos (and from play-off) Arsenal, Ajax, Stuttgart, Lille.

EL II: (play-off loosers) Benfica, Panathinaikos, Sevila, Palermo, (depromoted) Bordeaux, Steaua, AEK, Anderlecht, (from QR3) Udinese, Everton, Deportivo Corunha, Marseille, Schalke, Brugges, Rangers, Spartak Moscva, D. Kiev, Fenerbache, AZ, D. Bucaresti, Levski, Rosenborg.

(or else, from QR3 Genk, Braga, Hearts, Rapid Bucaresti, Torpedo, PAOK, FCK, Liberec, Wisla, Salzburg, Grasshoppers, Cverna Zvezda, D. Zagreb, Maccabi)

Or other clubs, depending on this season national tables...
At second year many good clubs still out, specially champions from medium countries, 2nd/3rd/4th of sub top countries and 5th/6th/... clubs of top countries. Those can try again next season and enter to EL III. We still can have a play-off for top countries champions to enter directly in EL II, but with less places. Instead of 4, just 2 (for countries 1-4) or maximum 3. So, imagine that Newcastle or other club fail to be in top2 of their league this season (excluding Manchester, Chelsea and Liverpool) can still be champion in next season (without those 3, Arsenal and another such as Everton) and win a play-off to let?s say PSG or Leverkusen and enter directly in EL II for 2008/09. Same can be made for Juventus that in this system could be in EL I only in 2009/2010 (probably will be in CL top32 one season before, if that happens Juve will be in EL II top23-44 for that time).

Author: Lupta_Steaua
Date: 13-11-2006, 02:35

porto-1978,

I find your idea for integrating the EL (as a concept) in several stages very interesting, and probably the only feasable one.

However, I believe that the system you are suggesting does not really comply to the idea of developping football. It would be interesting to see the effects of your model on the financial side. It would surely imply greater travel costs for the teams, this is going to reflect on ticket prices and also the TV rights costs.

Comming to TV rights, I really wonder how would the lower league games be shown?

Then, also, as pointed out by someone else, the match fixture would decline, and your suggestion was to create sum E cup, which would get even less importance as it would be the chance for much lower teams to get in Europe. My thought in this regard, would be to increase the number of teams to 25 per league, in case it ever becomes feasable.

And also to keep up the spirit of actually fighting for something (as good teems in Europe are more than 25), I'd suggest a promotion/relegation system of 12 (half of the league), with only the so called "golden middle" getting the go ahead.

Author: Lunaris
Date: 13-11-2006, 17:07

i wonder why you 2 want to have half of the league relegated, in my opinion this isn't a good idea as it stops the build-up of a team

nowadays the mid-table teams, not fighting for anything can build up a team to compete with the bigger teams in some years

if you have half of the teams relegated, it's all teams in a fight, a small group fihting for the title and the rest against relegation

so all the teams just buy their teams and noone is trying to build up a team, in my eyes that stops the league being entertaining, as only the top clubs will fight for the title

i doubt that deportivo could have won the spanish title in such a system

Author: porto-1978
Date: 13-11-2006, 19:56
Edited by: porto-1978
at: 14-11-2006, 03:39

At first my model was very static for the first season of each league. So i changed it so that from 1st to 2nd season EL I change in 4 clubs. Not very much (in 22 clubs). For next seasons about 5 places (in 20 clubs) i think it would be more or less ok. Or 4 with the possibility of a play-off between 5th and the 16th. This way:

League-promoted-maintaining-depromoted
EL I - 0 - 15 - 5
EL II - 5 - 10 - 5
EL III- 5 - 10 - 5
EL IV - 5 - 10 - 5
EL V - 5 - 5 - 10
My idea is something like this so that only last EL have great instability. But it need to have free places for promotion from about 50 national leagues. This way, by the 5th year of implementation, last QR would have 20 winners of national leagues competing for 10 places. (It may also be 9, or 8, but not more than 11, 12...) With 10 could work out this way:
QR1 : champions of countries 31-50;
QR2 : clubs from countries 1-30 and 10 winners of QR1;
QR3 : 20 winners of QR2 for the final play-off for EL5 access

The play-off between 5th and the 16th of consecutive leagues i think is good so that in a league 10, 11 or 12 can maintain and 8, 9 or 10 can change.

I agree with Lunaris and disagree with Lupta_Steaua about the fact that instability in leagues are not very good. Meanwhile i think that can make some sense in the bottom league. But not so radical as remaining just one club in each division.
-------------------------
About finantial aspects i don?t know for sure. I think that it would work out. Traveling by plane is cheap ourdays. I think many stadiums would be full almost every game. In my simulation i think all clubs have more than 30.000 placesin their stadia. Some clubs are not so rich and big as some that are out yet this season. Would create more profit Arsenal instead of AEK or some other. But is too much 4 clubs for country at first year also because then you have to give some 3rd places to sub-top countries and then there?s the risk of 18 clubs of top5 countries (just 4 clubs from other countries). That is too much. But some of the top countries manage to gave 4 clubs next season or even 5 in the season after, ok for me - they played, they won, they deserve.

In my simulation there are:
-3 clubs (considered the top3 of last years) from Spain (about 40M people)
- 3 clubs (all in the top4 of last years) from England (about 50M? - UK have 60)
- 3 clubs (the top clubs there except naturaly Juve) from Italy (about 60M)
- 2 clubs from Germany (90M?) including the major club there and one of the other best
- 2 clubs from France (60M) including the best of last years and one of the other best (in a country with a lot of good clubs)
- 2 clubs from Portugal (10M) including 2 of the top3
- 2 cubs from Greece (10M) including 2 of the top3
- 1 club from the Netherlands (15M?), the best of last years (in the simulation Ajax is out just because they lost in fact in similar conditions, but were seeded)
- 1 club from Russia (100M?), the best of last years
- 1 club from Romania (22M?), traditionally the best
- 1 club from Belgium (10M), traditionally the best or at least one of the best (benficting from being the first unseeded and one seeded being "desqualified")
- 1 club drom Scotland (6M?) representing the Old Firm

So many people would be interested in this league, i think. In terms of profit countries as Portugal or Greece with 2 clubs is not perfect. But this is just the first year it will always change a lot...

Major (population/football) countries missing:
- Turkey (70M?), because in the simulation Galatasaray was not seeded... But they could qualify instead of other club (except Anderlecht unseeded too), for example AEK. In other EL?s some turkish clubs will surely enter...
- Ukraine (60M?), bacause Shakhatar was not seeded. At least them and Dynamo will enter in next years, the champion this season can enter before naturaly.
- Poland (40M) sooner or later at least Wisla should enter in some of the leagues
- Ex-Yugoslavia (total about 20M?), but the best of at least Serbia and Croatia will enter in one or another league
- Scandinavian (total about 18M?) countries, but as FCK proved it would be possible the presence of some club from this countries. Some scandinavian clubs can enter next seasons.
- Switzerland/Austria (total about 18M?), but some clubs from both countries will enter later on.
- Czech Rep. and Slovakia (total 15M?) should have their chance, probably Czech Rep at early stages and with more clubs (but who knows?)
- Bulgaria (10M?) had Levski almost there, maybe they can start in EL II (or other) and other clubs can follow
- Hungary (10M?) seems not to have great chances by now but to achieve EL IV and V will be easier... (and they can improve)
- Israel (5-7M?) have good chances starting just next season and following seasons
- Cyprus, Ireland, Finland, Baltic countries and others also have their chance, always of course, but in my prespective (if some of them don?t improve a lot) all they can achieve is to have in very few seasons one club in EL V running from depromotion.

From the countries represented in "1st edition":
- England, Spain, Italy, France and Germany will have in near future about 6 clubs in EL 1-3 each, sometimes more sometimes less. When they have less in those leagues maybe 4 or more in other leagues, when they are up just 1 or 2 clubs in lower leagues. At some moment winners of their national leagues will have great dificulties in QR3 with teams from other countries less represented (ex: Zaragoza-Partizan, Chievo-Slavia, Birmingham-Trabzonspor etc.) Sometimes emerging teams from these or other countries can pass through consecutive leagues...
- Other countries can have in EL?s some clubs more in near future. But not all of them will always have clubs in top division. In some cases or sometimes the top3 of that countries will be around EL 1-2, in other between EL 2-3, or even lower. But all of them will surely have some other clubs in lower divisions.
------------------------------
Making a prediction of how many clubs of each country fit in the 5 EL?s just to see if there?s room for everyone i consider good clubs if it was now (of course is my subjective prediction)... So, if there was 5 EL?s now (starting some years ago) i would say that if the same type of hierarchy was happening... Nr of teams of each country in all EL?s:
Eng, Spa (10) between 8 and 12
Ita, Fra (9) between 8 and 10
Ger (8) between 7 and 10
Hol (6) between 5 and 7
Por, Gre (5) between 4 and 6
Che, Bel, Tur, Rus (4) between 3 and 5
Ucr, Sco, Rom, Swi, Aus, Isr, Bul (3) between 2 and 4
Ser, Nor, Den (2) between 2 and 3
Pol, Cro, Sue (2) between 1 and 2
Svk, Hun (1) between 0 and 2
other countries (0) between 0 and 1
Hey! It could be something really diferent!
And the total is 113 so there are 13 clubs too much, more or less like including the loosers from QR3.
Counting the minimum i considered for each country there?s 87. More 3 and that?s the number (90) of clubs that remain in EL?s from one season to another.
Considering the maximum numbers of each country in this "prevision" we get the number of 140 more the category of "other countries". If the total of countries is 50 there?s more 23 countries with one club in QR?s. 140 plus 23 equal to 163. The total of clubs in EL?s, recently depromoted from it and in QR?s to get in next EL5 is 150. So, the maximum i predicted per country in their total are not very far away from that number. There?s 13 because there?s countries that dont?have any club that i can predict to enter in EL, even if it?s almost the same. On the other side other countries may put diferent clubs season by season because are more competitive, having diferent champions, some of them moving to EL, some of them falling soon also, but then probably returning...

So:
- 90: clubs in EL(s) at least 2 consecutive seasons = minimum per countries more 3 clubs
- 110: clubs in EL?s and recently depromoted = my central predition less 3 clubs
- 150: clubs in EL?s, depromoted and clubs in QR?s to be promoted = maximum per countries less 13
- 140: total clubs in EL?s at least 1 season in 5 seasons = maximum per countries except those i consider 1 as the maximum
(10 new clubs ascending to EL per year, some returning after - i?m considering 10 reincidences per 5 years, same as saying 1 in each 5 clubs that enter in EL5 do it twice in 5 years time)

Of course from those 23 countries some clubs can enter, in the place of clubs from the other 27 countries. All this predition i made depends on my views and only is useful to see if it?s possible to represent well european clubs from all continent in such a system as EL?s.