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Author: Lupta_Steaua
Date: 03-11-2006, 00:33

As the other topic got archived, and since the battle is still going on, I decided to restart the discussion.

Wraping up this match day, Portugal gained some little ground on Romania, who in turn gained a similar small advantage on Holland. But, let's see what could happen next. It is only my humble predictions, so I wish that no one gets upset because of them.

So, my predictions up to the end of the group phases

6. Portugal

Porto - 2 more coefficient points - finish 3rd in group
Benfica - 2 more coefficient points - finish 3rd in group
Sporting - 2 more coefficient points - finish 3rd in group
Braga - 2 more coefficient points - finish 3rd in group

Overall - 8/6 = 1.333, total = 40.582

7. Romania
Steaua - 2 more coefficient points - finish 3rd in group
Dinamo - 3 more coefficient points - finish 2nd in group
Rapid - 3 more coefficient points - finish 3rd in group

Overall - 8/3 = 2.667, total = 40.497

8. Holland
PSV - 2 more coefficient points - finish 2nd in group
Ajax - 6 more coefficient points - finish 1st in group
AZ - 2 more coefficient points - finish 2nd in group
Feyenord - 4 more coefficient points - finish 2nd in group
Herenveen - 0 points - out

Overall - 14/7 = 2.000, total = 37.951

In case this actually happens, We could have some decisive games in the last 16:

Rapid/Braga - Ajax

Steaua/Porto/Benfica/Sporting - Dinamo/AZ/Feyenord

P.S. I should have probably included Germany here as well (considering Hamburg's performance), but I though about it too late, so I'll include them after the next match day

Cheers!

Author: Overgame
Date: 03-11-2006, 00:59

Dinamo : 3 more coefficient points : 1win 1draw 1loss, win versus Leverkusen (why not), draw in Brugge (ok) and loss in Tottenham (ok). Seems ok and probable.

Rapid : 3 more coefficient points : 1win 1draw : win versus Bleslav (ok) and draw in Pana (hmmm). 1 point to much for me, and 2 coefficient points could be not enough for the 3rd place.

Steaua : 2 more coefficient points : ok, and the 3rd place : ok.

Porto : 2 more points, seems ok, but win versus Arsenal or Moscow, or 2 draws ? Everything could happen in that group.

Benfica : 2 more points (win versus København and loss versus Manchester) : seems ok, but with 7 points they could be 2nd (if Celtic don't win versus København).

Sporting : 2 more points (versus Moscow) and loss versus Inter, or 2 draws. The 3rd place is probable.

Braga : 2 more points (versus Grasshopers ?). Bah, let's say ok.

Ajax : 6 more points : ending with 12 points is almost impossible, 10 is probably a better prediction. 1 point too much.

PSV : 2 more points, well i'd say that too, even if i'm not sure, they are already qualified.

AZ : 2 more points and 2nd of the group : Sevilla ending with 10 points ? Well, not impossible, but we'll see.

The predictions are accurate, but that's hard to predict so much games now.

Author: Lupta_Steaua
Date: 03-11-2006, 01:10

Overgame,

I agree with your comments, and especially with the part that anything can happen. That was my best bet, but of course, we have to wait for the actual games.

And I wonder if anyone would have ventured to predict Kobenhavn-MU, Herenveen-OB, Zulte's last results. What I said was based on the lets call it "expected" results. The important thing is that the battle is still pretty much on, so the thrill is still there

Author: badgerboy
Date: 03-11-2006, 01:15

Things suddenly seem very unpredictable right now.

It's too late for me to give much thought to the subject now but I will make one small comment:

"Rapid : 3 more coefficient points : 1win 1draw : win versus Bleslav (ok) and draw in Pana (hmmm). 1 point to much for me, and 2 coefficient points could be not enough for the 3rd place".

For me on the last two matchdays especially it will be very important to factor in the importance of a match to the teams involved. A draw for example is enough for Panathinaikos to qualify and if Rapid & PSG both win their next matches a point is almost certainly good enough for Rapid too....

Author: Ricardo
Date: 03-11-2006, 08:38

I don't know if that's what you are trying to say, but it is very important if a team is already qualified for next round or not. Last years teams that qualified often let the match go.(Dinamo can profit from that agasint Tottenham?)

Germany:
Munchen: 2 points and 1st in group
Bremen: 1 point and 3rd in group (I can't imagine Barca being out)
HSV: 0 points and 4th (the opponents need every point(I also can't imagine Arsenal being out - woulcn't that be 'fun': bith finalist out after GS?))
Leverkusen: 4 points 2nd in group
Frankfurt: 2 points 4th in group

after groupstage: 41.077

Author: Maluyaca
Date: 03-11-2006, 09:16
Edited by: Maluyaca
at: 03-11-2006, 09:19

Maybe it is easier in these topics if you open them to put the rankings. So the current rankings are.

5 Germany 9.142 4.714 10.571 10.437 4.928 39.792 5/ 7
6 Portugal 10.750 10.250 8.166 5.500 4.583 39.249 4/ 6
7 Romania 2.166 4.333 5.500 16.833 9.000 37.832 3/ 3
8 Netherlands 6.166 5.416 12.000 7.583 4.785 35.950 5/ 7

I think it will be an battle between Germany, Portugal and Romania. Netherlands are to far away, they need 12 wins more if Portugal don't score any point. I think they will come closer but not enough to challenge them.

Next year Romania will probably be a force to be recogn with for place 6 and I think they almost assured that place already.

Romania keeps the pressure on Portugal and it will be probably decided next year. I'm still going for Portugal, From the Romanian teams I only saw play Steaua. Next matchday I will see Dinamo play for the first time.

Author: Todor
Date: 03-11-2006, 09:43

For me Germany are now outsiders in this battle. After the GS's we might end up with the following situation:

Germany 1 team in CL + 2 in UEFA

Portugal 4 in UEFA

Romania 3 in UEFA

I don't think Leverkuzen and Werder can compete against Porto , Benfica and Sporting in UEFA, even more so the Portugal points weigh 16 percent more. Bayern can't add too many in the later stages of the CL.
Romania need just 6 more points to get them , which shouldn't be a problem if their trio keep with the good form.
Germany would desperately need one Romanian club to drop out in the groups, and Porto to qualify for the CL last 16.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Ricardo Date: 03-11-2006, 12:38	It would be the biggest surprise of them all, but indeed very possible for Germany to drop out of the top-6. I wonder how many people in Germany know that...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Philipp Date: 03-11-2006, 12:42	well, i am even not sure if Leverkusen will finish under the first 3 in the GS. they dont play good at the Bundesliga and have difficult opponents. Tottenham (h), Dinamo (a), Besiktas (h). maybe we see a final between Leverkusen and Besiktas.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Maluyaca Date: 03-11-2006, 12:44	@Ricardo Maybe you're right but the difference between 6 or 7 is 1 team in CL less. How many teams in Germany are battling for position 3 in Germany.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Ricardo Date: 03-11-2006, 12:52	I meant to say how many people will realise that this battle is currently going on. As soon as Uefa publishes the ranking (june next year or so?) there will then be a 'shockwave' through Germany as how is it possible that this happened. But how many people would follow it now and see that if Leverkusen and Frankfurt drop out of Uefa Germany will almost sure lose their 3rd CL-spot...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: saibot Date: 03-11-2006, 12:55	Well, I'm German and I'm 100% aware of the situation that you describe here. But (as I already stated in another topic) I think that it would be well deserved if Germany drops out of the Top-6.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: larmen Date: 03-11-2006, 13:34	@ Todor You can't see Werder Bremen doing well in the UEFA cup, but you can see the Romanian teams do well?

Author: spenk
Date: 03-11-2006, 13:40

Germany could be paying for their dramatic 03/04 season, in which they only scored 4.7 coeff points. until now they have been able to compensate that with other seasons, at that time it only costed them their 4th spot. Normally an average of 8,5 points per year (total 42,5) is enough for the 6th spot, but they have to compensate that weak season every year with about 10 points per year. At the moment it looks like they are going to fail that objective, and if they don't watch out, they will add another dramatic season that will be a burden for the next five years.

Author: Meatball
Date: 03-11-2006, 13:47
Edited by: Meatball
at: 03-11-2006, 13:49

I completely agree with Saibot. Germany needs a wake-up call. In the last years everyone here was focused on the Worldcup and how everything had to be done in favour of the national team. Over these efforts they seem to have totally forgotten the Bundesliga. Domestically everything is going very well of course with new spectator records every season.
The awareness of coefficients and the close battle is almost close to zero. The kicker magazine from time to time mentions that Germany is a bit in danger, but of course not giving it a headline. Yesterday during the game between Heerenveen and Odense on DSF I heard for the first time a tv reporter mentioning how dangerous especially the Romanians have become for the German ranking. But during this game probably only some "freaks" that are interested in coefficients were watching anyway...
My current expectations this season:
München are already qualified, means probably they won't take the last games serious anymore, especially since they have some trouble in the league, therefore dropping valuable points. With a good draw they should proceed to quarterfinals, but I can't see them go further.
Bremen is currently the strongest team. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Chelsea at home (maybe Mourinho helps a bit) and proceed to next round, but I think for Germany it would be much better if they drop down to UEFA Cup and pick up some more points there.
Hamburg is a complete desaster. The problem is that they built up a team of mercenaries without team spirit. They won't get a point against Arsenal or Moscow.
Frankfurt is the only positive surprise, they already picked up more points than expected. The draw against Vigo was most welcome. At home they can get one more point I think, but probably they are out.
As a Leverkusen fan I can't be objective on the last team of course, problem is you never know how they are going to play. They have the capability of beating ANY team on a good day but they also can loose against the worst teams you can imagine. I hope for two draws and one win against Besiktas. But they could easily be eliminated as well. Actually I think Leverkusen will be the crucial team for Germany this season, if they are doing well Germany might stay in top6, otherwise going down seems very possible.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: lazio Date: 03-11-2006, 14:32 Edited by: lazio at: 03-11-2006, 14:33	larmen Last year the weekest team from the Romanian trio has left out two of the german teams: Hamburg and Hertha. I'm not saying that the romanian teams are the best, because they aren't, but let's not be so surprised how come Werder is put on the same level with some romanian teams. Well, that's the level of Werder! I hope some future fixtures will say that!

Author: badgerboy
Date: 03-11-2006, 14:35
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 03-11-2006, 14:45

Meatball wrote:

"They have the capability of beating ANY team on a good day but they also can loose against the worst teams you can imagine".

Funny I get the feeling this statement is true about maybe 75% of teams in the UEFA Cup. Certainly 75% of those likely to figure in the knockout rounds.

That's what makes the darned thing so unpredictable. Thank goodness for that I guess!

Lazio - I really don't think that you can put Werder - who are challenging for qualification in a group with Chelsea & Barca & were extemely unlucky to lose to Juve last year - on the same level with Hamburg, who have zero CL points in an easier group and are struggling in the Bundesliga.

Author: Todor
Date: 03-11-2006, 18:59
Edited by: Todor
at: 03-11-2006, 19:02

@larmen

I think you've misunderstood me. I don't doubt Werder will perform well in UC , but I think the Portuguese big-three will out-score the German teams left.
About Romania , each point they score is divided by 3 ,whilst the German ones by 7,so Levercuzen and Werder should score two times more than the three Romanian sides . That's the biggest advantage for Romania , not that Dinamo and Rapid are stronger than Werder.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: dinamo_fan_4_ever Date: 03-11-2006, 21:16	i will try something pot A ajax psv bayern werder porto sporting benfica cska pot B steaua rapid dinamo braga leverkussen hamburg schalke az feyenoord spartak pot c eintracht nacional herenveen gronigen hertha lokomotiv

Author: saibot
Date: 04-11-2006, 10:49

@ meatball

What really pisses me off is, that teams like Hertha & Schalke already talk about how important and crucial it is to qualify for next years CL/UEFA-Cup. I think that this is the mentality that puts us behind: They don't participate at CL/UEFA-Cup in order to win it, but to earn some money they need in order to finance their expensive players.
There is an huge gap between the international performances of hungry teams whose players sometimes really seem to play "for their lifes" and the lacklustre performances shown for example from Hertha: When I see them play so called "unattractive" opponents, I always get the impression as if it were an unreasonable demand to ask them to play with some effort.
You should watch those german underachievers in Bundesliga when they host Bayern Munich: Then they run their asses off and challenge every ball in sight...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: doctor Date: 04-11-2006, 11:18	Very good point ,mayybe that`s why some teams lose inexplicable in thse cups. Did u guys know that Real-Steaua first half was played by 11 romanians. No foreigner was in Steaua team in first half,first stranger that entered Thereau in min 75. Is there any team that plays only with home players like Staeua in CL?

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Meatball Date: 04-11-2006, 11:48	Completely true Saibot! Every season, these clubs tell us that qualification for the international competitions is their ultimate goal, but when they achieve it, they show absolutely nothing. Only the "weak" cup runner-ups like Aachen or this season Frankfurt are still showing the fighting spirit, that once made so many German teams superior to their opponents.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: antonio62tr Date: 04-11-2006, 13:10	Fenerbahce played 11 Turkish against B36 Torshavn CL QR

Author: badgerboy
Date: 04-11-2006, 14:17

Saibot wrote:

"What really pisses me off is, that teams like Hertha & Schalke already talk about how important and crucial it is to qualify for next years CL/UEFA-Cup. I think that this is the mentality that puts us behind: They don't participate at CL/UEFA-Cup in order to win it, but to earn some money they need in order to finance their expensive players".

I can't speak for the attitude of German clubs but in England I feel the attitude to the two competitions is very different.

Yes the CL is partly about money - but for any club that gets there it's also as important to go as far as possible. Maybe that's also because the same clubs tend to qualify every year and the risk of them missing out on the following year's money seems minimal? Maybe it would be interesting to ask Arsene Wenger if he would swap this year's CL spot for last year's trophy?

But for the UEFA Cup I think the same paradox exists in England as in Germany. The majority of English league clubs start the season with the objective of either "staying in the division" or "getting into Europe". The objective for individual clubs can change through the season. Portsmouth probably started out with the first one but are now maybe thinking of the second - West Ham the reverse etc.

But more often than not once they are in Europe the extra games are seen as an inconvenience to whichever is their main domestic objective. You can almost guarantee that one of the three English clubs when eliminated in the last 32 or last 16 of this year's competition will be "disappointed of course - but in a way it's a relief because we can concentrate on improving our league position". Three months later that same club will be "looking forward to another season in Europe" or "disappointed..." etc. etc. - just so they can do the whole thing again next year!

Author: saffrhaps
Date: 04-11-2006, 17:10

Maybe it's just that you can start off in a league which has a 'big 4' saying 'we aim to be 5th' which is a defined place in the league table, but you can't really say at the start of the season 'we aim to win the cup (FA cup or UEFA cup).' If you get a good run, then you can start to talk about it and the fans get excited too, but when there are still 40 teams in, it's too wishy-washy or far away an idea.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: larare Date: 06-11-2006, 10:49	Gabriele Marcotti has an article on this subject in todays Times.

Author: Maluyaca
Date: 24-11-2006, 00:50

Standings after 3rd matchday UEFA / 5th matchday CL

5 Germany 9.142 4.714 10.571 10.437 5.357 40.221 5/ 7
6 Portugal 10.750 10.250 8.166 5.500 5.250 39.916 4/ 6
7 Romania 2.166 4.333 5.500 16.833 10.000 38.832 3/ 3
8 Netherlands 6.166 5.416 12.000 7.583 5.071 36.236 5/ 7

Romania is coming closer and still have the advantage of having all teams in there but for how long.

Next week we probably know how many Romanian teams will survive UEFA. For the moment still going for Germany and Portugal but Romania is performing well for now.

Author: daggy
Date: 24-11-2006, 01:03
Edited by: daggy
at: 24-11-2006, 01:04

Portugal is most probably going to overtake Germany and get 5th spot. We have 2 teams already through the groupstages, Sporting only needs to draw to go for the last 32 of Uefa Cup, Braga also has very good chances of going through too.

But Germany... Hamburg and Frankfurt are hopeless (Frankfurt still has a very small chance), and Leverkusen is hard to tell.

Romania: Dinamo and Steaua are through, but Rapid wont probably.

For the knockout rounds:
3/7 Germany
4/6 Portugal
2/3 Romania

Germany is going down to 6th or maybe even 7th, if Romanian teams can get some more points.

Author: Overgame
Date: 24-11-2006, 01:41

Right now, Germany's case is quite impossible to predict.

Munchen is qualified for the CLR2, Probably 1st (they need a draw at home versus Inter), but the draw will be important (they are good teams 2nd of their group). Don't forget the bonus point.

Bremen will play for the 2nd place in Barcelona, but they are sure to end at least 3rd and continue in UC.

If Leverkusen can win in Romania, they are almost qualified. With a draw, they could do it if Brugge doesn't win 0-2 in Turkey. With a loss, they'd need a draw of a loss of Brugge in Turkey. If they qualify, they will be 2nd (with 2 victories) or 3rd (with a victory and a draw). They will probably ends 3rd if they qualify.

Frankfurt is almost out : playing Newcastle now is not a gift, and away in Turkey is not better.

Hamburg is hopeless, and they will perhaps end with 0 point.

For Romania :

Dinamo's case is almost the same than Leverkusen's case : if they win versus Leverkusen, they are (not almost :p) qualified. A draw is enough if Brugge doesn't win 0-2 in turkey. A defeat could be the end of their european season. In Tottenham, i don't see a team from England loses at home, even if they are qualified. They will probably ends 2nd of the group if they qualify.

Rapid is almost out, but not far from the qualification too :p A defeat in Greece would be the end (or not, with a miracle, 2 wins for Pana only draws till the end for the others games). A draw is almost the same than a defeat, and a victory would give them a qualification.

Steaua is 3rd of their group, we'll see in UC.

Portugal :

Porto will probably ends 2nd of their group and get a bonus point, playing the CLR2. We'll see after the draw.

Sporting is not sure to be 3rd, but they just need a draw at home versus Moscow.

Benfica will probably be 3rd, and perhaps 2nd (or even 1st :p) of their group, and play the UC.

Braga's case is not sure : a win against Zurich could not be enough to be qualified if Liberec wins in Alkmaar. Small probability, but still. A draw will be enough if Liberec loses (both have an average of 4-5, if Liberec loses, they will be at least at -2 and Braga at -1). If they qualify, they should end 3rd.

After the GS, we will probably end with :
(1st pot CL=1st of the group in CL, 2nd pot CL=2nd of the group in CL, 1st pot UC=1st of the group in UC, 2nd pit UC=2nd of the group in UC, 3rd pot UC=3rd of the group in CL and 4th pot UC=3rd of the group UC).

Germany : 3/7 : Munchen 1st pot in CL, Bremen 3rd pot UC and Leverkusen 4th pot UC.

Romania : 2/3 : Dinamo 2nd pot UC and Steaua 3rd pot UC.

Portugal : 4/6 : Porto 2nd pot CL, Benfica 3rd pot UC, Sporting 3rd pot UC and Braga 4th pot UC.

We could see : Dinamo versus : Bremen, Steaua (possible ?), Benfica or Sporting :p If we get that kind of draw, one country could be out soon.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: lazio Date: 24-11-2006, 07:36	overgame good and objective comments...and I'm glad (and surprised I must admit) that your comments can be other than malicious...like they've been before in several occasions. Congrats!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: dragos_popa17 Date: 24-11-2006, 08:44 Edited by: dragos_popa17 at: 24-11-2006, 08:44	As far as I know, teams from the same country can play eachoter in the last 32 of the UC. But we could see games between German, Portugease and Romanian teams, and that would probably setle it.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: gabriel1 Date: 24-11-2006, 09:33 Edited by: gabriel1 at: 24-11-2006, 09:35	If Romania,unfortunely, dont get the 6th place this year...then next year ,is clear, Romania will get for sure(with no doubt) the 6th place in the country ranking...so Rumme is hopeless Country ranking 2008 5 Romania 4.333 5.500 16.833 10.000 0.000 36.666 4teams 6 Russia 5.875 10.000 10.000 5.625 0.000 31.500 4teams 7 Germany 4.714 10.571 10.437 5.357 0.000 31.079 6teams

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Maluyaca Date: 24-11-2006, 13:27	On topic please This topics go about the country ranking in 2007. If you want to discuss 2008 open a new one with a correct title.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 25-11-2006, 15:07

"Standings after 3rd matchday UEFA / 5th matchday CL

5 Germany 9.142 4.714 10.571 10.437 5.357 40.221 5/ 7
6 Portugal 10.750 10.250 8.166 5.500 5.250 39.916 4/ 6
7 Romania 2.166 4.333 5.500 16.833 10.000 38.832 3/ 3
8 Netherlands 6.166 5.416 12.000 7.583 5.071 36.236 5/ 7"

Until the end of the group stages the following are the maximum points achievable:

Germany 14/7 = 2.000 coefficient
Portugal 8/6 = 1.333
Romania 8/3 = 2.666
Netherlands 16/7 = 2.285

Possible coefficient range is therefore:

Germany 42.221-40.221
Romania 41.498-38.832
Portugal 41.249-39.916
Netherlands 38.521-36.236

Romania could theoretically pass Portugal but must score 4 pts out of the maximum possible 8, plus another 1 pt for every 2 scored by Portugal. Portugal also have 8 pts. available to them.

To pass Germany, Romania must score 5 points even if Germany fail to add to their current total. Germany have 14 pts to play for themselves though would need to score 9 of these in the unlikely event that Romania gets their 8 pts.

Portugal need only 2 pts to close the gap on Germany but given 6/8 is their highest likely score Germany only need 4 pts. to stay ahead of them.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 25-11-2006, 15:30
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 25-11-2006, 15:34

My tentative "subjective" prediction for the situation going into the winter break would now be:

Germany 41.363 (8/14 pts achieved)
Portugal 40.749 (5/8 pts achieved)
Romania 39.948 (2/8 pts achieved)
Netherlands 37.807 (11/16 pts achieved)

Germany will probably have 3 teams left in Europe (1 CL, 2 UEFA) but this could be better (Frankfurt aren't out yet) or of course worse (Leverkusen). Although Leverkusen aren't necessarily out if they lose in Bucharest that's a real "coefficient" battle. I wonder if Karl-Heinz will be on the 'phone to club officials pointing out the potential importance of a win!

Portugal are likely to have 4 teams left (1 CL, 3 UEFA).

Romania could still have between 1 & 3 teams left but 2 seems likely at the moment.

Netherlands will almost certainly have 4 teams left (1 CL, 3 UEFA). AZ & Ajax are virtually qualified - Feyenoord should pass with a win against Wisla - Heerenveen need a win & a lot of favours elsewhere.

There's still an awful lot to play for in the spring. Yes, maximum points for two Romanian teams in the last 32 of the UEFA Cup might see an extra coefficient of 2.666 but they might equally go out with Portugal scoring 2.000 or so of their own (including Porto in the CL). Two of these Portuguese teams have potential to reach the latter stages of the UEFA Cup as do all three likely Dutch qualifiers.

Still fascinating - still almost impossible to predict with any (unbiased) confidence.

Author: moro
Date: 25-11-2006, 16:13

I'm wondering if there's one bonus point for teams qualifying from CLGS, maybe I'm wrong but I have the impression that UEFA gave those points last year.
I'm in deep depression because of Rapid's performance, I thought that was Romanian best team this year in Uefa, but still hoping. But I'm scared about teams to meet in 1/32 for Dinamo from 2-nd or 3-rd place, and for Steaua (maybe less). So I predict Romania will have only Steaua in 1/16, and no wat to pass behind Portugal. Hope I'll be wrong. Maybe Germany reachable if Dinamo beat Bayer (if Bayer go down), if Frankfurt go down, and Munchen plays against Real or Barça or Man UTD.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: gabriel1 Date: 25-11-2006, 22:48	@badgerboy if dinamo bucuresti will beat bayer leverkusen next week... then the things are clear...Romania will pass over Germany at the end of season...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Overgame Date: 26-11-2006, 01:46	Why ? Let's imagine this. Dinamo beats Leverkusen, Leverkusen beats Besiktas and Besiktas doesn't lose against Brugge. Leverkusen is qualified. And even if Leverkusen is qualified, the 2 romanian teams could be out after last32 (a very bad draw could ruin their chance). If Leverkusen is out, there are giood chances to see Romania over Germany, but not 'sure'.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 26-11-2006, 09:22	Somebody can confirm if there's bonus point for teams qualifying from group stage in Champions League?

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: spenk Date: 26-11-2006, 12:12	This is at the opening page of this website...: "As of the 2004/05 season teams qualifying for the first knock-out round of the Champions League will be awarded with an extra bonus point."

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 26-11-2006, 13:27	So Germany and Portugal can make more points, probably 1 point bonus each.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 26-11-2006, 13:35

"So Germany and Portugal can make more points, probably 1 point bonus each".

Yes, that's correct. On my own "prediction stats" I've chosen to ignore the bonus points for now - treating them as part of the "spring" programme. I'm pretty sure other people making any "winter break" predictions have done the same.

I assume though that Bert will add in the bonus points for reaching the last 16 into his up to date ranking as soon as the CL group stage is complete.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 26-11-2006, 13:42	Strange decision from Uefa, there will be portuguese refferee at Dinamo-Leverkusen, regerding country ranking I'm not sure this is wise, because any human error will be interpretated, you know.... Considering that Dinamo victory get against Portugal 0.666 points, a draw a total of 0.476, and Levkusen victory only 0.286 points, if the refferree is a patriot, I know what bet I should put.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Giuseppe Date: 26-11-2006, 14:09	I really don't believe the reff knows anything about coefficients...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 26-11-2006, 17:35	I'm watching Man Utd vs Chelsea, incredible spectacle. I dont see Benfica winning, unless diarrhea hit Manchester.

Author: marea
Date: 26-11-2006, 20:37

"Strange decision from Uefa, there will be portuguese refferee at Dinamo-Leverkusen, regerding country ranking I'm not sure this is wise, because any human error will be interpretated, you know.... Considering that Dinamo victory get against Portugal 0.666 points, a draw a total of 0.476, and Levkusen victory only 0.286 points, if the refferree is a patriot, I know what bet I should put."

Please... no-one cares as much about coefficients as people in this forum do - and that's the reason why I enjoy reading it, mind.

Claims such as this, along with the one which implied Portugal not having an IT team was part of a deliberate pro-coeff agenda, are completely ridiculous. I believe there must have been an incredible deal of publicity in the local media about the sharp climb Romania had (and justifiably so, it's indeed a quite extraordinary event), but it just didn't happen so over the other countries. From my experience, even in i-net forums, people all over europe couldn't care less about this except when their country loses a few european spots. Not even the speciallized media reffers to the UEFA coefficient more than, say, twice or trice a year.

As I haven't posted on this subject yet, and being a Portuguese long time reader of the forum, I guess recent discussions leave me no chance but to clear my position on this: it's almost sure Romania will reach at least 6th spot under current form next year, as Portugal will lose it's Porto/Boavista success years soon while Romania will leave its worst years behind. My feeling is that it will all depend on the UEFA last-32 draw teams from each country get, though.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 26-11-2006, 22:04

Everything can happen, of course. This season Germany Portugal and Romania (or even Netherlands and Russia) can finish in 5-6 spots. Next season still depends on the rest of this. The 10 pts record of Roania can grow not so much on spring and so some countries can double their coeficient for this season during the knock out stages. Then next year will not start as it seems from the present day. So for Romania, not being just this year, it will be not so easy next year (with a 4th club and less qr?s) to be 6th.
About the last 32 of UC, well that?s fundamental. Some countries can loose one or other club in the group stages. If the survivals end up loosing in the~Last 32 round it?s Waterloo for them.

As portuguese i have to confess that there?s two decisive games for Portugal in two weeks time. One is Braga - Grasshoppers, the other Sporting - Spartak. Sporting must not sleep as sometimes they do, i want a strong victory to show confidence and that they want to do good in UC as they showed 2 years ago. On the other side Braga winning to Grasshoppers would be great. Not only because so they progress but also because, even if they don?t progress more than that, they already put themselves in the probable seeded clubs for next season UC R1. Hope Boavista will be there too (but they are mediocre by now and Pacheco seems not to finish there the season as they are getting very down in the league...)

Author: 5UCLGSteams
Date: 26-11-2006, 22:18

Actually i think this is a very "sensible" and also interesting subject to follow. No one says the portuguese referee has been certainly very carefully chosen for this game but i would not personally be very surprised if a portuguese official would explain what a good strategy they chose when decided not to allow any team to go to intertoto this season. I mean you always do not have enough arguments for or against this kind of supposition but at the same time i wish i knew for real how much goes one way and how much goes the other way, i mean politics.
Like in Moggi case. Any James Bond or undercover guy following us?

Author: porto-1978
Date: 26-11-2006, 22:38

5CLGSTeams, you make no sense at all with that IT thing. And about the referee too. Between Dinamo and Leverkusen there?s 2 points to gain. Both countries are next to Portugal in the ranking so how can the referee make to both clubs get 0 (zero) points?!? What a weird thing to think the referees do maths calculations that not even most of the clubs dirigents and coaches and players and supporters do!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: gabriel1 Date: 27-11-2006, 12:05	we must wait and see the Por ref ... i dont want to think that brugge president is involved or Voehler from Bayer ...

Author: moro
Date: 27-11-2006, 14:03

Porto, it's true that there's 2 points to win, but if Romania takes those points it's 0.666 coef, if Levkusen wins it's only 0.286. Biiig difference.
And dont tell me refs dont know a thing about coefs.
On the other hand I'm not searching excuses for Dinamo's eventual lost, just saying that this is not very smart decision from UEFA. Once again, let's say the ref can make an human error giving penalty in last minute for germans, it would create a monstruos scandal here. Yes, we romanians are very suspicious, maybe raising with "Securitate" did that to us, maybe refferes helping western countries before 1985 +++++, etc. We should cure this disease within years, but now we're still under medication...
Romanains sport-papers and us, people, can't stop beeing surprised when the refs are doing correct job, and when a ref is too good with us (for ex Steaua-Kiev) it's like UFO coming on earth.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: dragos_popa17 Date: 27-11-2006, 14:08	oh come on, steaua just got a big help from the ref against kiev and now we're thinking Uefa's out to get us?

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Overgame Date: 27-11-2006, 14:15	Oh, and Brugge is hoping for a win of Dinamo (win for dinamo+win for Brugge = Brugge qualified). Even a draw of Brugge could be enough, if Leverkusen-Besiktas is a draw. Frankly, i'm tired to hear 'the big conspiracy theory'. If UEFA wanted to 'kill' Romania, they could have done it easily without any scandal (Steaua-Kiev, Dinamo-Besiktas are good examples).

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: OMfan Date: 27-11-2006, 14:28	I really don't think the referee know what are the issues about coefficient and ranking.There's not many people who are interested in coeff in France, Spain, Italy or UK. I Guess french people know that uefa indice exist but they believe that it's not very interesting and they probably think that France will always qualify 3 teams in CL not more not less.

Author: izztupido
Date: 27-11-2006, 15:53

"Strange decision from Uefa, there will be portuguese refferee at Dinamo-Leverkusen"

Im Portuguese, don?t know witch is the referee, but dont worry. It will be a bad one, as they all are in here... :P

And by the way, do you really think that referees care about this calculations? Get a life!

I like to watch this calculations over the year, but i dont live for them. I think, that my country will always be in some ups and dows, because apart form the "Big Three", the other teams usually perform bad in Europe. So when we have few sports in UEFA (4 for instance), we get some huge points (probably what is happening with Romania). When we have more teams (like 6 this year and the next one) we allways struggle to stay at that level. This year, Setúbal and Nacional, just gave Portugal 1 point. Thats near to nothing. Last year, Sporting, Braga, Nacional and Setúbal, all 4, gave us 4 or 5 points. And Porto (fortunatly for me, because i always want them to lose all their games), also made a poor campaign.

A Portuguese referee will take part of a German side, based on UEFA coefficient?! Thats ridiculous. He will have so many things to think, like for instance: "What am i doing here? What is a yellow card? How many euros costs a prostitute in here? In witch country am i?"

Believe me. Portuguese referee are so bad, that they can do all kind of silly mistakes, and you will find one that suits that Conspiracy Theory. It will not be hard at all. And the same could do your opponent.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 27-11-2006, 16:42

"How many euros costs a prostitute in here?"
Funny you should mention this subject in connection with Romanian concerns about biased referees.

A story from Jonathan Wilson's "Behind the Curtain" (paperback's out now so I've splashed out) that had me chuckling involves attempts by Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt club Chairman Gheorghe Stefan to bribe a French referee with "free favours" prior to an IT Cup game (v Austria Vienna in 2000).

After Moulin (the referee) reported the incident Stefan apparently claimed: "he got the wrong end of the stick...the four women who approached him were merely folk singers". An easy mistake to make I guess! Better still - "In the last two years we have hosted teams like Juventus (a draw - Ceahlaul lost on aggregate) and Mallorca (won & Ceahlaul progressed on aggregate) and the referees have been pleased by what they have seen". No mention of who these referees were though (so no opportunity to ask them what pleased them the most about their visit

.

Slightly alarming perhaps (if wikipedia is accurate) is that as well as still being Chairman of the football club (after serving a year's ban from UEFA) Gheorghe Stefan is also apparently mayor of Piatra Neamt.

Author: moro
Date: 27-11-2006, 19:30

In fact in such situation the prostitute is "on the house".
Stop telling me that refs dont know nothing about coefs. They're working in soccer.
The one who complains on every topic that he had enough of this conspiracy theory, should remember that it's easier to read this than living and beeing afraid of that theory.
Once again, I didnt say it's gonna be arranged, just that this decision doesnt look smartie for me. It's just me. You say refs surely dont worry anout coefs, who knows, maybe there's one in Portugal who had wall-papers everywhere in his bedroom with coef rankings, and maybe that one will be in Bucarest wednesday. Can anybody proove it's not like that?
Refs talks to federals in their country, because those peoples give them bread to eat. And those feds has decided not to sent an extra-team in Intertoto because risk of spoiling country coef. So yes, oh yes peoples in smokings are interrested in coefs.

Author: izztupido
Date: 27-11-2006, 19:52

Dont send a team to Intertoto because of what?

For me, and for everybody here, Intertoto its a cup with interess near to absolut zero. It only costs money, and has no revenue. In summer people want to go to the beach instead of going to see football. I full agrre to never send a team to Intertoto. Whats the interess. Players dont have vacations? For me, its a silly cup. But who wants to enter it, go ahead. If our 5th and 6th team do, what they do, what could do a 7th team? Even worst, i presume, So, independent of rankings and coeficients, i support 500% that decision (if it was taken on that basis). Who cares about Intertoto anyway? When, i think was U.Leiria played that cup, i dont even remember what were the results. And mind that i have a huge memory of football results. Who cares about Intertoto Cup? I dont know nobody, honestly.

And those suspictions, like in other things in life have to be proven, by the one who claims them, not by the one who is offended.

But dont put the IQ of Portuguese Referees that high. Do they know what a wall is? And a graph? Dont seems so, honestly. If a team has to win some game, has to play for it, and in the majority of the cases, they have a better chance to do it. The only exception is when a Portugueses referee is in the middle, but in that case, they are so "good" that anybody can win it

Author: moro
Date: 27-11-2006, 20:33

Well, Portugal didnt sent a team in Intertoto because they would'nt harm the coef, it's obvious, except for blind people.
And if you're not interested by Intertoto Cup, does'nt mean nobody is. For example in France, where's allways very tight from 4-8 place, teams are interested by Intertoto. OM did very well two times coming from Intertoto, this year too, they were very upset because loosing that thriller in Boleslav.
I'm sure if somebody would create another Cup o get another spot in Uefa, there would be lots of teams interested.
This decision of uefa is stupid, if you say the ref is bad anyway, than Uefa is even more guilty. I just hope Dinamo will have a great day and put 3 goals in 20 minutes.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: vlad-tzepesh Date: 27-11-2006, 20:33	@ badgerboy The story with the folk singers is true and it is hugely popular in Romania. Stefan is indeed mayor of Piatra Neamt and the president of PNL Neamt, a major political party in Romania. However, as mayor he is no longer president of the club, just honorary chairman or something like that.

Author: daggy
Date: 27-11-2006, 20:47

Moro, you really dont know what youre talking about. Most clubs in Portugal are poor except the "big 3" and a few more. If any club goes to Intertoto cup they will lose money for sure and have little chance of going to Uefa Cup.
U.Leiria tried intertoto twice and lost both times, and lost money. Leiria isnt a rich club, they cant afford to lose money every season just to get 1 Uefa spot every 10 years or so.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 27-11-2006, 20:52	not true. This year Intertoto for Portugal was one home-away , that's it, then Uefa. So it's not expensive at all, only one flight.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 27-11-2006, 22:37

moro you show not to know what is true or not and you only saw in one side; daggy pointed the reasons for all time history portuguese absence in IT (except Leiria, i admire them for that); now if you don?t want to understand, moro, it?s your ptoblem; just be sure that you show up ridiculous with those comments - too much mouth and to less ears and at least none intention in thinking about things you talk

Find the lie of the last moro?s post....
Yes, a portuguese club in IT would have to play 1 round to achieve not UC but UCQR3, only then it?s UC. So 4 games to play to reach the UC, two away games.

I really hope a portuguese club go in IT next year, specially Boavista if misses qualification for UC, as is the last year they could be seeded. But i?m not sure if some will be interested. But still here i point why any portuguese club should be interested in IT - hope some club dirigent read this, but i?m almost sure they don?t came to this site even.

1- Years ago Leiria made 6 games and still could not reach UC; but worse can happen now is to play 4 games (it doesn?t matter saying in last 2 of this games points would count half for ranking, as it?s chinese for who i?d like would read this)

2- There?s much more chances for a portuguese club (any) to be in UC by IT since this season to the future. By now, a portuguese club would be seeded until UC R1... (Boavista could be seeded in this stage too)

3- A portuguese club in IT now don?t have to start so early than before, so why not to try? Good way to start the official season and doing so they can start the league in better form than most other clubs...

4- UC don?t give milions but a club can make some money from it too (depending on how far goes) and can give experience to the team that can be much more competitive afterwards.

5- Relegation in Portugal is not decided in September, so portuguese general clubs, don?t be so affraid of relegation when the season still not started! A club can disperse some energy in UC but still gain from a spirit of more competivity carry to national league in higher levels of confifence.

About quofficients, no one knows if it?s good or bad for ranking before it happens... If Boavista in last two seasons played IT and was succecefull, they could make the compensation for the club that is finishing always in front of them (Nacional) but it?s a nulity in every european game... sometimes 6th can be better than 5th.
What is better for Portugal? Entering 4/6 clubs in GS?s or puting there 5/7? Last one, even having more risk. But as now IT give more spots and a portuguese would no surprise ine getting in UC by this via... who knows if this team don?t do better than the 2 clubs falling in UCR1?

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: daggy Date: 27-11-2006, 22:38 Edited by: daggy at: 27-11-2006, 23:25	could someone delete this post please

Author: daggy
Date: 27-11-2006, 23:24

They still had to play the last Qualification round
EDIT: I too hope Boavista qualifies for Uefa Cup next year, even if it's from Intertoto.
As I said before, most clubs here are poor, and alot of them have debts, even the "big 3". It would be bad for that team to lose in the qualifications for UC.

porto-1978 wrote: "What is better for Portugal? Entering 4/6 clubs in GS?s or puting there 5/7? Last one, even having more risk. But as now IT give more spots and a portuguese would no surprise ine getting in UC by this via... who knows if this team don?t do better than the 2 clubs falling in UCR1?"

It's not so easy, I think the some of the other portuguese teams saw what happened to Leiria and how hard it is to go to Uefa Cup from intertoto, they would think if it really is the trouble to risk some money just to get to Uefa? Then they see how hard it is to even get past the UCR1. They cant risk the little resources they have.
Yes, our league is richer than many like Romania, but if you think about it, only about 6 teams have real power, the rest is just the rest. In a country where 90% support one of the "big 3", most of our clubs in the Portuguese superleague cant even get an average of 5000 people in their stadiums, and it shouldnt be so high if it werent for the visits from Benfica, Porto and Sporting.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: 5UCLGSteams Date: 28-11-2006, 00:07	Badgerboy wrote : "Slightly alarming perhaps (if wikipedia is accurate) is that as well as still being Chairman of the football club (after serving a year's ban from UEFA) Gheorghe Stefan is also apparently mayor of Piatra Neamt." Wikipedia is indeed accurate! Romania is just always surprising, you should have known that Alarming is wikipedia not Romania!!

Author: Lupta_Steaua
Date: 28-11-2006, 03:26

to all Portuguese friends,

No offence, but I find some contradiction in the messages that you post. On one side, you claim that Romania actually has this high coefficient due to the fact that they play qualifying rounds, and that they will not do as well, when they will stop playing those rounds. On the other hand, you seem to be so scared of those particular qualifying rounds, for almost all teams outside the top 3.

This is funny, as an older (should I say former???) user of this forum, who was Romanian, used to claim that the qualifying rounds are by far not a blessing, as the risk is much higher than the reward. I believe Shev and Overgame would also agree to this.

Coming back to the topic currently under discussion, I also believe that the choice of the referree has less importance than the game itself. It does sound as a potential excuse for a loss from Dinamo.

But, as a joke, we can presume that there was a bargain with the Czechs last matchday - Steaua's draw against Dynamo, for a point in Bucharest for Mlada. I am just not sure if Rapid was aware of the arrangement. (or maybe they discussed the matter with the referree in Athens as well???)

Author: OMfan
Date: 28-11-2006, 09:09

I understand what portugese guys said.
Each club before participating IT probably try to know if it's it good or not for them.
There 's a difference between OM and a 5 ranked club in portugal.
The chances to pass are better for OM i guess.And money is very important here.If it cost to much; why participating if you think you will not pass?
In france OM hesitate.
Auxerre for example (guy roux especially who was the trainer for many years) always complaints cause playing uefa cost more than the money gained until quater final.
For marseilles it's different cause that's the only team in France who earn money in UC with TV right.other teams are on pay per view and tv buy the rights for a few euros.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 28-11-2006, 11:31

I'm sure there's no "conspiracy" behind Portuguese teams not entering the IT Cup. Clubs are just not that interested. Bear in mind in past years Leiria were the only club that were - they drop out then noone is left. I do think financial excuses for non-participation are a bit weak though. A lot of countries have clubs far poorer than Portugal - they all entered.

For me the solution is simple. Coefficients should count for the IT now just like they do for the qualifying rounds of other competitions. That way countries with clubs that qualify from the IT & lose quickly aren't penalised compared to those that lose in the IT itself. In addition each country is counted as having entered one club even if they choose not to participate. That way no advantage can be gained (intentionally or otherwise) from not taking part.

Author: moro
Date: 28-11-2006, 12:58

First of all, for god's name, I've never said there was conspiracy from Uefa, just that the decision was not wise, wether you like it or not, it's a fact. I sayed two times that the man can do human errors wich will be interpretated as volontier. I cant wait to see a romanian ref at some Portugal team game... and yours reactions after the game.
But the people of Portugal sent porto and daggy to demonstrate here that refs in this country, remember, living from soccer, dont know a thing about coefs. Because it seems that there are studies every week to see if refs in this country improve or not their brain-ability to receive football information.
The people of Portugal also sent those gentlemans to speak loud so that everybody could understand that football is only about money and Intertoto doesnt count because there's a 50.000 dollars deficit flying to Sofia to beat some team there in Intertoto, wich could provide one place in Uefa Cup, (QR or not, it's still Uefa Cup). Those teams should maybe considere closing stadium because not playing at all should be even more economic. But hey, teams below 4-th place are poor in Portugal, unlike all those teams in mid-ranking in Romania, Macedonia or Belarus, where millions of petro-dollars are stocked.

The conclusion is that only americans are not embarassed by Romania's raise in uefa ranking, as theirs journals had no articles about "east european football is a joke" (England), or Rumennigge's chills, etc.
Have a nice mid-week.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 29-11-2006, 21:36	Dinamo6bayer extremely poor game, only good thing, beside the result, is excellent ref from Portugal, looks like Uefa did good choice... hehe... until now.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: impdcl Date: 29-11-2006, 22:41	10.666 and counting .......

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: delustef Date: 29-11-2006, 22:48	Another superb victory for Dinamo and a good tactical game for the "red dogs"! Does anyone say anymore that Dinamo is not a good, solid team? There must be something with Dinamo that make team after team to recognize themselfes beaten! Dinamo playes again in the European Spring after seventeen years of absence....and 10.666 too!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: gabriel1 Date: 29-11-2006, 22:48	Dinamo Bucuresti - Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Dinamoooooo, la,la,la,la,dinamo, la,la,la,la...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: gabriel1 Date: 29-11-2006, 22:58 Edited by: gabriel1 at: 29-11-2006, 22:59	Country ranking 2006-2007: 1. Romania 10,666p 2. England 9,250p ..................

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: badgerboy Date: 29-11-2006, 22:59	From what I saw of the match it was very comfortable for the Romanians. They could even afford to give away a joke goal (It seems Romanian teams definitely lack good goalkeeping coaches) & still win. Leverkusen offered almost nothing - another very disappointing German team. Amazing that they still have a chance to qualify.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 29-11-2006, 23:42	Now I know it's only a wish, but if Rapid wins tomorrow, Romania will be on 6-th, even if this will last only 6 days. Too bad Az scored that 2-2 goal... Braga was out...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: gabriel1 Date: 30-11-2006, 22:56	1.Romania 11,000p... .......................

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: impdcl Date: 30-11-2006, 22:58	yes gabriel and counting......also good chances (60%, in my opinion) for Rapid to get the 3rd place

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Floridian Date: 30-11-2006, 23:04	PSG would need to beat already-qualified Panathinaikos for Rapid to fall to the 4th place, since any result in Hapoel T-A - Mlada Boleslav match on MD5 will leave Rapid on 3rd.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: daggy Date: 30-11-2006, 23:15	PSG still has 60% chance of passing, if they win their last game. Not a very good week for the dutchs and germans.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: gabriel1 Date: 30-11-2006, 23:21 Edited by: gabriel1 at: 30-11-2006, 23:21	....................... 5 Germany 40.364 6 Portugal 39.916 7 Romania 39.832 ......................

Author: santorini_gr
Date: 03-12-2006, 10:37

sorry to everrybody but my english is not so good,i will write one questions in romanian to respons me some people from my country:VA ROG SA-MI SPUNA CINEVA EXACT LA FIECARE LOC IN country coef. CATE ECHIPE ARE TARA RESPECTIVA IN CH.LEAGUE SI CATE IN UEFA!!!..INCEPAND CU LOCUL 6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,PANA LA LOCUL 16...de exemplu RO a terminat pe 10 anul trecut si va avea 2 CL(una in grupa,si una baraj)2UC....daca putetzi sa-mi spunetzi si pt CL la fiecare loc cate sant calificate direct in grupe si cate joaca baraj....MERCI MULT.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: 5UCLGSteams Date: 03-12-2006, 13:53	@santorini : vezi ca la inceputul paginii e un link catre Forum 2 inregistreaza-te acolo si da-mi un mesaj privat dupaia si iti raspund la toate intrebarile. Aici ii incurcam pe ceilalti daca vorbim in romana

Author: Maluyaca
Date: 05-12-2006, 23:54
Edited by: Maluyaca
at: 05-12-2006, 23:57

Normally I would have waited till all the matches of the week would have been played but this one is important to mention.

Ai Ai Ai, o meu querido Sporting.

Sporting out, so Portugal loose one of their topteam. A bad thing for Portugals coefficient. Werder loose at Barca and go to Uefa good thing for Germany.

Probably that Portugal will be passed by Romania. So going for Romania and Germany for top 6. I would have liked it else.

Maybe that the draw of the Uefa and CL can turn things around once more. Or am I just hoping?

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: dragos_popa17 Date: 06-12-2006, 08:43	Spartak's win over Sporting is a big blow for Portugal. With Porto most probably going into the last 16 of the CL, Portugal now desperatly needs Benfica to have a long run in the UC(I don't see Braga gathering many points)

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: antonio62tr Date: 06-12-2006, 09:46	I think after GS Romania stay 2/3(bye bye Rapid), Portugal 3/6(i hope Braga survive) and Germany 2/7 ...Romania has very good chance to go for no 5...Also i dont believe Werder will do good at UC..UC teams underrated at this time and after winter time we do not know who will be best fitted team...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: exile Date: 06-12-2006, 10:52	With Sporting now out, my prediction method, based on "highest ranking team wins at home, draws away" now has Romania to finish on 42.165 and Portugal on 41.249, Netherlands 40.093. Germany still 5th on 43.078

Author: Maluyaca
Date: 06-12-2006, 23:14
Edited by: Maluyaca
at: 06-12-2006, 23:17

Standings after CL group stage

5 Germany 9.142 4.714 10.571 10.437 6.071 40.935 4/ 7
6 Portugal 10.750 10.250 8.166 5.500 5.583 40.249 3/ 6
7 Romania 2.166 4.333 5.500 16.833 11.333 40.165 3/ 3
8 Netherlands 6.166 5.416 12.000 7.583 5.357 36.522 5/ 7

I thought that Romania would pass Portugal this year and that portugal would pas them in the spring. It's not for this year the overtaken but I think that these countries will watch the draw vary carefully. The draw could be a serious tie-breaker.

Author: Lupta_Steaua
Date: 06-12-2006, 23:42

Maluyaka,

This year is not over yet

. One more game for each side. I agree that the opponents and the home advantage are clearly in Portugal favour, but you never now.

Talking about spring, it would look like, chances are greater for Romania to go past Portugal, as Porto's opponents are by far not easy ones. As for the UEFA, the draw will be indeed crucial.

And we also still don't know what teams will remain:

Romania 3/3 or 2/3 and
Portugal 2/6 or 3/6.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 07-12-2006, 13:59	Good news for Dinamo Bucarest, Tottenham has Premier League match less than 48h after Tottenham-Dinamo, maybe they'll put second team on the field... with a draw Romania almost on 6-th place...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: dinamo_fan_4_ever Date: 07-12-2006, 15:12	still hard to predict but if both leverkussen and eintracht loose than germany can be also overtaken. p.s. i looked over the team ranking and i must congartulate steaua because it is the first team in eastern europe in the coefficient ranking

Author: badgerboy
Date: 07-12-2006, 16:19

"Good news for Dinamo Bucarest, Tottenham has Premier League match less than 48h after Tottenham-Dinamo, maybe they'll put second team on the field"

Actually that match has been moved to Sunday now. It wouldn't surprise me if Tottenham use a few "fringe" players though. I'm sure they'd like to win the group but I can't see them bursting a blood vessel to do so - they'd probably settle for a point.

Author: edieseb
Date: 07-12-2006, 17:55

I, For some reason, was always under the impression that english teams never (or almost never) play international games "at ease", with second team, like say Germany or Italy sometimes. I think the amout of coefficient points they get every year in the group stage (usually very high) shows that to a certain degree. I might be wrong though and Dinamo trash Tottenham, not because of being the better team, but mostly because of the latter not being interested in the game. Dinamo has a couple absent players as well if I'm not wrong

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 07-12-2006, 17:56	Niculescu, best Dinamo player, is "off" for Tottenham. Pitty.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 07-12-2006, 18:36

"I, For some reason, was always under the impression that english teams never (or almost never) play international games "at ease", with second team"

Well Liverpool rested a fair few players this week and United did the same against Kobenhavn (a rather arrogant attitude that led to nervous qualification in the end). My inclination is to think that results for English clubs overall are pretty poor once they've achieved -or nearly achieved - their main objective but I might be wrong.

Of course Tottenham may place more emphasis on winning the match than I expect. It depends also on how Dinamo treat the game. My guess is - at the start - both teams would be fairly happy with a point - but Tottenham even more so than Dinamo. A point after all wins the group. So it could be a pretty dull game. But if Dinamo really go for the jugular and take the lead it will be interesting to see how Tottenham react. On a good day they have the ability to come back against any side and if they do have a good day it will be interesting to see how Dinamo measure up - but they could equally have a bad day - decide the result doesn't matter at all - & roll over completely.

Author: edieseb
Date: 07-12-2006, 18:49

Trying to figure out Dinamo's atitude, I think they'll play for that 1 point as well. Although the pride of having a good game against a good team is there, I think romanian teams got a little more cerebral and see the benefits in the long run (it's one coefficient point added for next year in CL) rather than doing a game with an open play and eventually lose. I also might me wrong but I think that'll be the case even if they will play with the 1st team: be calm and secure that 1 point, eventually go for the win in the last minutes.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 07-12-2006, 19:18	I see a 3-3, or 3-2 or even 2-3. Minimum 5 goals. It'll be very spectacular game, the large amounts of goals because Dinamo has excellent attack and poor defense.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: dinamo_fan_4_ever Date: 07-12-2006, 20:45	yes dinamo will play to win or at least they will try ... on the other hand dinamo has some injured players: d serban, niculescu, ze kalanga and blay but i think the substitudes will play well if noone gets injured till next week dinamo will start like this: gaev - pulhac r.stefan moti mihut - munteanu margaritescu ropotan cristea - danciulescu ganea pretty good starting 11

Author: edieseb
Date: 07-12-2006, 21:39

I don't share @moro's view of a high score, but for most of the people on this forum who don't know Dinamo's players, the attack force that he's talking about are 3 fairly experienced players over 30 (Ganea, Danciulescu and Niculescu - the latter injured, so he won't play) who scored like 90 percent of the total goals of the team this season - 24 victories out of 29 games if I'm not wrong and the 3 strikers scored a combined total of like 50 goals. @moro has valid ground to hope in scoring a lot of goals, but I remind him that Dinamo didn't score 3 goals to the other 3 teams in the group which are supposed to be weaker (considering the results).

Author: edieseb
Date: 07-12-2006, 21:53

Coefficient-wise:

Dinamo loses: Portugal ends the year on 6th regardless of Braga's result
Dinamo draws - Braga draws: Romania ends the year on 6th
Dinamo draws - Braga wins: Portugal finishes the year on 6th
Dinamo wins: Romania finishes on 6th no matter the result in Braga

It doesn't change much, as the coefficient is so close now. A bad performance in the spring from 1 team of either Germany, Portugal or Romania pretty much will give a big push up to the other 2 countries. I would think Romania and Germany have the advantage mainly because of dividing the points by 3 for Romania and because of Werder in the UC for Germany, but anything is possible.
From a mathematic point of view is it still possible for Netherlands to get on 6th and if yes, how?

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 07-12-2006, 22:30	@edieseb I'm aware of Dinamo's little scores away (mostly 1-0) in ch-ship, but this will be the last game of the year, full objective on, they should play like Steaua and put about 2 goals in, why not 3. Tottenham's defense is not so good as Lyon's one, Dinamo's attack better than Steaua's. I really think it's gonna be a great match.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: gone Date: 07-12-2006, 23:31	"Dinamo's attack better than Steaua's" How in the hell did you get that one? I would rather have Dica, Thereau, Badea or Iacob in my team then Niculescu, Danciulescu or Ganea.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 08-12-2006, 00:44

Edieseb wrote:

"From a mathematic point of view is it still possible for Netherlands to get on 6th and if yes, how?"

If both Portugal & Romania were to fail to score any more points Netherlands would need 27 to finish sixth.

They are playing for eight points next week - up to 16 but more realistically 12 in the UEFA last 32 (Heerenveen are big outsiders to qualify), PSV would hope to score at least a couple of points - who knows they could do better than that....

At the moment realistically they appear right out of the race - but imagine this set of results...

Tottenham 1 Dinamo 0 (Dinamo 2nd)
Sevilla 1 AZ 1 (AZ win the group, Sevilla 2nd)
Braga 1 Grasshoppers 0 (Braga 3rd)
Heerenveen 1 Lens 0 (Heerenveen out)
Feyenoord 1 Wisla 0 (Feyenoord 3rd)
Zulte 0 Ajax 1 (Ajax 2nd)
PSG 1 Panathinaikos 0 (Rapid out)

That would give us:

Portugal 40.582 (3/6)
Romania 40.165 (2/3)
Netherlands 37.522 (4/7)

Then imagine...

PSV v Valencia 1-0 1-2 PSV on agg. 3 points & through.
Porto v Chelsea 0-1 0-1 Porto out - zero points
Werder Bremen v Dinamo Bucharest 1-0 1-0 - Dinamo out - zero points
Steaua v Sevilla 0-1 0-1 - Steaua out - zero points
Benfica v Ajax 0-1 0-1 - Ajax 4 points & through, Benfica out
Braga v AZ 0-1 0-1 - AZ 4 points & through, Braga out
Feyenoord v Rangers 1-0 1-0 - Feyenoord 4 points & through

Then we have:

Portugal 40.582 (finished)
Romania 40.165 (finished)
Netherlands 39.644 (4/7)

Netherlands would then need just seven more points to be sixth with three teams in the last 16 of the UEFA Cup and PSV still in the CL.

Yes it's still mathematically possible for Netherlands to be sixth. In fact if the draw worked out something like outlined above it doesn't even seem particularly unlikely...

Author: Lupta_Steaua
Date: 08-12-2006, 02:37

Badgerboy,

If we follow your line of thought, it would also seem that France is not certain of its 4 position:

Romania needs 34.5 points to catch France at the moment, out of a total of 57 available.

It is also possible to build up a scenario where France does not get more points:
Lens has a chance to miss out
Auxerre as well
PSG (hopefully

), the same

So France in spring with only 3 teams

than again:
Lyon-Barcelona (3rd year potential final with one team going out in the 1/8)
Nancy - Ajax
Bordeaux - Tottenham (as Dinamo would need to win the group)

All French teams out, all Romanian teams through and almost there.

Of course, I am joking now, as I am sure Badgerboy also did not believe completely in his prediction.

I wrote this, based on my initial prediction, where my predictions for Portugal and Romania where much closer to reality, and the Holland one was way overstated.

As usual, mathematical chances in football rearly come true, and the championship usually goes to the the team that was ahead, even before the end of the season.

Anyway, for the fun of it (if anyone wants to do the computation), does Russia have chances to end up in the top 6?

Author: Overgame
Date: 08-12-2006, 06:32

The big differences between the scenario with France and the scenario with Netherlands are :
Auxerre is playing at home, and need a draw to qualify.
Lens needs to lose 3-0 to be out

Romania needs 33 points (with 3 teams) to catch France,15 victories and 1 draw, 3 teams playing last 32. 6 games for last 32, 6 games for last 16 and 6 games for last 8 (+3 bonus points) is the minimum to expect that, without seeing a direct confrontation between 2 romanian teams and an elimination versus some big team :p

Author: Maluyaca
Date: 08-12-2006, 08:13

@Lupta_Steaua

I posted before what I thought in the past that would happen this year. It think I mentioned that.

This year I don't see the romanians get points anymore. I'm sorry but I saw Bruges play on TV against Leverkussen, against Dinamo and against Tottenham. Dinamo and Tottenham there is a difference between the football level. So for the better I would say a sure 1 the match between Tottenham and Dinamo.

Now what I think that will happen in the battle for spot 6 but maybe that I will change my mind next week after the draw. Romania is in and Portugal and Germany will have to fight for it with advantage for Germany.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Ricardo Date: 08-12-2006, 08:21	@badgerboy, I like this kind of predictions. Not only because I'm Dutch, but also because if you do these kind of predictions in our prediction match on forum2 I feel I have a chance again..

Author: badgerboy
Date: 08-12-2006, 12:37

"Of course, I am joking now, as I am sure Badgerboy also did not believe completely in his prediction".

It's definitely not a prediction - sorry Ricardo -

just a response to Edieseb's question about mathematical possibilities. That said - most of the individual results I've come up with don't seem that unlikely - though I definitely wouldn't predict all of them! But I can't imagine the draw in the real world turning out as well for the Dutch or as badly for the other two countries involved.

On the same lines - Russia needs 19 points if Portugal & Romania are both bowled without troubling the scorer again. The UEFA Cup winner scores between 12 & 21 points - 16 might be a reasonable estimate. A semi-final loser at least 8 points - more likely about 10.

So Russia would need both teams to do extremely well with the Romanians capitulating completely (hardly any more points at all because obviously their coefficient rises by 0.333 for every point gained) and all the Portuguese teams also losing in the first knockout rounds.

Author: Lupta_Steaua
Date: 08-12-2006, 15:08

Overgame,

You always seem to over react when the discussion gets to Romania.

My reply was just referring to mathimatical chances as well, it had nothing to do with what I actually believe would happen.

I chose France as they are the country that Romania would (from a simply mathematical point of view) be able to catch.

Unfortunatelly, I could not "predict" anything for England, as they are way out of reach.

(at least for this season

)

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Overgame Date: 08-12-2006, 18:44	Normal, i don't see a ..... Czech coming explain how they could reach the 5th place.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 08-12-2006, 19:54	And why the czech doesnt explain how to reach 5-th position? Hm, maybe cause this will be possible only after 2012 (Romania reserved this place until then)?

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Ricardo Date: 08-12-2006, 20:25	No, Romania will be higher then, probably top-3 after next year....

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Giuseppe Date: 08-12-2006, 23:23 Edited by: Giuseppe at: 08-12-2006, 23:23	Top 3? You're seriously underestimating us... we'll be aiming for first place

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Fallen Date: 09-12-2006, 10:17	hehehe, we'll probably stop our climb in the rankings after next season. I really doubt that on long term we can stay in the top5. Top 10 maybe, but not more ...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Arny Date: 09-12-2006, 17:17	"Top 3? You're seriously underestimating us... we'll be aiming for first place" I think they should make a special cup only for Romanian teams because clearly we are way above all the team here in the rankings

Author: lazio
Date: 09-12-2006, 18:09
Edited by: lazio
at: 09-12-2006, 18:12

Arny

It's a good one...

And I propose to move the Vatican near Bucharest, Romania to be considered The Holly Land, next Champions League final to be: Poli Iasi - Farul Constanta, Steaua to be in third division, Barcelona in the fourth...Reading to win Premier League for 10 consecutive years...like Celtic did...next World Cup to be won by Finland, next European Championship by Wales...so I'm wondering...if I put 1euro on my predictions how much I'll win?...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: dinamo_fan_4_ever Date: 09-12-2006, 19:46	boasting, subjectivity, bitter humour and envy, anything else ?

Author: lazio
Date: 09-12-2006, 22:11
Edited by: lazio
at: 09-12-2006, 22:17

dinamo_fan_4_ever

Look, it's my way to make fun of me...otherwise, the others make fun of Romanian teams...and that just because of some who dream to catch France, Italy, whatever...it's OK to dream...but it's not OK to brag and to put yourself in stupid position saying that you gonna be third, second, whatever...romanian teams are doing very well in the past 2 seasons, but that is that!! From those performances to third place in Europe is still a huge gap...and we must admited before we look ridiculous...

Author: moro
Date: 10-12-2006, 09:55

@Lazio
When this season started, everybody said that "last season was a lucky one, and that's it for Romania"... now you're saying last two season and that's it, next year you'll say you know what... You have no ideea what's happenning, there will be a lot of money invested in our teams next year and they will play at least as well as now, certainly, we need some luck, but we'll pass France maybe next year (5.700 points difference at this moment in 2008 ranking). The fourth romanian team (Clij or Timisoara) is also a good one, if they'll pass UCR1 they should normally pass Gs also.
I think claiming again and again that it's about luck is even more boring that claiming that Romania will raise and raise.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 11-12-2006, 10:14

If next year will be like this, only playing with 4 teams instead of 3, then Romania will get a few less points. But probaly still more than France. Remember you currently are only a lousy 5 points behind in the 2003-2008 ranking and you got 1.5 years to close that gap: piece of cake !

Livorno kicks Auxerre out, Heerenveen Lens and PSG will not win from Pana, so Rapid will be in and PSG out. Finaly Steaua will in next round defeat Nancy, and all French teams will be out- except for maybe Lyon, but will they be able to beat Barca?

Author: OMfan
Date: 11-12-2006, 11:43

First no difference between place 4-5-6
Lupta: How can you say that romania could take 4th place?
It is really a joke
You said that our three qualified team could be eliminated in next round...You forgo that we don't have 3 but 4 teams stil qualified: Lyon, bordeaux, lille and Nancy.And the 3 other ones are not eliminated!!Lens as good chances, for Paris and auxerre let's see.But we could have 7/8 teams in round 3!!
Personaly i don't think we are in danger.I'm not sure romania will score more points than us this year and if it do it, i think the difference will be small.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 11-12-2006, 13:12	It's about 4-th place in 2008 final ranking, not this year of course.

Author: exile
Date: 11-12-2006, 14:57

There is some logical fallacy here - the "Coefficient fallacy"? That is, if you have one (or even two) good seasons in Europe the next 3-4 seasons will also be good, regardless of the fact you now have more teams to divide your points by.

Other than the top 3, other countries are unlikely to sustain a top ranking year after year.

I'm not downplaying the achievements of Romanian clubs, but the admission of a 4th team in 2007-8, and then 5th/6th teams in 2008-9, will make a big difference.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: OMfan Date: 11-12-2006, 15:51	moro 2008 or 2009 no matter. We are not afraid anymore.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Lupta_Steaua Date: 11-12-2006, 16:38	OMFan, I guess you just understood me wrongly. I never claimed that Romania would get the 4th spot. All I did was make a little fun of badger's message, and show the math side of the ecuation in a similar fashion.

Author: moro
Date: 11-12-2006, 18:46

OM fan, it's a good thing that u're not afraid. Anyway, for 2008 ranking France should better watch in front than back, Italy is only 3 little pigs in front. If France can catch Italy, they'll keep 4-th place...
I "appreciate" the way people are selling us the future romanian failure in the system, based on 4-th, 5-th and 6-th teams inability to produce points, well I think this is absolute ignorance in football matters. How can you tell a team will play bad in two years?? Abramovici or one of his cousins could put 100 millions in a team to play like Chelsea. I know it's not gonna happend soon, but somebody with 10 millions could make a very nice team at Cluj and Timisoara. And let me tell you a secret: you dont need 6 teams to get the quarters finals to keep you up, 1 semi, 1 quarter and 2 GS are enough.
So give us a break with this so-hoped-failure. See you in 2009 with the liste of results. Until then, let's count point after point after point.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 11-12-2006, 19:08

Moro

I don't think there are many people on here looking forward to Romania failing.

But I bet there are more than a few people who roll their eyes at posts that give the impression there are people who genuinely believe the rankings mean Romania are one of the best half a dozen (or even five, or four...) footballing countries in Europe.

Romania had an excellent year last year - two European quarter-finalists. One good team & one very good team.

This year they might end up doing as well - or even better. But so far they have one team (Dinamo) playing very well. A second (Rapid) who haven't managed to win a group match in a UEFA Cup group hardly bursting with obvious quality. And a third (Steaua) who - although far from embarrassed in the CL were also shown to be a fair way off the level of the top teams in that competition. And with these - less than earth-shattering results - they have a coefficient of 11.333.

When you put it that way you can see why someone like Beckenbauer might be asking questions about the system. And why some people on this forum might question the assumption that Romania's "rise" will continue indefinitely.

Author: edieseb
Date: 11-12-2006, 20:09

Just for the sake of imagining how would it be with 6 teams (I don't even know if we'll get there, although the odds are in our favour - you never know what will happen though).

Anyway, I was thinking that with 6 teams we would have 3 teams in R1 of UC. Let's imagine that these are not the big 3 of today, but teams like (just speculating) Cluj, Timisoara and Otelul. I'm thinking that all of them would love to go to the group stage and they will fight for it (I doubt we'll get the mentality of some other countries where they ignore these games in UC in favor of the domestic fixtures). Although not seeded, I am expecting one team to pass to the GS (like Cluj who chalenges the 3 teams in Bucharest - they beat Dinamo who otherwise is unbeaten, they play good and have an italian coach who knows to feel the game and go for the result). The point is that if a team like Dinamo or Rapid can qualify, Cluj can qualify too. The other 2 teams would fight hard, but not qualify because of not being seeded and lack of international experience. Still, I expect a combined 3 pts for the 2.

From the big 3, 2 will be in the GS of CL, so a bonus of 6 pts, and I think that with both being in pot 2 or 3 (good chances for the 3 teams if they add a couple more points this and next year), they should be able to get 3rd in the group and go to the UC. So another 8 points for these 2 teams in the GS of CL, then one loses the SF of UC, the other goes out in the last 16 of UC (that means around 18 pts). Total these 2 teams: 32 pts

The third team, can either win the Q3 tie in CL and with the bonus pts and just 1 win or 2 draws get a total of 7 pts (also chances of being in pot 3) or can lose the tie and get 1 point or none and then go to the UC and get easy the same 7 points or more (seeded in R1, probably pot 2-3 in GS).

I think with decent results like the above (I don't see why these would be considered ridiculous when the teams in Romania want to improve now instead of cashing in the last and this season), no cup winner, 1 semi-finalist in UC, 1 team in the last 16, one in the last 32, one in the GS of UC and two eliminated from the very beginning we can still get something like 57 points and that's 9.500 for the country coefficient. Is it really that abnormal for the romanian teams? I don't think any of the teams from Romania would aim for less than what I described here (maybe more). After a couple years, if the desire for playing in the UC will not be there anymore, like in other countries, yes you can lose points really fast and really easy. For now though, why being so very pessimistic?

Author: halftime_champion
Date: 11-12-2006, 20:17

i've noticed that this specific subject somehow goes on an on and round and up and down from the tree and into the bushes on this entire forum.

opinion. a rightful place for .ro in the uefa rankigs, judging by the quality of the romanian teams' overall game quality in european competitions should be somewhere between 12 and 8, jumping all around in that yard but not outside. the improvement of the .ro football is quite obvious, better said: spectacular. but that spectacular bit is the element i'm worried about: there's this formidable climb in the rankings but at the same there is an irritating rollercoaster graphic of the ro.teams's games (save for rapid, of course, they are absoluteley precious with their 4 points in their 4 games in the groups)look at steaua - big one against kyiev then they screw up! twice! at home! big style! then a better one away, then an awful one in bucharest and then a nice one in lyon; not to talk about last year's u.cup. as for dinamo, i'll say nothing for the moment, they had there share of luck and managed to perform upwards till now, with some thrills and chills, but just wait till springtime to see, i'd bet my tickets (if i'd have them) for any 3rd bolivian league match that they'll get on the general .ro tracks once they're outside the groups. en fin.
long story short: once and if romanian teams manage to fix this(eg: the majority of the teams get to perform well on a regular basis) only then it would be appropriate to brag about hitting the 4th 3rd or 2nd or 1st place. till then- keep your mouth shut(metaphorically speaking, so don't you all start cracking my n>s about freedom of speech)on getting 2nd best in .eu - but still wear a big grin on your face as germany gets to bite the dust for a bit.
as for a place somewhere below no.12, that would be simply unfair - progress is too obvious to be denied, even by the malevolent.

.well sorry for any lack of consistency that my post may have, i'm not yet used with writing novels like the one above, my ideas might get a bit `allovertheplace`.
ps. for the epic battle for this god-blessed spot my favourites are the romanians and the portugese; i fail to see how the dutch might seize this grail with the performance of the teams thay now have left in the cups-as for the germans, sorry boys and girls but from the way things look from here i forsee a hurtfull fall to the edge where the 2-digit ranks begin.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: 5UCLGSteams Date: 11-12-2006, 20:33	is it big enough?

Author: edieseb
Date: 11-12-2006, 20:34

A breakdown of the numbers:

Team 1: 3(B)+ 4-5(GS CL)+ 3 (L32 UC) + 3(L16) + 1(B) + 3 (QF) + 1(B) + 2 (SF) = 20 pts
Team 2: 3(B) + 3-4(GS CL) + 3(L32 UC) + 2(L16)= 12 pts
Team 3: 1(Q3 CL) + 3(R1 UC) + 5 (GS UC) + 2 (L32) = 11 pts
Team 4: 2(R1 UC) + 4(GS) = 6 pts
Teams 5 and 6 = a combined 3 pts in R1

It's actually around 52 points and a coefficient of 8.667 which is realistic and achievable every year. You can have a bad year with one team failing to get the points it's supposed to, but you can also have a better year. we'll see.

I wouldn't bet money on these results, but it's not a very hard task either

Author: moro
Date: 11-12-2006, 20:38

I agree edieseb. In fact, all "anti-romanians" (no race thing here, it's friendly anti-romanians, I'm an friendly anti-everybody above Romania), are saying that in the future Romania will go down because there will be more teams to play. Nobody even considered that one or two of those extra-teams has ambitions, money, talent etc and can go well.
Romania should perform just like Holland, Portugal and Germany did. Sometimes coef 8, sometimes catastrophic 5, sometimes excellent 11, enough to stay in 4-9th place. You guys should think about this. It's not sure at all that we'll have 5 seasons in a row with only 5 coef like hope, to go like Greece or Turkey or others big loosers (sorry for that, beautifuls countries). What I see, as I'm re-watching romanian ch-ship since last year after a 6 years break, is that teams like Urziceni or Craiova and others, 13 placed, can play good football, not so far from let's say Heerenveen, when playing against top teams. Those talking about Ro-failure have no ideea about our progress. And more than that, Steaua and Rapid's performance last year showed the way, there's a lot of ambition here. Our players are running 93 minutes, something that u could'nt see five years ago.

Bagderboy, I hope that time will show I was right. And the fact that Romania's (and Russia's) extraordinar rise it's almost singular in let's say 15 years, is the proof that the system is OK and human - the exception who confirm the rule. Rume's action was an incredible lost of cold-blood, he saw his country under the gun and try to save them. Look at Germany's poor performance last years, nobody's scared of german teams anymore.

Trie to calculate Romania's coefficient last two years with 4 teams, assuming that fourth team would perform 0 points: we should be arround Russia, at 34-35 points, still close to our present position! It's over for Germany and Portugal, maybe now, sure nexy year. Bad performance for 3-4 teams means "let's see anything else". And this time is Romania's time. Steaua played very nice at Madrid, excellent at Lyon against very good 75% Lyon team. Next year they will show another face in CL, this year they were shocked. Don't know about Dinamo, we'll see. Just give them a decent group.
I'm not stupid, I know any team from now on could loose the KO round, and Romania maybe go on 8-th, maybe on 5-th. But there were enormous achievement and progress in Ro soccer to be respected. And I'm telling you, there's more action to come.

Author: edieseb
Date: 11-12-2006, 21:08

We look at Portugal and Germany sweating to keep a place in top 6 and France is calm and quiet. Over the years we had chalengers for the top 6, like Netherlands, Greece, Turkey and none could hang on to that position. That's defenitly the beauty of this ranking, otherwise we wouldn't be here discussing.

But I think a place in top 6 (4 to 6 more exact) is not that much to be won, but it's more lost by the countries that go down. If it wasn't Romania, it would've been Russia or Netherlands next year to chalenge Portugal and Germany. They have a more linear performance than Romania, so you exclude the "luck" Romania had. The problem is that Portugal and Germany lost their place, not that the others want more.
With 2 top teams that could make fairly easy 30 pts each year (all the countries discussed here have those 2 teams), you need the other 4 teams to get a combined 20 pts. If that's too hard, then you don't deserve to be up there.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 12-12-2006, 08:24

Romania could become a country like Netherlands, Portugal, Greece and Turkey, that have 2-3 topteams and a few below them that in a good season also can gather some points. The trick with the subtop teams is that they will have to do it 2 years in a row. First to qualify, second to get the points. That is sometime is a problem. Also when you compare with heerenveen, look at what this team did this year. OK they qualified for the UC-GS, but not getting much points with it, despite their experience.
Having a semi-finalist every year is, I think, impossible, but as the top Romanian teams stay like they are now, then a 5 points in a bad year still should be possible. 10 in a good year, like Holland has. It will also depends on how many teams play. When you are having a great year when only playing with 4, the result will be more extreme(like Romania is having now and Portugal a few years ago)

Author: badgerboy
Date: 12-12-2006, 12:20

Moro wrote:

"I agree edieseb. In fact, all "anti-romanians" (no race thing here, it's friendly anti-romanians, I'm an friendly anti-everybody above Romania), are saying that in the future Romania will go down because there will be more teams to play. Nobody even considered that one or two of those extra-teams has ambitions, money, talent etc and can go well".

1. I'm not "anti-Romania" even in a friendly way. Personally, I'd love to see Cluj & Timisoara having great runs in the UEFA Cup - Dinamo being a surprise CL quarter-finalist etc. If this happened I'd be very afraid for this forum but apart from that it would be marvellous!

2. I'm not necessarily saying Romania will go down. They wont for a while but ought to eventually. See below. I am saying they wont continue to go up. I do realise most of the "going up" posts are fairly "tongue-in-cheek" but I'm not always sure!

3. I would say that the main reason I'd expect Romania to go down eventually is not the extra teams (of course this helps) but the fact that the best teams (presumably best three teams by 2009-10 at the latest) will be playing CL not UEFA Cup. Yes the bonus points will replace a lot of the lost qualifying points. Yes third spot & carrying on in the UEFA Cup is a realistic target - although UEFA are obviously considering changing this. But if Romanian football develops as you hope I don't see why the UEFA Cup would be much of a priority to those top clubs any more than it is to top clubs in the other countries. First priority - winning a competitive championship. Second priority - ensuring a top three finish (which shouldn't be a foregone conclusion in a competitive league where the best clubs have big European distractions).

I'm not saying Romania is likely to fall because I think Romanian football isn't very good. So far none of the "big three" have looked anything like as good to me as a PSV or Porto in a good year. But that might change. And the level they are at now looks more than respectable. But they are likely to fall not only because their own coefficient will fall but because as soon as Portugal and/or Holland (and/or Germany if you like - but I don't see it) fall below 8th their own coefficient naturally rises.

I've already said elsewhere that Romania will keep six teams for some time:

2008-09 European Season. Will most likely be ranked somewhere between 6th & 8th. Six teams.

2009-10. Ranking based on results up to end of 2007-08 season - when playing with 4 or 5 teams. Lose 2002-03 coefficient (just 2.166). A fall is almost impossible. Likely to end year ranked 5th or 6th. Six teams - almost certainly 3 CL.

2010-11. Lose 2003-04 coefficient (4.333). Replaced by 2008-09 season points (1st with six teams). Performances of other countries a big factor - as always - but likely ranked between 5th & 8th. Still six teams.

2011-12. Lose 2004-05 coefficient (5.500). I would say that matching this coefficient with three CL teams in 2009-10 would be excellent consolidation. The 4th (& last?) season where six teams in Europe ought to be almost assured.

2012-13 & 2013-14. The seasons where the big coefficients (16.833 & 11.333+) are lost. Suddenly the situation with countries like Portugal is reversed. In 2010-11 (which replaces 2005-06) Romania have 11 more coefficient points to protect (that's 66 actual points) - probably playing with two more teams. Now some kind of fall becomes extremely likely if not inevitable.

It will be extremely interesting to see where Romania are ranked in 2013-14 when place allocations are based on results from 2007-08 to 2011-12. I'll stick my neck out & say that, by then, they will be ranked slightly lower than the quality of their football indicates they should be!

Author: moro
Date: 12-12-2006, 13:28

Bdgerboy, I know u're not anti-Ro, my word for you was in the second part. I like most of yours opinions.
I agree we'll have to wait 2012 to se what Romania will do. But still, one correction to make: it's not sure at all that let's say Cluj will play in Uefa in 2010 (why not in CL?) while Steaua could play in Uefa (not in CL), etc, so maybe one team in CL will make good results, two in uefa excellent... to keep us up. I really believe Romania will stay in top 6 at least until that 16 coef go away, maybe even after that if things will go like I think.
Anyway, it's OK somebody here agree that Romania's future failure is only hypothetic.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: 5UCLGSteams Date: 13-12-2006, 13:03	"Dinamo being a surprise CL quarter-finalist" that should be friendly "anti-Steaua" did i get it right?

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 13-12-2006, 13:07	Yeah, right, let's hope so, but even that would'nt harm Steaua, they could come up with one Cup, one final and one semi-final, wich worth largely 10 eventual Dinamo's quarter-finals. Love both teams. And Rapid.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 13-12-2006, 13:25

5UCLGSteams wrote:

""Dinamo being a surprise CL quarter-finalist" that should be friendly "anti-Steaua" did i get it right?"

I thought calling Steaua reaching the CL Quarter-Finals a "surprise" might offend some people

To be honest the top Romanian teams haven't been around long enough for me to get "bored" with them yet. While I get disappointed when I see Anderlecht & Brugge at the top in Belgium (go Genk!), Olympiakos in Greece, Sparta back on top in Czech Rep. & Rosenborg in Norway etc. it's a case of "Not them again". Give the Romanian teams a couple of years & I probably will be saying the same about Steaua - or whichever Romanian team has made most GS appearances. Come on Timisoara, Cluj-Napoca or Craiova! Indeed anyone except those bloody teams from the capital again!

Author: OMfan
Date: 13-12-2006, 13:30

@Moro
I don't think romania will fail.Their results are really good.The system is working and that's not a problem that romania (will)could have 3 spot in CL.It's just normal : they have the results, they will have the ranking and the spots.But I just think that's going to be not enough to take France place in the ranking next year and the years after.We could have a bad year(when i say that, i think about a 7 coef in a season i hope we'll never have a catastrophic year as germany) but I'm a supporter and i'm confident i think we will have every year a coeff between 10 and 12 and it 's enough (don't you think) to stay above romania.
Take the 3rd place? let's see next year (no milan, no Juve for Italy?)but today it's just an impossible dream.
I could be wrong and if romania score more than 2 coeff point difference with France at the and of the season,i will be less confident.But the season is still very long.
I hope there will be French teams against romanian in UC it could be very interesting.
Good luck romania.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: 5UCLGSteams Date: 13-12-2006, 13:44 Edited by: 5UCLGSteams at: 13-12-2006, 13:45	@badgerboy Well in this case i think you might be very impressed in the future of how long Dinamo will have kept that place in your heart with their sensational UCL GS and then KO activity still to come ....very interesting to see then how friendly anti-romanian you won't be

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: antonio62tr Date: 13-12-2006, 15:06	Isnt it too early for talking coefficient of 2012?? Up to that time mabe Romanians will find patrol, gas or even gold at their country...Maybe 3rd world war will begin?? who knows???

Author: exile
Date: 13-12-2006, 15:20

Since people have set up spreadsheets for 2007-8 predictions, we can at least have a go at predicting the rankings up to the end of that season.

My own method (highest ranked team wins at home, draws away) gives

1. Spain
2. England (catching up fast)
3. Italy
4. France
5. Romania
6. Germany
7. Netherlands
8. Russia
9. Portugal
10. Scotland
11. Turkey
12. Ukraine
13. Belgium
14. Greece
15. Czech
16. Bulgaria
17. Norway
18. Switzerland
19. Denmark
20. Serbia

Though my method isn't very good at predicting winners of each tournament, here we go

2008 CL final: Barcelona to beat Inter, semifinalists Real Madrid, Liverpool

UEFA Cup Final: Arsenal to beat Newcastle (qualified as 2007 UC winners) semis Villareal and Auxerre

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: gone Date: 13-12-2006, 15:51	Antonio, "Isnt it too early for talking coefficient of 2012?? Up to that time mabe Romanians will find patrol, gas or even gold at their country...Maybe 3rd world war will begin?? who knows???" Actualy, we do have gold. But it's a big discution on the subject. http://www.rosiamontana.org/ Sorry for the offtopic.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 13-12-2006, 18:10

"Isnt it too early for talking coefficient of 2012?? Up to that time mabe Romanians will find patrol, gas or even gold at their country...Maybe 3rd world war will begin?? who knows???"

Or we might have a Euroleague. At the very least UEFA are bound to have tinkered with the UEFA competitions somehow to change the expected future!

But I see no harm in pontificating on what might happen. Indeed in some ways it seems easier projecting so far ahead when small events don't affect much than trying to work out just this year - when every unexpected result changes something!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Gabi Date: 13-12-2006, 18:44	We have petrol, gas and even gold.

Author: moro
Date: 13-12-2006, 19:30

Yeah Gabi, we have gas but still buying it from Russia with a double price than others... petrol just enough to get some politician rich... we have lot of wood, but sold it to few gouvernement friends and now it's well-packed to go, etc.
The problem of the day is "is Rapid's owner going to stimulate Pana's players to play ball, now that he's in Paris with a bag"? Maybe offering some cakes or gas or ...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: ggl Date: 13-12-2006, 23:38	Netherlands is still fighting with 4 teams in spring for sure... and maybe also Heerenveen!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Ricardo Date: 14-12-2006, 08:11	Netherlands could meet its competitors: Ajax (+probably AZ) can meet Steaua, Benfica and Bremen + competitors for 8th place: Spartak and CSKA A pity Lille made it to CL, otherwise this would be a very French grouping: Lille&Bordeauc from CL and Auxerre, Lens, Nancy, PSG 2nd in their UC group (well 5 of 8 matches is already something)

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Ricardo Date: 14-12-2006, 09:16	Rapid's exit means Romania will have it a bit harder in their fight. On the other hand is also Frankfurt's exit not good news for Germany. And Ajax is now a candidate as opponent for Bremen, Steaua and Benfica. I think they are better than Zulte. Not good news for the one who draws them(and good news for the others!)

Author: OMfan
Date: 14-12-2006, 09:26

@Ricardo
Why a "pity Lille"
Auxerre and Lens are not Yet qualified even if they are in good pasition to do it.

rapid is out, so i' m more and more confident for the match between Romania and France for Ranking.
The knock out round will be very very interesting.Romania portugal and Germany are on the same line so if teams of these country are eliminated on the next round, it could be catastrophic for their country!Everything could happen germany and potugal could lose their places but could keep it too!!!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Ricardo Date: 14-12-2006, 10:01	a pity it is that now there won't be 6 French teams in the UC2 - CL3 ties. Also the German(Bremen), Portuguese(Benfica) and Romanian teams(Steau, Dinamo) are in this group: very interesting!!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: OMfan Date: 14-12-2006, 11:19	thanks for explanation ricardo

Author: edieseb
Date: 14-12-2006, 23:06

Bad week for Romania, not only because of Dinamo's loss and Rapid not qualifying for the next round (somewhat expected though), but also because of good results from Germany, Portugal and Netherlands. Congratulations to them and I'm in doubt about Romania's chances, looking at the possible draw: hard for Steaua and especially for Dinamo. Well, let's hope for a good draw and for a German-Portugal match.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: edieseb Date: 14-12-2006, 23:08	Not possible actually.

Author: moro
Date: 14-12-2006, 23:13

It's show time now, all teams involved could go down in KO stage. If Steaua take Sevilla and Dinamo any team except Spartak and AEK, we're over. I hope one of romanian teams pick some Maccabi/AEK and pass (even if that is not easy). First KO round will be deadly for a lot of teams from Portugal, Germany, Romania and Holland. Anything can happend, any country coul finish on 5-th at the end of the season! very exciting.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Maluyaca Date: 14-12-2006, 23:36	Standings at the winter-break 5 Germany 9.142 4.714 10.571 10.437 6.500 41.364 3/ 7 6 Portugal 10.750 10.250 8.166 5.500 5.916 40.582 3/ 6 7 Romania 2.166 4.333 5.500 16.833 11.333 40.165 2/ 3 Too soon to say something let's wait for the draw of tomorrow.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 14-12-2006, 23:36

On 8/12/06 badgerboy (that's me!) - discussing the unlikely prospect of Netherlands challenging for 6th wrote:

"At the moment realistically they appear right out of the race - but imagine this set of results...

Tottenham 1 Dinamo 0 (Dinamo 2nd)
Sevilla 1 AZ 1 (AZ win the group, Sevilla 2nd)
Braga 1 Grasshoppers 0 (Braga 3rd)
Heerenveen 1 Lens 0 (Heerenveen out)
Feyenoord 1 Wisla 0 (Feyenoord 3rd)
Zulte 0 Ajax 1 (Ajax 2nd)
PSG 1 Panathinaikos 0 (Rapid out)

That would give us:

Portugal 40.582 (3/6)
Romania 40.165 (2/3)
Netherlands 37.522 (4/7)"

It seems I slightly underestimated them. AZ also won - so 37.665.

Now let's see how close we get to the next bit (the draw):

"Then imagine...

PSV v Valencia 1-0 1-2 PSV on agg. 3 points & through.
Porto v Chelsea 0-1 0-1 Porto out - zero points
Werder Bremen v Dinamo Bucharest 1-0 1-0 - Dinamo out - zero points
Steaua v Sevilla 0-1 0-1 - Steaua out - zero points
Benfica v Ajax 0-1 0-1 - Ajax 4 points & through, Benfica out
Braga v AZ 0-1 0-1 - AZ 4 points & through, Braga out
Feyenoord v Rangers 1-0 1-0 - Feyenoord 4 points & through

Then we have:

Portugal 40.582 (finished)
Romania 40.165 (finished)
Netherlands 39.644 (4/7)"

Author: edieseb
Date: 14-12-2006, 23:48

@edieseb (that's me) asked you about the possibility of Netherlands grabing that 6th spot and that's why I asked in the first place.
It's a pretty big difference, hard, but also so probable, given a good/bad draw.
Looking at the "hypothetic situation" you name here, it's like a horror movie.
Well, Romania lived something like this roller coaster (but always going up) last year. And it was such a sweet ride. I hope our dutch friends won't have the pleasure

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: mavano Date: 14-12-2006, 23:48 Edited by: mavano at: 14-12-2006, 23:50	@badgerboy Where can I sign up for this! BTW Can AZ draw Braga? They were in the same group.... @edieseb I always wish my friends all the best. Don't you?

Author: izztupido
Date: 14-12-2006, 23:58
Edited by: izztupido
at: 15-12-2006, 00:01

Beside the fact that Braga cant play with Az, dream even more the following in the next stage of Cl and UC. Why didnt you dreamt this?:

Ajax-Sevilha 0-1; 0-1
AZ-Leverkusen 0-1; 0-1
PSV-Chelsea 0-1; 0-1
Feyenoord-Totenham 0-1; 0-1

So, thats the results after last 16 of UC and Last 8 of CL and final points for Portugal, Romania and Netherlands...

Let the draw come tomorrow, and the games take place in February, and then we will see...

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: mavano Date: 15-12-2006, 00:02 Edited by: mavano at: 15-12-2006, 00:03	Ajax can't play Sevilla. And if AZ beats Sevilla away from home. Somehow I can't imagine them losing to Leverkusen....... But you're right, let's wait for the draw.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 15-12-2006, 08:17

AZ did a very good (for Holland) thing by winning this group:
1. they earned coefficient points
2. They get -probably- an easier opponent from the UC-3rd group
3. They make Feyenoord not meet Sevilla(still other tough possibilties, but Sevilla was one of the toughest)
4. They let -probably- one of the Dutch competitors in ranking play against Sevilla(Spartak, CSKA, Benfica, Steaua, Bremen)

Nice match by the way yesterday H'veen-Lens, at least lots of attacking, but also lots of stupid misses - by both sides. Funny by the way that after the (finaly) 1-0 in the 90+1 minute, it was almost 2-0 in the 90+3 minute. That would have cause both to be out (OB in)!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 15-12-2006, 09:01	I can only tell you one thing: Steaua will almost certainly draw a spanish team (two years ago in KO stage Valencia then Villareal, last year Heerenv then Betis). Hope it will be Ossasuna. Dinamo should get Bordeaux or AEK. I guess. Hey, i won my 500 euro on groups winners (espanol, rangers, Blackburn, Parma). Congratulation me! I'll buy something nice to my wife!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: badgerboy Date: 15-12-2006, 12:00	"BTW Can AZ draw Braga? They were in the same group...." You're quite right. They can't. OK - let AZ play Zulte instead (if I haven't got them down to play someone else already!). Of course again this is not my prediction. Even I wouldn't try to predict a draw. I'll just be a little amused if I get anywhere close.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Maluyaca Date: 15-12-2006, 13:21	Is the one who will make the decision. Dinamo - Benfica. For the other teams of Romania and Portugal they were unlucky with Chelsea, Parma and Sevilla as opponents.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 15-12-2006, 14:26

I'm not sure Braga were that unlucky.

Everyone keeps going on about Parma but they are in the relegation zone in Italy. And they started the season without any point deductions!

Curses that they got a relatively soft draw because they probably will go through (and I'll probably drop points in the prediction game because I'll be tempted to say they wont!).

So far I lost points on them every week. Yesterday I went for them to win for the first time (on the basis they always use a fairly understrength team in UEFA so already being qualified shouldn't matter). And look what happened!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: daggy Date: 15-12-2006, 14:59	@badgerboy You are so right. Parma doesnt seem to be so well, though Uefa Cup and their league are different competitions. Braga is - for the first time in their history - UC's last 32, so they are now extra-motivated. And theyre not an easy team at all, theyre the only ones that beat Porto this year, in the league.

Author: izztupido
Date: 15-12-2006, 17:16

Dont underestimate Braga right away. Although portuguese teams, are 95% of the times beatem by italian ones, i think Braga hava a real chance to pass Parma. Parma is last but 1 in Serie A, and Braga is doing well in our domestic competition, for the last 4 years. What they acheived this year, is what they should done in the last couple of years (eliminated by Hearts and by D.Zagreb in the UC-QR), for my point of view.

I think this is perhaps very close to their real value, but i think they had a lucky draw. Parma, was probably their best chance.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: Overgame Date: 15-12-2006, 18:44	Many things can change before the two games. If Parma is still in danger before the game, they will play with a B-Team.

Author: Francisco
Date: 15-12-2006, 19:50

4 France 13.500 11.428 10.812 8.250 0.000 43.990 0
5 Romania 4.333 5.500 16.833 11.333 0.000 37.999 0
6 Germany 4.714 10.571 10.437 6.500 0.000 32.222 0
7 Russia 5.875 10.000 10.000 6.125 0.000 32.000 0
8 Netherlands 5.416 12.000 7.583 6.500 0.000 31.499 0
9 Portugal 10.250 8.166 5.500 5.916 0.000 29.832 0
10 Ukraine 4.875 8.100 5.750 5.500 0.000 24.225 0

I just consulted Bert's page for future rankings, and although this year 6th spot is still up for grabs, the truth is that next year I think Romania will WITHOUT a doubt be in 5th, then Germany, Russia and the Netherlands are very close of each other between 6th and 8th spots. And Portugal will clearly end up in 9th next year (Considering how we behave when we have 6 teams). I just have one doubt I think most know the answer: is 9th the first place with 4 teams per country or is it the last with 6?

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 15-12-2006, 20:21	First with four and last with champion automatically in CLGS.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: viulo Date: 16-12-2006, 00:21	Braga beat Chievo in round 1, and chievo seems better than parma

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: panda Date: 16-12-2006, 08:56	I think it's really hard to judge UC pf from league- all the Eng and scot sides have been far better in UC then league so far (though most have domestically recovered a bit)

Author: porto-1978
Date: 18-12-2006, 17:23

Francisco:
How can that be decided with one and a half (!) seasons to be played!!!! (?) There?s an advantage of Romania but nothing is clear by now.
You say "(Considering how we behave when we have 6 teams)." That?s totaly no sense! There?s no rule for that behaviour. Or are you talking about how Sporting behave? Yeah, considering that their clawn coach will remain and Sporting get a uefa place... we should be concerned.
Last year we had 1/6 clubs for spring; this season 3/6; next season 5/6 is perfectly possible... as well as 6/6 or 0/0. But there?s no rule about how we behave... Another time, it seems some clubs have rules such as playing good and loosing for CL and playing bad and loosing for UC...

Author: badgerboy
Date: 18-12-2006, 17:50

Going into the winter break this is still the most interesting coefficient battle of the year.

Given the draw & the unpredictablity of many of the UEFA Cup ties Germany aren't yet a safe bet for the top 6 - although they would obviously be pretty happy about the draw for the Romanian teams (especially Dinamo-Benfica).

From a German perspective I would actually say that - in the short term at least - a Dinamo victory would be favourable. Of course the German teams will hope to be able to help themselves but - given the draw - none of them can be totally confident about progressing to the next round.

Portugal have to make up 5 points on Germany right now. Given the draw & Braga's probable limitations Benfica look the most likely Portuguese team to score enough points to challenge Germany's position. If they go out I can't see Portugal getting more than 6 points (even if Braga progress against Parma I see them getting zero points in the following round) so Germany would surely be safe.

If - on the other hand - Benfica - eliminate Dinamo & go on to a very winnable looking last 16 match, Germany might still have to worry about the possibility of Steaua getting enough points to send Romania past them. I have little doubt Sevilla are among the best teams in the UEFA Cup - possibly the very best. Like some others though I do have doubts about their priorities for the season and they wouldn't have to be far off their game for Steaua to take advantage.

In short I have no strong opinion about how this one will turn out.

Tentatively I might say:

5. Germany
6. Portugal
7. Romania

but the absolute reverse isn't inconceivable & it certainly wouldn't need much imagination to see Portugal 5th (Werder out & Benfica through & I'd say that would become likely).

Oh and I haven't absolutely ruled out the Dutch yet - although the draw has been pretty unkind to their clubs also. Feyenoord & PSV need to improve to progress. AZ & Ajax look capable but both have very tough passages. They look like the type of ties they can win - but only narrowly. Four coefficient points per tie looks very unlikely & that's the type of scoring they need. Consolidating 8th this year & building a sound points base for the 6th place battle next year now looks a good result for them this year.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 18-12-2006, 18:01

Porto-1978 wrote:

"Francisco:
How can that be decided with one and a half (!) seasons to be played!!!! (?) There?s an advantage of Romania but nothing is clear by now."

I'm not going to get into the battle for all the different positions now but with regard to the Romania-Portugal battle alone Romania currently has a 49 point advantage.

That is - if Romania score absolutely zero points this year (possible) and next year (theoretically possible but extremely unlikely) Portugal (playing with six teams) must score 50 points to overtake them. Benfica especially may be capable of knocking some of these off this season but - bearing in mind Portugal only scored 49 points the year Porto won the CL - their points target next year is surely going to be extremely daunting.

Author: exile
Date: 18-12-2006, 18:02

My prediction spreadsheet now has

5. Portugal 42.915
6. Germany 42.221
7. Romania 40.832

Portugal

Benfica to reach UC QF
Porto - CL SF
Braga - UC R3

Germany

Leverkusen - UC R4
Bayern - CL R2
Bremen - UC R3

Romania

Steaua and Dinamo - both UC R3.

This is based on coefficients - using bookmakers' odds would probably be less favourable to Portugal, as Porto are not favourites against Chelsea.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 18-12-2006, 18:34	The most interresting and not-impossibles results for this topic would be: Werder in with 3p, Bayern and Bayer out (3 p together); Benfica and Braga in, Porto out; Steaua in with 2 or 3p, Dinamo out with 1 or 2p (Romania's total 4p). So Portugal (2 teams left) and Romania (1 team left) absolutely level (points, % teams in), Germany ahead +0.700 (less % team but very strong).

Author: Ricardo
Date: 19-12-2006, 09:59

I have the same calculations as exile, but indeed it is coefficients based, meaning that Porto will win from Chelsea, Feyenoord from Tottenham - things that I don't see happening as being the most likely outcome. Also Ajax has a higher coefficient as Werder. If I change the winner into Werder for this tie, Germany will have 1 point more and Netherlands 1 point less (Also Werder has a higher coefficent as CeltadV so will reach the Quarterfinals instead).

Author: badgerboy
Date: 19-12-2006, 12:04

Ricardo &/or Exile

Did you ever try running a results exercise based on a shorter time period (say three years)?

It would be interesting to do the two (normal coefficient - so five years & three years) and see which gave the most accurate results after the event.

Although I can also see why it's necessary for your predictions to use a set ranking for the whole season (I assume the team ranking at the end of last season) it's also interesting to see the differences if you use a bang up to date table - Chelsea now above Porto for example...

Author: exile
Date: 19-12-2006, 13:10

It's also possible to use Bookmaker's odds to decide matches and which team will progress from subsequent rounds.

On this basis:

5. Germany 43.793

(Werder - UC finalists,
Leverkusen - UC r3
Bayern - CL r2)

6. Portugal 42.915

Benfica - uc sf
Braga - uc r3
Porto - cl r2

7. Romania 40.832

Dinamo and Steaua - uc r3

(lower down, Rangers would now be predicted to reach UC qf, and thus easily secure 10th place for Scotland - but it has to be said this is because Bordeaux and Osasuna have been drawn against each other - I suspect that Rangers would not be head-to-head favourites against either of these teams)

and higher up - bookmakers' odds put England in 2nd place ahead of Italy, largely due to Chelsea and Spurs being rated more highly than coefficients would suggest.

Author: moro
Date: 19-12-2006, 18:27

Something strange is happenning in Bucarest: Dinamo just let two of their best players to go to Rapid Bucarest (forward Ganea and midfielder Munteanu)! It's a very good news for rapid mainly because of ganea, too bad he was not there in UCGS to score one more goal for this team, because that's exactly what Rapid did'nt have, a good forward. Now I bet they'll beat Steaua in the course for 2-nd spot for CL in Romania's ch-ship. Munteanu is not brightening, but he' s a good player, I found him a bit tired at the end of the season, although he's not like Speedy Gonzales but the opposite.

Why Dinamo sell Munteanu I dont care, they sayed selling Ganea because he's making a lot of noise but still, I think it's a stupid move. True, they have 13 or 15 points, I cannot count anymore, in front of the ch-ship, but... They had most productiv attack trio in Europe, now they are only two...
On the other hand, two good midfielders came to Dinamo and this is a good move.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 19-12-2006, 18:31	My fault, they didnt sell them, but free them, so that they went to Rapid.

Author: dinamo_fan_4_ever
Date: 19-12-2006, 22:31

the managers and chairman from dinamo keep surprising me, its a new tactic givingaway the goalgheterand another good player just because they dont "seem" ok. they sold 5-6 otherplayers that played really bad and were mostly on the bench but theese 2 (ganea & munteanu)were two of the best. lets hope that vranickovici and balace and whoever comes play as well as the oney the subtitued.

p.s.

to rapid fans, dont swear at theese players just because they come from dinamo, they dont deserve that, i hope they will help rapid qualify in europe next year

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 19-12-2006, 22:49	For me there's no doubt, with Ganea Rapid will be very very competitive and will take second spot in CL. Too bad Ganea wasnt there for UC GS ties.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: dinamo_fan_4_ever Date: 19-12-2006, 23:00	question to portuguese on this site : an article in romania said that nuno assis from benfica can be suspended because he failed a doping test, is it true? . and on the other hand will simao leave benfica this winter and go to atletico or liverpool ?

Author: moro
Date: 20-12-2006, 10:45

@Dinamo-fan
I think I know what's happenning at Dinamo and it's all good, except for Ganea's lost. The two midfielders Balace and Vranijkovic are very good players, looks like they will also take Karamian from Rapid, wich is the best left-side defender in Romania. Of course it will take 5-6 months to integrate them, but the title is in the pocket from now.
So Dinamo makes team for next year Champions League and dont care about Uefa Cup this year. This is not an excuse for an eventual and probable elimination.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: executor Date: 20-12-2006, 11:05	{i>to rapid fans, dont swear at theese players just because they come from dinamo{/i> You must have a very bad image of us This is pure mana, exactly what Rapid needed: a very good forward to go along with the very good defence & midfield. They will be welcomed here. And don't forget: Ganea already played for Rapid

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: OMfan Date: 20-12-2006, 12:02	I don't think romania will score a lot of point know.They're going to end with about 11.5 to 13 point this year.(good coef any way).

Author: dinamo_fan_4_ever
Date: 20-12-2006, 12:23

@ executor

i hope all rapid fans think the way you do

, and yes ganea is pure mana BUT there were 4 strikers at dinamo (including mendy - he played very little) but at rapid there are 6-7 striker all of aprox. same value (maybe axcept burdujan) and all of whom want to play 90 mins so that might be a problem for ganea

; on the other way, if karamian leaves (and comes to us i hope

) than munteanu would be surely a fist team plyer with no other players to compete on the left side

p.s.

i gt a bad impression obou rapid fans because i went in giulesti stadium once or twice and i almost got a serious beating

not to mention what my ears heard

@ OMfan

dinamo-benfica will determine the 6th position in rankings and i guess romanias coeff will be at least 12.000 even if both teams dont qualify

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 20-12-2006, 13:42	Funny but I think both teams Rapid and Dinamo will be better after those changes, Rapid will loose Karamian, but wins something that they were missing a lot - agood non-fat forward, while Dinamo could produce an incredible midfield, very strong left-side. Wich bring us back to 6-th place. A 13 coef could be enough for Romania to clinch 6-th spot, merci OM fan, Joyeux Noel à toi!

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: moro Date: 20-12-2006, 20:19	So, it's hollyday for moro, he's gonna ski (for the moment on green grass). I wish you all the best, a big hohoho and enough health to see a romanian team beating Batev Borisov 8-4 in CL final 2076. For our Portuguese friends all this plus lots of bikini's and a well-deserved 7-th place, just in front of germans panzers. And there's a big, arrogant, incredible Hihi.

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: OMfan Date: 21-12-2006, 09:30	Thanks Moro, Joyeux noël à toi aussi. Difficult for me to wait next round...February...Pfff

Re: The battle for 6 position (2)
Author: executor Date: 21-12-2006, 22:07	@moro It's BATE Borisov. Or maybe you foresee a name change @dinamo-fan-4-ever Hmmm...interesting...my ears never get "hurt" in Giulesti...perhaps you should change the stand

Author: 5UCLGSteams
Date: 21-12-2006, 23:56

@dinamofan

"gt a bad impression obou rapid fans because i went in giulesti stadium once or twice and i almost got a serious beating not to mention what my ears heard "

Actually i have been something around 10 times on Giulesti both at Rapid- Steaua games or Romania's international games and believe me fresh air is the most precious one also for your health no matter what kind of words you hear

Also great sonority and very good view of the game no matter where you stay.