Forum

xml	No replies possible in the archive

Author: edieseb
Date: 09-10-2006, 20:02

Yes, we know the groups now, we all try to see how many more points our favourite teams can squeeze. Given the fact that all 72 teams that are still in competition have a guaranteed number of 4 matches to play, we have the time and material to play a coefficient game based on all these matches.

So, 72 teams, 144 more matches in GS, 288 points to be gained. Who will take the biggest piece of the pie?

For us, we'll try to predict the exact coefficient for each country that still has participants in the 2 competitions. We do not include the bonus points for the teams that, eventually, will qualify to the last 16 of CL, but strictly the number of points that can be earned in the 4 matchdays left in GS of CL and the 5 matchdays of UC. That is, again, 288 points that we have to distribute to the 22 countries present in either of the 2 competitions.

The final ranking that we'll do at the end of the GS will be made by the difference in what the "predictors" estimate and the actual results, of course. Attention though, if somebody predicts a coefficient of 4.500 for England and France as well, but the actual result will be a coefficient of 4.750 for England and 4.250, that doesn't mean that it evens out, but actually that you are 0.250 off in your prediction for both countries, -0.500 total. This way, best result somebody can reach, if he or she guesses all the right coefficients, will be 0. I'm sure everybody understands it.
Think it well because the winner might get a good job from the compulsive betters out there.

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: edieseb Date: 09-10-2006, 20:09	My prediction: Spain 5.286 Italy 4.143 England 4.625 France 4.375 Germany 3.143 Portugal 2.167 Romania 4.333 Netherlands 3.286 Russia 1.000 Belgium 1.600 Ukraine 1.250 Scotland 1.750 Turkey 2.200 Bulgaria 0.000 (sorry guys) Czech Republic 2.000 Switzerland 2.200 Greece 1.000 Serbia 0.750 Austria 1.000 Denmark 0.750 Poland 0.500 Israel 1.500

Author: Aliceag
Date: 10-10-2006, 01:39

I found it very funny to do this exercise altough it took me a little work, as I calculated game by game.

Spain 5.857
Italy 4.714
England 4.250
France 3.500
Germany 2.286
Portugal 3.833
Romania 2.333
Netherlands 3.143
Russia 1.000
Belgium 2.000
Ukraine 0.750
Scotland 1.750
Turkey 2.600
Bulgaria 0.250
Czech Republic 2.250
Switzerland 1.200
Greece 1.833
Serbia 1.000
Austria 0.400
Denmark 1.000
Poland 0.500
Israel 2.000

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: edieseb Date: 11-10-2006, 19:19	Yeah, it takes a little bit of time to calculate, but I think it makes it more chalenging and fun for whoever loves numbers and probabilities than just a one match/matchday prediction that you just "spit it" in a second without actually giving it too much thought. I thought it's fun, but not too many thought alike yet.

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: antonio62tr Date: 12-10-2006, 08:47	It would be nice to preict but takes very very long time..if you have the document all countries with their matches at GS it will be helpful...

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: edieseb Date: 12-10-2006, 18:04	Unfortunatly I don't have it because I writing this on a telephone. But if anyone wants to help and do like an Excel document with this, you're welcome. Honestly, for me searching and putting the numbers together was part of the fun during the period/weeks we don't have any games and changes in the coefficient that might get our attention.

Author: Aliceag
Date: 12-10-2006, 19:00

This youngsters are just so lazy!! Go to the www.uefa.com page, there go to CL fixtures, and UC fixtures. Take a paper and just write down the countries:

Spain
Italy
England, etc

And then just look at fixtures and start thinking: Steaua-Lyon hummm 1 point to romania and 1 to france, Kiev-Madrid... hummm 2 points for spain... after all done you should have something like this

Spain 2 2 2 1 2 1 0 1 2
Italy 1 1 2 2 2 2 ..
Etc..

Then just add all, and divide by the number of teams. In half an hour you'll have all done.

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: edieseb Date: 15-10-2006, 15:43	Two more days to make your prediction if you want. Tuesday, when the matches start is the deadline for this.

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: saras21 Date: 16-10-2006, 17:25	Denmark 0.25 Poland 0.5 Israel 0.5

Author: badgerboy
Date: 17-10-2006, 13:49

Hmmm, not many people predict so not much of a game. But I like this kind of thing so...

Spain 5.428 (38 points)
England 4.625 (37 points)
France 4.500 (36 points)
Italy 4.000 (28 points)
Netherlands 3.571 (25 points)
Romania 3.333 (10 points)
Germany 3.000 (21 points)
Czech Rep. 2.500 (10 points)
Portugal 2.333 (14 points)
Turkey 2.200 (11 points)
Scotland 2.000 (8 points)
Ukraine 2.000 (8 points)
Greece 1.666 (10 points)
Russia 1.500 (6 points)
Belgium 1.200 (6 points)
Denmark 1.000 (4 points)
Israel 1.000 (4 points)
Austria 0.800 (4 points)
Serbia 0.750 (3 points)
Switzerland 0.600 (3 points)
Poland 0.500 (2 points)
Bulgaria 0.000 (0 points)

Should my predictions be 100% accurate (which of course they wont) this would leave the following ranking position going into the spring:

1. Spain 68.033 (7/7) (3 CL/4 UEFA)
2. Italy 62.517 (5/7) (3/2)
3. England 61.915 (7/8) (4/3)
4. France 52.406 (6/8) (2/4)
5. Germany 41.506 (4/7) (1/3)
6. Portugal 40.082 (2/6) (0/2)
7. Romania 39.831 (3/3) (0/3)
8. Netherlands 37.807 (5/7) (1/4)
9. Russia 35.625 (1/4) (1/0)
10. Ukraine 28.975 (1/4) (0/1)
11. Belgium 28.675
12. Scotland 28.500 (2/4) (1/1)
13. Turkey 27.041 (1/5) (0/1)
14. Czech Rep. 26.825 (2/4) (0/2)
15. Greece 24.997 (1/6) (0/1)
16. Bulgaria 24.582
17. Switzerland 24.050
18. Norway 19.725
19. Serbia 19.458
20. Austria 19.300 (1/5) (0/1)
21. Denmark 17.825
22. Poland 17.000
23. Israel 16.458

The ranking also excludes the bonus points.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 17-10-2006, 14:41

I'm not sure I distributed 288 points. I just counted team by team to see how many points they would get with their outstanding 4 matches.
I got:
Spain 6.143
Italy 4.286
England 5.125
France 4.375
Germany 2.857
Portugal 2.333
Romania 2.333
Netherlands 3.000
Russia 1.000
Belgium 2.000
Ukraine 0.500
Scotland 2.000
Turkey 1.000
Bulgaria 0.250
Czech Republic 2.000
Switzerland 1.000
Greece 1.500
Serbia 0.250
Austria 0.800
Denmark 0.750
Poland 0.250
Israel 1.250

Indeed fun to do

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: mabo Date: 17-10-2006, 17:45	My prediction: Spain 5.571 England 4.750 Italy 4.571 France 4.500 Germany 3.285 Romania 3.000 Netherlands 3.000 Scotland 2.500 Portugal 2.333 Czech Republic 2.000 Turkey 1.800 Belgium 1.600 Greece 1.333 Israel 1.250 Switzerland 1.200 Serbia 1.000 Russia 1.000 Ukraine 1.000 Austria 0.800 Denmark 0.750 Poland 0.750 Bulgaria 0.000

Author: edieseb
Date: 20-10-2006, 02:48

Matchday 1

1.500 England (very strong)
1.429 Italy (surpining for me)
1.143 Spain (Celta didn't play)
1.000 Scotland (spotless performance this week)
0.857 Netherlands (good week, Ajax didn't play)
0.714 Germany (another average week for them)
0.625 France (average as well, Lens and Nancy still to play M1)
0.600 Belgium (who would have thought Zulte would save their ass)
0.500 Russia and Israel (both of them a bit of a surprise)
0.333 Portugal, Romania and Greece (the first two lost ground against the germans, Dinamo still to play for Romania)
0.250 Czech Republic (Mlada can bring a bit more)
0.200 Switzerland (1 pt in 1 game is not bad, but it's divided by 5. Grasshopper stii to play)
0.000 a pretty long list, with Ukraine, Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, Austria, Denmark and Poland (dissapointing I think for every fan out there, with the exception of Partizan that didn't play)

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: EarlofBug Date: 21-10-2006, 03:01	Very good analysis edieseb. I hope you will keep this updated every matchday.

Author: edieseb
Date: 21-10-2006, 17:24

Thanks!...

On the other hand, looking at the numbers, I see that something's missing, and although it has nothing to do with the game in this topic, I decided to have also a classification based on points per games played. This mainly because, like I was saying, looking at the ranking in my last post and seeing Scotland for example somewhere in the middle, even after a great week of their only 2 teams in competition, just doesn't feel right. Than, because there is always 1 team in UC groups that doesn't play, it's like an incomplete ranking.
Of course, you can do all kinds of rankings, but I liked the ideea of points/game played as in the end every team of every country will play no more and no less than 4 games (since the start of this topic/game till the end of the GS)
So here it goes for this week:

2.000 Scotland
1.714 England
1.667 Italy
1.500 Netherlands
1.333 Spain
1.000 it seems to be the number of the day with: France, Germany, Russia, Belgium, Switzerland and Israel
0.667 Greece
0.500 Portugal, Romania and Czech Republic
0.000 Ukraine, Turkey, Bulgaria, Austria, Denmark and Poland
- Serbia with no game played yet

Author: edieseb
Date: 03-11-2006, 00:55

Matchday 2 (4 in CL)

1.250 England (the only country with consecutive over 1.000 weeks)
1.167 Portugal (excelent results, excelent week)
1.000 Romania (hard, but got back up there), Denmark (the other nice surprise of the week, apart from Portugal)
0.857 Italy (Parma didn't play) and Netherlands (steady going up, Feyernord didn't play)
0.833 Greece (very good week, but with 3 teams already out, it's hard to keep the pace with the giants)
0.750 France (again, with Auxerre and PSG not playing, decent week)
0.714 Spain (somewhat dissapointing, but we have to remember that Sevilla and Espanyol didn't play this week)
0.571 Germany (Leverkusen didn't play)
0.500 Scotland (at the end of the day it adds up, I think not bad)
0.400 Belgium (the wonder team saves them one more time)
0.250 Russia, Ukraine, Serbia and Israel (suffering)
0.000 Turkey (Fenerbahce didn't play), Switzerland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Austria and Poland (crying)

Total after the first 2 matchdays

2.750 England
2.286 Italy (1 extra game to play)
1.857 Spain (3 extra games)
1.714 Netherlands (2 extra games)
1.500 Portugal and Scotland
1.375 France (4 extra games)
1.333 Romania (1 extra game)
1.286 Germany (1 extra game)
1.167 Greece
1.000 Belgium and Denmark
0.750 Russia and Israel
0.250 Ukraine, Czech Republic (1 extra game) and Serbia (1 extra game)
0.200 Switzerland (1 extra game)
0.000 Turkey (1 extra game), Bulgaria, Austria and Poland

Pretty interesting, isn't it?...

Author: edieseb
Date: 03-11-2006, 01:10

Matchday 2 - Points / Game played

2.000 Denmark
1.750 Portugal
1.666 Greece
1.500 Netherlands
1.200 Italy and France
1.000 again, the number of the day with Spain, England, Germany, Romania, Scotland and Serbia
0.667 Belgium
0.500 Russia, Ukraine, Israel
0.000 Turkey, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Austria and Poland

And a total for the 2 matchdays:

1.500 Netherlands and Scotland
1.475 Italy
1.375 England
1.182 Spain
1.167 Greece
1.125 Portugal
1.100 France
1.000 Germany, Serbia, Denmark
0.833 Belgium
0.800 Romania
0.750 Russia and Israel
0.333 Switzerland
0.250 Ukraine
0.200 Czech Republic
0.000 Turkey, Bulgaria, Austria and Poland

This last statistic is very interesting I think. It shows how consistent (if that's the word - it was a discussion a couple weeks ago on the forum) every country is from one week to another. For example, I'm really surprised to see that Netherlands and Italy have better/more consistent results than England, even if the latter has a better coefficient and a general impression of getting better results. Spain it's not at it's best and Turkey surprises with no point in 5 games.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 03-11-2006, 01:56

Edieseb

I like your statistics a lot. Especially the coefficient points per matchday.

The points per games played bit is also an interesting variation: though I'm not absolutely sure about the "analysis".

"For example, I'm really surprised to see that Netherlands and Italy have better/more consistent results than England, even if the latter has a better coefficient and a general impression of getting better results".

Two matchdays is maybe a short period to make a judgment about "more consistent results". Especially when this is a snapshot taken partway through a season with countries having different numbers of teams in different competitions.

For example in the last two CL matchdays Italy definitely more consistent than England - though they do have one less team.

England P8 W4 D2 L2
Italy P6 W5 D1 L0

But in the UEFA Cup:

England P6 W6 D0 L0
Italy P5 W2 D1 L2

And throw in the first two CL matchdays:

England P8 W7 D1 L0
Italy P6 W2 D1 L3

and the picture looks different again.

I also don't think it's realistic to compare CL and UEFA Cup too much. The Dutch only have PSV in the CL so a 100% record in two games isn't stunning. Dutch teams are doing OK in the UEFA Cup:

P6 W3 D2 L1

A 75% success rate if you're talking about number of possible coefficient points achieved. Not bad but it's not 100%

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: edieseb Date: 03-11-2006, 02:13	My surprise came actually from a mistake, because I devided the 22 points earned by England by 16 games played when, in fact there were only 14 games. So, the correct points/games played for england: 1.571

Author: badgerboy
Date: 03-11-2006, 02:14
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 03-11-2006, 02:15

Actually Edieseb it looks like you made some mistakes with your numbers in any case.

Edit: It seems you found this too while I was typing.

England this matchday points per game played 10/7 = 1.428 - not 1.000.

Overall 22/14 = 1.571.

Italy this matchday 6/5 = 1.200.
Overall 16/11 = 1.454

Overall including the first two CL matchdays - just because I want to confirm superiority over Italy

England 37/22 = 1.681
Italy 21/17 = 1.235

Author: edieseb
Date: 03-11-2006, 02:26

Sorry, there might be some more mistakes because I'm trying to work on different sheeets and I was rushing to put the "statistics" soon after the games were over. Hopefully, peopel from different countries will notice when their coutry was deprived of precious points and make that known here. It's a fun thing to do and I would love to create a system taking into consideration the entire competition and not truncate (if there's a word like this) only part of it. At that point though there's a problem because of the unequal number of games played by different teams from different countries.
For example you could consider the 2 games in R1 of UC as M1 and M2 syncronized with CL GS. But what do you do with the countries that have teams that exit the competition? The idea of this game and later on of these statistics started from the equal number of games that the teams will have to play (4) so no surprises. It gives you an array of data/info to work with.
If any ideas to create a similar game next year, but taking into account a higher number of games and a bigger part of the competition, you're welcome to post it here.

Author: edieseb
Date: 03-11-2006, 02:54
Edited by: edieseb
at: 03-11-2006, 02:56

Ok, let's try one more time...
Points / Games Played - Total

2.000 Denmark
1.750 Portugal
1.667 Greece
1.500 Netherlands
1.429 England
1.200 Italy, France
1.000 Spain, Germany, Romania, Scotland, Serbia
0.667 Belgium
0.500 Russia, Ukraine, Israel
0.000 Turkey, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Austria, Poland

And total after 2 MD:

1.571 England
1.500 Netherlands, Scotland
1.455 Italy
1.182 Spain
1.167 Greece
1.125 Portugal
1.100 France
1.000 Germany, Serbia, Denmark
0.833 Belgium
0.800 Romania
0.750 Russia, Israel
0.333 Switzerland
0.250 Ukraine
0.200 Czech Republic
0.000 Turkey, Bulgaria, Austria, Poland

I guess it makes more sense now... Oh, I love Excel

Re: Coefficient Prediction Game
Author: panda Date: 03-11-2006, 11:25	Yeah- that makes sense, because although bert's running totlas cover the whole of the season, there's still going to be an approximate relation between where countries are on this year's co-eff and where they rank in the list.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 03-11-2006, 13:12

Edieseb wrote:

"The idea of this game and later on of these statistics started from the equal number of games that the teams will have to play (4) so no surprises. It gives you an array of data/info to work with".

I see the idea. I know on one of your earlier posts you spoke of all the teams having played the same number of games by the end. My only query with this is that the number of games per country is going to vary a lot. It ought to be a lot easier for two Scottish teams to be fairly consistent over 8 matches when compared to seven English clubs over 28.

I do find the pure figures very interesting though. Especially since from Bert's website I gleaned that your method was pretty much the way UEFA worked out team cooefficients until 1998. I like the idea of seeing what the team ranking would be for the past five years using this method.

I think I started looking at some stats for individual seasons a while back and found that teams doing very badly in a group stage threw up some fairly horrendous anomalies when you compared them to say first round losers in the UEFA Cup after one win & one defeat.
I guess the new competition formats were why UEFA had to change their methods in the first place.

Author: edieseb
Date: 23-11-2006, 23:23

Spain 1.286 (Ossasuna didn't play)
England 1.125
Romania 1.000
Czech Republic 1.000
Israel 1.000
France 0.875
Ukraine 0.750
Scotland 0.750
Portugal 0.667
Italy 0.571 (Livorno didn't play)
Germany 0.429 (Eintracht didn't play)
Belgium 0.400
Turkey 0.400 (Besiktas didn't play)
Greece 0.333 (Panathinaikos didn't play)
Netherlands 0.286 (AZ didn't play)
Russia 0.250
Denmark 0.250
Switzerland 0.200
Bulgaria 0.000
Serbia 0.000
Austria 0.000 (Austria Wien didn't play)
Poland 0.000 (Wisla didn't play)

A lot of teams under expectations, but I would like to notice especially Italy, Germany, Romania and Netherlands especially. Finally a good week for Spain, consistent english performance, Ukraine, Scotland, Czech Republic and Israel better than previous weeks (except Scotland)

For the 3 matchdays combined:

England 3.875
Spain 3.143 (4 games behind in UC)
Italy 2.857 (2 games behind)
Romania 2.333 (1 game behind)
France 2.250 (4 games behind)
Scotland 2.250
Portugal 2.167
Netherlands 2.000 (3 games behind)
Israel 1.750
Germany 1.714 (2 games behind)
Greece 1.500 (1 game behind)
Belgium 1.400
Czech Republic 1.250 (1 game behind)
Denmark 1.250
Russia 1.000
Ukraine 1.000
Turkey 0.400 (2 games behind)
Switzerland 0.400 (1 game behind)
Serbia 0.250 (1 game behind)
Bulgaria 0.000
Austria 0.000 (1 game behind)
Poland 0.000 (1 game behind)

Author: edieseb
Date: 23-11-2006, 23:33

Matchday 3 - Points per game:

2.000 Israel
1.500 Spain, Ukraine, Scotland
1.333 Czech Republic
1.286 England
1.000 France, Portugal, Romania, Turkey, Greece
0.800 Italy
0.750 Germany
0.667 Belgium
0.500 Netherlands, Russia, Switzerland, Denmark
0.000 Bulgaria, Serbia
- Austria, Poland (didn't play any games)

Total after 3 weeks - Points per game:

1.500 Scotland
1.476 England
1.294 Spain
1.250 Italy
1.167 Netherlands, Israel
1.125 Greece
1.083 Portugal
1.059 France
0.923 Germany
0.875 Romania
0.833 Denmark
0.778 Belgium
0.667 Russia, Ukraine
0.625 Czech Republic
0.500 Serbia
0.400 Switzerland
0.286 Turkey
0.000 Bulgaria, Austria, Poland

Author: edieseb
Date: 01-12-2006, 04:54

Ok, we're getting close to an end to this game.
We have the results for Matchday 4 of UC so the numbers a bit lower than in the previous weeks, still it all counts at the end.

So, here are the coefficients achieved this week:

1.143 Spain (amazing, spotless week)
1.000 Romania and the Czech Republic (good job for both)
0.625 France (the usual for France, good but nothing exceptional)
0.500 Poland (finally, we were waiting for them)
0.429 Italy (who would have thought at the begining that Parma will have such a contribution?)
0.400 Turkey
0.250 Israel
0.167 Greece
0.143 Germany (God, no)
0.143 Netherlands (and God, no again)
0.125 England
0.000 Portugal, Russia, Belgium, Ukraine, Scotland, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Serbia, Austria, Denmark (long list but in fact only Switzerland, Serbia, Austria and Denmark played this week)

Total since the beginning of the game:

4.286 Spain (well, they got up there, don't you just love them?)
4.000 England (Newcastle won't play in the last matchday)
3.333 Romania (Rapid won't play)
3.286 Italy
2.875 France
2.250 Scotland, Czech Republic (Slovan and Sparta won't play here)
2.167 Portugal
2.143 Netherlands
2.000 Israel (Maccabi stays)
1.857 Germany
1.667 Greece
1.400 Belgium (Brugge won't play)
1.250 Denmark (Odense won't play either)
1.000 Russia, Ukraine (so much alike these 2 countries)
0.800 Turkey
0.500 Poland
0.400 Switzerland (Basel stays)
0.250 Serbia
0.000 Bulgaria, Austria

Author: edieseb
Date: 01-12-2006, 05:13

Matchday 4 - Points per game:

2.000 Spain and Poland
1.500 Italy, Romania
1.333 Czech Republic
1.250 France
1.000 England, Turkey, Greece, Israel
0.500 Germany
0.333 Netherlands
0.000 Belgium, Switzerland, Serbia, Austria and Denmark
- Portugal, Russia, Ukraine, Scotland and Bulgaria did not play

And total:

1.500 Scotland (very good run from the Scots)
1.455 England
1.429 Spain
1.278 Italy
1.143 Israel
1.111 Greece
1.095 France
1.083 Portugal
1.000 Romania, Netherlands
0.867 Germany
0.818 Czech Republic
0.714 Denmark
0.700 Belgium
0.667 Russia, Ukraine, Poland
0.444 Turkey
0.333 Serbia
0.286 Switzerland
0.000 Bulgaria, Austria

Just a few personal thoughts on this last statistic:
- pleased to see "new blood" with Scotland, Israel and Greece performing very well
- Germany cannot keep even an "above the water level" (1 point/game); it's bad, really bad and sorry for all the german fans
- Romania and Netherlands tied at 1 p/g, with Romania with 1 team in CL and 2 in UC and Netherlands also with 1 team in UC but 4 teams in the UC (it's a question mark for the dutch posters on this forum who were not so understanding of the romanian coefficient saying that in UC it's piece of cake to gain points)
- again, I personally see a big resemblance between the russian and ukrainian performance. It's just odd to see this week after week
- I was expecting more from Turkey, Switzerland and Austria (maybe Turkey will turn things around but it's very, very hard)

Excited to see next week's results and the results of our game. Anybody has any idea who's leading now?