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Author: panda
Date: 03-10-2006, 14:20

I made this point but as I did so, the topic was deleted; it is a general point, so I start it on another topic.

the UC GS fixture order is fixed between the pots.

BUT, as we know, the real current strength of a team is not nevcessarily reflected by its coeff.

Therefore, whether your H / A distribution and the order of your fixtures falls favourably or not is another variable you cannot predict before the draw is made.

E.g. in this case, doctor said - many people are saying Spurs are the team to beat, but dinamo get them at the best possible time.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 03-10-2006, 17:20

I think with any draw where you don't play the same teams home & away there is an element of "luck" about how the fixtures drop & I agree this has to be an "unknown" factor before the draw.

It's also fairly much a mystery how exactly teams get moved around within the groups after the draw. Of course I realise why. So "cold" country teams avoid playing at home in December & teams from the same countries play home/away on alternate dates as far as possible but following the "logic" of the changes is far from straightforward.

Personally I think Tottenham have gotten a "raw deal" from their enforced movement in Group B. Had they stayed in position 5 (E) all their fixtures would've been reversed. Not that important for Dinamo & Besiktas (either toughest away) but I think having Leverkusen at home & then Brugge away would've been a much better schedule.

Blackburn's movement only affects their fixture order. Newcastle still play Fenerbahce at home (the only fixture in a tough group where I'd consider home or away a big factor.

Without a ball being kicked I'd suggest Group C is a good example of the potential "injustice" of the current format. Sevilla & AZ big favourites to progress. Braga get a good deal - those two away & their two opponents for 3rd at home. Slovan Liberec get moderate luck - at least one home tie they would hope to win (Grasshoppers). Grasshoppers draw the shortest straw - both home matches against their toughest group opponents.

Author: panda
Date: 03-10-2006, 17:27

@badgerboy

Good point you make, ANY assymetrical draw system leads to ....well, assymetries. On the other hand, makes things more exciting....maybe.

as we saw with Boro last year, any EPL club that is going to have a good run in Europe must think it is at least capable of beating any other UC contender. So overall, things are no worse than they might be.

I think UC GS draws also look scary because in a normal KO tie, you only have to think about one opponent at once, and in CL GS, english clubs get seeded high.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 04-10-2006, 10:42

I typed a better reply to this yesterday - the one that got lost in the ether & prompted my "technical problems" post.

However, essentially I agree with Panda that - for the English clubs - the fixture list can seem "kind" or "unkind" but it shouldn't be critical. Over four matches they ought to be good enough to progress & if not the draw is no excuse.

I think it could be more critical for more "borderline" teams though.

I fully realise pots arent everything. Especially this year the strength of teams within pots varies greatly & Pot E looks unusually strong. That said I found one stat from last year particularly interesting.

In all games between Pot 4 & 5 teams the home team always won. In only two cases was the fixture reversed so that the Pot 5 team played at home. These were the only two groups from which the Pot 5 team progressed & in both cases the Pot 4 team went home with "nil points".

Author: toonarmy
Date: 04-10-2006, 11:33

Do we know whether TV coverage played a part in the UEFA draw? I was disgusted that it determined a large part of the draw for the Champions League group draw. When they say games of teams from the same country should not clash, is this for TV? because I can see no logical reason why teams that are over 200Km apart cannot play on the same night. This draw has left me totally confused, is there an official explanation anywhere from UEFA on why these fixtures are so.?

Author: badgerboy
Date: 04-10-2006, 13:01

Toonarmy

There's been a fair bit of discussion on this on both the "Your groups in UEFA Cup" and "how it's possible?" threads.

I think Ricardo sums up the "rules" as we know them pretty well on his last post in the second of those threads. .

As to EXACTLY how the fixtures get rearranged - without knowing the precise order in which UEFA makes any changes it's impossible to say.

I did try following the draw from start to finish making the assumption that the computer tries to stick to the ABCDE sequence in order of groups & only goes back to alter an earlier group when necessary.

For example in the initial sequence no problems occur in any group until you get to Group D. Once you get there if A, B and C remain as they are then Lens must be in position C or D, Heerenveen position D or E, Osasuna C or D and Odense C, D or E. This is clearly impossible as one of these four teams must take position B.

For Group A to remain in sequence, Lens has to move from position B. The first available spot is C and the most straightforward solution is to swap Lens with Heerenveen. As a result of Heerenveen moving to position B, AZ has to move to spot D or E in Group C. D is the first available so they take that.

So, I think I see the "basics" but once you get to 6, 7 & 8 groups & the effect one has on past groups I think it's necessary to know the exact order I which changes are applied. I didn't get there yet!