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Author: AS
Date: 02-10-2006, 12:28
Edited by: AS
at: 02-10-2006, 12:30 | Qualified by Intertoto
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| Targhet: | Pt: | Diff: | N:| Effect:| %: | State: | Final:
------------|----------|-----|--------|---|--------|--------|----------|-------
Newcastle-ENG- | 12,697 | 5,5 | -7,197 | 8 | -0,900 | -7,1% | not out |
Auxerre-FRA- | 10,156 | 6,0 | -4,156 | 8 | -0,520 | -5,1% | not out |
Marseille-FRA- | 10,156 | 3,0 | -7,156 | 8 | -0,895 | -8,8% | out |
Hertha-GER- | 9,673 | 2,0 | -7,673 | 7 | -1,096 | -11,3% | out |
Twente-NED- | 8,266 | 0,5 | -7,766 | 7 | -1,109 | -13,4% | out |
Kayserispor-TUR- | 5,233 | 2,5 | -2,733 | 5 | -0,547 | -10,4% | out |
Grasshoppers Zu-SUI- | 5,175 | 5,5 | 0,325 | 5 | +0,065 | 1,3% | not out |
Ried-AUT- | 4,075 | 0,5 | -3,575 | 5 | -0,715 | -17,5% | out |
Odense B.-DEN- | 3,390 | 5,0 | 1,610 | 4 | +0,403 | 11,9% | not out |
Achnas-CYP- | 2,033 | 2,0 | -0,033 | 4 | -0,008 | -0,4% | out | + 5,0%
Maribor-SLO- | 2,033 | 0,5 | -1,533 | 4 | -0,383 | -18,9% | out | - 16,7%
Qualified by Fair Play:
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| Targhet: | Pt: | Diff: | N:| Effect:| %: | State: | Final:
------------|----------|-----|--------|---|--------|--------|----------|-------
KSV Roeselare-BEL- | 6,050 | 3,0 | -3,050 | 5 | -0,610 | -10,1% | out |
Brann Bergen-NOR- | 4,195 | 3,0 | -1,195 | 5 | -0,239 | -5,7% | out | + 14,3%
Gefle IF-SWE- | 2,650 | 0,5 | -2,150 | 4 | -0,538 | -20,3% | out | - 15,6%
Stands:
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Targhet: Means the points needed to not alter the national coefficient. It is calculated like
the average of national coefficient from season 2001-02 to 2005-06 (last five). To the
end of the season the effect have to be re-calculated by current coefficient. It is
only a value to monitoring effects during the season.
Pt: Points. The total number of points get by the team during the season.
Diff: Difference between "Targhet" and "Pt".
N: Number of teams from the same association.
Effect: Current effect on rank. It is calculated like {{ "Diff"/"N" >>
%: Current effect on rank in percentage. It is calculated like {{ 100*"Effect"/"Targhet" >>.
State: Show if the team is still in European competitions or not.
Final: Final effect on rank by current season results by all teams of the same association.
Only for association out by European competitions. |
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Author: AS
Date: 02-10-2006, 12:49
| I’m going on with my monitoring on effects by extra entry on country rank. Data are updated to the UEFA Cup Round 1. It is hard to give a general interpretation. First thing I have seeing is that for Norway and Cyprus – two association out from UEFA competitions with teams not playing well – the extra entry produced a good effect even if I didn’t supposed it. Second, only 4 teams of 13 are still not out. Third Grasshoppers and Odense B. are improving respect the target.
So the questions is: can this new format have a not attended good effect on country rank when their team play well? |
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Author: panda
Date: 02-10-2006, 14:07
| Keep going AS! This topic fascinates me. |
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Author: Auke
Date: 02-10-2006, 16:47
Edited by: Auke
at: 02-10-2006, 16:54 | I also think this is interesting, but I don't totally agree with the way you calculate this.
The basis of your calculation for the teams that are still in the race is the number of points they have scored until now, and that is compared to the number of points the country should get in the entire season. So these percentages are the worst-case scenario for the team in question (no more points) and a normal scenario for the rest of the teams. Comparing the worst for these teams with normal for the rest of the teams is not really fair. For example Newcaste United has scored 5.5 points so far, the average of the England teams so far is just below 5.5. So at this point Newcastle is not influencing Englands score in a negative way. Auxerre scored 5 points while the average of French teams is 4.25, so at this point Auxerre is in fact contributing in a positive way.
I understand that you want to know how the extra teams have influenced the ranking at the end of the season. But you can't calculate that now, during the season. This is the same like saying that it didn't help England so far to let their champion play in the Champions League because Chelsea (7 points) didn't yet reach the score (12.7) England needs....In fact almost all teams are influencing their country's ranking in a negative way if you calculate it like this!
Also, your assumption of a normal season for the rest of the teams by using a target is rather strange. In your calculation Auxerre influences the ranking with -5%. But if all French teams lose all their next matches, you would still say that Auxerre has influenced the French ranking negatively, even at the end of the season. While their score of 5 would be above the french average! So comparing to a target will never get you to the right figures! Not now, and not in the end of the season. This way you will be comparing to a target the whole season, and in the end you will see that your targets were wrong and you calculated wrong figures the whole season. In you final and most interesting calculation you would have to change the way you calculate...Rather strange, isn't it?
So why don't you make a calculation that is based only on the scores until now: scores from the teams until now and scores from the country's until now, and calculate the influence based on that. If you do that until the end of the season, you will get the right figures in the end, and a much more fair comparison during the season. |
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Author: panda
Date: 02-10-2006, 17:18
| In previous discussions, many variables were pointed out, e.g.
1) in some countries, one or two teams are used to getting most of the points e.g. Scotland- Celtic and Rangers, so hopw well the IT team does may not matter a lot.
2) if the IT team does better than the WORST-performing team of the country, it's already doing something
3) the full picture is not known till all teams from one country are out, and the full, full picture (=did the IT/Fp team influence the final country RANKING for its country) is not known until the end of the season
But for me, however we do the 'real-time' calculation as the season progresses, the only key thing is to keep the raw stats (how are these 14 teams doing?); then we can play with the stats as we go along in many ways. This is why I say 'Go AS!' |
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Author: cska
Date: 02-10-2006, 17:33
| @AS
There is a much simpler method to check if a team playing through IT or FP changes the national co-eff in upward or downward direction.
You can simply check how many points that team earned for its country and then you may just see the total co-eff (not points, but co-eff) earned by that country for this season.
Example: If X has now let's say 3,500 pts for this season and Team A has earned 4 pts for the country, then this team earned more than the average for the other teams and IT/FP has positive impact. If Team A earned only 3 pts, then it underperformed compared to the other teams from country X. Note that by definition national co-efficient is an AVERAGE of all team points from a respective country.
So, just compare team A to the national co-eff and you know whether the team is above, below or at the target level. |
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Author: panda
Date: 02-10-2006, 17:52
| Yes, true, and great simplification using the bert real-time chart. I'll certainly be looking frequently.
However, AS explained (I hope I don't speak out of turn) his current plan is to use last year's country co-eff as a kind of target the teasm are aiming for this year, so we see how close the IT/FP teasm are getting. |
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Author: cinebelul
Date: 02-10-2006, 18:35
| I think nobody cares about this coeff. class.
Everyone is happy to play european cups (I mean here the smaller teams reaching the competition by FP or IT), and a happy solution for teams which had a bad season (Auxerre, Marseille or Hertha).
This calculations aren"t important. I mean nobody will stay at home refusing a place in UC (even if only one round), for not damaging the own country ranking... |
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Author: panda
Date: 02-10-2006, 19:01
| Again, I agree - in terms of the self-interest of teams and the development of football, it is better to play than not play.
But here on this forum, WE care! In the sense it is interesting to see how criterion B, which is different from the main criterion of selecting teams (the usual CL and UC qualifying process) changes the final results....or doesn't. |
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Author: moro
Date: 02-10-2006, 19:12
| I also believe that, if you have let's say 6 kids, but only one jacket, it's cruel to say to the last one: "Hey, you little mf, you'll not ware your brother's jacket because you'll ruine-it! So you'll stay home, until x-age".
Papa should ask the big brother to work harder, so they can buy another jacket, or repair the old-one, ruined by little mf. |
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Author: panda
Date: 02-10-2006, 19:25
| I am not disagreeing with anyone here - after all, we know that experience in europe is a big help to performing well- as theoretically strong team with no Euro experience often underperforms, so it's in the overall interest to get more teams in.
I am just following -like- a particular phenomenon- does the new IT system mean more 'poorly-performing' teams are getting in OR (as with Newcastle or Auxerre) are we getting teams in that can rescue themselves and help their country.
Note- some theoretically big teams already fell out on the IT journey e.g. OM, Hertha (is that right, they are IT) and of course Villareal. That is in itself very interesting. |
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Author: doctor
Date: 02-10-2006, 20:24
| While some countrys must suffer from the team in IT ,Portugal is on the beach protecting their coeficient |
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Author: Auke
Date: 02-10-2006, 22:52
| @ AS
"It is hard to give a general interpretation. First thing I have seeing is that for Norway and Cyprus – two association out from UEFA competitions with teams not playing well – the extra entry produced a good effect even if I didn’t supposed it"
"Even if i didn't supposed it": This is not really the kind of conclusions you should be aiming at when you make such a list: this is only proving that your assumptions were not right and that using targets is not working. This will go on through the season, everybody knows that trying to predict the scores of country's is pretty hard...
I think conclusions at this point should be like this:
- Newcastle is still in and at this point keeping up with the average of the english clubs and is not doing any harm to the country ranking
- Auxerre is still in and has until now improved the french country ranking by scoring higher than the average of the french clubs
- Marseille is out and already lower than the french average and is harming the french coefficient already at this early point in the season
- For Hertha, Twente, Ried, Maribor and Gefle the same as for Marseille: they are out and already damaging their country's coefficient
- Kayserispor and Roeselare are out but more or less still on the average of their country. A possible negative influence on their country's coeffcient is depending on the prestations of the other clubs
- Grasshoppers and Odense are still in and at this point positively contributing to their country's coefficients. This can still change, when they go out quickly and other teams from their country's get far. That way they can still get under the average, although it doesn't seem likely to happen
- Achna and Bran Bergen are out and certainly have contributed positively to their country's coefficients |
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Author: Auke
Date: 02-10-2006, 23:07
Edited by: Auke
at: 02-10-2006, 23:08 | @ panda
I think another consequence of letting in those (whether or not poorly-performing) teams is that small country's will get less points. For example Newcastle has until now beaten teams from Latvia and Estonia. Auxerre has beaten teams from Serbia and Croatia. Those, or other teams from lower ranked countries, otherwise might have scored more points.
So next to the almost inevitable consequence that letting in bad teams from high ranked countries is damaging the coefficients of these high ranked countries, this could also damage the scores of lower ranked countries. The bad teams from high ranked countries don't get far enough to positively contribute to their country, but far enough to eliminate a couple of teams from lower ranked countries. Also they prevent a couple of teams from getting into the cup because these IT-teams do take places which otherwise would have been filled with other teams. |
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Author: Ricardo
Date: 03-10-2006, 07:55
| I agree that it doesn't matter to teams very much if an extra team hurts the coefficient. Though besides us, there might be some interest from Uefa or domestic FA's in this: if they get hurt by this they might want to change the rules! |
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