Forum

xml	No replies possible in the archive

Author: edieseb
Date: 06-09-2006, 20:52

Here it is: one more method to crunch the numbers, to try to predict the results and to see who are the under-performers or the over-performers of this year's Group Stage of the CL.
I build my predictions on the current coefficients, but in trying a more accurate estimation of the current form of each team, I use the system sean on this forum before, system that puts emphasys more on the results of a team in the recent years and less on the earlier years of the calculation: the coeff will be (Y1*1+Y2*2+Y3*3+Y4*4+Y5*5)/3. So, the new coefficients of the teams are:
AC Milan 131.086
Barcelona 126.509
Arsenal 113.117
Inter 112.086
Liverpool 105.784
Real M. 104.509
Lyon 102.288
M. United 87.117
Chelsea 85.838
PSV 84.712
Valencia 81.509
Porto 80.396
Bayern 78.775
Roma 73.753
Steaua 66.540
Benfica 64.729
Lille 60.955
CSKA Moskow 57.225
Sporting 56.063
Werder 53.775
Celtic 48.768
Olympiakos 45.736
Levski 44.346
Shakhtar 43.334
Bordeaux 40.621
Hamburger 39.109
Anderlecht 36.816
Dinamo Kiev 36.334
AEK Athens 28.736
Galatasaray 24.021
Spartak 21.559
Kobenhaven 12.514

Nothing new up until here. We've seen these number before.
Top team: 131.086, lowest coefficient: 12.514.
Average coefficient, if we add them up and divide by 32 will be 67.146

Author: cska
Date: 06-09-2006, 21:16

@edieseb
Look at the other threads and you will see the same method proposed for country coefficients. Only the division by 3 is eliminated there, but this does not make a difference to your idea.
If you want to check the recent and current form and performance of a team, you even don't need to use seasons of 5, 4 and even 3 years ago. However, the current UEFA system takes account on general achievements in the last 5 years and eliminates the factor of one extremely successful or unsuccessful season.

Author: edieseb
Date: 06-09-2006, 22:23

After this I put the teams in 5 different groups:
- with a rating of 1, the teams on the bottom 40 percent of the coefficients in between the average and the lowest: 12.514 to 34.367
- with a rating of 2, the teams of the following 40 percent: 34.367 to 56.220
- with a rating of 3, the top 20 percent coefficients below the average and the bottom 20 percent of the coefficients above the average: 56.220 to 79.934
- the next 40 percent coefficients give the corresponding teams a rating of 4. So, teams between 79.934 and 105.510
- with a rating of 5, the teams with a coefficient of over 105.510 or the top 40 percent of the coefficients above the average.

In addition to this, I have given each home team of a matchday an extra 2 points to thei rating (the real possibility of a weak home team of being equal to a mediocre team or beating anothe weak team, or the chance of a mediocre team to beat (less chances) or draw against a top team.

Taking group A just as an example:

Chelsea(6) wins against Werder(2), Barcelona(5) and Levski(2) at home, but the same Chelsea, away, with a rating of 4 loses against Barcelona(7) and draws against Werder(4) and Levski(4).
Barcelona wins everything but their game in London where Chelsea has a higher rating because of the 2 points as the home team.
Werder(4) wins at home against Levski(2) and draws against Chelsea (4). The same with Levski(4) who, at home wins against Werder(2 this time as the away team) and draws against Chelsea.

After matchday 6 we have on the 1st place Barcelona with 15 points, then Chelsea with 11 pts and then Levski and Werder with 4 points each.

With the same method we'll find this ranking in each group:
GROUP B: Internazionale(5) 16 pts, Bayern(3) 8 pts, Sporting(2) 6 pts and Spartak(1) 4 pts.
GROUP C: Liverpool(5) 15 pts, PSV(4) 13 pts, Bordeaux(2) 4 pts and Gatasaray(1) 3 pts
GROUP D: Valencia(4) 11 pts, Roma(3) 9 pts, Shakhtar(2) and Olympiakos(2) 7 pts each.
GROUP E: Real(4) 10 pts, Lyon(4) 10 pts, Steaua(3) 9 pts and Kiev(2) 5 pts.
GROUP F: Manchester(4) 13 pts, Benfica(3) 10 pts, Celtic(2) 7 pts and Kobenhaven(1) 4 pts
GROUP G: Arsenal(5) 13 pts, Porto(4) 10 pts, CSKA(3) 7 pts, Hamburg(2) 4 pts
GROUP H: Milan(5) 16 pts, Lille(3) 8 pts, Anderlecht(2) 6 pts and AEK(1) 4 pts

Re: CL Group Stage - over and under-performers
Author: edieseb Date: 06-09-2006, 22:32	We see that Milan, with 16 points it's expected to dominate their group, a thing that's been said ot this forum many times since the draw. But will they gather as many as 16 pts? Or will they be underperformers? Who do you think will be the under-performers and the overperformers of this year GS based on this method?

Author: edieseb
Date: 06-09-2006, 22:43

I personally think that the most probable under-performer will be Milan (not because they don't have a top-class team, but because even a game with less concentration, after having qualified already will mean not getting the expected 16 pts), Porto, Steaua and Liverpool (these 3 because the coefficient of their opponents lower ranked doesn't necessarily reflect the value of these teams: hard to believe Porto will get 10 pts in a group with Arsenal, CSKA and Hamburger, even if the coefficient of the last 2 is way smaller).
The over-performing teams in my oppinion: Hamburger, Werder and Galatasaray

Author: mioke
Date: 07-09-2006, 10:08
Edited by: mioke
at: 07-09-2006, 10:16

Even it's unlikely, I think Steaua could get 10 points in group E. They can beat Dynamo Kiev twice( Dynamo is a good team, but it's not impossible to beat them), Real Madrid at home(remember Rosenborg and Olympiakos last year, Real didn't make such a good impression with them, in fact they didn't impress anybody last year) and could get a point either at home with Lyon, either away, if Lyon should qualify ahead of it's last game(with Steaua). Unlikely, but not imposible. Porto won Uefa Cup and the next year the UCL, Steaua reached the semifinals last year, why not advance from the GS this year?
Regarding the other groups, I think CSKA could qualify for knockout round, also Shakhtar. FC Kobenhaven impressed me by defeating Ajax, they could reach 3rd place, in my oppinion.
My favourites for winning the UCL this year: Internazionale, Barcelona and Chelsea.

Re: CL Group Stage - over and under-performers
Author: SHEV Date: 07-09-2006, 10:18	Even it's unlikely, I think Steaua could get 10 points in group E They could even get 18 with a bit of luck. 19 will be a problem, but I think for such great team as Steaua nothing is impossible.

Re: CL Group Stage - over and under-performers
Author: mioke Date: 07-09-2006, 13:50	@SHEV you're so funny :\|. We will see who's right... Steaua is a better TEAM than Dynamo(judging not only the coefficients) and even if it fails to qualify for the knockout round, we will still reach 3rd place. But I have a feeling that Steaua could beat Real... Wait and see!

Re: CL Group Stage - over and under-performers
Author: Overgame Date: 07-09-2006, 14:01	Better than dynamo ? based on ? Dynamo played 9 of the last 10 CLGS, this is the 1st in ten years for Steaua.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 07-09-2006, 15:14
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 07-09-2006, 15:18

Mioke - going back to your original post.

R. Madrid beat Rosenborg twice and lost their last game against Olympiakos having already qualified. Not very good examples to cite.

They do often have trouble with less than mediocre opposition though. Drawing against Partizan in Belgrade in 2003-04, and three times in 2002-03 (once with Genk & twice with AEK). So you could say Steaua aren't without hope...

Author: STK
Date: 07-09-2006, 20:26

@badgerboy, letting aside the fact that you say about Steaua that is "less than a mediocre team" (!!! and then acuse other users of bragging, althrough you fail to identify the cause) with no reason i must say again that 10p in group E is an realistic target for Steaua: 3 wins at home and one draw in Kiev or 2 wins with Dynamo and one win and one draw with Lyon (supposing that Real is that invincible team that lots of users like to bragg with).

Author: Ricardo
Date: 08-09-2006, 07:59

STK,
Don't forget the difference between k-o matches and groupstage: with k-o the better team might lose away to put all right at home. In the gs every point counts. The teams will also try to win away matches or at least grab a point.
With 10p it would probably make you 2nd in the group. That would be a big surprise to me (not to you ofcourse).
I can't wait till the matches finally wil go underway next week.

Author: lazio
Date: 08-09-2006, 11:17

Not again about Steaua! And...not again ironic remarks from Shev!Althogh I'm romanian and as much I would like to see Steaua winning and qualify with 10-12 points, etc...it's a little bit unrealistic...of course that doesn't mean that is imposible...Steaua is a good team, so are Dynamo Kiev...so it's gonna be a tough match between those two teams...but that doesn't give me the right to say that Steaua it so much better team than Kiev, also that doesn't give the right to Shev to post ironic happy faces on the forum and to try to be funny and interesting...I must admit that I prefer to lose 4-0 both of the matches with Dynamo and qualify along with the ucrainean team...it's gonna be hard for both those teams to qualify, but hey, if Greece it's the curent European Champion, I think anything could happen!

Re: CL Group Stage - over and under-performers
Author: gluer Date: 08-09-2006, 11:19	Dynamo Kiev - Steaua Bucuresti 0-1 or 1-2

Author: mioke
Date: 08-09-2006, 11:20

@Badgerboy
Real Madrid-Rosenborg was 0-1 at HT! The second half brought the 4 spanish goals. Real Madrid won their home Olympiakos fixture with a goal in the 86th minute. In 4 matches, Real Madrid played (very) well only in the second half with Rosenborg at home. I say they are not unbeatble.
Dynamo Kiev was a great team, but after Valery Lobanowsky's death they have poorer and poorer performances. They are, in my oppinion, weaker than Shakhtar, which Rapid have beaten last year. As for how many times team A qualified for CLGS... Romanian clubs had poor performances and they couldn't qualify for the GS because they had poor coeff. and they were not seeded in the qualif rounds. But Steaua is here now and next year and two years from now, cuz we have a coeff. that allows us to enter a team directly in the CLGS

Author: badgerboy
Date: 08-09-2006, 11:32
Edited by: badgerboy
at: 08-09-2006, 11:41

STK

I must apologise. I threw that one in really just to see if anyone would notice.

I wouldn't really use "less than mediocre" to descibe Steaua. Even the other teams I mention probably deserve to be at least "mediocre". Mediocre being a very subjective and comparitive term. Partizan, Genk & AEK are not teams that regularly compete at the CL Group Stage & hence would hardly be classed as a major force compared to most teams in the draw. Their overall results - at that level - would back this view up I think.

Steaua might well prove to be "mediocre" - though bear in mind I'm using this term comparatively. They could be among the 30 best teams in Europe & still be below the level required to be seriously competitive at CL level.

I think I wrote elsewhere that I'd consider almost any team in pots C or D given Steaua's draw as likely to come 4th in the group and certainly as major outsiders to fill the top two places. That wouldn't make Steaua a "bad" team - just not on a level with the top dozen or so clubs.

On a final note. Historical evidence would suggest that Steaua have been given the short straw in their possible fight for a UEFA Cup place. Assuming Lyon & R. Madrid do dominate the group (and I know we don't all think like that - even I consider Dinamo a serious threat) then Real have a far greater tendency to drop points once the "job is done" than Lyon.

PS I don't believe I accused anyone of bragging.

Edit: Mioke - if you look at Real Madrid's overall Group Stage record it looks like they often do "just enough" to qualify. Of course it could be that "they are not as good as they (or some of us)think they are". It's often said though that good teams win without playing well. The Group table last year indicates Lyon & R. Madrid totally dominated Olympiakos & Rosenborg - two very experienced CL performers.

Author: panda
Date: 08-09-2006, 11:38

Like Ricardo, I can't wait for the matches to start. There are so many interesting groups, but in this one, I think everyone who says we don't know what the performance of Real M will be is right. They have been and therefore are vulnerable; then again, there have been changes, so maybe there is an improvement... or not. And for sure for the other 2 teams, better to be facing Real M and Lyon, not Barca and Chelsea.....

Re: CL Group Stage - over and under-performers
Author: mioke Date: 08-09-2006, 12:11	I'll start another querry: which "big" team won't qualify from the GS? 2001-2002-Borussia Dortmund, Feyenoord, Lazio 2002-2003-Bayern Munchen, Liverpool 2003-2004-Internazionale 2004-2005-Valencia 2005-2006-Manchester Utd These were the suprises of each season, teams tipped with 1st or 2nd chance of winning their group. I will bet my money this year on Real Madrid

Re: CL Group Stage - over and under-performers
Author: Ricardo Date: 08-09-2006, 12:42	I guess you only take pot A&B teams as posible candidates for this. hmm, I won't put my money agaisnt yours as I can see no team failing currently. I can mention Porto, but I don't really regard that as one of the big teams anymore. Maybe Valencia?

Author: badgerboy
Date: 08-09-2006, 15:55

Looking purely at the pots the bad news is the number of "surprises" is falling.

5 Pot 1 or 2 teams failed to pass the GS in 2001-02, 02-03 & 03-04. Reduced to 4 in 04-05 & only 3 last season. It's true also that one Pot 1 team has fallen at this stage each season - two in 2004-05.

Looking at the losing teams. I know hindsight is a wonderful thing but...

Lazio - twice (01-02 & 03-04). A team clearly in decline following financial upheaval. Bayern Munich (02-03) - had a very bad season but then the teams that qualified from their group were Deportivo (still a force at the time) & Milan (in Pot 3 at the time!). Deportivo & Valencia (04-05) - again with hindsight teams in relative decline - especially Depor. Valencia were eliminated by Werder Bremen - who appear to be a team on the rise. Man Utd (05-06) - time will tell if this is evidence of a decline - though there is already evidence to suggest Man U. are no longer a Pot 1 team (2 previous last 16 defeats) and/or a rise in the star of Benfica.

Of the Pot B teams to fall I would list the following as genuine "surprises":

2001-02 - Boavista eliminates Dortmund
2002-03 - Basle eliminates Liverpool
2003-04 - Lokomotiv Moscow eliminates Inter

I agree Real haven't been that great by their own high standards in the past couple of seasons. But even at the level they were last year I'd still have to stretch my imagination to see Steaua competing with them (or with Lyon - whose recent form is very solid). Again - look how close seasoned CL teams like Olympiakos & Rosenborg got to these two last year. Sorry I discount the score at half-time. 90 minutes & the final league table is what counts...

I'll come back later on the general question of "over-rated" teams.