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Race for 7th
Author: Tupoy Date: 24-07-2006, 14:41	(6 Portugal 1.000 35.666 6/6) 7. Netherlands 0.428 31.593 7/7(!) 8. Russia 0.000 29.500 4/4 9. Romania 0.666 29.498 3/3 (10 Belgium 0.800 25.175 5/5) What do you think? My prediction 7. Romania 8. Russia 9. Netherlands

Re: Race for 7th
Author: STK Date: 24-07-2006, 14:47	My opinion is that Romania can't expect more than place 8 for this season, But Rusia can even take Portugalia's place, 6th. So: 9. Portugal 8. Romania 7. Netherlands 6. Russia Only because Romania will have 3 team out of 3, but for 2008-2009 when probably will be 6 out of 6, i expect like Romania exit from top 10. Happy?

Re: Race for 7th
Author: Lunaris Date: 24-07-2006, 14:48	why should it be important to become 7th? you may make a thread for the 8th, as this is a position were team numbers change and i'm pretty sure the "fight" for 7th is already included in the topic with the 6th place (i guess it's included in "romania on 5th" as well, although there's more brabbling about anything but coefficients in that topic)

Re: Race for 7th
Author: Serge Date: 24-07-2006, 20:32	Well, I watch matches from Russian Premierleague, and Russian teams are all in good shape now ( didn't see Lokomotive ) and I guess Russia is the favourite! P.S. When answering at the question "why 7th", I think the first 6 is for the giants, but ofcourse, "Race for 8th" would be more resonable .

Re: Race for 7th
Author: Maluyaca Date: 25-07-2006, 17:12	Belgium would be very happy if they can stay on position 10. It depends all of Romania I think. If they are lucky with the draws especially the ones of the Uefacup in the first round they will be the hot favourites else it will be difficult. But I don't see why you set the race for 7th there is no difference between position 7 and 8. At the topic starter are you romanian?

Re: Race for 7th
Author: dinamo_fan_4_ever Date: 25-07-2006, 17:51 Edited by: dinamo_fan_4_ever at: 25-07-2006, 17:52	Maluyaca said : "It depends all of Romania I think. If they are lucky with the draws especially the ones of the Uefacup in the first round they will be the hot favourites else it will be difficult." i think its valuable for all the countries that "battle" for the 5-6-7-8 .. place. A 4 team country with 3 groupstagers , a 6 team country with 4-5 groupstagers can get the jackpot

Re: Race for 7th
Author: cinebelul Date: 27-07-2006, 00:40	STK wrote: "Only because Romania will have 3 team out of 3, but for 2008-2009 when probably will be 6 out of 6, i expect like Romania exit from top 10. Happy?" Not happy! Romania will still stay between 5th and 8th place for some years! (like the greeks) The other teams in Romania are not worse as the greek teams like Xanthi, Akratitos, Panonions and such a padding...

Author: iceman777
Date: 27-07-2006, 05:14
Edited by: iceman777
at: 27-07-2006, 05:16

I don't know why most people assume that when Romania gets to 6th place, that they will all of a sudden start to get coefficients of 2.000-3.000 and fall way back real quick. If you look at it logically, being 6th place gives you a chance to put consistent coefficients of 6.000 to 10.000 quite easily. It's harder to put coefficients of 15.000 but really putting 6.000 to 10.000 should not be that hard. Here's why:

- 1st of all being 6th place means that 2 of your teams are directly in group stage and you get 6 bonus points
- the third place team (say Dinamo or Rapid) will get two cracks at group stage (3rd QR in CL, and 1st Rd Uefa). In both cases they should be seeded by that time.
- So about 85 percent of the time, your top 3 teams should be in group stage (either CL or UEFA).
- Then you have 3 more teams that start in R1 uefa. Even in a bad year 1 out of three teams should move on to group stage.
- How many times does a country with 4 out of 6 teams in group stage get coefficients of 2.000 - 3.000 like people are predicting for Romania?
- The Romanian league has been dominated by the Steaua,Dinamo,Rapid but the last few years there are more teams that are building great squads and will consitenly be top teams (Poli, CFR Cluj and National)

Those 4 through 6 teams (Poli, CFR, National) from Romania will only probably need like one good season out of five to gather enough points to get to a team coefficient of about 22.000 to be seeded in R1 of UEFA. I think they will stay top 8 until last season's coefficient comes of the books. They might fall back to 9-10 but not as low and quick as some people think.

Re: Race for 7th
Author: Floridian Date: 27-07-2006, 07:35	When looking at the countries in the first 8 positions, you also should take into account a higher-than-average probability of getting one more team through Intertoto Cup. After all, teams from these countries have got to play only 1 two-leg tie and they are seeded in the draw for that tie.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 27-07-2006, 11:06

I just wanted to reply to a couple of Iceman777's points.

First, much of what he says is very true. Assuming Romania does (as they should) reach the top 8 this year they are likely to be there a while, primarily because last years coefficient is such an extraordinarily high one and will go a long way to compensating for any relatively weak years that might be upcoming.

"1st of all being 6th place means that 2 of your teams are directly in group stage and you get 6 bonus points"

Bear in mind though that these extra "bonus" points are offset by the loss of qualifying round points - 9 if you assume each team gets 2 pts in CLQR2/UEFAQ1 and 1 pt in CLQR3/UEFAQR2.

And finally:

"being 6th place gives you a chance to put consistent coefficients of 6.000 to 10.000 quite easily. It's harder to put coefficients of 15.000 but really putting 6.000 to 10.000 should not be that hard".

6.000 quite possible but not easy - 10.000 very hard.

Here is the overall record of countries outside the top 5 with 6 European places since 1999-2000 when the current formats began.

Holland 7 53.664 7.666
Portugal 3 19.499 6.500
Turkey 2 11.166 5.583
Czech. Rep. 1 5.500 5.500
Greece 6 32.997 5.500
Russia 2 6.166 3.083
Total 21 128.992 6.142

Only Holland - twice - has achieved a rank above 10.000 (twice) and their consistent performance suggests they fully deserve their top 8 position. The other stats are perhaps a guide as to what constitutes a realistic points target with 6 teams.

Re: Race for 7th
Author: OlympiacosFAN Date: 27-07-2006, 12:11	I think it will be between Russia and Romania. Besides PSV Eindhoven's astonishing run in season CL2004/05 (Semis), Dutch clubs have been struggling in European Competitions. Especially AFC Ajax,,who once were the most feared club in Europe. Now they have taken a nose dive in the last 5 years.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 27-07-2006, 12:51

Well, Feyenoord won the UefaCup in 01/02 and Ajax almost reached semi's in 02/03(extra time winner by AC Milan). True, not very much, but AZ joined as a topclub the last 2 years and Ajax made a few enhancements for their team next year(Stam, Perez) I expect them to be better as last year.
PSV should (again) be able to reach CL-2nd round, as well as Ajax.
Feyenoord and AZ should reach the UC-groupstage and pass it.
Groningen and Heerenveen also should make it to the UC-groupstage, but it will be hard for them.
Twente will probably not get to the UC-groupstage.
Still draws will make everything different, we'll see.

Re: Race for 7th
Author: doctor Date: 27-07-2006, 20:39	Romania will exit top 25

Author: coppo
Date: 27-07-2006, 21:06

Russia is strong.
Romanian teams are also strong but one misstep or bad draw can lower the coefficient.
Netherlands: OVERestimated. Very weak teams and three decent teams.
Portugal: not so good anyway, I think but they have too much points of 2002-2004.
Like someone said: draw is extremely important.

I expect after this year:
6 Portugal
7 Russia
8 Belgium
9 Romania
10 Netherlands (watch out for Ukraine !!!)

Re: Race for 7th
Author: iceman777 Date: 27-07-2006, 22:32	It will be mighty tough for Belgium to pass Romania since, they are about 5.000 points behind and they have 5 teams. Out of those five, 3 will not be seeded (Standard, Zulte and Roselare).