This forum is read-only now. Please use Forum 2 for new posts
| xml | No replies possible in the archive |
| prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 01-07-2006, 12:05 | I have started making a prediction for next years countryranking based on that teams with higher coefficient win. As it already starts next week, and I also will be going on Holiday end of this week I wanted to share with you at least the country ranking - the teamranking is a bit more complicated. Result: rank country 02/06 06/07 02/07 rank02/06 So actualy very little changes. Ofcourse we know it will be different.. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: christi
Date: 03-07-2006, 12:41 | If this happens, it will be a big change for my country... Romania... 8th in Europe, that's 6 teams in the eurocups... I hope you're right :D |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Kronsky
Date: 03-07-2006, 13:40 | Ricardo, Counting out Plock and Zaglebie, Poland would have 2 teams in UCR1, of whitch Wisla Krakow would be seeded. Presuming that one polish team will advance to the group stage the coefficient You gave Poland is quite high. Actually, I would be surprised if Poland get more than 3 coeff. points this year... Best regards, Kronsky |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 03-07-2006, 15:29 | Kransky, I have all based ofcourse coefficient and Wisla Krakow has a good coefficient. I got: Legia gathering 2 points in quali+1 point in UC-R1 Wisla krakow 1.5 pts in quali+6 points(4th in GS) Wisla P. 0.5 in quali's Zaglebie 2 in quali's Lech Poznan not in UC Not completely unreachable, we will see... |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: ignjat63
Date: 03-07-2006, 15:36 | Ricardo, Serbia and Motenegro FA does not exist anymore. On 28th of June there has been a meeting of SCG FA with FIFA and UEFA officials and it has been decided that SCG FA has ceased to exist there and then. As a sole successor Serbian FA should now have SCG standings and Montenegro starts at the bottom. Regards |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Pedro
Date: 03-07-2006, 17:49 Edited by: Pedro at: 03-07-2006, 17:51 | Soon Russia and Romania will be where Greece and Turkey are now! I watched this movie before. They buy expensive foreign players, they climb on the ranking. Then clubs go bankrupt, they go down to the bottom! |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 18:51 Edited by: Giuseppe at: 03-07-2006, 18:52 | Romanian teams buy expensive foreign players? did I miss anything? |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 18:56 Edited by: Giuseppe at: 03-07-2006, 18:57 | deleted |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: censored
Date: 03-07-2006, 18:59 | Of corse they do. Just one portughese goalkeeper in divizia A; all the others are foreigners :D ... not portughese i mean. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Pedro
Date: 03-07-2006, 19:09 | Yes,you are buying some players here, and there are several portuguese players who had offers from romanian clubs. The portuguese players market is very expensive and usually only english, spanish and italian clubs can afford to buy here. Last year, a russian club ( Dinamo Moscow) bougth several good players here in Portugal. Now the club is bankrupt!!!! |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 19:15 Edited by: Giuseppe at: 03-07-2006, 19:16 | I hardly believe the 500.000 euros Steaua paid for Carlos could be described as a lot of money. Anyway I'd like to hear the names of those really expensive players that Romanian clubs wanted to buy from Portugal... jeeez |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: censored
Date: 03-07-2006, 19:20 Edited by: censored at: 03-07-2006, 19:24 | Excuse me, but maby the club from Moskow is bankrupt from other reasons. I can't imagine how stupid the management of a club have to be, to buy expensive players and to not afford to cover expenses. In Est Europe, the clubs have another policies, they do not buy expensive players and then expect guarantated games from UEFA to recover part of investition, like in West  ) The buy what they afford with the current budget, they do not place bets, the risk is low.Yes, Steaua made an offer on another portughese, a right defender from Amadora, but with a fee lower that 1 mil euros. The transfer have not been realised. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Pedro
Date: 03-07-2006, 19:26 | Yeah, I heard the same story from greek and turkish club fans a few years ago. See where they are now!!! |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 19:27 | The guy is called Tony and his not even Portuguese, he's French |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 19:32 Edited by: Giuseppe at: 03-07-2006, 19:36 | I think you're just upset because Romanian teams want to buy players from Portugal and not the other way around. At least its nice to see a guy from Portugal that is so concerned about the future of Romanian football  |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Pedro
Date: 03-07-2006, 19:48 | Concerned about romanian football? No. Just don't like to watch a bad movie twice. The day you improve football schools for kids, I will be the first to praise romanian football. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 19:50 | Do you have any idea how many foreigners Steaua or Rapid had last season? |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Pedro
Date: 03-07-2006, 20:05 | I have the idea of how much Steua payed for Carlos and i have the idea that some portuguese league players said this summer they had offers from Romania. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 20:23 | And exactly how much did Steaua pay for Carlos? was it more than I said? |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Pedro
Date: 03-07-2006, 20:58 | Here in portugal is said to be around 750.000€ |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 21:01 | That's a huge amount of money indeed, much higher than 500.000! I wonder where on Earth we got that extra 250.000? |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: ignjat63
Date: 03-07-2006, 21:03 | From Red Star with very high inetrest, perhaps? |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 21:11 Edited by: Giuseppe at: 03-07-2006, 21:21 | Yeah! LOL I really don't see any problem with these transfers. Teams from around here still rely heavily on Romanian players and no wonder they do since here, unlike in the west, you aren't allowed to use more than five foreigners. (of course that may change starting from next season due to new European laws) No matter what anyone will say, Romanian teams don't throw millions around (at least not yet) like some Russian, Turkish or Greek clubs. They don't do it because they simply can't afford to do it; they can however produce reasonable offers for reasonably good players, no matter where they come from. Let's face not every western player makes as much as Ronaldinho, and some of them may even decide to come to Romania for a decent wage. It's not my fault (or Steaua's) if Carlos, who makes around 100.000 euros in Romania, had half that wage at Boavista. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: ignjat63
Date: 03-07-2006, 21:16 | It would be very interesting indeed if players of some quality that we lack start discovering Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia... I wonder if it is really possible. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 03-07-2006, 21:20 | I think they will, in fact they are probably already doing it. And I believe these players don't have to be very well known in order to be good. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: badgerboy
Date: 04-07-2006, 11:56 | Well the course of this thread seems to show that Ronaldo isn't the only Portuguese person who likes to bait people in the hope of getting a reaction! Must be a national characteristic I suppose! On a more serious note. What is the situation as regards youth development in the countries discussed? For other European countries too? How many of the big clubs (as in those who play regularly in Europe) have successful youth policies and at what age do they recruit players? Which are the other clubs in your country that are best known for developing young players that go on to have big careers either with the "big" clubs in your country or overseas? Is it still common for players to work their way up through the football pyramid (starting to play in the lower leagues) or do the bigger clubs (or at least clubs playing at the highest level) tend to grab players at a very young age? |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: ignjat63
Date: 04-07-2006, 12:35 Edited by: ignjat63 at: 04-07-2006, 12:37 | Well, badger, Serbia's football school is outdated and it is what we fans mostly accuse of the two big clubs. The kids they recruit are slow and not very strong. And also they are not even having 30% of the technique players had 20 years ago. So the first thing to do to improve Serbia's football is to totally modernize football education. I do not know why is it so complicated as we only have to copy what west europe already does. But that leads us to another problem. We do not have good coaches any more. Except a few that work abroad, like Ghana's coach Ratomir Dujkovich. And that takes us to our third problem, where we are our worst enemies. Lobbying for all the wrong people. For example, Dujkovich was offered to succeed Petkovich, but nobody is lobbying for him. A guy named Kosanovich (used to coach Red Star and some Chinese team) has most chances to become national team coach which will probably be disaster. We will see what will happen. EDIT: Is censored our old friend STK? |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: executor
Date: 04-07-2006, 12:45 Edited by: executor at: 04-07-2006, 12:46 | @ignjat63 Yes . Check http://www.kassiesa.net/uefa//forum/view.php?archive=2006.Q2&topic=20060513214823.xml. (search for "censored") |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: badgerboy
Date: 04-07-2006, 12:51 | Yes. I remember the first post from "censored" which indicated he had been banned and this was his "last post" but now he has returned. I don't know the exact cause of the original ban but perhaps (like the Greeks) a reprieve for meeting the conditions of the forum (such as they are) is reasonable  |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: ignjat63
Date: 04-07-2006, 12:55 | He has returned with vengenance?  Anyway, censored welcome back.  |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Kronsky
Date: 04-07-2006, 13:25 | Ricardo, If Wisla K. reach group stage and -I dont think they will - they will hardly get 4 points with present team. The best team in Poland right now and far better than Wisla K. is Legia Warszawa. But they want be seeded in UCR1 so I think it will be miracle if Poland get thise 3 points. I rather think that Poland will do slightly better than last year... Best regards, Kronsky |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: bert.kassies
Date: 04-07-2006, 14:37 | Welcome back censored. If you like it you can use the new name as a "badge of honour" (in Dutch we call it a geuzennaam). But if you prefer, you could also use the original name again. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: ignjat63
Date: 04-07-2006, 14:47 Edited by: ignjat63 at: 04-07-2006, 14:49 | badger said "Yes. I remember the first post from "censored" which indicated he had been banned and this was his "last post" but now he has returned." Of course he has returned. That is what Bert's site and this forum does to people. We are in trouble. We are in deep shit. We are hooked. We are addicted. We are high on ecstasy. We are all in Hotel California: "You can check out any time you like but you can never leave". |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: panda
Date: 04-07-2006, 14:47 | Yes! Welcome back 'censored'! You have been missed!! I think you should keep your new name, too. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: STK
Date: 04-07-2006, 16:19 | Well thank you, i will. I was not aware that the name "censored" has such a deep semnification in dutch-french history. I though that "censored" define only a person that is not worthy of "expressing opinions outside of a predefine databased", a "beggar of freedom". Someone may say that everyone is free, but some people are more free than others. For example the beggars are more free than other people, they have the freedom to begg, which other people only wish they had. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: panda
Date: 05-07-2006, 02:26 | Well, I'm with ignjat63 here; this is a very unusual football forum (one of the nice things is that if you have several posters from each country supporting different clubs, people can see in microcosm how things are in that country). On what other football forum can it be a question, where is William of Orange from? (In fact, I guess he is from Orange). Watergeuzen - yeah, we learned about these guys in school; I think it's quite common for political names to start off as insults (e.g. tories (conservatives) in UK. How about this, STK- you could use one name or the other depending on the nature of your post? football song of Millwall supporters (sometimes used by others) 'Nobody loves us. we don't care.' |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: STK
Date: 05-07-2006, 06:37 | @panda, England is such a inspirational source isn't? For everything that happened/happening in the world, you have something similar happened before in a small village, on a hill,... in history. If were to make a wild guess, i say that everyone take England like example to follow, and before engaiging to someting they look very carefull to not do something that the englishmen haven't done before. I'll give you an example from football: Fifa wanted to create some cups, some extra-easy-bucks, but they didn't know what importance/role to give to them, and so they inspired from England political situation, and give them the same role and power the english laws give to the Queen ... and so they created WC and EC. You do a great service to humanity. Keep it up! |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: panda
Date: 05-07-2006, 10:11 | @STK I think we did a strange service to humanity - we invented a lot of sports (or maybe more correct to say codified them), then we steadily became more rubbish at them. Football: well, that's one is obvious from this WC, English performance has been a joke for non-English, sad for English. Cricket: admittedly, this applies only to ex-colonial countries, but apart from a few good moments, England has been poor for many years. Tennis: Wimbledon is 2 week tournament, and we are lucky when even 1 English survives into 2nd week- we are worse at all other tennis tournaments than that. Rugby: again, it is only very occasionally that England is not humiliated in both Union and League. There are other examples.... BTW, Queen has less power in UK than Fifa in football. There's a kind of pretence she has power, and for sure she is mega rich, but things are done by the government 'in her name.' |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: STK
Date: 05-07-2006, 10:24 | Yes, i don't know about football, maby a co-propriety with the chinese people is more close to truth. And keep your heads up, the trophies will. The Queen is more a sample of english pride and nationalism, and also reflects their conservator nature and respect for history. Like this final country tournaments is more nostalgia than football, more show than quality. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: ignjat63
Date: 05-07-2006, 10:50 | "football song of Millwall supporters (sometimes used by others) 'Nobody loves us. we don't care.'" Actually panda, Millwall is pretty popular in Serbia for a reason you might fing interesting. Namely, Millwall is favourite club of Derek "Del Boy" Trotter. And "Fools and Horses" is simply adored in these parts together with 'allo 'allo (In Croatia too). I have all the episodes on video tape. So in a way I too support Millwall. But as old Grandad used to say: "His father always said Del will reach the top. But then again, he used to say Millwall will win UEFA cup" |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: panda
Date: 05-07-2006, 10:58 | When Millwall entered the UC as a Cup loser, the draw they had received in their domestic cup (no seedings after the top 2 tier clubs enter in the R3) meant the final was the first match they played against a Premiership side. But, on this thread, which sees 'the return of STK' mentioning that 1) lack of seeding 2) a high co-eff meaning lots of places AND 3)the 'cup loser qualifies' system: allowed a very poor English side to play in Europe is probably like putting my head in the lion's mouth. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Tupoy
Date: 05-07-2006, 15:14 | Ricardo Russia 29.500 7.000 36.500 from Russia will play 3 super (Russians) clubs - CSKA, Spartak, Lokomotiv and very strong provincial club Rubin. Do you think they will take 7 points? 10 minimum. CSKA can reach to 1/4 CL Spartak, Lokomotiv - 1/4 UEFA Cup Rubin- group stage UEFA Cup. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 05-07-2006, 16:31 | @Tupoy Ricardo just assumes that the seeded teams in each round progress. Spartak and Rubin don't have a high coefficient, so in that assumption they won't progress very far (Rubin in R1 and Spartak in groupstage of UEFA-cup, CSKA and Lokomotiv in round 3 of UEFA-cup). |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: MartinW
Date: 15-07-2006, 06:49 | I guess Ricardo might still be away on holiday, but I was interested to know what the effect on this predicted country ranking could be assuming the Italian teams are changed according to yesterday's judgement? I guess that Juventus and Milan would have contributed many points under Ricardo's assumptions about the higher seeded team winning each tie. It would be interesting to see what the total effect could be on Italy's country co-efficient and compare the change to before. We could also see if there is a chance of France overtaking Italy for the 3rd place ranking during this year or maybe next year. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Maluyaca
Date: 15-07-2006, 13:01 | It's too early too make a prediction because you don't know how many teams every country has. There are still 11 IT spots to be decided. After the intertoto finals I think it's the best time too see what everybody thinks. Now it's gambling without info then it's gambling with some info. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 15-07-2006, 21:51 | I am on vacation, but could not resist caculating influence of the Italian verdict on the 'predicted' ranking (I keep saying predicted as it is a prediction based on coefficients-not always the best) I also found out that my current neighbour here in Switzerland has a open wireless network - so I can internet  I'll give just top 10 of the new prediction(Juve, Milan,Fiorentina, Lazio do not play) Rank'07 country cof0206 cof0607 cof0207 0206So to be honest- it does not id that much different: Juve to semi CL, AS Roma to 2nd Rnd CL, Palermo 4th in CL-GS Parma 1/4F UC, Chievo, Livorno, Empoli 5th in UC-GS Not good, but still 10 points!! Ofcourse current Intertoto results can change it again: Newcastle is a highcoefficent team. with a home 1-1 they can be out!! Team ranking means Milan drops from 1 to 5, Juve from 3 to 12 More important is that Juve will also not play CL/UC next year again. Milan will and also will keep their players. So Unfair! |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 24-07-2006, 14:14 | I have updated the prediction with the latest results (CL-Q1 and Intertoto) and put it on-line: CountryRanking TeamRanking |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Lunaris
Date: 24-07-2006, 14:45 | ricardo, your prediction doesn't fit with the results of the first qualifying rounds as liechtenstein already got one point, so they have half a point more already than your prediction says maybe it would be better not only actualize the it-winners, but the previous rounds too |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Lyonnais
Date: 25-07-2006, 08:47 | Ricardo: great job! Thanks. Keep it in your archive to compare this prediction to actual results at season-end to see which country over(under) achieved. Panda wrote: Rugby: again, it is only very occasionally that England is not humiliated in both Union and League. Panda forgot to say that England obviously is the reigning world champion in Rugby beating Australia in Australia (the equivalent of beating Brazil or Argentina away in a football WC final. Huge achievement. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 25-07-2006, 08:54 | Lunaris, you are right, I had not yet included the UC first leg results. I have done so now. I have not changed the winners of the ties, except for 1 tie the Ujpest-Vaduz tie. I changed that to Vaduz winnign. All others-despite seeded teams losing a home match- I kept the same: seeded team will win. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Edgar
Date: 25-07-2006, 08:57 Edited by: Edgar at: 25-07-2006, 09:01 | Thanks Ricardo. Great work! One question though: Slovenia has (in your predicted CR) a coeff of 1.667 for 06/07. This would mean 3 teams for Slovenia, but they now have 4 (Maribor from UIC). |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: panda
Date: 25-07-2006, 10:46 | @lyonnais Panda didn't forget; in fact he saw on TV live the famous winning dropped goal by Wilkinson. However, since then, England have nose-dived in their standard. The coach (woodward) failed with the Lions, then changed to football, where he is currently a figure of fun. Same with the cricket; famous victory over Australia which totally changed the perception of the game in England; since then, terrible. The direct comparison with Australia, who seem much better equipped (mentally) to stay at the top. Actually (realting to the thread about different sports across the world), golf is perhaps a sport where one can bond easily with Americans; tennis used to be, but at the moment US tennis is in a bad state. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 25-07-2006, 14:38 | Yes Edgar,  there was something wrong. I added a team to Slovakia iso Slovenia. Lyonnais, I will save this latest version, I'm afraid again I am already too late again for the first prediction, but that still is on this topic! Though I wonder what should be taken into account for a good first prediction: Intertoto teams? Italian teams participating? |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: panda
Date: 25-07-2006, 14:48 Edited by: panda at: 25-07-2006, 14:51 | Ricardo, do you do this every year? Have you compared previous predictions with the reality? Presumably, because seeded / higher co-eff wins reinforce the status quo and upsets do the opposite, we should in most cases see that reality causes more change than the prediction predicts? Is that right? Hmmm. What is the true 'first prediction?' In most cases one would say - before the first match is played. But in this case, obviously a lot of teams are out and the IT is finished before the Italian teams are even known. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Maluyaca
Date: 25-07-2006, 16:33 | @Ricardo I know you make some predictions can you the next time if it is possible put a line between the difference between places. I will give you an example of what I mean. A line between country 3 and country 4 because there is a difference in the number of CL teams. A line between country 6 and country 7 reason see above A line between country 8 and country 9 because of the number of teams qualified. A line between country 9 and country 10 because of the start of the team in Group stage A line between country 10 and country 11 because country 10 can have a directly qualified for the CL if the winner of the CL qualifies himself in their country. And so on, I I think this is possible. |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: panda
Date: 25-07-2006, 17:55 Edited by: panda at: 25-07-2006, 18:07 | @Ricardo Sorry, me again. On reflection I had 2 answers. 1) ask ferdi. he is the most precise guy among us (I think) and he will also call it a projection! 2) for myself, I think you should be able to make a projection-prediction immediately after the uefa draw on friday, incorporating all correct info from this season so far. After all, not knowing what Italian teams, or how many Intertoto teams are variables you should not have to include. @maluyaca You could always just cut and paste the table into a word processing doc (I have, so I can consult it at the end of the season without having to search the archive) and add lines where you please! |
| Re: prediction countryranking '07 | |
| Author: Lyonnais
Date: 25-07-2006, 19:01 | Ricardo, agree with Panda. Ideally the starting projection should begin before the first intertoto game is played (meaning after Italian participation was adjusted). This said, there was no huge upset in the intertoto, so your current projection looks like a very good basis for analysis Thanks again to do this all the more that I understood that you were on vacation |