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Author: Lyonnais
Date: 17-06-2006, 18:27

Some like to say that it is irrelevant to start strongly in a WC, because you might lose some energy for the real games (the KO games). I was wondering whether it was true and made the all-team standing after the round:

WC 2002

1. BRAZIL 9 pts (+8)
2. Spain 9 pts (+5)
3. Germany 7 pts (+10)
(...)
6. South Korea 7 pts (+3)
13. Turkey 4 pts (+2)

2 finalists thus did very well in first round, and we can add South Korea who won their group with 7 pts too. Turkey first round was much poorer, but they were in the same group as Brazil, so that doesn't mean much.
As far as Spain are concerned, they were beaten by South Korea on penalty kicks in quarters, but we all remember that refereeing was a bit contreversial and that the Spanish team could deserve going to the semis too.
So, based on this, it looks like pretty convincing that doing a good first round is a very good sign for the KO games.

WC 1998

1. FRANCE 9 pts (+8)
2. Argentina 9 pts (+7)
3. Netherlands 7 pts (+5)
(...)
8. Brazil 6 pts (+3)
10. Croatia 6 pts (+2)

Pretty convincing too as France was the best team after the first round. Argentina and Netherlands met in quarters of final, and Netherlands just failed on penalty kicks vs. Brazil in semis.

WC 1994

1. BRAZIL 7 pts (+5)
2. Germany 7 pts (+2)
3. Nigeria 6 pts (+4)
4. Bulgaria 6 pts (+3)
(...)
10. Sweden 5 pts (+2)
15. Italy 4 pts (0)

Pretty convincing too for Brazil and Bulgaria. Germany was beaten by Bulgaria, whereas Nigeria were beaten by Italy. Like in 1998, it looks like that either being in top-3 or beating a first round top-3 team is extremely promising.

WC 1990

1. ITALY 6 pts (+4)
2. Brazil 6 pts (+3)
3. Germany 5 pts (+7)
(...)
9. England 4 pts (+1)
12. Argentina 3 pts (+1)

Again, Germany did a very good first round. Italy was just beaten in pk in semis by Argentina. Argentina missed their first round but managed to beat Brazil and Italy in KO games.

WC 1986

1. DENMARK 9 pts (+8)
2. Brazil 6 pts (+5)
3. USSR 5 pts (+8)
4. Argentina 5 pts (+4)
5. France 5 pts (+4)
(...)
12. Belgium 3 pts (0)
13. Germany 3 pts (-1)

This is the less convincing example. After a wonderful first round. Denmark exploded vs. Spain in the Last 16. However, Brazil lost only at penalty kicks to France whereas it is my opinion that the strong USSR team hadn't been helped by refereeing vs. Belgium. So both of them lost for details. Argentina and France did well in the first round, although they had tough groups. The only upset was the performance of Germany.

I didn't keep on doing it for 1982 and before as there were no KO games after the first round. However, it is fair to acknowledge that Italy did a poor first round in 1982, and that Argentina 78 and Germany 74 didn't win their group in first round.

However, I feel that I have an interesting response to the initial assumption. Teams that are doing a brilliant first round have all chances to do very well in the next rounds. The last 5 winners were among the top-4 teams after first round.

However, those whose teram is unlikely to be among top-3 teams (like myself) can have some expectations too. With the exception of Germany 2002, it is pretty common that the runner-up makes an average first round.

So all expectations are still possible for Ecuador, Germany, England, Argentina, Netherlands and Portugal who already won their 2 first games.

Author: panda
Date: 18-06-2006, 15:09
Edited by: panda
at: 18-06-2006, 17:33

This is a very interesting topic.

But so far in the WC, the comments have been between teams performing well (e.g. Arg) and badly (e.g. England) for their points. Any ideas whether in those GS instances the teams doing well were supposed to be 'good value' for those points.

Groups differ radically in standard- if England had not beaten Paraguay and TnT it would have seemed disastrous.

EDIT

OK- there can be 2 sets of reasons for the correlation also:

1) 'intrinsic' i.e. a very good team plays well in GS as well as in KO
2) 'second-order' or 'consequential' - if you start with 2 wins, you can rest players for the 3rd game; you may be more relaxed anyway, over 7 games it makes a difference.... if you are in an easier group, the players are less tired...doing well in GS probably means you won the group, so you had a slightly easier oppo in the last 16...

Author: exile
Date: 18-06-2006, 22:51

Continuing into history

1982

1 Brazil 6, +8
2 England 6, +5
3 Belgium 5, +2
4 Poland and Argentina 4, +4
6 Germany 4, +3
7 Austria 4, +2
8 N Ireland 4, +1
(Algeria 4, 0 and Hungary 3, +6 did not qualify)
9 USSR 3, +2
10 France 3, +1
11 Italy, Cameroon, Spain, Yugoslavia, Scotland 3, 0

Italy were 11th equal (or equal worst!).

1978

1 Italy 6, +4
2 Peru 5, +5
3 Poland 5, +3
4 Germany 4, +6
5 Argentina, Austria, Brazil 4, +1
8 Netherlands 3 +2

Argentina =5th

1974

1 Poland 6, +9
2 Netherlands 5, +5
3 E Germany 5, +3
4 Yugoslavia 4, +9
5 Brazil, W Germany, Sweden 4, +3
(Scotland 4, +2, did not qualify)
8 Argentina 3, +2

Germany =5th

1970

1 Germany 6, +6
2 Brazil 6, +5
3 Mexico and USSR 5, +5
5 Peru 4, +2
6 England, Italy 4, +1
8 Uruguay 3, +1

Brazil 2nd

1966

1 Portugal 6, +7
2 USSR 6, +5
3 Germany 5, +6
4 England 5, +4
5 Argentina 5, +3
6 Hungary 4, +2
7 Uruguay 4, +1
8 North Korea 3, -2

England 4th

1962

1 Hungary 5, +6
2 Brazil, USSR, Germany 5, +3
5 Yugoslavia 4, +5
6 Chile 4, +2
7 England, Italy 4, +1
8 Czechoslovakia 3, +1

Brazil =2nd

1958

1 Brazil 5, +5
2 Sweden 5, +4
3 France 4, +4
4 Germany 4, +2

absolutely on target - 1st 4 in the groups finished
in the same order as 1st,2nd,3rd and 4th in the World Cup!

Author: cska
Date: 19-06-2006, 09:14

@Lyonnais
Well, the observation is good in general. However, there is a slight remark here. When ranking teams in different groups you rank them only by points and GD, but don't take into account the strength of the other teams in the group AND the development of results till the last round. For example, in one group 3 teams can have chances to qualify after the last round and they all play at 100%. One of them wins all its matches and gets 9p. On the other hand, in another group one team (like Brazil on this WC) is 1st regardless of last round results. If this team loses its last match, nothing bad happens to them - they are still 1st. But they get 6p, which is worse than 9p of the other maentioned team.
So, it is not always a good assumption that good point achievement in 1st round means good performance in KO's.
By the way, points not always measure good performance.

Author: ferdi
Date: 19-06-2006, 13:24
Edited by: ferdi
at: 19-06-2006, 22:28

It seems to me that different countries have different ideas how to play the first round. For example Germany starts with two victories (or one victory in 1954), then give themselves a rest in game (n-4). In 1954 it were only 6 matches, so game (n-4) was the second match, a 3-8 defeat against Hungary. In 1974 the third game was a 0-1 defeat against GDR-selection, and in 1990 the third game was a 1-1 against Columbia.

Edit: I have just been aware that the 3-8 defeat to Hungary in 1954 was on the 20th of June.

Re: World Cup - interesting stat
Author: bora Date: 23-06-2006, 20:56 Edited by: bora at: 23-06-2006, 21:12	here are the best four: 1.Spain 9 (7) 2.Germany 9 (6) 3.Brazil 9 (6) 4.Portugal 9 (4) next four will be clear after switzerland vs. south korea. an interesting stat for WC 2006: teams qualified for round 16 will be the first 16 teams considering GS's. (at least 16 of first 17 - it will be clear after switzerland vs. south korea also)

Re: World Cup - interesting stat
Author: drvasko98 Date: 23-06-2006, 22:02	Lyonnais, which team missed WC '90 and '94 and hasn't win in WC '02 and '06

Re: World Cup - interesting stat
Author: drvasko98 Date: 23-06-2006, 22:04	It still has 45 min

Re: World Cup - interesting stat
Author: Lyonnais Date: 23-06-2006, 23:02	drvasko98, i checked and rechecked my records and I didn't find any team that meets these conditions but if you ask me which will be the next victim of the brilliant Spanish team, I have some ideas to share with you.

Re: World Cup - interesting stat
Author: drvasko98 Date: 23-06-2006, 23:22	Im not sure but i didn't remember a Spanish win against France. It will be very dificult match for the other side - maybe penalties

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 23-06-2006, 23:41

well, although we have intersting stats vs. Spain in competitive games (Euro 2000, qualification for Euro 92, Euro 84), Spain won the last (friendly) game played in 2001 (2-1 in Barcelona).

But history will not help the French to score goals. Spain was pretty much unlucky in 2002 (I still believe that they had everything to win the WC), they look like even stronger in 2006 too, while France are declining. So clear advantage to Spain, no doubrt about that, but football is not an exact science, so we'll see on Tuesday.