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Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ignjat63 Date: 21-05-2006, 21:56 Edited by: ignjat63 at: 21-05-2006, 22:13	The first results based on statistical sample say 56,3 voted pro independence. It is said that it should be a stable situation. Later in the evening I will post more precise results. EDIT: That of course means Monte negro will be independent

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ywann Date: 21-05-2006, 22:24	Just to clarify - in order to get independence they should have 55%, so, at the moment, they are just 1.4% over. Serbian authorities have stated that they would be first to recognize independent Montenegro, but Montenegreen unionist don't look ready to admitt possible defeat.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ignjat63 Date: 21-05-2006, 23:32	Things are getting complicated now. The CESID (statistical organization) seems to have made a big blunder. Now it only 55,2 for independence. In my previous post I had trust in their sample. I'm not going to post any more untill final results.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Lyonnais Date: 22-05-2006, 01:18	Any Montenegreen player in the Serbian squad for the WC ? if yes, will they keep on playing for Serbia ?

Author: ignjat63
Date: 22-05-2006, 01:36

I suppose there is at least one. It was decided weeks ago that SCG will in any case take part in WC so the players nationalities have not been an issue. It is possible though that CG players will withrow from the national team if CG becomes independent. Remains to be seen.

But this referendum story will not end after the results are published officially tomorrow or after tomorrow. As the victory margin is so small the losing party will demand another voting in the places where there were irregularities. Also they will complain about two-day pre-election silence being violated. This will go on for some time.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: panda Date: 22-05-2006, 01:41	ignjat63 - you are from this part of the world and one of my big forum friends -as it seems you are online now - do you have an opinion on whether Montenegran independence would be good or bad, and what effect it will have to have separate leagues Best Panda

Author: ignjat63
Date: 22-05-2006, 01:57
Edited by: ignjat63
at: 22-05-2006, 02:03

panda

this is a much more complex question than leagues.

This separation is a final process of a long and really tragic thing called - a common country of southern slavic people.

In 19th century southern slavs lived under Ottoman empire and Austria Hungary. So all the slavs dreamed of being free and united as together they would be stronger.

But when they got free and Kingdom was formed in 1918 it turned out that southern slavic peoples had really very little in common. Even worse, it turned out that Slovenians and Croats had seen common country as temporary because they wanted full independence whereas Serbians thought that the common country was a final solution. So Yugoslavia has been a big missunderstanding from the beginning.

Such state of affairs produced a great enmity and bloodshed. WW2 has been a great tragedy for Serbs while in the 90s it has been a tragedy for the Croats. So it is a good thing that the common country does not exist any more.

And the country between Serbs and Montenegrians is really senseless. To them it seems we are suffocating them (being much bigger) and to us it seems they are pulling us back (being much smaller). So if they go it would be a good thing for all concerned.

Having common leagues in all sports was good for CG but having a very small league of their own will be bad in the long run. After present sportsmen are gone it will be hard for them to produce good ones as their sport infrastructure is pitiful indeed. Serbia though being much greater wont lose much.

Author: panda
Date: 22-05-2006, 02:23

This is a bit off-topic, but it is the middle of the night , and buy a strange coincidence I am writing to a pianist (Madzar) who was originally from belgrade. and so I guess bert will forgive.

Yes- I know a bit about Balkan history because history was my univ subject, then my work for a bit. Still, what made more impression on me was reading an article as an adolescent that prophesied, after Tito, there would be trouble in Yugoslavia. When it all fell apart a) I remembered this b) I was aware that in history, there was not a time when all the Slavic peoples were living already in harmony.

So- to return to the topic - IF there is a dispute about the election validity, what does this imply for the timescale of the new league? Will there be a Montenegro league in time for next Uefa competitions? (I know from italian scandal, the deadlines are very soon). Or are we looking at 07-08 for the new 'system.'

Is any Montegran team qualified for europe through the Serb + MOnt league whose participation is then in question?

Author: Nick
Date: 22-05-2006, 07:59
Edited by: Nick
at: 22-05-2006, 08:03

Panda: I'm not from Serbia but I can answer some questions. Zeta is the current IT participant and they are from CG. So there could be a change in the IT spot. Highly unlikely to happen though.
Now back to the slavic question. Back in time there was the so called "pan-slavic" idea. It was carried mainly by Russia who being the biggest slavic state hoped to dominate the slavic countries and ultimately unite them under the russian flag. This was back in the 19th century I must say and was not pursued at all costs because even in Russia there were many opponents of such a policy. After WW2 when Yugoslavia was ultimately formed there was even an idea for a union between Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. These talks are now considered in Bulgaria to be one of the greatest treasons comitted by our polititians because at this time we agreed for a macedonian nation to be created. It's a long story actually and I guess history books in different countries have different versions. But the truth is the the pan-slavic idea was dead from the beginning.

Author: ignjat63
Date: 22-05-2006, 10:50
Edited by: ignjat63
at: 22-05-2006, 11:02

OK now, there have just been an official statement by the Referendum official body. It's 55,4 pro independence while still about 25ooo votes to be processed. That cannot really change overall results so I guess pretty soon we will have Montenegro as a new UEFA member. They said there were no complaints of any importance so if the losing party complains it would be only formally and would not change anything.

If so this is what I think will most probably happen in weeks to come.

First both parties have to accept results. One party will proclaim victory another will proclaim defeat and hopefully congratulate the opponent.

The first thing that should happen after that is that Serbia recognizes MN as a new country. I do not know the procedure for this - it might be done by Serbian assembly or by the government. But it will have to be done as soon as possible.

As there is politically nothing questionable concerning MN gaining independence it wont take long for MN to enter UN and all other political and sport institutions as a new member.

As for Zeta playing in IT it will be decided by MN FA. I hope they do it soon coz if they do not participate Serbia has to appoint our team.

SCG Should play in WC with or without MN players. It was agreed beforehand though I doubt there is anything in written form (or could it be).

Legally the party that goes starts from the beginning, the party that stays is a successor of everything. I hope though the next championships will be first of Serbia (and not 61st coz it would not make any sense) and of course first of MN.

I'd be happy to answer any other questions.

I agree completely with Nick's post.

EDIT: Mathematically 0.4% is less then 2000 votes and 25000 are left unprocessed. So it is still possible in theory for things to turnaround. Highly unlikely to happen though as percentages have been stable throuout the night.

Author: ignjat63
Date: 22-05-2006, 11:09

"This is a bit off-topic, but it is the middle of the night , and buy a strange coincidence I am writing to a pianist (Madzar) who was originally from belgrade. and so I guess bert will forgive."

A small world indeed. My father and Madzar's were the best pals in college (economy we call it). I do not know the guy but he is one of our best and most tallented pianists (after his mother as his father is tone deaf). Anyway send me a personal message of how you know the guy. I'm very interested indeed.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Edgar Date: 22-05-2006, 11:10	Are these figures accurate? Area/population of Montenegro -> link Area: 13812 square km Population: 650575 That leaves Serbia with an area of 88538 square km and a population of 10181970.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Heero Date: 22-05-2006, 11:14	I'm very interested in what will happen with the national team. Will they split up for the Euro 2008 - qualifiers or will they still play these together? And if they split up, I assume they will put Montenegro in another group since Serbia's group already has 8 contestants? And which players will leave Serbia's team and become part of Montenegro?

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ignjat63 Date: 22-05-2006, 11:31	For now I can only say that Serbia should participate Euro2008 qualies as it was agreed that Serbia is a successor. I suppose not MN or UEFA will make problems now. I suppose BIH will want SCG disqualified from WC2006 now because they took third place in the qualification group. This will be on FIFA to decide. But that really should not happen. We shall see.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ignjat63 Date: 22-05-2006, 11:45 Edited by: ignjat63 at: 22-05-2006, 12:35	Edgar, the montenegrean data is just about right. But in SCG figures Kosovo is included. However Kosovo is not part of Serbia anymore but it is (was) part of SCG. So Kosovo people should not be counted as population of Serbia. According to 1991 census population of Serbia with Kosovo was 10.5 million whereas the population of Kosovo alone is about 1.9 million.

Author: isidromv
Date: 22-05-2006, 11:47

My opinion from outside is that SCG should play the WC. They qualified as a united country and it should be made clear that the team represents both countries. Even I think the process will not be finished before the WC, so they will still be a single country.

Serbia should replace SCG in Euro 2008 qualifiers, and Montenegro should be assigned to a group with 7 teams.

For next year's european club competitions, the teams qulaified via the combined league should play (from MN only one team in IT).

The coefficients of both countries should be recomputed based on the teams from each country in the last 5 years, and spots in 2007/08 season should be assigned to the new leagues to be played in 2006/07.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Heero Date: 22-05-2006, 12:08	I've found this Fifa-document, in which is said SCG will play WC no mather wath: http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/index/0,2527,115728,00.html?articleid=115728

Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 22-05-2006, 12:26
Edited by: Forza-AZ
at: 22-05-2006, 12:28

Serbia should replace SCG in Euro 2008 qualifiers, and Montenegro should be assigned to a group with 7 teams.
Most likely indeed Serbia will take the place of Serbia Montenegro in group 1. The draw already has been made at a time Montenegro was not a UEFA-member yet, so Montenegro can't be included any more in Euro 2008 qualifying. They will have to wait for WC 2010 qualfying to take part.

The coefficients of both countries should be recomputed based on the teams from each country in the last 5 years, and spots in 2007/08 season should be assigned to the new leagues to be played in 2006/07.
The only team from Montenegro that took part in 2001-2006 is Zeta in 2005/06. So you should recalculate the 2005/06 coefficient:

Crvena Zvezda 7 points
Partizan 5 points
OFK 1 point
Zeta 0 points

Serbia-Montenegro: 13/4 = 3,250
Serbia: 13/3 = 4,333
Montenegro: 0/1 = 0,000

So Montenegro will start with 0,000 no matter what. Splitting the coefficients will result in Serbia having a higher coefficient over 2001-2006: 21,082 in stead of 19,999. The will result in the 19th place for Serbia in stead of the 21st place Serbia-Montenegro now has. They pass Norway and Austria because of this and that will result in a change also, because 19th place has the Cupwinner direct in QR2 if the TH has already qualified and 21st has not.

Edit: Off course the access list will also change because we will have 1 extra country. It would seem logical that the country in 18th place will have all 3 teams in QR1 in stead of 2 in QR2 and 1 in QR1 now. But that still will result in the Cupwinners of countries 18 and 19 having their Cupwinner direct in QR2 if the TH already has qualified.

Author: ignjat63
Date: 22-05-2006, 13:22

I suppose by the end of the year or so Kosovo might most probably gain full independence. Since Kosovo borders with Albania and most of Kosovo populations are Albanians I suppose Kosovo will not be a separate country for long but will unite with Albania. So even if Kosovo becomes another member of UEFA it wont be for long.

I really cant imagine two Albanian countries existing without being united very soon.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: conscious Date: 22-05-2006, 13:25	But does it seem likely that Serbia authorities will let Kosovo go?

Author: thomas
Date: 22-05-2006, 13:28

Maybe I am wrong, bur Montenegro has just VOTED for independence, so it will still be some days or weeks till SCG will formerly splitt.

If they do before or during the WCT, a united team of both countries will take part, I am sure. There had been two similar cases of peacefully splitted countries: USSR qualified for ECT 1992 and took part as CIS, and CSFR started the qualification for WCT 1994, split during the qualification and finished as RCS (Representation of Czechs and Slovaks).

Author: ignjat63
Date: 22-05-2006, 13:35

Kosovo is already out of Serbia and Serbian authorities do not have any jurisdiction over it whatsoever.

But Kosovo was a part of SCG while SCG existed, independent of Serbia.

The reason why most Serbian politicians were for SCG is to keep Kosovo in SCG if not in Serbia.

But now Kosovo's status should be reconsidered as Kosovo is obviously not part of SCG any more.

What we reffer to as "International community" will finally decide the final status of Kosovo, which could logically be only full independence. Serbia has no say in it, which means if we complain (which we probably will) nobody would really care.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: thomas Date: 22-05-2006, 18:10	Does anyone know, which national symbols (flag, anthem) Serbia and Montengro will use in the WCT? I remember that CIS had a flag with the letters CIS and "Ode an die Freude" by Beethoven. And (OT, sorry), does anyone know, what RCS used in their qualifiers?

Author: ywann
Date: 22-05-2006, 18:34

@Thomas
I don't believe that the process of separation will be done that quick to influent WCT. It will take at least five or six weeks, and it is not likely that flags and anthems would change once the WCT has allready started.
That means that we (SCG) are going to use current flag (blue-white-red)(Serbian flag is red-blue-white, and new Montenegrean is red with yellow eagle at centre) and current anthem (which is being jeered for last ten years, because it is still same old communist Yugoslav anthem "Fellow Slavs").
This will be the last time you can hear it, because it will be changed very soon (although I am going to miss it

)

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ignjat63 Date: 23-05-2006, 09:30	This morning at 9 referendum comittee has published preliminary referendum results after counting all the votes. So Montenegro will be independent. Now a 3 day period starts for submitting official complaints. Each complaint must be solved in 24 hours period. So in 4 days these preliminary results will be final.

Author: UncleSam
Date: 23-05-2006, 17:18
Edited by: UncleSam
at: 23-05-2006, 17:21

The Serbia and Montenegro Football Association will split up on July 28.

Goalkeeper Dragoslav Jevric and striker Mirko Vucinic are the only two Montenegrin players in the 23-man World Cup squad.

Montenegro's soccer chief Dejan Savicevic, who strongly supported the drive for independence, told Reuters on Monday the team would use the 2008 qualifying timetable for friendly matches in a bid to build a side capable of reaching the 2010 World Cup finals in South Africa.

He also said he would support the unified team in the World Cup and Serbia in the Euro 2008 qualifying campaign.

Author: Tomo1s4
Date: 24-05-2006, 01:00

It is said that Montenegro wont be in Euro2008 qualifications since it still has to submit its membership to UEFA (and FIFA), but will most likely participate in quilifications for WC2010. Serbia alone will take part in quilifications for EURO2008 since it is legal successor according to our constitution. As for players, they will decide on their own which country they want to represent and alot of rumours are going on now and political games will probably be of some influence on where players will be playing.

As for Montenegrin clubs in europe next season its still a question. Zeta quilified for IT but ive read that Vojvodina will most likely take its place. These are still not confirmed informations. Also what clubs will participate in next years serbian league is still under question and i imagine that the same is with montenegrin league

They also announced that income from WC participation will be devided 75%-25% in favor of Serbia.

It was decided last december that the symbols and anthem and all other things will stay the same until the end of the WC, even if Montengro becouse independant. As for anthem i wont miss it :P Its about time that changed (about 15 years too late if you ask me).
Ilija Petkovic (coach) will be the first to represent two separate countries on WC.

All details will probably be done by end of july, maybe before.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Edgar Date: 24-05-2006, 10:45 Edited by: Edgar at: 24-05-2006, 10:46	From the SCG first division - what teams are from Montenegro (besides FK Zeta)? According to this article the new Serbian Super League will have 12 teams -> link

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 24-05-2006, 12:55 Edited by: Forza-AZ at: 24-05-2006, 12:55	These teams are from Montenegro: FK Zeta (5th) Buducnost Podgorica (14th and relegated) Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje (16th and relegated)

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: badgerboy Date: 24-05-2006, 13:41	So the logical outcome will be Zeta joining any new Montenegrin league - together with the club that would have been promoted from the current Crna Gora league. The highest two Serbian teams in the relegation zone being reprieved from relegation.

Author: Edgar
Date: 24-05-2006, 14:51
Edited by: Edgar
at: 24-05-2006, 14:51

It remains to be seen if 2 or 3 teams will be promoted from the second Serbian division.

With 4 rounds to go the top 5 looks like this:

Bezanija   72
Mladost    68
-------------
Cukaricki  65
CSK Pivara 64
Napredak   56

If 3 teams will be promoted then only Zemun (10th) will be reprieved. If only 2 get promoted, then FK Smederevo (11th) will also be reprieved.

As for Montenegro, does anyone know how many teams will their league have?

FK Zeta Golubovci
FK Buducnost Podgorica
FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje

Then there's the second division of Montenegro (10 teams):

With 1 round to go it looks like this:

Rudar      69
Sutjeska   53
Grbalj     50
Kom        49
Mogren     49
Petrovac   47
Zora       46
Decic Tuzi 46
Bokelj     32
Mornar Bar 32

I guess it's possible to form a first division with 10 teams: 3 from the former Serbia-Montenegro first division and 7 from the Montenegro second division.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ignjat63 Date: 24-05-2006, 15:02	edgar, too early to tell. at this point two pretty certain things are - First serbian league will have 12 teams - Zemun will most probably not be relegated Nothing can be said about future MN league yet with any certainty

Author: ignjat63
Date: 31-05-2006, 22:15

Today Referendum official committee has proclaimed final results of the referendum after reviewing all complaints. So it is official now: Montenegro will be independent. Probably this saturday (03 of June) will Montenegrean Assembly proclaim official independence.

Though Serbia is inheritor of everything there is a procedure - Serbian Assembly will have to proclaim independence of Montenegro, the end of SCG and also independence of Serbia. I do not know when this will happen.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: martinjt Date: 02-06-2006, 22:58	Eh? So if Serbia don't claim independence there would be a Montenegro state existing alongside a Serbia & Montenegro state?

Author: ignjat63
Date: 02-06-2006, 23:21
Edited by: ignjat63
at: 02-06-2006, 23:22

martinjt

I'm not a lawyer and I do not know why the precedures are so defined.Whatever Serbia does or does not do MN will be independent. It is important that Sebia gives such a proclamation because it means that Serbia recognizes Montenegro as an independent country and has no objections to its existance. I read today in the papers that MN will proclaim her independence tomorrow (saturday) and Sebia's assembly will recognize them sometime next week and in the process proclaim our own independence.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ignjat63 Date: 03-06-2006, 20:39	Five minutes ago Montenegrean assembly officially proclaimed independence based on referendum results and SCG is no more. Now Montenegro will start the process of international recognition. Sometime next week Serbian Assembly will recognize Montenegro officially.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: EFS Date: 06-06-2006, 23:01	The new league will have 12 teams : FK Buducnost Podgorica FK Sutjeska Niksic FK Zeta Golubovic FK Mogren Budva FK Rudar Plevlja FK Kom Podgorica FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje FK Grbalj Radanovici Petrovac Decic Tuzi Berana FK Mladost Podgorica

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 07-06-2006, 10:38	@EFS Will they use the same system as in Croatia and Serbia (next season): Full league (22 matches) and then split the league in 2 (a further 10 matches)?

Author: ignjat63
Date: 07-06-2006, 11:38

forza,

croatia is changing their system in 2006/2007 season as explained on their official site

http://www.prva-hnl.hr/1-propozicije.php

They will still have 12 team league but will play 33 matches 3x11 rounds. After first 22 rounds teams are going to get different Berger tables numbers according to their league standings. And the last 11 matches will be played home or away only.

Serbia will have the system as you explained.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 07-06-2006, 11:58	OK, so Croatia will have the same format as Denmark, Israel and Macedonia next season.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Edgar Date: 07-06-2006, 13:48 Edited by: Edgar at: 07-06-2006, 13:53	@EFS: is this official? Later edit: what will happen with Zemun and Smederevo?

Author: ignjat63
Date: 07-06-2006, 14:44

Unfortunatelly in Serbia impact of politics on football is great. Not from political institutions directly, but from politicians inside clubs' governing boards. Since Serbia is economically devastated (economic embargo of the 90s) and there is no money, many clubs think it wise to have some kind of political background protection. So there are always a lot of different interests to be satisfied.

In practice it means nothing is over untill fat lady sings. And she is still singing.

So untill it becomes official we will not know how many clubs the league will have, and what the format of the competition will be. So with Zemun and Smederevo.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: badgerboy Date: 07-06-2006, 14:56	Ignjat63 Do you know where rsssf.com gets it's Serbian info? They had a note that Zemun and Smederovo would escape relegation pretty much before the referendum votes had all been counted.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ignjat63 Date: 07-06-2006, 15:02	It was decided so before. But now that CG is really gone there will be pressures - "I want my club in First league", "Sorry not possible, not enogh spots", "Well so what expand the league", etc That is what I am talking about.A Serbian saying goes "It means...but it doesn't have to be..."

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Edgar Date: 12-06-2006, 14:51	Any updates?

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: ignjat63 Date: 12-06-2006, 14:55 Edited by: ignjat63 at: 12-06-2006, 15:00	None so far, WC is the only topic. EDIT: Couple of days ago Serbian 2nd league was finished (last round). It was said that Bezanija (name of a part of Belgrade) and Mladost Apatin will be First league members next year (Mladost actually means Juventus). That would imply 12 team league with Zemun and Smederevo not relegated. But nothing official yet.

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Edgar Date: 12-06-2006, 15:09	Thanks ignjat

Re: Referendum results in Montenegro
Author: Edgar Date: 16-06-2006, 12:06	This is 8 days old, but here it goes -> link