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Author: badgerboy
Date: 28-04-2006, 15:06

An update on one of my old topics but with the information presented in a slightly different way. The information will also mirror much of what is on Bert's qualification pages but again the method of presentation is different.

I'll start with the CL 3rd qualifying round - the most interesting to me. Who will be seeded, who might be and what are the issues that will affect those teams that are still waiting to find out?

First the list:

Champions League Third Qualifying Round 2006-07

Milan (1A) 129.020 1
Barcelona+ 124.818 - 127.006
Real Madrid (1AB) 119.818 - 120.006 1-2
Inter** (2A) 112.020 1-2
Juventus+ 107.020
Liverpool (1A) 105.950 - 106.139 2-3
Arsenal (1B[TH>) 101.950 - 104.139 2-4
Manchester Utd.** (2A) 100.950 - 101.139 2-4
Valencia (2AB) 94.818 - 95.006 3-5
Bayern Munich+ 80.960
Deportivo+ 76.818 - 77.006
Roma (1B) 76.020 3-6
Panathinaikos (1) 66.587 3-7
Schalke (1) 64.960 3-8
Ajax Amsterdam (1) 60.640 3-9
Celtic (2B[TH>) 60.023 3-9
Sevilla+ 58.818 - 61.006
Monaco+ 58.757
Lille (1) 54.757 3-10
Sporting (1) 54.533 3-11
Auxerre (2) 53.757 3-11
Benfica** (2) 51.533 3-11
Club Brugge (1) 49.981 4-12
Basel (1) 49.537 4-13
Marseille (3) 48.757 4-13
Bordeaux (4) 47.757 4-13
Steaua Bucharest (1) 46.381 4-14
Sparta Prague (1B) 44.769 4-15
Bremen (2) 43.960 4-15
Rangers (1) 43.023 4-16
Celta Vigo** (3AB) 42.818 - 43.006 4-16
CSKA Moscow*** (1AB) 42.504 5-17
Paris St Germain+ 41.757
Lens (5) 39.757 6-17
AEK Athens** (2) 39.587 6-17
Anderlecht (2) 38.981 7-17
Dynamo Kyiv*** (1AB) 36.777 7-18
Levski Sofia (1) 35.016 8-19
Shakhtor*** (2AB) 33.777 8-20
Slavia Prague (2B) 33.769 9-20
Galatasaray*** (1AB) 33.634 9-21
Hamburg** (3) 30.960 10-21
Rapid Bucharest (2) 30.381 11-21
Wisla Krakow (1) 29.104 11-22
Slovan Liberec**# (1A) 28.769 11-23
Fenerbahce*** (2AB) 28.634 12-24
Fiorentina** (2B) 28.020 13-24
Austria Wien**# (1AB) 27.723 14-25
Osasuna** (4AB) 24.818 - 25.006 15-25
Litex Lovech+ 24.016
Blackburn+ 23.950 - 24.139
Brondby (1) 23.593 16-26
Dinamo Bucharest**# (3)22.381 16-26
Sp. Moscow*** (2AB) 21.504 17-27
CSKA Sofia**# (2) 21.016 18-27
Tottenham** (3B[TH>) 20.950 - 21.139 19-27
Dinamo Zagreb**# (1) 20.647 20-28
Crvena Zvezda*** (1) 20.600 21-29
Hearts** (2) 20.023 22-29
Rennes** (6) 19.757 23-29
Maccabi Haifa*** (1) 19.108 24-30
Teplice (3B) 18.769 25-30
Standard Liege** (3) 17.981 25-30
Le Mans+ 16.757
Nice+ 16.757
FC Kobenhavn** (2) 16.593 26-30
Legia Warsaw** (2) 16.104 27-30
Debrecen (1) 13.840 28-31
Groningen** (2) 13.640 28-31
Artmedia (1) 13.070 29-32
National Bucharest+ 12.381
Valerenga*** (1) 11.921 29-33
(Romania)+ 10.381 [Sportul+, Cluj+, Politehnica+, Farul+, Pitesti+, Bistrita+>
Zurich** (2) 10.537 30-33
Djurgardens*** (1) 9.372 31-34
Mlada Boleslav** (4B) 8.769 32-34

I have included every team with a mathematical possibility of playing in QR 3 (excluding teams that will definitely be unseeded in QR1 & QR2).

***Means the named team has definitely qualified.
**Means the named team or one with a higher coefficient has definitely qualified.
+Means there is a purely mathematical possibility of the named team qualifying but I have deemed it so unlikely to actually happen that I have ignored it for all other purposes.
**#Means the named team or one with a higher coefficient has definitely qualified except for one of the "purely mathematical possibilities" I mentioned earlier.
The numbers in brackets after the team name refer to the team's ranking (of possible realistic qualifiers) from the country concerned. Where a country has two possible qualifiers they are noted AB, and only seperated into A and B where there are distinctive battles going on for the two spots.
The numbers at the end of the row are the possible position the named team would hold in the ranking list in the event of qualification.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 28-04-2006, 17:41

Some more information to go with the above listings.

First, the teams between the two lines are those that are still unsure of their seeding position. From CSKA at the top, who are most likely to end up on the right side of the line to Dinamo Bucharest at the bottom, who are not.

Given that, in most cases, only around three weeks remain in the domestic seasons around Europe, there are a surprising number of issues outstanding that will affect the list.

1. Spain. At least one Spanish side will be seeded. At the moment the second spot is held by Osasuna who would provisionally be unseeded. It is still possible for them to finish second (in which case both Spanish teams would be seeded) or outside the top four. Celta are the only team who could realistically take advantage of any Osasuna slip up. Osasuna are five points ahead of Celta with four to play. Osasuna play Real Madrid next and Valencia on the final day (both at home). They must also visit UEFA Cup chasing Atletico. Celta don't have it easy either though - a visit to La Coruna followed by a home match with Barca.

2. Italy. A straight fight for fourth between Fiorentina (provisionally unseeded) and Roma (seeded). Three points to Fiorentina at the moment. Roma have to go to Milan on the final day.

3. England/Scotland. Arsenal can win the CL, in which case seeded Celtic take a place in QR3 or they must overhaul Tottenham in fourth spot. Spurs have a four point lead but Arsenal have a game in hand. Spurs would definitely be unseeded. If Spurs pick up maximum points at home to Bolton and away at West Ham then they will just need to sit back and sweat on the CL final result. Arsenal have a winnable run of fixtures, away to Sunderland and Man City and home to Wigan. My guess the Spurs-Bolton match will be the key.

4. France - Rennes have come from nowhere to fourth since my last similar exercise over a month ago. They would be unseeded - all the other teams in contention seeded. Lille are in poll position, with Marseille the biggest dangers aside from Rennes. Lens and Auxerre both may have too much to do (five points to make up in three games). Lille have to go to Lens (6th) and Rennes (4th) with a home match against Champions Lyon in between. Marseille have to visit 7th placed Auxerre and second-placed Bordeaux and play nearly doomed Strasbourg in between. Wins for Lens and Auxerre in the next set of matches could make for an extremely tasty finish - even more so (if that's possible) if PSG can go to Rennes and turn them over.

5. Germany. Another one where the seeds are favoured - this time as unseeded Hamburg have a four point lead over Bremen in third. Schalke can catch Bremen but would also be seeded. Hamburg and Bremen will meet on the final matchday and Hamburg have two tough looking away fixtures before that (against on form Koln and UEFA Cup chasing Hertha).

6. Netherlands. Seeded Ajax hold a two-goal lead over Groningen after the play-off final first leg.

7. Greece. In theory AEK Athens could qualify and be unseeded but the rankings are such that they are almost certain to be seeded in any case. They have a two point advantage over Panathinaikos to sustain.

8. Belgium. The unseeded side - Standard - will hope to do better than the qualifying rounds but their defeat to leaders Anderlecht last week may have tipped the balance for the Championship in favour of the latter. Anderlecht do hve to visit fourth-placed Gent this weekend though (Standard also play them on the final day). Brugge are four points behind in third.

9. Scotland. Hearts (unseeded) are four points ahead of Rangers (seeded) and will hope to have qualification decided before their final day visit to Ibrox. They must play Champions Celtic next though.

10. Czech Republic. The battle is for second spot (Slovan are all but mathematically Champions). Following last nights victory for Mlada Boleslav over previously resurgent Sparta it looks more likely that second spot will be between two non-seeds - Teplice and Mlada. Slavia though would be only three points off second should they win their game in hand. Teplice would appear to have the marginally easier run-in.

11. Switzerland. Perhaps still a battle in name only. Basel (seeded) have a three point advantage over Zurich (unseeded) and a game in hand. Basel and Zurich do play on the final day but it should be all over by then.

12. Romania. Steaua's two games in hand give them a big advantage. Victory at home to Rapid this weekend would make their title defence even more certain - their remaining fixture list looks undaunting.

To tentatively predict the outcome of the above. Celtic (or Arsenal), Lille or Marseille, Bremen, Ajax, AEK, Basle and Steaua for the seeded (or nearly seeded) camp. Osasuna, Fiorentina, Standard, Hearts and Teplice for the non-seeds.

This would mean Galatasaray in as last seed and Slovan Liberec just miss out...

Author: Tano
Date: 28-04-2006, 18:47

13. Bulgaria. Levski leads by two point to CSKA Sofia and also have a game in hand. The only difficult game for Levski will be in the last round with Litex at home; CSKA has more difficult program. But still there is a chance hypothetically CSKA to battle for the first place. If CSKA wins \I hope not\ they will be unseeded for sure in CL Q3. Levski has a coefficient of over 35 points, so they have pretty good chances to be seeded in Q3 depending on the final standings in the national championships of the teams mentioned above.

Re: The battle to be seeded next season....
Author: MartinW Date: 29-04-2006, 08:46	@Bert I notice in your predicted CL seeding table you show in the group stage that Manchester Utd could be in minimum Pot 2 and maximum Pot 1. I do not think Man Utd can be in Pot 2 because they are at number 8 on the overall team ranking, and they cannot be replaced by the Title Holder because Barcelona and Arsenal are both already above Man Utd.

Re: The battle to be seeded next season....
Author: bert.kassies Date: 29-04-2006, 09:02	You are right. The CL 2006/07 seeding page is updated.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 29-04-2006, 12:15

Tano's additional information about Bulgaria is correct. I failed to include them in my list of outstanding issues because Levski are below the line of "definitely seeded" teams.

I have included them in my number of seeded teams if my tentative predictions prove correct though and would also assess them as extremely likely to be Champions. Ditto for Legia over Wisla a little further down my list.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 02-05-2006, 18:59

Some updated information.

Starting with QR1.

Champions League First Qualifying Round 2006-07

APOEL (1) 6.355 1
Domzale (1) 5.355 1-2
Gorica**# (2) 4.355 1-2
Maribor + 4.355
Publikum+ 4.355
Mypa-47*** (1) 3.433 2-3
Cyprus** (2) 3.355 3 [Apollon, Omonia>
Slovenia+ 3.355 [Koper, Lendava, Drava>
Vardar Skopje+ 2.760
Siroki Brijeg*** (1) 2.695 4
FH Hafnarfjordur*** (1) 2.595 5
Liepajas Metalurgs***(1)2.365 6
Serif Tiraspol*** (1) 2.255 7
Georgia** (1) 2.090 8 [Sioni Bolnisi, WIT Georgia>
Ekranas Panevezys*** (1)1.925 9
Birkirkara**# (1) 1.880 10
Rabotnicki**# (1) 1.760 11
Makedonija+ 1.760
Shakhtyor Soligorsk*** 1.457 12
Cork City*** 1.430 13
Elbasani**# 1.210 14
Tirana+ 1.210
Pyunik Yerevan*** 0.990 15
TVMK Tallinn*** 0.880 16
Sliema Wanderers+ 0.880
TNS*** 0.770 17
Linfield*** 0.770 18
Azerbaijan** 0.660 19 [Karvan, Neftchi, Baku, Inter Baku+>
Dudelange**# 0.605 20
Jeunesse Esch+ 0.605
Aktobe Lento*** 0.550 21
B36 Torshavn*** 0.550 22

Nothing much outstanding in this round as regards coefficient positions. Only a mathematical possibility that Birkirkara will not be Champions of Malta. None of the other ongoing battles for domestic titles will alter the seeding positions.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 02-05-2006, 19:11

QR2 is as follows:

Champions League Second Qualifying Round 2006-07

Basel (1) 49.537 1
Steaua Bucharest (1) 46.381 1-2
Sparta Prague+ 44.769
Rangers (1) 43.023 1-3
Dynamo Kyiv (1) 36.777 1-4
Levski Sofia (1) 35.016 1-5
Shakhtor Donetsk** (2) 33.777 1-5
Slavia Prague (1) 33.769 2-6
Galatasaray (1) 33.634 2-7
Rapid Bucharest (2) 30.381 2-7
Wisla Krakow (1) 29.104 2-8
Fenerbahce** (2) 28.634 2-8
Austria Wien (1) 27.723 3-9
Litex Lovech+ 24.016
Brondby (1) 23.593 3-10
Dinamo Bucharest (3) 22.381 3-10
Spartak Moscow*** (1) 21.504 3-11
CSKA Sofia**# (2) 21.016 4-11
Dinamo Zagreb**# (1) 20.647 5-12
Crvena Zvezda*** (1) 20.600 6-13
Hearts** (2) 20.023 7-13
Teplice (2) 18.769 8-13
FC Kobenhavn** (2) 16.593 8-13
Legia Warsaw** (2) 16.104 9-13
Debrecen (1) 13.840 10-14
Artmedia (1) 13.070 10-15
National Bucharest+ 12.381
Valerenga*** (1) 11.921 10-16
Zurich** (2) 10.537 11-16
Romania+ 10.381 [ Cluj, Politehnica, Farul>
Sportul Studentsc** (4) 10.381 12-16
Djurgardens*** (1) 9.372 13-17
Mlada Boleslav** (3) 8.769 14-17
Salzburg** (2) 8.723 15-17
Lokomotiv Sofia+ 8.016
APOEL (1) 6.355 16-18
Ruzomberok (2) 6.070 16-18
MTK Budapest (2) 5.840 16-18
Domzale (1) 5.355 16-19
Ujpest (3) 4.840 16-19
Fehervar** (4) 4.840 16-19
Rijeka+ 4.647
Gorica**# (2) 4.355 17-19
Maribor + 4.355
Publikum+ 4.355
Zilina+ 4.070
Spartak Trnava** (3) 4.070 18-19
Mypa-47*** (1) 3.433 19-20
Cyprus** (2) 3.355 20 [Apollon, Omonia>

Valerenga realistically need to hope that two from four of Artmedia, Debrecen and Salzburg NOT being Champions and Mlada Boleslav being second in the Czech Republic come about. A shock winner in Romania and/or a surprise collapse by Basel could also help them. Djurgardens don't care what happens in Romania or Switzerland but do need THREE of the four other events to happen if they want to be seeded.

Author: badgerboy
Date: 02-05-2006, 19:16

An update to QR3

Champions League Third Qualifying Round 2006-07

Real Madrid (1AB) 119.818 1
Inter*** (1A) 112.020 1-2
Liverpool (1A) 105.950 2-3
Arsenal (1B[TH>) 101.950 2-4
Manchester Utd.** (2A) 100.950 2-4
Valencia (2AB) 94.818 3-5
Bayern Munich+ 80.960
Roma (1B) 76.020 3-6
Panathinaikos (1) 66.587 3-7
Schalke (1) 64.960 3-8
Ajax Amsterdam (1) 60.640 3-9
Celtic (2B[TH>) 60.023 3-9
Sevilla (3AB) 58.818 3-9
Lille (1) 54.757 3-10
Sporting (1) 54.533 3-11
Auxerre (2) 53.757 3-11
Benfica** (2) 51.533 3-11
Basel (1) 49.537 4-12
Marseille (3) 48.757 4-12
Bordeaux+ 47.757
Steaua Bucharest (1) 46.381 4-13
Sparta Prague+ 44.769
Bremen (2) 43.960 4-13
Rangers (1) 43.023 4-14
Celta Vigo** (4AB) 42.818 4-14
CSKA Moscow*** (1AB) 42.504 5-15
Paris St Germain (4) 41.757 6-15
Lens (5) 39.757 6-15
AEK Athens** (2) 39.587 6-15
Anderlecht (1) 38.981 7-16
Dynamo Kyiv*** (1AB) 36.777 7-17
Levski Sofia (1) 35.016 8-18
Shakhtor*** (2AB) 33.777 8-19
Slavia Prague (1B) 33.769 9-20
Galatasaray*** (1AB) 33.634 9-21
Hamburg** (3) 30.960 10-21
Rapid Bucharest (2) 30.381 11-21
Wisla Krakow (1) 29.104 11-22
Slovan Liberec*** (1A) 28.769 11-23
Fenerbahce*** (2AB) 28.634 12-24
Fiorentina** (2B) 28.020 13-24
Austria Wien*** (1AB) 27.723 14-25
Osasuna** (5AB) 24.818 15-25
Litex Lovech+ 24.016
Brondby (1) 23.593 16-26
Dinamo Bucharest (3) 22.381 16-26
Sp. Moscow*** (2AB) 21.504 16-27
CSKA Sofia**# (2) 21.016 17-27
Tottenham** (3B[TH>) 20.950 18-27
Dinamo Zagreb**# (1) 20.647 19-28
Crvena Zvezda*** (1) 20.600 20-29
Hearts** (2) 20.023 21-29
Rennes** (6) 19.757 22-29
Maccabi Haifa*** (1) 19.108 23-30
Teplice (2B) 18.769 24-30
Standard Liege** (2) 17.981 24-30
Nice+ 16.757
FC Kobenhavn** (2) 16.593 25-30
Legia Warsaw** (2) 16.104 26-30
Debrecen (1) 13.840 27-31
Groningen** (2) 13.640 27-31
Artmedia (1) 13.070 28-32
National Bucharest+ 12.381
Valerenga*** (1) 11.921 28-33
Zurich** (2) 10.537 29-33
Romania+ 10.381 [Cluj, Politehnica, Farul>
Sportul Studentsc** (4) 10.381 30-33
Djurgardens*** (1) 9.372 31-34
Mlada Boleslav** (3B) 8.769 32-34
Salzburg** (2AB) 8.723 33-35

Author: badgerboy
Date: 02-05-2006, 19:23

CL Group Stage

Here I have assumed that - once all the various domestic issues are resolved - the highest ranked teams will then qualify from QR3.

Champions League Group Stage 2006-07

Milan*** (D1B) 129.020 1 D*
Barcelona*** (D1A) 124.818 2 D*
Real Madrid (D1B/Q1AB) 119.818 3 D*
Inter*** (Q1A) 112.020 3-4 Q1
Juventus*** (D1A) 107.020 4-5 D*
Liverpool*** (D1B/Q1#) 105.950 5-6 D*
Arsenal (DTH/Q1A) 101.950 6-7 D
Man. Utd.*** (D2B/Q1A) 100.950 6-8 D?/Q2
Valencia**# (D2B/Q2AB) 94.818 7-9 D?/Q3
Lyon*** (D1A) 89.757 8-10 D*
Porto*** (D1A) 87.533 9-11 D*
PSV Eindhoven*** (D1) 81.640 10-12 D*
Bayern Munich**# (D1A) 80.960 11-13 D*
Chelsea*** (D1A) 79.950 12-14 D*
Roma (Q1B) 76.020 13-15 Q4
Panathinaikos (Q1) 66.587 13-16 Q5
Schalke (Q2#) 64.960 13-16
Ajax Amsterdam (Q1) 60.640 13-17 Q6
Celtic** (DNTH/Q2A) 60.023 13-18 Q7
Sevilla (Q3AB) 58.818 14-19 Q8
Lille (Q1) 54.757 14-20 Q9
Sporting*** (D1B/Q#) 54.533 14-21 D*
Auxerre (Q2) 53.757 15-21
Benfica*** (D2B/Q1) 51.533 15-22 D?/Q10
Basel (Q1) 49.537 16-23 Q11
Marseille (Q3) 48.757 16-23
Bordeaux **# (D1B) 47.757 16-24 D*
Steaua Bucharest (Q1) 46.381 17-25 Q12
Bremen** (D1B/Q2) 43.960 17-26 D?
Olympiakos*** (D1) 43.587 18-27 D*
Celta Vigo** (Q4AB) 42.818 19-27
CSKA Moscow*** (Q1) 42.504 20-28 Q13
Paris St Germain (Q4) 41.757 21-28
Lens (Q5) 39.757 21-28
AEK Athens** (Q2) 39.587 21-28
Anderlecht (D1/Q1) 38.981 22-29 D
Dynamo Kyiv*** (Q1AB) 36.777 22-30 Q14
Levski Sofia (Q1) 35.016 23-31 Q15
Shakhtor*** (Q2AB) 33.777 23-32 Q16
Slavia Prague (Q1B) 33.769 24-33
Galatasaray*** (Q1AB) 33.634 24-34
Hamburg** (D2B/Q3) 30.960 25-35 D?/Q*
Rapid Bucharest (Q2) 30.381 26-35
Wisla Krakow (Q1) 29.104 26-36
Slovan Liberec*** (Q1A) 28.769 26-37
Fenerbahce*** (Q2AB) 28.634 27-38
Fiorentina** (Q2B) 28.020 28-38
Austria Wien*** (Q1AB) 27.723 29-39
Osasuna** (Q5AB) 24.818 30-39
Brondby (Q1) 23.593 31-39
Dinamo Bucharest (3) 22.381 31-39
Sp. Moscow*** (2AB) 21.504 31-39
CSKA Sofia**# (2) 21.016 32-39
Tottenham** (Q3A) 20.950
Rennes** (Q6) 19.757
Standard Liege** (Q2) 17.981 32 (if D) D?/Q*

Author: Ricardo
Date: 03-05-2006, 11:07

@badgerboy,
Interesting, but I don't understand why it is different from my view: I have Artmedia champion, Ujpest( NOT Debrecen), Salzburg 2nd and Teplice(NOT Boleslav) 2nd.
I have Valerenga seeded, Djurgarden not.
Possible changes:
Artmedia(seeded) -> Ruzomberok (6 matches, 1 point diff)
Ujpest (not seeded) -> Debrecen(seeded) (5 matches 3 points)
Salzburg(not seeded) -> Austria (seeded) (2 matches 4 points)
Teplice(seeded) -> Boleslav (not seeded) (2 matches 0 points)

Other far fetched possibilities are (total) collapses of Levski, Dinamo Zagreb and Basel and Rapid+Steaua Bucharest(though Swiss&Romania can't help Djurgarden)

Author: badgerboy
Date: 03-05-2006, 12:09

Ricardo

Hopefully the information I'm presenting isn't that different from anyone else's - just presented in a slightly different way (and even that's not guaranteed!).

The "prediction" bit was really an afterthought - my main plan was to list all the teams that could still qualify for European football and see the possible seeding scenarios.

I hadn't compared my stuff to your site previously. I look at ForzaAzs listings (which cover the scenario for the moment) and Bert's of course. I knew neither of them did a list of all the teams that might qualify and what effect this would have on the final seeding positions. Having looked at your site I don't think you have that list either (although you do have all the information necessary to complete it). To be honest I just enjoy collating the information anyway and since I'd done it thought I might as well stick it on here in case anyone was interested.

On a "technical point". I think you might have awarded the Albanian title to Elbasani a bit prematurely. Soccerway have them seven points clear with two to play but on UEFA.com it's six. The problem seems to be Elbasani's match before last, which Soccerway has as a 2-2 draw but UEFA has as a 3-2 win for Vllaznia. The Vllaznia and Elbasani websites also have a 3-2 result, so - although I usually trust Soccerway more (and only updated my own stats from UEFA because Soccerway was down on Monday) the 3-2 is most likely correct. Tirana are at home to Elbasani next so - if they win - it could be a nervous last week of the season.

Re: The battle to be seeded next season....
Author: executor Date: 03-05-2006, 12:54	On rsssf.com not only is 3-2 for Vllaznia, but also the scorers. It shows that the home team got a goal in 93 min. Maybe that explains the confusion.

Re: The battle to be seeded next season....
Author: Ricardo Date: 03-05-2006, 20:04	Djurgardens chances are rising! Artmedia just lost, leaving Ruzomberok now on top of the league and that means Djurgarden is seeded!